Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

In the first new poll of the year, both major parties are up on the primary vote, yet their leaders’ disapproval ratings have shot upwards.

Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.

As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.

The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,042 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Lovey@5:32pm
    “26 Jan is not important to anyone”
    Not correct. It is extremely important to Indians. It is their Republic Day i.e the day India became a Republic.

  5. Ven @ #1695 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 5:28 pm

    C@tmomma@1:12pm
    Putin has smile which conveys the impression that he is in total control of Trump and the situation, whereas Trump looks like a weighed down by the presence of Putin. Looks like Putin has some incriminating evidence against Trump.

    Sure does! I can’t imagine that Donald Trump went to Russia, a man who boasted of ‘grabbing women by the pussy’, and wasn’t ensnared in a compromising position by Putin. It’s already been discovered that Trump was prepared to sleep with a porn star and a Playboy model while his wife was caring for his newborn son, so you can only imagine what he would have gotten up to half way around the world without his wife around!

  6. P1

    If you’re still around, there’s something I’ve been wanting to ask you.

    There was a discussion on 3aw this morning involving a newly elected member of the Justice Party in the Victorian Upper House. This person stated that even if we do ALL the other things that are required to keep global warming at a manageable level we will fail if we don’t also massively reduce our consumption of meat.

    I have never heard this mentioned before in any discussion of this kind. Do you think we can put any stock at all in that type of argument, or is it just a vegan pipe dream?

  8. Kevin Bonham@5#:40pm
    Not good. 6 out of 9 Green senators are up for re-election. As of now only 2 are in position to win. It is very tough for others. ALP has 27 senators. ALP may have at the best 30 senators in new Senate.

  11. I’m all for changing the date, first choice would be the recognition of the original inhabitants as citizens, failing that the first sitting of the federal parliament. As for brexit, put me down for a delay and second referendum.

  12. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez knows exactly where, between the shoulder blades, to slip the knife into the Repugs:

    Ocasio-Cortez, who has amassed more than 2 million Twitter followers and has emerged as one of her party’s most prominent national figures, seems to relish beatingback the attacks.

    “It’s encouraging because this is my sixth day in Congress and they’re out of all their artillery,” she said in a recent interview. “The nude(supposed nude selfie of AOC that wasn’t) is supposed to be like the bazooka. You know, like, ‘We’re going to take her down.’ Dude, you’re all out of bullets, you’re all out of bombs, you’re all out of all this stuff. What have you got left?”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/what-have-you-got-left-ocasio-cortez-taunts-gop-critics-obsessing-over-her/2019/01/15/a48b5832-1455-11e9-803c-4ef28312c8b9_story.html?utm_term=.d3f09ccbb75d

  13. Darn,

    Years ago I saw a TV show on CC which had alarming stats on how much greenhouse gas beef farts out. Forgotten the name of the guy who did it.

  14. Bert @ #1810 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 4:50 pm

    I’m all for changing the date, first choice would be the recognition of the original inhabitants as citizens, failing that the first sitting of the federal parliament. As for brexit, put me down for a delay and second referendum.

    Got you on both.

    And FWIW keeping the Australia Day on Jan 26 is running at 6%, with no overriding urgency for change that I can discern from the comments.

  17. I remember this character being one of Reith’s nasty hatchet men.

    One of the most senior members of Australia’s workplace tribunal has been rebuked for sharing “politically controversial” comments on social media that attacked federal Labor leader Bill Shorten and the country’s largest construction union.

    The Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union had been fighting to get Fair Work Commission senior deputy president Jonathan Hamberger to recuse himself from a case last year over whether three CFMEU officials were “fit and proper” holders of work-site entry permits. Their request came after he shared an anti-union tweet posted by former federal employment minister Michaelia Cash.

    After he declined to recuse himself, the union appealed to a Fair Work Commission full bench which on Thursday backed Mr Hamberger. The bench did, however, issue him a mild reproach, citing the need to stay out of political discussions.

    The tweet, containing the headline “CFMEU notches up 100 members before the courts … A CENTURY OF SHAME”, featured a graphic of Mr Shorten dressed in cricket gear. It accused Labor of objecting to the restoration of the Howard-era Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) with its tougher powers and penalties because the ALP receives “millions in donations” from the union.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/workplace/fair-work-deputy-under-fire-for-sharing-anti-cfmeu-social-media-post-20190117-p50rww.html

  18. An interesting point made on the day Republican Senators voted to lift sanctions on a Russian oligarch.

    Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
    3h3 hours ago
    Trump will surely see the entire Mueller report. So Putin will see every word. Imagine what it would mean for Putin to know exactly what Mueller learned about Russia’s collusion — AND WHAT HE COULDN’T DISCOVER — while Congress and the American people are kept guessing.

  21. Ven @ #1795 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 2:28 pm

    C@tmomma@1:12pm
    Putin has smile which conveys the impression that he is in total control of Trump and the situation, whereas Trump looks like a weighed down by the presence of Putin. Looks like Putin has some incriminating evidence against Trump.

    From what I’ve read over that last couple of years I’d like to know if there is anybody who *doesn’t* have compromising information on Trump?

  23. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/16/greens-wont-let-morrison-force-councils-to-hold-australia-day-citizenship-ceremonies

    Shorten in response to the Greens offer to preside over citizenship ceremonies on behalf of local councils:

    Parliamentary library advice, seen by Guardian Australia, rejected that claim, stating “there is nothing in the citizenship legislation or regulations stating that senators and members must seek authorisation from the minister or department to preside over a citizenship ceremony”.

    On Wednesday Bill Shorten told Channel Nine’s Today show that Labor will not follow the Greens’ lead, suggesting that the “extremes” in Australian politics “say radical things” to “grab a headline”.

    “The Greens can say and do what they want,” he said. “Labor is not going to go down that path.”

    Shorten has committed that, if elected, he will ensure Australia Day remains on 26 January and stays a public holiday.

    Trotting out the “extreme” meme. No doubt, down the track when it’s politically expedient for him to support change the date and he no longer needs to pander to the Labor leaning Hasonites, etc, he will.

  25. MDB

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/17/greens-to-introduce-bill-for-royal-commission-into-murray-darling

    The Northern Basin Aboriginal Nations have backed the Greens’ call, saying the Nationals’ stewardship has been akin to “Dracula in charge of the bloodbank.”

    NBAN deputy chair, Ghillar Michael Anderson, and director, Cheryl Buchanan, said the disaster being experienced in the Murray Darling was not just due to drought.

    “It is is also a culmination of man-made mismanagement… and major development without scientific evidence-based planning in the formative years of the MDBA,” they said.
    :::
    But NSW state opposition leader, Michael Daley, who was in Menindee on Thursday, refused to back a federal royal commission, saying it was a matter for federal Labor and has instead proposed a state commission of inquiry with similar powers.

  26. Pill testing

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/17/how-to-navigate-dinner-conversations-about-pill-testing

    Here are some answers for you to put the arguments against pill testing in their scientific resting place
    :::
    Europeans have been successfully conducting pill testing at music festivals for over two decades.

    Despite this, a few pollies are adding some straw man arguments to the dying embers of opposition to pill testing. Our favourite one is that we are giving the “green light” to drug use despite having saved thousands of lives caused by drug issues.

    Again, when it’s politically expedient down the track, but only after more people have tragically died, these obstructionist politicians will flip on a dime.

  27. On the factory grown meat, L R’s link says they use muscle tissue stem cells. I think it would pass as vegetarian, but not vegan.

  28. C@tmomma@5:51pm
    AOC AOC AOC AOC AOC……….. 🙂

    That rhymes well with USA USA USA USA….. …
    It is refreshing that She is still counting her days in Congress. She is breadth of fresh air.

  31. Late Riser @ #1828 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 5:17 pm

    Question @ #1826 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    On the factory meat, L R’s link says they use muscle tissue stem cells. I think it would pass as vegetarian, but not vegan.

    The way to market this stuff is initially via bespoke meats that haven’t existed before or might now be extinct. Woolly mammoth burger anyone?

    Though you might need a bit of that CRISPR-Cas9 editing to get there.

  32. From today’s Crikey, someone has noticed that Alexander Downer has been tagging @peopleschoice in some of his tweets about Brexit eg:

    Alexander Downer@AlexanderDowner
    Jan 15
    If there’s a second referendum on Brexit and Brexit wins, what’s the @peopleschoice plan then?

    Alexander Downer@AlexanderDowner
    18 Dec 2018
    If it’s okay to have a second Brexit referendum won’t it also be okay to have a second Scottish independence one? If not, why not? @peopleschoice may cause huge political fissure and break up the Union. More dangerous than they think.

    The problem is that @peopleschoice is the twitter account of an entertainment website that actually does take people’s votes on celebrity fashion and so on. They must be perplexed at some bloke tagging them in Brexit commentary.

    Perhaps Downer should get some social media coaching from AOC!

  34. Thanks KB I’ll read with interest.

    From earlier today on Morrison’s gift of a Kangaroo’s jersey in Fiji.
    He may have been advised by DFAT, rugby league is very popular in parts of the South Pacific. An example is Papua New Guinea where it is the national sport. I suspect it is very popular in Fiji.

  35. Darn @ #1806 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 5:44 pm

    P1

    If you’re still around, there’s something I’ve been wanting to ask you.

    There was a discussion on 3aw this morning involving a newly elected member of the Justice Party in the Victorian Upper House. This person stated that even if we do ALL the other things that are required to keep global warming at a manageable level we will fail if we don’t also massively reduce our consumption of meat.

    I have never heard this mentioned before in any discussion of this kind. Do you think we can put any stock at all in that type of argument, or is it just a vegan pipe dream?

    I suspect that is based on the american model, where meat production is not based on grazing, in the main, but on grain fed stock.

    Grazing on land unsuitable for anything else (a lot of Australia and many other parts of the world, much of the savannah lands of africa and south america for instance) is a productive use of land.

  37. Darn @ #1806 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 2:44 pm

    P1

    If you’re still around, there’s something I’ve been wanting to ask you.

    There was a discussion on 3aw this morning involving a newly elected member of the Justice Party in the Victorian Upper House. This person stated that even if we do ALL the other things that are required to keep global warming at a manageable level we will fail if we don’t also massively reduce our consumption of meat.

    I have never heard this mentioned before in any discussion of this kind. Do you think we can put any stock at all in that type of argument, or is it just a vegan pipe dream?

    There is an excellent documentary on Netflix called Cowspiracy. It answers any questions you might have regarding meat production, and answers a lot of questions you haven’t thought of yet.

  39. Question @ #1830 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    L R,

    I bet Woolly Mammoth tastes fantastic. We once died for it 🙂

    There are serious efforts to bring back at least part woolly mammoths using collected fossil DNA and elephant mothers, altering the dna so that they don’t have tusks.

    Woolly mammoth was a high fat (very valuable in the ice ages), high nutrition (valuable anytime) meat which was much sought after – but first catch your woolly mammoth!

  40. Y’know, I reckon most First Nations peoples would rather a voice to parliament and a much greater say in their own welfare, or better outcomes for health and justice and housing and employment and education, than they give a stuff about whether or not Australia Day is on 26 January.

    I mean seriously folks! There is a major cancer in our society that needs healing and all some people want to talk about is how to squeeze a pimple painlessly. FMD!

  41. Darn,

    There’s masses of material that has been around for a long time about the environmental footprint of meat.

    A recent article : https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/31/avoiding-meat-and-dairy-is-single-biggest-way-to-reduce-your-impact-on-earth

    The new research shows that without meat and dairy consumption, global farmland use could be reduced by more than 75% – an area equivalent to the US, China, European Union and Australia combined – and still feed the world. Loss of wild areas to agriculture is the leading cause of the current mass extinction of wildlife.
    :::
    The study, published in the journal Science, created a huge dataset based on almost 40,000 farms in 119 countries and covering 40 food products that represent 90% of all that is eaten. It assessed the full impact of these foods, from farm to fork, on land use, climate change emissions, freshwater use and water pollution (eutrophication) and air pollution (acidification).

    “A vegan diet is probably the single biggest way to reduce your impact on planet Earth…

  42. Late Riser @ #3597 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    Late Riser @ #1828 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 5:17 pm

    Question @ #1826 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 5:16 pm

    On the factory meat, L R’s link says they use muscle tissue stem cells. I think it would pass as vegetarian, but not vegan.

    The way to market this stuff is initially via bespoke meats that haven’t existed before or might now be extinct. Woolly mammoth burger anyone?

    Though you might need a bit of that CRISPR-Cas9 editing to get there.

    …not to mention embryos to get the stem cells from. It would work with cows – plenty of embryos to get the requisite stem cells from. To get mammoth stem cells, you’d first have to edit large amounts of mammoth sequence into an elephant germ cells (using CRISPR-Cas9), then implant the embryo, then successfully bring it to term. I doubt that any of the several groups who are currently looking at the feasibility of recreating mammoths would give up the product for food fanticists.

  43. What of the footprint of cereal crops? Or cotton? The trouble with a vegan diet is you need to consume 5 times the amount of food to gain the barest adequacy of nutrition.

  44. jenauthor @ #1839 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 5:36 pm

    Y’know, I reckon most First Nations peoples would rather a voice to parliament and a much greater say in their own welfare, or better outcomes for health and justice and housing and employment and education, than they give a stuff about whether or not Australia Day is on 26 January.

    I see no reason why they wouldn’t, couldn’t, or shouldn’t want all those things. It’s not like it’s a binary choice, or that one thing must be done ahead of another, or that people can’t advocate (or implement) multiple positions concurrently on independent and unrelated issues.

    Of course The Voice should be implemented. And of course the systemic stacking of the odds against indigenous people should be dismantled. And of course Australia day should be moved to a day that’s not offensive to many of Australia’s earliest inhabitants.

    We can all walk and chew gum at the same time.

  45. Didn’t I read somewhere that woolly mammoths (and large dinosaurs) would not survive now because of lower oxygen levels in the atmosphere? I may be mistaken – but I am almost sure ….

  47. AR I agree except the priority should be the former – we have demonstrated that we can’t seem to walk and chew gum at the same time when it comes to Aboriginal Australians … otherwise there’d be fewer poor outcomes. In this, our nation seems to move in very slow increments (if we move forward at all)

  48. “No doubt, down the track when it’s politically expedient for him to support change the date and he no longer needs to pander to the Labor leaning Hasonites, etc, he will.”

    And that Peg is the difference between a party of government and one who seeks to virtue signal to its small base on hot button issues in the hope of shaving off votes. It’s not just “Labor leaning Hansonities” but your “etc” includes a massive amount of pretty regular Australians who are fond of 26 January as our national day that will need to be turned. Frankly, as a number of indigenous voices have said it’s the country that needs to be changed, not a date.

    In some ways Labor is in a similar position as UK Labour over Brexit: a clear majority of supporters, rank and file members and MPs hate it, but a very sizeable majority of traditional labour voters in up to 100 seats strongly support Brexit and may likely take their votes and vote for UKIP or equivalent if parliamentary Labour are seen to be disrespectful of the success of the leave vote. As Ray (UK) rightly poked me last night, it’s a pickle. I digress.

    Back to Australia Day, Labor would be stupid to risk losing its election winning position on an obvious Tory identity politics trap – with the added Greens wedge.

    I personally think Australia Day has been weaponised by Howard – largely to target Labor’s traditional bases of support. It is very popular with a very significant proportion of the wider community and, thanks in large part to Howard’s culture wars, there is vehement opposition to voices of dissent. This is very regrettable, but I believe it to be a fact.

    The date has always been objected to by indigenous voices – going right back to the National Day of Mourning protest march in 1938 (the occasion of Sydney’s sesquicentennial), which coincides with the push to turn ‘foundation day’ / ‘Sydney day’ into Australia Day. I don’t believe the date could ever be accepted by indigenous Australians. Ever. Or but right thinking people like yourself. I had hoped in the early 1990s that Australia Day could be turned into a National day of celebration and commemoration through the reconciliation process. That opportunity – if it ever existed – has surely passed due entirely to Howard’s mendacity.

    The problem is that “change the date” is perceived as a direct attack on the values of a large section of the community, in a similar way that those in UK Labour urging a second referendum are seen to be engaging in a direct attack on the values of a large slab of labour’s regional base. Both UK Labour (re Brexit) and Labor (indigenous affairs) need to bring these kind of folk with them, whereas the Greens have the luxury of just yelling at people it doesn’t like from behind the Great Wall of Quinoa.

    In short, we need to change the country, but we have to take the country with us. I am hopeful that Bill and the Labor team he leads is on the right track.

  49. Sorry L R,

    Went off to make a sandwich. I saw the Union Jack without the Scottish flag during the last referendum. It lacks a certain something 😉

  50. jenauthor @ #1845 Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 5:42 pm

    Didn’t I read somewhere that woolly mammoths (and large dinosaurs) would not survive now because of lower oxygen levels in the atmosphere? I may be mistaken – but I am almost sure ….

    Large dinosaurs may have a problem but wooly mammoths only became extinct about 10,000 years ago, so not a significantly different atmosphere,

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