BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

  1. Question @ #3080 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 8:45 pm

    Grimace,

    Good to see you posting. I plan to put in my guess for ALP seats as whatever WB projects after the first Newspoll of the year.

    It’s my way of plating it safe. I think the polls are well under the disaster this election will be for the Libs 🙂

    An unwanted promotion has me working much harder than I’m happy with. I’m on holidays at the moment and enjoying the south west of WA.

  2. How predictable, i said that the RWNJ’s would get upset and up pops Earlwood. How are those utility shares coming along mate? You say centrist, (is there even such a thing) I say Grouper. Whatever, only a cigarette paper separates you from those Tories that you keep on going on about. My bet is that you would be supporting them yourself, only you speak in the wrong accent, went to the wrong school, work in the wrong job and live in the wrong suburb. You are more to be pitied than reviled!

  3. Steve777

    I’m not sure this one still holds.

    “Labor does better in polls than elections.”

    It didn’t in 2016, when there also wasn’t a “narrowing” (movement to the Libs in the polls during the campaign).

  4. Bryon @ #3090 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 10:56 pm

    If the shareholder is liable for tax at a rate higher than company tax, then they will effectively pay additional tax for the difference on the tax rates for the income from the dividend.

    Maybe they will, but what they actually should do is pay tax on the entire dividend received, as personal income. Because that’s what it is.

    So a profit has been made, tax has been paid and then the profit is distributed amongst the owners.

    No. A shareholder is not an owner. The business is one entity, and the shareholder another.

    The business earns a profit, and pays tax on that profit. It then takes whatever’s left after paying that tax, and distributes it to shareholders as dividends. The shareholder receives their dividend as income, and then pays taxes on it as personal income.

    Why should they pay tax again?

    Because that’s how tax works. It applies when money changes hands from one entity to another. The business and its shareholders aren’t the same entity.

    Otherwise why should anyone pay GST when the money they’re using for the purchase has already been taxed when they earned it?

    A purist approach would be to rule that folk can reduce their taxable income by the proportion of the dividend that is tax paid

    I think the purist approach is that you can reduce your taxable income by unreimbursed costs you’ve personally incurred in earning it. So if you had to pay a fee to your brokerage in order to acquire your shares, that’s deductible. A company you invest in paying its fair share of taxes, as it’s legally required to do, is not. You can’t deduct a “cost” that you didn’t pay and were never liable to pay in the first place.

    Or rather you can (currently, under this BS scheme), but you really shouldn’t be able to. Legally.

  5. ScoMo will be angry…..lol
    Before the start of the A League match last night in Melb there was a large citizenship cermony held on the halfway line……..it isn’t Australia Day until the 26th…..will ScoMo take their citizenship away because they’re not a real Aussie if it wasn’t done on the 26th……lol

  6. Grimace,

    Nothing says relaxation like collating the ALP seat count 🙂

    Steve777,
    Another thing not on your list.

    The L-NP are a laughing stock (even with the CPG).

  7. Pegasus @ #3053 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 7:23 pm

    The Greens policy platform: https://greens.org.au/platform/redistribution:

    If everyone paid their fair share of tax, we’d all get a fair go at living a decent life.

    Our economic plan is based on a few simple premises:

    That a strong economy is a sustainable economy, built on a healthy environment;

    That it’s the shape of our economy, not simply its size that determines our nation’s wealth; and

    That our economy should work for us, not the other way around.

    For decades both Liberal and Labor governments have taken millions of dollars in corporate donations and in return, they’ve given away billions of dollars to corporations and left big loopholes in our tax system, to the point where 1 in 3 of the biggest corporations pays no tax at all.

    That’s not good economic management. That’s economic injustice. But it doesn’t have to be this way.

    Being a good economic manager should mean that your plan works for people and communities, not solely for enormous private profit. It means you share the enormous wealth in our society by prioritising investment in public services for everyone – in world class accessible social services, education, healthcare and affordable homes.

    Our plan to make our economy work for all of us, and put billions of dollars back into public services

    I’m amazed Peg posted this, what a stemming pile of nothing.

    It’s embarrassing! 😆

  8. grimace @ #3086 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Oh dear, it seems ScoMo’s brainfart about the location of the Australian Embassy is about to have some real world consequences for us:

    Bali bombings: Indonesia reviews Abu Bakar Bashir’s release after Morrison’s request
    PM urges president Joko Widodo to show respect for Australia over the planned early prison release of alleged mastermind

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/22/bali-bombings-indonesia-reviews-abu-bakar-bashirs-release-after-morrisons-request?fbclid=IwAR3LoS2sO2Mk97-W2ISU0l6xXsVI2eo6E8UNwmJNB9cBPKlrLxZx1lrj80Y

    Yep, it’s something this Government has major problems with.

    You earn respect through your own actions Prime Minister.

    By the way how’s the trade deal with them going?

  9. Barney in Go Dau @ #3108 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 9:16 pm

    Pegasus @ #3053 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 7:23 pm

    The Greens policy platform: https://greens.org.au/platform/redistribution:

    If everyone paid their fair share of tax, we’d all get a fair go at living a decent life.

    Our economic plan is based on a few simple premises:

    That a strong economy is a sustainable economy, built on a healthy environment;

    That it’s the shape of our economy, not simply its size that determines our nation’s wealth; and

    That our economy should work for us, not the other way around.

    For decades both Liberal and Labor governments have taken millions of dollars in corporate donations and in return, they’ve given away billions of dollars to corporations and left big loopholes in our tax system, to the point where 1 in 3 of the biggest corporations pays no tax at all.

    That’s not good economic management. That’s economic injustice. But it doesn’t have to be this way.

    Being a good economic manager should mean that your plan works for people and communities, not solely for enormous private profit. It means you share the enormous wealth in our society by prioritising investment in public services for everyone – in world class accessible social services, education, healthcare and affordable homes.

    Our plan to make our economy work for all of us, and put billions of dollars back into public services

    I’m amazed Peg posted this, what a stemming pile of nothing.

    It’s embarrassing! 😆

    If that’s the Greens tax policy, I’d suggest they have a lot of work to do.

  10. In WA most of the power assets are in State hands though the gas network was privatised by Richard Court. Water remains a public utility. Public transport and the ports remain in State ownership. Most of the State hospitals are State-run, though Barnett contracted-out the running of Midland and Joondalup hospitals.

    Broadly speaking, WA Labor is opposed to the privatisation of State services and State assets. This is certainly a position I adhere to, though I’m by no means unusual in this. WA Labor at the individual membership and union levels are very strongly united against privatisations.

    There are a few exceptions to public ownership in the energy sector, most notably where the resource majors also produce all their own electricity. This is significant. Rio, for example, is responsible for 11% of WA’s GDP and a similarly large slice of its energy production and GHG emissions. This is an issue for WA – for climate policy and for industrial policy.

  11. Credlin puts Sky gig first

    12:00am ROSIE LEWIS

    Sky News presenter Peta Credlin has left the door open to a future political career but will not contest the upcoming election.

  12. Along comes “smithy”, the blogger formerly known as “aunt”, astride her green steed, with slip showing declaring in a few octaves above his normal gravel “PVO’s declared”
    Rides off to thd sound of “sweet talkin’ woman”.
    Snowflakes stands aloft with “gone with the wind’ empirical delight and declares “i knew you’d come smithy”!
    The scene pans out to a steed with wings as it moves towards the ” fairy land”, the balance of power land, we own the left land……………..
    The entire cast board a bus owned by a recently privatised company. The work of another Green/LNP alliance.
    I do luv da cricket!

  13. Has anyone been following the yellow vests in france. A quick google search tells me that there is a lot we are not getting here. obviously both sides slant reports but I have rrad ranges for protesters from 7,000-80,000 last weekend.

    Far more serious is I have read that 10 people have died and 17 have been blinded. OK that is probably an exaggeration however the french minister admits that 4 people have serious eye injuries and may lose the sight in one eye. So following the time honoured approach of splitting the difference, we probably have a reality of 10 plus injuries of which 6 or so are serious enough to cause blindness. That seems a helluva lot. I cannot see this ending well.

  14. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/jan/22/us-politics-donald-trump-latest-live-updates-government-shutdown

    A new survey of 760 registered voters from Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling, shows voters prefer any of seven likely Democratic candidates for president in the 2020 election over Donald Trump.

    In the poll, Trump trails Joe Biden 53-41, Bernie Sanders 51-41, Kamala Harris 48-41, Beto O’Rourke 47-41, Elizabeth Warren 48-42, and Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand each 47-42.

    And….

    Kamala Harris raises $1.5m for 2020 election

    In the first 24 hours after announcing she would run for president, Kamala Harris had raised $1.5m from 38,000 people, according to the Wall Street Journal:

    The California Democrat saw a burst of $1 million in contributions in the first 12 hours after her appearance on ABC’s “Good Morning America” and the simultaneous release of an online video, her campaign said, adding that the average donation was about $37.

    Those initial donation numbers are competitive with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’s 2016 presidential campaign kickoff. His team said at the time that he raised $1.5 million from 35,000 donors in the first 24 hours after his April 30, 2015, announcement. Mr. Sanders, who ultimately raised 85% of his $238 million in increments of $200 or less, is weighing another presidential run.

    Harris, the daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica, launched her campaign on Monday – America’s Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday – in an appearance on ABC’s Good Morning America.

    “Let’s do this, together. Let’s claim our future. For ourselves, for our children, and for our country,” Harris , 54, said in a campaign video that was released to coincide with her appearance on the morning television show.

  15. The EU has injected further pressure into the Brexit talks by confirming that it will enforce a hard border on the island of Ireland in the event of a no-deal Brexit, despite the risk it would pose to peace.

    In comments that proved highly uncomfortable for Dublin, Jean-Claude Juncker’s chief spokesman told reporters in Brussels that it was “pretty obvious” that border infrastructure would be necessary if the UK were to leave without a deal.

    The Putinocratic No-Deal-Brexiteers will provoke sectarian violence in Northern Ireland…

  16. 3z @ #3056 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 11:24 pm

    So Pegasus is it Labor that’s responsible for all inequality now is it?

    Considering your Greens have utterly failed to deliver on a Newstart increase besides lamely carping on about it, surely they shoulder some of the blame.

    And of course, calling Labor is the lesser of two evils is only slightly more clever than the tired “Labor and Liberal are just the same” parroted by tired Greens everywhere.

    Call whoever you want evil, but for me, supporting a party that makes grandiose promises to society’s most marginalised and does nothing to fulfil them – indeed does not even bother to attempt to do so – isn’t exactly what I’d call good.

    The Greens, as a party by and for an upper middle class inner-city elite, serve only to assuage this demographic’s social conscience, while ensuring through their inaction that it’s priveleges are entrenched.

    For anyone who doesn’t read the late night comments. This is a cracker. So true.

  17. @peg

    “So, do you disagree with zoomster’s view which she has expressed many times wtte good riddance to those alp members who have left the party and joined the Greens, the Greens can have them?”

    I absolutely agree with zommster’s view. While being a socialist is fine or being a centrist is also equally fine there is no place in the ALP for ratbaggery. Good riddance to bad rubbish I say.

  18. “The Greens, as a party by and for an upper middle class inner-city elite, serve only to assuage this demographic’s social conscience, while ensuring through their inaction that it’s priveleges are entrenched.”

    Just like their parents just love a charity do: it assuage’s their conscience for their life long commitment to tax minimisation and avoidance.

  19. Speaking of bad rubbish:

    “How predictable, i said that the RWNJ’s would get upset and up pops Earlwood. How are those utility shares coming along mate? You say centrist, (is there even such a thing) I say Grouper. Whatever, only a cigarette paper separates you from those Tories that you keep on going on about. My bet is that you would be supporting them yourself, only you speak in the wrong accent, went to the wrong school, work in the wrong job and live in the wrong suburb. You are more to be pitied than reviled!”

  20. Andrew_Earlwood @ #3120 Wednesday, January 23rd, 2019 – 6:41 am

    @peg

    “So, do you disagree with zoomster’s view which she has expressed many times wtte good riddance to those alp members who have left the party and joined the Greens, the Greens can have them?”

    I absolutely agree with zommster’s view. While being a socialist is fine or being a centrist is also equally fine there is no place in the ALP for ratbaggery. Good riddance to bad rubbish I say.

    ‘Ratbaggery’ – cheering on a duopoly govt that’s delivered a polluted environment, a divided society, an entitled society, cruelty to oppressed asylum seekers, a crushed indigenous culture, a culture of war, a culture of harmful religious faith…

    Now, who are the clever ones… ?

  21. Mundine?

    Gerard Henderson’s son-in-law. Labor rat (ha-ha Bill Shorten). Not Schultz. Good bloke. Indigenous.

    All pretty compelling reasons, youse’d have to admit.

  22. @Andrew_Earlwood: Maybe Elizabeth of York believed Henry’s assertion that he never killed the Princes? Or perhaps, the high degree of gender separation enforced in that time (especially among noble children) meant that she had little emotional attachment to her brothers? Blood was notoriously not thicker than water during the Wars of the Roses, after all.

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