Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

In the first new poll of the year, both major parties are up on the primary vote, yet their leaders’ disapproval ratings have shot upwards.

Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.

As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.

The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,042 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Clem, all I have ever said is that it is nationalist, not crypto fascist. Your explanations seem to tilt more to the latter.

    [I do accept that the subtext of my opinion tilts that way also. I must say it suddenly gives me a strange sense of pride about how little damage Pauline Hansen has managed by comparison]

  2. When a British building labourer is being undercut by a Polish worker and he cannot find work, that is not nationalism mate, that is just basic survival. British unskilled workers are not going to Poland for a job, because the pay rates are too low and the conditions so poor. Now this is happening in Britain. it’s also happening in the building trade here. My mate is a brickie, he used to work regularly on Saturdays and get penalty rates for doing so. Now his boss has Burmese workers. 357 visas…skilled workers apparently. Now he never gets called in on Saturdays, the Burmese do… the reason… he pays them a flat $50 a day to work. Nothing to do with racism, or nationalism, it’s just about shithead exploitative employers taking the piss and running down wages and conditions.

  3. clem attlee @ #2006 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 8:54 pm

    When a building labour is being undercut by a Polish worker and he cannot find work, that is not nationalism mate, that is just basic survival. British unskilled workers are not going to Poland for a job, because the pay rates are too low and the conditions so poor. Now this is happening in Britain. it’s also happening in the building trade here. My mate is a brickie, he used to work regularly on Saturdays and get penalty rates for doing so. Now his boss has Burmese workers. 357 visas…skilled workers apparently. Now he never gets called in on Saturdays, the Burmese do… the reason… he pays them a flat $50 a day to work. Nothing to do with racism, or nationalism, it’s just about shithead exploitative employers taking the piss and running down wages and conditions.

    And that is an internal issue for the national Government to deal with.

    Why doesn’t your mate notify the authorities if he’s being stiffed.

    There are minimum pay and conditions, if an employer is not adhering to them then it’s up to the Government to deal with it.

    That’s the way it is in Australia and the UK.

    The only place the EU has in this is that it gives member citizens the right to work anywhere in the EU.

  4. Unionism? It is worker for worker. Unfortunately, the unions have been gutted in Britain. Exploitative employers are to blame. I feel sorry for the Eastern Europeans who are living in over crowded squats and getting shit money, but I also understand low skilled British workers who are sick of being undercut. As I said, the same thing is playing out here albeit on an (as yet) smaller scale.

  5. Mate what world are you living in? If he notified the authorities he would be laid off. Brickies are basically on going casuals and always have been. There is no unionization in housing. Unionism has retreated to big developments.

  6. jenauthor says:
    Friday, January 18, 2019 at 12:07 am

    Cheers jenauthor…very interesting…I actually feel better recently than any time in the last 15 years or more…

  7. https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/01/15/essential-research-53-47-labor-28/comment-page-41/#comment-3051622

    Supporting the use of national boundaries as labour market boundaries is nationalistic, dividing people based on arbitrary lines on maps rather than need or capacity. The EU is a labour market union that needs to also be a wage bargaining union and a social security union to even out supply of and demand for labour. The EU is thus the best way to get pay and conditions in Eastern and Southern Europe up to levels they attract Western and Northern European workers.

    Employers sponsored visas are a whole different kettle of fish, they effectively give employers the power of deportation and thus far too much bargaining power and should be scrapped.

  8. OK Clem, piss weak unions but mainly a shitload of nationalist bullshit = Brexit. I have run out of beer, so thanks for the nationalistic outpouring that proved my point.

  9. So do you support the Change the Rules campaign? I know I do. All this has been allowed to happen by Thatcher’s, Blair’s and Howard’s neo liberal labour law agenda.

  10. There is only him, his boss and the two Burmese workers. BTW. they are not in the union and do not care about being exploited. They think they are in nirvana. He has tried speaking with them.

  11. France and Germany are getting ready for a hard Brexit.
    https://www.dw.com/de/frankreich-startet-brexit-notfall-plan/a-47119374
    In France

    …about 50 million euros will be invested in French airports and ports… In addition, Philippe announced the recruitment of around 600 customs officers and veterinarians.

    In Germany

    We have a plan for an unregulated Brexit, and we will continue to intensify it.

    Apologies for the rough translations. But the sense I get is that the EU is done negotiating.

    This is a German news outlet, so grain of salt, but a key concern appears to be for Germans living in Britain. Legislation is being completed for Germans living in Britain who want to stay in Britain and British living in Germany who want to stay in Germany. The result would be that Germans staying in Britain would have to become British (in order for Britain to let them stay and work) and this would terminate their German citizenship. British in Germany would have to surrender their British citizenship and become German.

  12. There is only him, his boss and the two Burmese workers. BTW. they are not in the union and do not care about being exploited. They think they are in nirvana. He has tried speaking with them.

    I can see your mate is in a bad place. And if that is life in Britain I can better understand their desire to leave the EU. Thanks for your explanation.

  13. Ha, ha, sorry Late Riser, he is Australian. It is much worse in Britain. Just used him as an example that similar things are at work here.

  14. I’ve been away for a few weeks.

    I take it, from all the Lambie bashing by the Greens here, that she is now perceived as a threat to the Greens in the coming election?

    Why?

  15. clem attlee, No I got he was in Australia, and his story made sense. It helped to put a face on the British EU problem. Thanks for persevering.

  16. She’s always had those views.

    As someone else insinuated, she’s a clone of Pauline Hanson, although blessed with brain cells numbered in low double digits, rather than being cerebrally mono cellular.

    Her whole political style stank from the beginning of her political posturing.

    Why is she been singled out now, a loser, out of Parliament, particularly by Green supporters who had little to say about her previously?

  17. frednk @ #1904 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:14 pm

    Beef
    There is two fundamental problems with beef:
    1) It can kill you.
    2)It wrecks fences.

    Solvable problems:

    1) Don’t go in the bull paddock
    2) Put in decent fences, augmented with electric fences if need be.
    3) Make sure they have plenty of feed and water and shelter.

    And if you do go in the bull paddock, the blokes and dogs up here know what they are doing.

  18. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    In a concerning contribution John Hewson concludes with, “We have all the elements, globally and domestically, for a major economic and political crisis. Not if, but when. She’ll be right? No she won’t.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/she-won-t-be-right-the-economic-storm-our-leaders-ignore-20190117-p50rw4.html
    In an interesting op-ed Shadow Finance Minister Jim Chalmers outlines what Labor’s approach to finance will be if it wins the election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-need-for-a-broader-role-for-finance-in-government-20190109-p50qfj.html
    In a wide ranging article Richo says that for all those who have sought to criticise Bill Shorten, he has not put a foot wrong in a long, long time. He should say little over the next few months because whenever the focus is on the government it seems to come up with an Andrew Broad or a Barnaby Joyce to rob it of clear air.
    https://www.outline.com/VNq2GA
    Shane Wright reckons the dead fish might stink up the election campaign. The SA Royal Commission report is due to be dropped in two weeks and there is also the Productivity Commission report that will inform the debate.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dead-fish-could-stink-up-the-election-campaign-20190117-p50ruy.html
    The Greens will introduce legislation to establish a royal commission into the mismanagement of the Murray-Darling Basin when parliament returns in February, in the wake of the massive fish kill at Menindee last week.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/17/greens-to-introduce-bill-for-royal-commission-into-murray-darling
    Continued reduction of flows from the Darling River will result in one of the worst environmental catastrophes we’ll see in Australia. Professor Fran Sheldon from Griffith University’s Australian Rivers Institute reports.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/reduced-flows-reduces-darlings-ability-to-deal-with-drought/
    The Australian tells us how the Ken Hayne grenade is set to explode.
    https://www.outline.com/nW7qts
    Clive Palmer has vowed to plunge an extraordinary $50 million into his controversial federal election campaign, in a cash splash that could outstrip Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten but potentially fail to secure a single seat in Parliament for his fledgling United Australia Party.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/at-least-50-million-clive-palmer-to-spend-more-than-liberals-and-labor-in-huge-election-binge-20190117-p50rvi.html
    Shane Wright writes that a drop in home loans taken out across the country has prompted more warnings of further falls in house prices, with increasing interest from first-time buyers unable to offset dwindling numbers of investors.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/falling-home-loans-point-to-further-drop-in-house-prices-20190117-p50ry9.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz says that the equanimity with which markets, particularly the UK markets, have digested the Brexit-induced turmoil in the UK parliament is striking, and perhaps perplexing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/too-calm-in-the-storm-market-reaction-to-brexit-turmoil-may-be-premature-20190117-p50rxw.html
    European trade officials are digging in over a fight about whether Australian producers can keep using household food names such as prosecco and feta, as senior government ministers accelerate a $100 billion agreement with the European Union despite the stand-off.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prosecco-like-eu-digs-in-over-fight-to-rename-australian-wine-and-cheese-20190117-p50rya.html
    The London Telegraph is trumpeting that the markets have spoken – the Brexit dream is over.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/the-markets-have-spoken-the-brexit-dream-is-over-20190117-p50ruu.html
    This reader in politics blames David Cameron for getting the UK into this Brexit mess.
    https://theconversation.com/theresa-may-the-worst-prime-minister-ever-david-cameron-got-britain-into-this-mess-109988
    Nicky Ison writes that Tony Abbott played us for fools on electricity prices and asks if we will be played again.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/17/tony-abbott-played-us-for-a-fool-on-electricity-prices-will-we-be-played-agaib
    Doctors have blamed falling numbers of GPs seeing patients in nursing homes on poorly trained nurses and low Medicare rebates.
    https://outline.com/4rpT5V
    David Jones is the latest retailer to confess to a weak Christmas amid gathering evidence that penny-pinching consumers shopped early at November sales and then stayed away from the shops during the festive rush.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/david-jones-reveals-soft-christmas-sales-lift-20190117-p50s1h.html
    It is shaping up as a watershed year for the telecommunications industry thanks to several moments of truth in technology, capital expenditure and regulation.
    https://outline.com/Lqm2Xu
    Australia’s family favourite food brands are preparing to reduce their serving sizes or hike up their prices as the crippling drought, high labour costs and increased energy prices grip the nation’s food manufacturing sector. Consumers are being warned tough economic times could soon impact the weekly shop, as iconic Australian companies consider price rises, shrinking packing sizes or reducing their product range to avoid moving offshore.
    https://outline.com/vTUxgV
    Authorities are pleading with Canberrans to limit their electricity usage today as likely record-breaking temperatures push ACT and NSW power networks to their limits.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/record-heat-pushes-power-supply-into-the-red-20190117-p50rvd.html
    Australia’s union watchdog accidentally leaked secret emails from a confidential whistleblower in an embarrassing mix-up last year. Internal documents show the Registered Organisations Commission, which investigates union malfeasance, received a tip-off about the conduct of a “senior official” last year.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/18/union-watchdog-accidentally-leaked-secret-emails-from-confidential-whistleblower
    The Home Affairs Department has spent $2.76 million on external legal services in the prolonged dispute at the industrial umpire between bosses and staff over pay and conditions. External legal costs for the department and the main public sector union have together reached more than $3 million since the Fair Work Commission ordered strikes to end and later began arbitrating the workplace dispute in November 2016.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/home-affairs-legal-spending-reaches-2-76m-in-fair-work-dispute-20190116-p50rp4.html
    A quartet of experts in The Conversation explain how the saga of Opal Tower, the 36-storey Sydney apartment building evacuated on Christmas Eve after frightening cracking, has helped to expose the deep cracks in Australia’s approach to building apartments.
    https://theconversation.com/the-big-lesson-from-opal-tower-is-that-badly-built-apartments-arent-only-an-issue-for-residents-109722
    Jenna Price explains why we need even stronger protections against banks and superannuation outfits.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/why-we-need-even-stronger-protections-against-banks-and-super-20190117-p50rzm.html
    This investment house is betting on further loss of value of aged care companies.
    https://outline.com/tmmcp2
    The Aged Care royal commission kicks off today as more and more bad stories emerge.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/17/there-was-no-dignity-the-cost-of-falling-staff-ratios-in-nursing-homes
    More than $1 billion worth of building projects will be completed in the Adelaide CBD in 2019 as the skyline of the city continues to rapidly change. In addition, there is over $2.9 billion of developments either already on the way or set to begin construction this year as Adelaide begins to bridge the crane cap it has with other Australian cities.
    https://outline.com/u9H392
    In a contentious interview, the President’s lawyer Rudi Giuliani appeared to contradict his own past statements about collusion as well as what Trump and his supporters have repeatedly asserted.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/rudy-giuliani-i-never-said-there-was-no-collusion-between-trump-campaign-and-russia-20190118-p50s35.html
    The Wall Street Journal has reported that Cohen had paid the data firm Redfinch Solutions to manipulate two public opinion polls in favour of Trump ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-ordered-me-to-rig-election-polls-says-former-lawyer-cohen-20190118-p50s3a.html
    The El Chapo trial shows why a wall won’t stop drugs from crossing the US-Mexico border.
    https://theconversation.com/el-chapo-trial-shows-why-a-wall-wont-stop-drugs-from-crossing-the-us-mexico-border-110001
    The Trump administration may have separated thousands of migrant children from their parents at the border for up to a year before family separation was a publicly known practice, according to a stunning government review of the health department’s role in family separation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/17/trump-family-separations-report-latest-news-zero-tolerance-policy-immigrant-children
    How “erotic capital” can help (or harm) one’s career.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/erotic-capital-how-it-helps-or-harms-your-career-20190117-p50rxm.html
    Andrew Webster writes that rugby league players have been sweating bullets this week about which “funny video sent to a few mates on WhatsApp” will find its way into a much wider, more public domain than they ever intended.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/sex-lines-and-videotape-players-fear-next-big-papi-episode-20190117-p50s0k.html
    I Think Bernard Tomic deserves nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/tomic-made-threats-against-my-family-and-tried-to-blackmail-me-hewitt-20190117-p50s2z.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope has some heat wave tips.

    Mark David has found an MDB solution for Morrison.

    Cathy Wilcox on the Gillette ad drama

    From the absolutely prolific Matt Golding!








    An electoral trophy from Simon Letch.

    Jim Pavlidis and waste management.

    Zanetti is still getting off on the culture war.

    Jon Kudelka sets Shorten off on his bus tour.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/884fefdf1d4053fd7b8c614f340a8c10

    From the US.





  19. Michael Cohen: I rigged online polls ‘at the direction of and for the sole benefit’ of Trump

    Former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen on Thursday admitted that he paid Jerry Falwell Jr.’s technology officer cash in exchange for rigging online polls to help Donald Trump.

    What’s more, Cohen said that he did it under orders from Trump himself.

    A Wall Street Journal report from earlier on Thursday claimed that Cohen handed tech businessman John Gauger, who is now the chief information office at Jerry Falwell Jr.’s Liberty University, a bag full of cash in exchange for his help rigging online polls in early 2015.

    This is not the first time that Cohen has implicated Trump in wrongdoing, as he pleaded guilty to making illegal campaign contributions via hush-money payments to the president’s former mistresses under orders from Trump himself.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/michael-cohen-rigged-online-polls-direction-sole-benefit-trump/

  20. This timeline shows the damning evolution of Trump’s Russia collusion denials

    Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani on Wednesday moved the goal posts during a stunning CNN interview in which he allowed that some members of President Donald Trump’s campaign may have conspired with the Russian government.

    Washington Post reporter Aaron Blake has taken a look back at past defenses of the Trump campaign’s dealings with Russia, and he found that Giuliani’s admission is the largest departure yet from the “no collusion” line of defense, but it’s far from the only one.

    Rudy Giuliani just contradicted nearly all the Trump team’s past collusion denials

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/01/17/rudy-giuliani-just-contradicted-nearly-all-trump-teams-past-collusion-denials/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.17df3eb87301

  21. Pentagon officials ‘unnerved’ after Trump’s national security team keeps asking for plans to attack Iran: CNN

    President Donald Trump’s erratic behavior and abrupt flip-flops on national security strategies has led to “frayed nerves” within the United States Department of Defense, according to CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr.

    One particularly disturbing trend, claim Starr’s sources, has been a seeming obsession with plans to go to war with Iran.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/pentagon-officials-unnerved-trumps-national-security-team-keeps-asking-plans-attack-iran-cnn/

  22. Trump retaliates against Pelosi by canceling upcoming overseas Congressional trip

    President Donald Trump just revealed and blocked Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s classified trip with Congressional members to visit troops in Afghanistan over the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend because he said she needs to be in Washington to negotiate with him.

    “Due to the Shutdown, I am sorry to inform you that your trip to Brussels, Egypt and Afghanistan has been postponed. We will reschedule this seven-day excursion when the Shutdown is over,” the letter opens.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/trump-retaliates-pelosi-canceling-upcoming-overseas-congressional-trip/

  23. Lindsey Graham’s ‘360 degree turnaround‘ on Trump shows senator is ‘compromised’: congresswoman

    Ilhan Omar, the first Somali-American woman elected to Congress, in a Thursday appearance on CNN defended her claim on Twitter that South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s “360° turnaround” on President Donald Trump showed that Graham is “compromised” in some way.

    “Over the last three years, we have seen many times where Senator Lindsey Graham has told us how dangerous this president could be if he was given the opportunity to be in the White House,” Omar said. “All of a sudden he has made not only 180° turn around, but a 360° turn around.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/lindsey-grahams-360-degree-turnaround-on-trump-shows-senator-is-compromised-congresswoman/

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