Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

In the first new poll of the year, both major parties are up on the primary vote, yet their leaders’ disapproval ratings have shot upwards.

Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.

As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.

The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,042 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Quoll

    Yes, it’s all too much for some to read the entire article to which I linked a while ago. Unsubstantiated and misinformed claims is often the go around here for some PBers. Scientific evidence, peer-reviewed journals and the like can be conveniently ignored.

  3. Confessions

    If that was the case then it is a classic own goal by the poms. They were heavily into knocking off Gaddafi and the crud in Syria. Gaddafi even warned the EU of a ‘flood’ if he goes.

  5. Confessions @ #1832 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    From today’s Crikey, someone has noticed that Alexander Downer has been tagging @peopleschoice in some of his tweets about Brexit eg:

    Alexander Downer@AlexanderDowner
    Jan 15
    If there’s a second referendum on Brexit and Brexit wins, what’s the @peopleschoice plan then?

    Alexander Downer@AlexanderDowner
    18 Dec 2018
    If it’s okay to have a second Brexit referendum won’t it also be okay to have a second Scottish independence one? If not, why not? @peopleschoice may cause huge political fissure and break up the Union. More dangerous than they think.

    The problem is that @peopleschoice is the twitter account of an entertainment website that actually does take people’s votes on celebrity fashion and so on. They must be perplexed at some bloke tagging them in Brexit commentary.

    Perhaps Downer should get some social media coaching from AOC!

    Maybe someone should ask all these people bleating about people’s choice and democracy and how sacred the vote to leave was why they aren’t so supportive of those that voted to remain in 1975, over 67% of those voting voted to remain then.
    If those people that voted to remain in 1975 can have it ignored and a second referendum be conducted why can’t a third one be conducted.
    I guess it is only undemocratic if it is against your particular position.

  6. poroti:

    Suggestions of a white nationalist tinge to the Brexit campaign in the wake of the Syrian refugee crisis isn’t new. And in any case there are many who argue that Brexit itself is a massive own goal by the Brits.

  10. Confessions @ #1785 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 7:58 pm

    I have no idea if this is accurate or not, but officials at the Port of Dover are concerned about a hard Brexit without agreement on trade, border and customs checks will create gridlock for the 10,000 cargo trucks that cross the Channel daily. In essence they predict for every 2 mins a truck is delayed at the port for checks will result in a 17 mile traffic back up on the M20.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-finds-a-faulty-shipping-safety-net-for-brexit-11546943401

    But won’t there be less trucks going into Europe when the UK is no longer a part of Europe? Europe won’t be taking British farmers’ stuff or manufactured goods (if they do still make stuff in the UK any more). Preference will be given to the produce of the other EU members instead I would imagine. There’s a surfeit of agricultural produce grown, as I understand it, in Europe as it is.

  11. Okay, I don’t support Jaquie Lambie any more. She believes in the Death Penalty.
    Because. Martin Bryant. And drug dealers who peddled Ice to her son.

  14. C@t:

    The problem doesn’t appear to be so much trucks going out of the UK, but coming in. And according to that WSJ article the British govt is so concerned about port congestion at Dover that it has considered using an abandoned airfield near the port as a giant parking lot for trucks for inspections.

  17. I think you need to get out from behind the Great Wall of Quinoa on 26 January. The level of jingoism is truly Amazing

    I am so glad that on the 26th West Australians, Taswegians (etc) celebrate NSW foundation day along with us fromNSW. Wonder why NZ dont celebrate it tho’.

  18. The diet to save ourselves if not the planet.

    “The world’s diets must change dramatically,” said Walter Willett at Harvard University and one of the leaders of the commission convened by the Lancet medical journal and the Eat Forum NGO. The report, published in the Lancet and being launched to policymakers in 40 cities around the world, also concluded that food waste must be halved to 15%.

    https://phys.org/news/2019-01-human-diet-catastrophic-planet.html?platform=hootsuite

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/16/new-plant-focused-diet-would-transform-planets-future-say-scientists

  24. Confessions @ #1914 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:33 pm

    C@t:

    The problem doesn’t appear to be so much trucks going out of the UK, but coming in. And according to that WSJ article the British govt is so concerned about port congestion at Dover that it has considered using an abandoned airfield near the port as a giant parking lot for trucks for inspections.

    Still, there may be quite a few farmers in the UK with excess produce to sell now. Europe may not be interested and they will have to sell it locally, so less imports from Europe. Though, if they perpetuate the Customs Union, does that apply to Trade?

    I’m confused!

  28. In other news, the Prime Minister for Standards will make it compulsory for picnickers and beachgoers to wear or carry at least one item emblazoned with the Aussie flag – hat, beach towel, swimwear, esky, whatever. Also, it will be compulsory for drivers to attach at least one Aussie flag to their car on the Great Day.

  30. HaveAchat @ #1905 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 9:17 pm

    Confessions @ #1832 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    From today’s Crikey, someone has noticed that Alexander Downer has been tagging @peopleschoice in some of his tweets about Brexit eg:

    Alexander Downer@AlexanderDowner
    Jan 15
    If there’s a second referendum on Brexit and Brexit wins, what’s the @peopleschoice plan then?

    Alexander Downer@AlexanderDowner
    18 Dec 2018
    If it’s okay to have a second Brexit referendum won’t it also be okay to have a second Scottish independence one? If not, why not? @peopleschoice may cause huge political fissure and break up the Union. More dangerous than they think.

    The problem is that @peopleschoice is the twitter account of an entertainment website that actually does take people’s votes on celebrity fashion and so on. They must be perplexed at some bloke tagging them in Brexit commentary.

    Perhaps Downer should get some social media coaching from AOC!

    Maybe someone should ask all these people bleating about people’s choice and democracy and how sacred the vote to leave was why they aren’t so supportive of those that voted to remain in 1975, over 67% of those voting voted to remain then.
    If those people that voted to remain in 1975 can have it ignored and a second referendum be conducted why can’t a third one be conducted.
    I guess it is only undemocratic if it is against your particular position.

    Where’s Rex Douglas when you want to rub his nose in his hypocrisy? 😆

  31. Steve777 @ #1927 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 10:01 pm

    In other news, the Prime Minister for Standards will make it compulsory for picnickers and beachgoers to wear or carry at least one item emblazoned with the Aussie flag – hat, beach towel, swimwear, esky, whatever. Also, it will be compulsory for drivers to attach at least one Aussie flag to their car on the Great Day.

    Hmm. I wonder what he thinks about this show of patriotism?

  32. Rex needs to explain his position, because I’m sure it has nothing to do with democracy.

    Does he want the UK to suck-it? Does he approve of nationalism? Does he just want to make provocative posts?

    His opinion has never been clearly stated… then again, I don’t read it all.

  33. C@t:

    I’m certainly no expert and would never claim to be! I’m simply reading the stuff that has come up on social media the past few days, and going off what I’ve read here mostly from briefly and TPOF.

    But my understanding is that the EU is by far and away Britain’s largest trading partner. Presumably as a member of the EU that trade relationship comes with concessions or whatever that one assumes won’t necessarily be available if Britain exits the EU, esp under a hard Brexit option.

    Time is running out, but as George Will has written, perhaps the Brexiteers will lose their bravado once the cold, hard reality becomes apparent in the weeks/days leading up to the date, as the US Congress did during the GFC.

  34. Did the UK have a problem dumping on Australia, New Zealand and Canada when the UK joined the Common Market?
    Abbott has such dodgy paperwork credentials after discovering Australia, perhaps he should be asked to explain?
    Alexander Downer looks like a UK bus driver!
    Does Australia presently have a PM?
    Some people would like to see the Union Jack removed from the Australian flag, not just the Scottish bit!
    Barnaby Joyce is hero at his school reunions and an embarrassment for his four daughters!
    In the last fifty thousands years, is the 26th February the most significant date?
    Ask a Portuguese or Dutch sailor!
    Ask an indigenous Australia whether thongs are acceptable footwear!
    What did Indigenous Australians wear at their citizenship ceremony?
    Thank goodness CFW knows a loan is a loan!
    Are we doing the best we can ?

  35. HaveAchat @ #1905 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 6:17 pm

    Confessions @ #1832 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 6:22 pm

    From today’s Crikey, someone has noticed that Alexander Downer has been tagging @peopleschoice in some of his tweets about Brexit eg:

    Alexander Downer@AlexanderDowner
    Jan 15
    If there’s a second referendum on Brexit and Brexit wins, what’s the @peopleschoice plan then?

    Alexander Downer@AlexanderDowner
    18 Dec 2018
    If it’s okay to have a second Brexit referendum won’t it also be okay to have a second Scottish independence one? If not, why not? @peopleschoice may cause huge political fissure and break up the Union. More dangerous than they think.

    The problem is that @peopleschoice is the twitter account of an entertainment website that actually does take people’s votes on celebrity fashion and so on. They must be perplexed at some bloke tagging them in Brexit commentary.

    Perhaps Downer should get some social media coaching from AOC!

    Maybe someone should ask all these people bleating about people’s choice and democracy and how sacred the vote to leave was why they aren’t so supportive of those that voted to remain in 1975, over 67% of those voting voted to remain then.
    If those people that voted to remain in 1975 can have it ignored and a second referendum be conducted why can’t a third one be conducted.
    I guess it is only undemocratic if it is against your particular position.

    Well, my comment was more about the lolworthy value of Downer pointlessly remonstrating with an online entertainment magazine about Brexit, thereby demonstrating his cluelessness when it comes to social media, and quite likely causing all kinds of confusion among the comms people at E!. But yes, there is also the hypocrisy.

  36. I also don’t pretend to know, but the obvious problems are the Good Friday Agreement on the Irish boarder, and any business that spreads its parts across the EU.

  38. Hmm. Will the Brexiteers lose their bravado as B Day approaches?

    With Steve Bannon having set up HQ inside an old Italian Monastery, I don’t think so. He’ll be urging them on…well, you couldn’t actually say, to victory, could you?

  42. Thanks Fess, I’ll be watching when the YouTube comes up. I have an annual wake for an old mate on Saturday (it’s not as depressing as it sounds).

  44. C@t:

    I’m hoping sanity will prevail and either there will be an extension given by the EU to the deadline for departure to enable ongoing negotiations, or a second referendum will be held.

    There’s been plenty of talk about Putin and Russia having their hands in the Brexit mess, so at least on that front I’d hope sanity prevails so that an authoritarian dictator’s hostile attempts to subvert democracy is thwarted.

  47. Lambie on Putin:

    In October 2014, Lambie stated in a radio interview with ABC Radio National that she liked Vladimir Putin, saying: “I think he has very strong leadership. He has great values. He’s certainly doing his bit to stamp out terrorism and I guess you’ve got to pay the man for that.”

  48. Corbyn has lost me on Brexit. Not to the point of Briefly, because generally I think Corbyn is on the right track, but I don’t think the times suit him the way they do Shorten.

    As Ray (UK) points out, Brexit is big in Labour (UK) seats, and apparently Corbyn has always had a nationalist lean anyway. In my mind nationalism and ‘fairness’ are conflicted, so the times don’t suit him. It is an internal contradiction that is impossible to sell.

  49. jenauthor @ #1842 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 6:40 pm

    What of the footprint of cereal crops? Or cotton? The trouble with a vegan diet is you need to consume 5 times the amount of food to gain the barest adequacy of nutrition.

    Absolutely silly statement. You should know better. At times, you give the impression that you may have some intelligence, but statements like that are just jaw-dropping.

    Read this. https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/89/5/1627S/4596952

    and this: https://nutritionfacts.org/2018/01/11/what-do-the-longest-living-people-eat/

    “The dietary guidelines recommend that we choose meals or snacks that are high in nutrients but lower in calories to reduce the risk of chronic disease. By this measure, the healthiest foods on the planet—that is, the most nutrient dense—are vegetables, which contain the most nutrient bang for our caloric buck. What would happen if a population centered their entire diet around vegetables, like the Okinawa Japanese? They end up having among the longest lives in the world.”

  50. The separatist impulse is a feature of our times. We can see it in Brexit, in Scots nationalism, in US retreat into white nativism, in separatist claims in Spain; in divisive politics in Italy, France, Germany and Austria, in Hungary and Poland; and we can see it in our own politics too, in the split-politics that promote, accentuate and play on disaffection.

    The consensual politics of the post-war order is really fragmenting. This is a part of the reality that democratic parties have to contend with. It is highly regressive imo…

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