The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.
M L and Goll,
I agree. I would be happy for franking credits to be abolished. But ALP policy is that Franking credits remain as a 30% discount to people who pay enough tax. Rich people.
It is worse than regressive.
Very ‘liberal’ of you grimace
The Greens policy platform: https://greens.org.au/platform/redistribution:
Frankly, I’d like to see the end of franking credits, too.
Actually, the convolution of Franking credits is a Paul Keating thing.
So Pegasus is it Labor that’s responsible for all inequality now is it?
Considering your Greens have utterly failed to deliver on a Newstart increase besides lamely carping on about it, surely they shoulder some of the blame.
And of course, calling Labor is the lesser of two evils is only slightly more clever than the tired “Labor and Liberal are just the same” parroted by tired Greens everywhere.
Call whoever you want evil, but for me, supporting a party that makes grandiose promises to society’s most marginalised and does nothing to fulfil them – indeed does not even bother to attempt to do so – isn’t exactly what I’d call good.
The Greens, as a party by and for an upper middle class inner-city elite, serve only to assuage this demographic’s social conscience, while ensuring through their inaction that it’s priveleges are entrenched.
Morrison’s Capt Cook re-enactment that isn’t a re-enactment was met with widespread derision and embarrassment at work today. And I couldn’t help but note Frydenberg on the news tonight was attempting to look more ‘prime ministerial’, clearly in an effort to differentiate himself from the Prime Muppet currently in the job.
Libs are positioning for the leadership post 2020 election. With any luck neither Dutton nor Abbott will be there.
Question
Totally agree
It is politics you have to decide what you think is important and can be done, you can’t do everything and even if you could you can’t do everything at once.
There is some little buzzfeed journo, Josh something, who considers himself a guru on the NBN. He is forever going on and on and on about how the ALP haven’t promised to just magically make everything fibre to the premises on the first day. Elections matter. Votes matter. Australia voted for a shit slow internet and that is what we deserve. Sure Labor should look to improve it and get rid of all the copper as soon as possible. But you’d have to be a pretty stupid buzzfeed punk to expect you can just ignore six years of Govt and expect everything to be made better as if we didn’t have Abbbott, Turnbull and Morrison as PM.
The Greens are all care, no responsibility. It has always been the case, and is likely to be so in the future.
“So, Labor’s masthead @ https://www.alp.org.au – A Fair Go for Australia: standing up for middle and working Australia – is not a slogan?”
Oh, you need a slogan of some sort to hang a campaign on. What the Libs have never twigged too is that you actually need more than that to be an actual Govt. ALP under Shorten has obviously learned that lesson well. 🙂
Parramatta Moderate @ #3045 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 8:12 pm
What’s that word the L/NP are fond of using after they’ve won an election and want to enact legislation, starts with an ‘M’…
That’s right, MANDATE.
Yeah and he still supports it.
In an economy where investment was very constrained or non-existent and you needed to drive investment, it makes some sense. In the current environment where capital is circling the globe in multibillion dollar globs desperate for something to invest in, not so much.
PvO
https://www.perthnow.com.au/opinion/peter-van-onselen-greens-robbed-on-policy-ng-b88740270z
Wow you’d have to be pretty desperate to be citing PvO, intelligent people have blocked him and resent his moronic stuff showing up in front of our eyeballs.
This is particularly f*cking stupid. If he wasn’t a complete waste of time, someone should remind him of the PRRT and that between the PRRT and the MRRT everything would have been covered. Instead the LNP and morons like PvO prefer to give away national resources for the lowest possible price when any sensible person would want the highest possible price.
“It is politics you have to decide what you think is important and can be done, you can’t do everything and even if you could you can’t do everything at once.”
True, but if the Greens took that quite reasonable attitude, what would they have to campaign on??
WWP,
To be clear, I support the ALP, I think their policy mix is good on the whole, but their policy on franking credits is worse than regressive.
In terms of retail politics, the convolution of franking credits will mean they have no problem selling it.
Well they’d stick to destroying action on climate change with the LNP, you know what they are good at. Perhaps they’d have joint au pair initiatives where the laws of the land are waived if you are a mate of the LNP or the greens.
Late night cricket has started on PB.
Thank you one and all for your engagement. Adieu.
Goll: “Abolishing franking credits is a decision based on the premise that those receiving the benefits of franking credits dont vote Labor anyway”
The largest beneficiaries of franking credits are workers with super in industry super funds (it emerges that retail super funds have been stealing their members’ franking credits!). The scheme enables industry funds to reduce their tax payments to the considerable benefit of their members. This may not be the best approach to that aim, but it is at least a legitimate aim (as opposed to Costello’s idea of paying people to stop working). This (of course) stays in full under the ALP proposal.
What needs to be removed is Costello’s asininity, which amounts to the introduction of a second currency (technically a fairly serious crime, in fact). The principle that the tax office does not make net payments to natural persons is fundamental to economic management (supposedly Costello’s area of expertise) and needs to be restored; the alternative is a deviant economics driven by by tax arrangements rather than output or income.
I tend to agree with you. But Bill is going very softly very quietly, not doing a Hewson, not even trying to do a Hewson but right. I think almost all of their tax policy is pretty soft and overly cautious. So I think we are agreeing. Just think the US is seriously considering a top marginal rate of 70%, the world is changing, trickle down is being abandoned by all thinking people, I think strong brave leadership would be rewarded. The labor brains trust obviously thinks zero leadership ‘managerial’ style slightly better than scomo is the way to go.
This transfer could be done more effectively in other ways, and I have some sympathy for this kind of measure.
phoenixRed:
Your favourite New York Congress member was on Stephen Colbert recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2f4gMQd_9Hs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8ZeWDEBzoc
WWP @ 11:33pm – You’re right up there with moronic statements.
Doesn’t take much for you to go ballistic.
Cognitive dissonance does that to a person.
It is telling that one needs to resort to an almost year old opinion piece by none other than Peter van Onselen to build a case for the fairy tale of the Greens forcing major political parties to do things they would otherwise never countenance.
That it relies on the foolish notion that political parties – other than the saintly Greens of course – operate entirely independent of their membership and voter base, is enough to dismiss this fiction.
Worse though is that it proves the fact that the Greens will never shy from taking full credit for the hard work of others: the NGOs, community organisations and individuals whose years of campaigning is met with the Greens jumping in at the last moment to take all the glory, despite that party never taking any meaningful action on anything.
Im in Busselton, WA, about 250km south of Perth. Its been pouring with rain since about 4 and was so heavy during Bill Shorten’s town hall that I couldn’t hear what was being said. Tomorrow is forecast to be a miserable day too.
3z
Hate will eat you from the inside.
WWP,
You got me there. I’m not sure which is the best way to go. Crash through or incremental? The way carbon pricing worked out has me thinking perhaps incremental is the way to go.
Also, unless the ALP owns the senate I’m not sure the Franking stuff will get up. It definitely wouldn’t get up if they wanted to abolish it. Perhaps the Libs will wave it through if it doesn’t affect the rich?
Of course, whenever PvO pens an article panning the Greens, it will be posted here with glee.
Grimace,
Good to see you posting. I plan to put in my guess for ALP seats as whatever WB projects after the first Newspoll of the year.
It’s my way of plating it safe. I think the polls are well under the disaster this election will be for the Libs 🙂
Pegasus @ #3064 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 11:28 pm
So you agree that the Greens support for super profits tax for miners and other industries.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/02/super-profits-tax-for-miners-and-buffett-rule-on-greens-tax-agenda
Oh for some rain and relief from the overwhelming humidity!
grimace:
Please send some of that rain this way! We desperately need it.
Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep
Welcome to the Poll Bludger Federal Election Seat Count Sweep. Life has calmed down for me and its time for a much delayed update to the Sweep.
If you would like to join email your prediction for the number of seats that Labor will win to sjapplin@hotmail.com. Your email will be deleted after your prediction is recorded with my apologies in advance to anyone inadvertently caught by the spam filter. I’ll try to keep track of any predictions posted in the thread if you’d prefer not to email me, without a guarantee it’ll be included.
The rules of the competition are:
• Your seat count prediction must be an integer
• All forms of cheating and capitalising on insider knowledge are encouraged
• Your first prediction is final
The prize is gloating rights.
Name__________Labor
Toorak Toff __________71
Davidwh__________74
Steve777__________80
Jenauthor__________81
Tricot__________81
Bennelong Lurker__________82
SandgroperWA__________82
Torchbearer__________82
Player One__________83
BH__________84
Edward Boyce__________84
Max__________84
C@tmomma__________84
Lizzie__________84
Gareth__________84
JPH__________85
Sonar__________85
Steve davis__________85
Hugoaugogo__________85
Imacca__________86
J341893__________86
Outside Left__________86
Taz__________86
Confessions__________87
A Different Michael__________87
Kambah Mick__________87
The Silver Bodgie__________87
Lord Haw Haw of Arabia__________87
A R__________88
JimmyD__________88
Sproket__________88
A R__________88
Douglas and Milko__________89
BK__________89
Sohar__________89
Left E__________89
John Reidy__________89
Mari__________89
Quasar__________89
D_money__________89
Sgh1969__________89
Bert__________89
Harry “Snapper” Organs__________90
Onebobsworth__________90
Swamprat__________91
Poroti__________91
Bilko__________92
Pica__________92
Terminator__________92
Whisper__________92
Socrates__________93
Ausdavo__________93
Mavis Smith__________94
Yaba__________94
Jack Aranda__________94
Briefly__________94
Matt31__________94
ItzaDream__________94
Upnorth__________94
Nswtcsd__________95
Booleanbach__________95
Don__________95
Adrian__________96
Libertarian Unionist__________97
Dan Gulberry__________98
Burgey__________98
Asha Leu__________99
Guytar__________100
ajm__________100
Puffytmd__________100
Golly__________101
Fozzie Logic__________102
Grimace__________105
Antonbruckner11__________106
Andrew_Earlwood__________127
“Doesn’t take much for you to go ballistic”
It is just passion my friend passion. It is what drives good politics. You must love it, and love good policy. Passion is what we’ve most lacked since Keating. We need much much more not less. Yeah it might be cool being dispassionate, above politics but it gives you Trump, Abbott etc.
PvO claims the nazis were socialists, is smacked around the park, doubles down and then throws a tanty saying people were being nasty to him (they weren’t they were telling him he was wrong, and he was). PvO is consistent in being a very strong ‘central’ LNP supporter, with the addition of occasional ‘pox on both houses’ pieces (like the one you quoted from) to trick people into considering him balanced and reasonable. He is neither.
So cognitive dissonance is a big concept, care to tell me exactly what cognitive dissonance you’ve detected in me. I’d be fascinated. Was teasing out a couple of areas with some friends over the weekend, perhaps more a dissonance between my intellectual position and my emotional reaction to a particular element of blissful matrimony, but still always good to have a look inside and see what you can improve in your head and your heart, and always a delight if you can improve and align your head and your heart. Passion my friend. Passion.
Oh dear, it seems ScoMo’s brainfart about the location of the Australian Embassy is about to have some real world consequences for us:
Bali bombings: Indonesia reviews Abu Bakar Bashir’s release after Morrison’s request
PM urges president Joko Widodo to show respect for Australia over the planned early prison release of alleged mastermind
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/22/bali-bombings-indonesia-reviews-abu-bakar-bashirs-release-after-morrisons-request?fbclid=IwAR3LoS2sO2Mk97-W2ISU0l6xXsVI2eo6E8UNwmJNB9cBPKlrLxZx1lrj80Y
Question @ #3049 Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019 – 10:21 pm
Given that the 32.5% tax bracket kicks in at $37,000, it’s not just rich people who will benefit.
Though I agree, best to abolish them altogether. Virtually no other developed Western nation has this sort of scheme. Even the United States knows better.
Not by me, I blocked him on twitter, and don’t read his articles. I think I’m way ahead from this choice, other than the odd surprise where is asserts nazis were socialists, there is nothing of value or insight in his stuff.
WWP
Good, we have discovered we have something in common, though I didn’t doubt it.
Though I express my passion in a loving, gentle and kind way.
I’d join the 86 club Grimace. Would have lent to 85 but that already had a very deep following.
Sweet dreams to one and all.
The company pays tax on it’s profits. If they do not pay tax they cannot distribute franking credits. Hence all franking credits represent tax that has been collected and is in consolidated revenue.
If the shareholder is liable for tax at a rate higher than company tax, then they will effectively pay additional tax for the difference on the tax rates for the income from the dividend. If they are on a lesser rate they get a credit to offset against other income and if taxable income is low enough they can currently get a ‘cashback’.
So a profit has been made, tax has been paid and then the profit is distributed amongst the owners. Why should they pay tax again?
But if they don’t pay tax, then why should the government refund the tax they collected from the company?
A purist approach would be to rule that folk can reduce their taxable income by the proportion of the dividend that is tax paid (noting that dividends can be partially franked i.e. 50% or 70%). But no credits. However that would mean that those on higher tax rates got more benefit than those on lower rates. So allowing the application of credits is fairer.
Until people arrange their affairs to take advantage of the rule.
Changing the rules to stop refunds is a politically expensive stop gap measure. Well off folk who are abusing the credits will just restructure. Someone who has a sole retirement income from $500k of bank shares will lose $10k of income and probably end up being eligible for a pension top up. So savings will be much less than what they think.
The core issue is allowing structures that let folk split and hold income in trusts.
It can be very effective, the loving gentle and kind way, like the native American, in the moment. But within days the MAGA hat boys had redefined reality and got out on top. Sometimes, in politics, you need more than niceness and light.
I don’t think the mega rich, the Putins and Murdochs are going to be seduced into a newer fairer world, they aren’t going to pay workers fairly, they aren’t going to lie back and pay taxes.
Because they are two separate legal entities. When you have two separate legal entities they are supposed to be taxed on their individual profit / income. My plumber doesn’t get a refund of the tax I’ve paid in the money I pay him, because it would be absurd. The individual getting a credit for the tax paid by the company is just as absurd. In fact it would probably be easier to defend my plumber getting a credit than an investor.
And to you.
Expat back at 9:21PM: “Steve777 really 81 seats? Are you anticipating an effective Lib campaign/narrowing? If election were held today surely ALP would be pushing 90 if not more i reckon…”
I am expecting a Kevin07-sized victory. I explained my reasons yesterday:
-The coming scare-smear-disinformation campaign.
-Most of the media and nearly all the money are in the Government’s corner.
– Giveaway Budget, dodgy as all getout but will not be questioned in mainstream media
-Unlike Kevin07 or Hawke83, Shorten is unpopular (not with me).
-Labor does better in polls than elections.
-The best Labor has done since 1946 is Hawke 83 (2PP 53.2%, for 75/125 seats, equivalent to 90/150).
– In 1983 and 2007, massive poll margins of 2PP 55+ were whittled away to comfortable wins of about 53.
Was the 127 seat prediction made when Dutton was a chance at leader?
It’s certainly heroic. But possibly not enough to get me campaigning in Goldstein.
Surely not.
https://www.politicususa.com/2019/01/21/the-white-house-busted-photoshopping-trump-pics-to-make-his-fingers-bigger.html
First there was Scott with his pristine white sneakers, now there’s Trump with his fat fingers!
Me too. Except one should never underestimate Democrat capacity for own goals.
ratsak says:
Tuesday, January 22, 2019 at 4:29 pm
The Cook stuff is harmless idiocy Fulvio.
Pissing off your own members in a marginal seat for a nobody like Mundine is suicidal idiocy. It won’t just be the few Libs on the ground in Gilmore that will be pissed off. Every member of Scott Robinson’s partyroom has just had yet another indisputable proof that he’s going to fuck up the campaign. They won’t tear him down (probably), but deep down they’re wanting to.
So many blunders, so little time. The Lib membership will be ready for surrender rather than for a fight. There’s very reason for them to struggle. Even if they were to win the election, they would be saddled with Morrison for the indefinite… The whingers whinge about Shorten. But who in their right mind would choose Morrison!