Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.
As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.
The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.
UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.
Bit hard to peacefully protest while inciting hatred, I would have thought.
And the winners are…….
53/47
BK; Mavis; Al Pal; max;
Dog’s Breakfast @ #2 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 3:04 am
With a majority of the non-winners being within the margin of error.
After a weekend of explosive revelations — how much more is Trump hiding?
The lede in Peter Baker’s story in the Sunday New York Times was one I don’t think anyone ever expected to see:
So it has come to this: The president of the United States was asked over the weekend whether he is a Russian agent. And he refused to answer.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/weekend-explosive-revelations-much-trump-hiding/
48 hours and 35 tweets: Donald Trump’s lost weekend morphs into mad Monday morning meltdown
President Donald Trump, un-buoyed by his former chief of staff John Kelly, went on a bender this past weekend, and America is left with the hangover. No, the Leader of the Free World’s drug of choice isn’t alcohol, it’s Twitter, and there was no one able to cut him off.
The President isn’t binge watching, he’s binge tweeting.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/48-hours-35-tweets-donald-trumps-lost-weekend-morphs-mad-monday-morning-meltdown/
Faced with the ‘greatest scandal’ in US history, what will the American people do?
Donald Trump is not a Manchurian candidate.
Unlike Frank Sinatra’s character in the 1962 film, Donald Trump has not been captured, tortured and in the process “brainwashed” by a foreign government. Instead, President Donald Trump has repeatedly chosen to advance the interests and goals of Russia and Vladimir Putin over those of the United States and the American people.
As documented by David Cay Johnston, Craig Unger, Seth Abramson and other investigative journalists, political analysts and reporters, Donald Trump has maintained questionable relationships with Russia’s criminal underworld (who often operate in conjunction with Russia’s spy agencies) for several decades. He publicly colluded with Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign and requested that Putin’s agents steal Hillary Clinton’s emails. He has praised the murderous dictator Vladimir Putin as a “strong leader” while insulting and demeaning U.S. national security professionals by dismissing their findings about Russia’s interference in America’s elections and democracy. He continues to side with Putin against NATO and the Western alliance at almost every opportunity, and has even shared highly classified information with Russian diplomats.
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/faced-greatest-scandal-us-history-will-american-people/
This slowing down Trump by 0.5 reveals the true nature of the man…
https://mobile.twitter.com/jonny290/status/1084879721106530310/video/1
Ex-NSA John Schindlers thoughtful column regarding the Mueller Investigation and why the public ‘unclassified’ version may be lacking in detail
Everyone in the nation’s capital is waiting for the report to be issued by Robert S. Mueller, III and his Special Counsel investigation, reportedly by the spring. Some version of that report will reach the public, eventually, no matter how mightily the Trump administration tries to prevent its release.
That said, the anti-Trump ‘Resistance’ ought to prepare itself for disappointment, since the unclassified version of the Mueller report they will someday see is destined to be lacking in detail. We already know that the Special Counsel inquiry possesses highly classified intelligence regarding Trump’s Moscow connections; the contents are reported to be devastating to the president and his retinue.
However, such top-secret-plus intelligence will never wind up in the unclassified version of Mueller’s report due to the need to protect classified sources and methods. Unless America’s spy agencies are willing to let the world see their best espionage capabilities – something they have never done, with good reason – the Trump case will be no exception.
Donald Trump, the Kremlin and the ghost of Alger Hiss
https://spectator.us/donald-trump-kremlin-ghost-alger-hiss/
Rasmussen poll shows Trump with lowest approval in a year
A conservative-leaning poll released Monday showed President Trump with his lowest approval ratings in almost a year.
The Rasmussen poll found that 43 percent of likely voters polled approve of Trump’s job performance, his lowest mark in the poll since January of 2018, when his approval was at 42 percent.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/425196-rasmussen-poll-shows-trump-with-lowest-approval-in-a-year?__twitter_impression=true
Just to prove I do read William’s piece —
‘Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 22% saying it was appropriate…’
Looking at the front page of the Guardian it’s clear they think the most important stories are the Essential Poll (naturally) and one from The Greens reporting the Gov’t is 6 weeks late releasing the reasons behind it allowing the Menindee Lakes to be drained, TWICE, in the past 4 years. (Cotton, anyone?)
But over on the once great SMH the headline story is about …….. Tennis.
In fact I had to check I wasn’t on the lifestyle page, because the only article about the greatest environmental crisis we’ve ever had in NSW is a day old opinion piece (but still worth reading).
I won’t preempt BK with links.
My complaint is about the lighter than air SMH, now run by Pete Costello. Well, maybe that explains it.
Edited to fix error re time period
Colour me surprised —
‘Commonwealth prosecutors will not pursue criminal charges against anyone implicated in leaks to the media about raids on the Australian Workers Union (AWU).’
‘”The AFP considers this investigation finalised.”‘
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-15/no-criminal-charges-in-awu-raids-case/10714942
Michaelia can come out from behind the whiteboard now.
‘Ashlee Aldridge
@Ashlee_Aldridge
21h21 hours ago
More
Large media scrum breaks out in applause as @Indigocathy makes her announcement….’
Exactly so. McGowan is successful because the media made her so.
“The AFP considers this investigation finalised.”‘
(Thanks Zoomster)
Labor will go ballistic when parliament returns.
My bet is with those who predict Morrison will call an early election. Too risky to allow even a single sitting day.
Morning all. The poll is as good as Morrison could hope for, but still within MOE of no change at all.
As for Trump, I dont doubt he colluded with Russia, but still doubt he will ever be impeached. The repugnants have too much to lose admitting what their Potus is really like.
“The AFP considers this investigation finalised.”
The obvious question is, why? Was no crime committed? So many reasons to shake up the AFP leadership. And of course, a federal Icac now.
As William pondered yesterday, it is hard to imagine what this site would be like if it were all based in the UK!
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/14/only-end-beginning-brexit-civil-war-theresa-may
I am beginning to believe that if Brexit goes through that Scotland will be an independent nation within five years. And I do love Brexit supporters who say that Scotland cannot be allowed to leave the UK.
I like how zoomster corrects William’s posts, it’s got a charm to it I will admit.
When will the Liberals have the intestinal fortitude to split from the Nats?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/nsw-liberal-branch-president-declares-war-on-nationals-in-michael-mccormacks-seat?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Scotland will be a failed state.
Lower oil prices and production and a huge welfare bill. Currently subsidised (along with Wales & NI) by south east England.
From the leader:
nota bene – the specified circumstances are what happens.
nath
It is quite common for posters here to correct William’s posts.
lizzie @ #19 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 7:44 am
The tories & greens look a “good fit”.
Why not just formalise it ?
There’s a slight discomfort in wondering about chez BK.
Is BK on bushfire alert? He isn’t allowed to sleep in
Correcting his dress sense is futile.
zoomster
says:
Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 7:52 am
nath
It is quite common for posters here to correct William’s posts.
__________________________
No, I like it because you said you were a teacher. I wasn’t having a go.
HH
I realise the problems for Scotland but I think a bad Brexit may drive them to separate, even though it may not be the best decision.
Holden Hillbilly
Scotland will be a failed state.
Lower oil prices and production and a huge welfare bill. Currently subsidised (along with Wales & NI) by south east England.
The UK has 22nd largest GDP/ capita, 80% of GDP is produced by services sector.
England is the failed state if it leaves the EU, what happens when the City of London financial sector ups camp & moves to the main land?
There is only one fire in the area and it is closer to me than BK. And it is contained. However it is in a bad location – there are 5 units on it – so perhaps he is assisting with bacon and eggs?
zoomster @ #22 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 7:52 am
But he’s a smart arse so he thought he could belittle you first up this morning.
nath
So what do you think about the posters who do it who haven’t said they are teachers?
Are they impudent upstarts?
C@t I thought you were off campaigning to save democracy and other humble activities?
zoomster
says:
Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 8:12 am
nath
So what do you think about the posters who do it who haven’t said they are teachers?
Are they impudent upstarts?
_______________________
Geez. forget it……I now hate how you correct him, happy?
I suspect that BK is in hiding – manufacturing a heavy duty foil hat and full body suit.
I have had a quick look at
The Australian
The Daily Telegraph
and
The Sydney Morning Herald
Almost wall to wall C.R.A.P.
Be well Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ BK Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ ☮
Scotland’s historic links with France and Europe. Beautifully written.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/william-dalrymple-brexit-is-not-only-economic-suicide-it-s-cultural-vandalism-1-4856096
First day of campaigning report.
My back hurts. My feet hurt. I don’t know how the candidates do it. All. The. Time.
Still, we got about 99 positive responses from the Tradies who were off to work early and only one, ‘Feck off!’ I honestly can’t understand how someone could get so worked up that early in the morning.
Still, as my son remarked, well, at least he noticed us! 🙂
Socrates
I thought you’d be interested in this piece by Michael Tomasky in the New York Times –
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2019/01/13/opinion/trump-impeachment-2020-election.amp.html
And for all that palaver about William’s report he still can’t get it right 🙂
At this moment it says:
“Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate”
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I went for 53/47 because Morrison was hardly seen over the break. (Sorry it’s a bit late – I had the best night’s sleep I’ve had for ages!).
Here’s the guts of the essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/overwhelming-majority-of-voters-support-pill-testing-guardian-essential-poll
Hamish McDonald tells us that Dutton insults our intelligence.
https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/pacific-solution-just-ask-fiji-20190114-p50r7z.html
Morrison’s “Stop the Boats” policy is an abusive, expensive disaster — and it hasn’t stopped them, says Jade Manson
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/did-scott-morrison-stop-the-boats,12277
Meanwhile David Wroe reports that the Australian Human Rights Commission has urged Parliament not to pass the new law in a submission to the intelligence and security committee.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/human-rights-watchdog-blasts-latest-changes-to-citizenship-laws-for-terrorists-20190114-p50r9c.html
Would Cathy McGowan help to sink Morrison over the refugee bill? That is if Morrison fronts up to parliament again.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-don-t-vote-until-i-vote-key-crossbencher-could-spare-scott-morrison-a-historic-vote-loss-20190114-p50r9z.html
A New South Wales Liberal branch president has declared war on the National party in the heart of Michael McCormack’s own seat, organising with Anyone But Nats to help defeat the Coalition partner at the NSW election.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/nsw-liberal-branch-president-declares-war-on-nationals-in-michael-mccormacks-seat
Theresa May appears to be on course for a crushing defeat in the House of Commons on Tuesday, as Britain’s bitterly divided MPs prepared to give their verdict on her Brexit deal in the “meaningful vote”.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/may-makes-final-case-for-brexit-deal-dont-let-the-people-down
Jenna Price wonders if Morrison passes the pub test.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/scott-morrison-board-shorts-and-passing-the-pub-test-20190114-p50ra2.html
Saudi Arabia has just revealed it has enough crude to pump at current rates for at least another 70 years. So much for peak oil.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/saudi-arabia-has-more-oil-than-we-may-ever-need-20190114-p50r60.html
The SMH editorial goes to a clear point of difference that Michael Daley has opened up on planning for Sydney’s growth.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/daley-right-to-focus-on-planning-for-sydney-s-growth-20190114-p50r9i.html
John Lord looks at narcissism and the LNP rabble.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/narcissism-and-the-lnp-rabble,12275
The CPSU’s Melissa Payne laments the level of domestic violence that is coming to the union’s attention and calls for action.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-need-a-change-and-we-need-it-fast-20190114-p50r7v.html
Jennifer Wilson writes that the list of Liberal National Party Federal Government atrocities is long and growing daily. It is fertilised by the combined manures of neoliberalism, nationalism, ignorance, incompetence and utter disregard for the fate of those who differ in any way from the prescribed white, heterosexual paradigm of Western civilisation.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/failing-australia-an-obituary-for-the-lnp,12278
According to The Australian engineers investigating defects at Sydney’s Opal Tower have raised doubts about errors in the design of key horizontal support beams. It doesn’t read well.
https://outline.com/37WbXV
Emma Kroen writes that insolvency experts are warning a potent cocktail of factors, including softening property prices and a federal election, will hit smaller construction companies and subcontractors hard in 2019.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/root-of-all-evil-payments-warning-for-construction-sector-20190114-p50r7g.html
Professor Ron Levy tells us that populism’s problems can be fixed by getting the public better-informed. And that’s actually possible.
https://theconversation.com/populisms-problems-can-be-fixed-by-getting-the-public-better-informed-and-thats-actually-possible-109720
The Greens have accused the federal government of hiding critical information from the Senate on why the Menindee Lakes were drained twice in the last four years, as investigations get under way into what caused around 1 million fish to die.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/murray-darling-fish-kill-greens-accuse-coalition-of-hiding-information-from-senate
This fish kill is a tragedy – but it is no surprise. It’s a failure of governance and policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/14/this-fish-kill-is-a-tragedy-but-it-is-no-surprise
The New Daily explains what’s behind the promises Clive Palmer has texted to one-third of voters.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/14/clive-palmer-spam-text/
The Australian Public Service Commission is moving to centralise merit lists for the most senior executive roles, as debate around how to identify and keep talented executives forms part of the independent review of the public service.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/apsc-moves-to-centralise-merit-lists-in-recruitment-overhaul-20190111-p50qrh.html
The power grid operator has called on energy companies to step-up generation to fill a reserve shortfall and avoid the risk of blackouts in Victoria, which is in the grip of a record heatwave.
https://www.outline.com/MJ9ZdE
Potentially deadly heat on Tuesday has sparked a “Code Red” alert in South Australia, amid dire warnings that catastrophic temperatures are set to become much more common.
https://outline.com/67BEJ5
Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that an uncharacteristically poor performance from Kmart in the December half and a near debt-free balance sheet pose some significant questions for Wesfarmers chief executive, Rob Scott, and his board.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/wesfarmers-experiences-a-kmart-glitch-as-its-post-coles-era-begins-20190114-p50r7w.html
The federal government would host competitive tenders to manage default superannuation investments for workers to try to deliver higher returns via a system involving the Future Fund, under an option being canvassed by the Morrison government.
https://www.outline.com/zgzhVm
Bloomberg wonders what would happen if Mueller proves Trump collusion and no one cares.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-if-mueller-proves-trump-collusion-and-no-one-cares-20190114-p50r61.html
Aspiring teachers will be barred from working in Victorian classrooms if they fail a literacy and numeracy test. Henrietta Cook looks at the test.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/teachers-must-now-pass-mandatory-literacy-numeracy-tests-20190114-p50rbh.html
Pressure is building on the Morrison government to beat Labor’s proposed $10 billion in accelerated tax breaks for capital expenditure that will reward manufacturers, oil and gas producers, miners and other firms.
https://www.outline.com/PFFVbN
I have to agree with much of what Melissa Singer has written here about slow walkers.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/the-private-hell-of-catching-public-transport-20190110-p50qpf.html
Sydney commuters will be able to catch driverless metro trains between Sydney’s north west and Chatswood as early as April or May after the first train successfully completed running on the entire length of the 36-kilometre line.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/driverless-train-runs-full-length-of-new-sydney-line-ahead-of-opening-20190114-p50raq.html
And for “Arsehole of the Week” we have . . .
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-on-trial-for-sexual-assault-of-child-faces-87-new-harassment-charges-20190114-p50rcd.html
Cartoon Corner
David Pope ridicules Morrison’s Australia Day dress standard. And it’s quite a shipwreck in the background!
A couple from Mark David.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw2Qi5mU8AAFsQz?format=jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw2QXIoUcAE7mqP?format=jpg
Cathy Wilcox details the dress standard.
As does John Shakespeare.
Peter Broelman and the NDB.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw2K044U8AAbaUz?format=jpg
From Matt Golding.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw19nZ8U8AAebCV?format=jpg
Oh dear!
Glen Le Lievre and Sky News.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DiMscWVUwAEGJTr?format=jpg
From the US.
nath @ #33 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 8:12 am
I have been.
Now, back at you, nath. Why aren’t you out looking for a job? You’re a healthy young man, so why don’t you get a job? There are plenty available for healthy young men. Or why aren’t you spending your time studying to get some qualifications? Earning or Learning? Or don’t you have some Mutual Obligation to do? Isn’t there a circus that needs a clown?
C@
Campaigning is a tough gig! However, one of the reasons I always put in the ‘for’ column was that I could eat all the chocolate I liked, because I was going to lose so much weight doorknocking it wouldn’t matter…
I bet she votes with Morrison.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/i-don-t-vote-until-i-vote-key-crossbencher-could-spare-scott-morrison-a-historic-vote-loss-20190114-p50r9z.html
Come on, C@, nath can’t even be bothered to vote.
lizzie
Seriously, I’m still trying to calm down after listening to an interview with her this morning. If any other MP showed a skerrick of her hubris, the media would hound them mercilessly.
C@tmomma
says:
Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 8:21 am
nath @ #33 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 8:12 am
C@t I thought you were off campaigning to save democracy and other humble activities?
I have been.
Now, back at you, nath. Why aren’t you out looking for a job? You’re a healthy young man, so why don’t you get a job? There are plenty available for healthy young men. Or why aren’t you spending your time studying to get some qualifications? Earning or Learning? Or don’t you have some Mutual Obligation to do? Isn’t there a circus that needs a clown?
______________________________________
I didn’t know commenting on PB precluded other forms of work. It takes approx. 1 second to alt-tab from my work files to this browser, then a minute or so to make a comment if I wish. But sure, imagine me as unemployed, broke, near death, in a wheelchair. Whatever pleases you.
zoomster says: Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 8:22 am
Campaigning is a tough gig! However, one of the reasons I always put in the ‘for’ column was that I could eat all the chocolate I liked, because I was going to lose so much weight doorknocking it wouldn’t matter…
*********************************************
Zoomster – it is a scientific fact that eating chocolate makes your clothes shrink …. 🙂
zoomster
A question of the Peter Principle, perhaps? 😆
zoomster @ #42 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 8:22 am
I came home and immediately ate a shortbread! before breakfast! 😆
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/rob-oakeshott-to-enter-federal-election-race-on-wednesday-20190114-p50rc7.html