Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

In the first new poll of the year, both major parties are up on the primary vote, yet their leaders’ disapproval ratings have shot upwards.

Essential Research is back in business, its first poll for the new year no change on Labor’s 53-47 lead in the final poll last year. Both major parties are on 38% on the primary votes, which is a two-point improvement for Labor and a one-point improvement for the Coalition. Minor party primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. In a spirit of seasonal goodwill, monthly leadership ratings find both leaders well up on disapproval – by five points in Morrison’s case to 39%, and four in Shorten’s case to 47% – while Morrison is up one on approval to 42% and Shorten is unchanged on 35%.

As related by The Guardian, further questions mostly focused on the recent far right rally in St Kilda, the most interesting finding being that 48% thought Scott Morrison “demonstrated poor leadership by not immediately condemning the rally, and those who attended it, in stronger terms”, compared with 36% who disagreed. Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate; 74% felt there was ”no place in Australian society for the use of racist and fascist symbols used by participants in the rally”, whereas 17% were apparently all in favour of them; and that 73% nonetheless felt that “Australians have the right to peacefully protest, no matter how extreme their views”, while 19% didn’t.

The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.

UPDATE: Full report here. The Greens are down a point to 10%, and One Nation are steady on 7%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,042 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. 48 hours and 35 tweets: Donald Trump’s lost weekend morphs into mad Monday morning meltdown

    President Donald Trump, un-buoyed by his former chief of staff John Kelly, went on a bender this past weekend, and America is left with the hangover. No, the Leader of the Free World’s drug of choice isn’t alcohol, it’s Twitter, and there was no one able to cut him off.

    The President isn’t binge watching, he’s binge tweeting.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/48-hours-35-tweets-donald-trumps-lost-weekend-morphs-mad-monday-morning-meltdown/

  2. Faced with the ‘greatest scandal’ in US history, what will the American people do?

    Donald Trump is not a Manchurian candidate.

    Unlike Frank Sinatra’s character in the 1962 film, Donald Trump has not been captured, tortured and in the process “brainwashed” by a foreign government. Instead, President Donald Trump has repeatedly chosen to advance the interests and goals of Russia and Vladimir Putin over those of the United States and the American people.

    As documented by David Cay Johnston, Craig Unger, Seth Abramson and other investigative journalists, political analysts and reporters, Donald Trump has maintained questionable relationships with Russia’s criminal underworld (who often operate in conjunction with Russia’s spy agencies) for several decades. He publicly colluded with Russia during the 2016 presidential campaign and requested that Putin’s agents steal Hillary Clinton’s emails. He has praised the murderous dictator Vladimir Putin as a “strong leader” while insulting and demeaning U.S. national security professionals by dismissing their findings about Russia’s interference in America’s elections and democracy. He continues to side with Putin against NATO and the Western alliance at almost every opportunity, and has even shared highly classified information with Russian diplomats.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/faced-greatest-scandal-us-history-will-american-people/

  3. Ex-NSA John Schindlers thoughtful column regarding the Mueller Investigation and why the public ‘unclassified’ version may be lacking in detail

    Everyone in the nation’s capital is waiting for the report to be issued by Robert S. Mueller, III and his Special Counsel investigation, reportedly by the spring. Some version of that report will reach the public, eventually, no matter how mightily the Trump administration tries to prevent its release.

    That said, the anti-Trump ‘Resistance’ ought to prepare itself for disappointment, since the unclassified version of the Mueller report they will someday see is destined to be lacking in detail. We already know that the Special Counsel inquiry possesses highly classified intelligence regarding Trump’s Moscow connections; the contents are reported to be devastating to the president and his retinue.

    However, such top-secret-plus intelligence will never wind up in the unclassified version of Mueller’s report due to the need to protect classified sources and methods. Unless America’s spy agencies are willing to let the world see their best espionage capabilities – something they have never done, with good reason – the Trump case will be no exception.

    Donald Trump, the Kremlin and the ghost of Alger Hiss

    https://spectator.us/donald-trump-kremlin-ghost-alger-hiss/

  4. Rasmussen poll shows Trump with lowest approval in a year

    A conservative-leaning poll released Monday showed President Trump with his lowest approval ratings in almost a year.

    The Rasmussen poll found that 43 percent of likely voters polled approve of Trump’s job performance, his lowest mark in the poll since January of 2018, when his approval was at 42 percent.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/425196-rasmussen-poll-shows-trump-with-lowest-approval-in-a-year?__twitter_impression=true

  5. Just to prove I do read William’s piece —

    ‘Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 22% saying it was appropriate…’

  6. Looking at the front page of the Guardian it’s clear they think the most important stories are the Essential Poll (naturally) and one from The Greens reporting the Gov’t is 6 weeks late releasing the reasons behind it allowing the Menindee Lakes to be drained, TWICE, in the past 4 years. (Cotton, anyone?)
    But over on the once great SMH the headline story is about …….. Tennis.
    In fact I had to check I wasn’t on the lifestyle page, because the only article about the greatest environmental crisis we’ve ever had in NSW is a day old opinion piece (but still worth reading).

    I won’t preempt BK with links.
    My complaint is about the lighter than air SMH, now run by Pete Costello. Well, maybe that explains it.

    Edited to fix error re time period

  7. ‘Ashlee Aldridge

    @Ashlee_Aldridge
    21h21 hours ago
    More
    Large media scrum breaks out in applause as @Indigocathy makes her announcement….’

    Exactly so. McGowan is successful because the media made her so.

  8. “The AFP considers this investigation finalised.”‘
    (Thanks Zoomster)
    Labor will go ballistic when parliament returns.
    My bet is with those who predict Morrison will call an early election. Too risky to allow even a single sitting day.

  9. Morning all. The poll is as good as Morrison could hope for, but still within MOE of no change at all.

    As for Trump, I dont doubt he colluded with Russia, but still doubt he will ever be impeached. The repugnants have too much to lose admitting what their Potus is really like.

  10. “The AFP considers this investigation finalised.”

    The obvious question is, why? Was no crime committed? So many reasons to shake up the AFP leadership. And of course, a federal Icac now.

  11. NSW Liberal branch president declares war on Nationals in Michael McCormack’s seat, saying they are a ‘barnacle on the backside’ of the Libs. “They get less votes than the Greens, yet they exercise more power over us.”

    When will the Liberals have the intestinal fortitude to split from the Nats?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/nsw-liberal-branch-president-declares-war-on-nationals-in-michael-mccormacks-seat?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  12. Scotland will be a failed state.

    Lower oil prices and production and a huge welfare bill. Currently subsidised (along with Wales & NI) by south east England.

  13. From the leader:

    The poll also find 63% support for pill testing, although the question was very particular about the specifics, specifying circumstances in which “trained counsellors provide risk-reduction advice informed by on-site laboratory analysis of people’s drugs”.

    nota bene – the specified circumstances are what happens.

  14. lizzie @ #19 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 7:44 am

    NSW Liberal branch president declares war on Nationals in Michael McCormack’s seat, saying they are a ‘barnacle on the backside’ of the Libs. “They get less votes than the Greens, yet they exercise more power over us.”

    When will the Liberals have the intestinal fortitude to split from the Nats?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/nsw-liberal-branch-president-declares-war-on-nationals-in-michael-mccormacks-seat?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    The tories & greens look a “good fit”.

    Why not just formalise it ?

  15. zoomster
    says:
    Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 7:52 am
    nath
    It is quite common for posters here to correct William’s posts.
    __________________________
    No, I like it because you said you were a teacher. I wasn’t having a go.

  16. Holden Hillbilly
    Scotland will be a failed state.

    Lower oil prices and production and a huge welfare bill. Currently subsidised (along with Wales & NI) by south east England.

    The UK has 22nd largest GDP/ capita, 80% of GDP is produced by services sector.
    England is the failed state if it leaves the EU, what happens when the City of London financial sector ups camp & moves to the main land?

  17. There is only one fire in the area and it is closer to me than BK. And it is contained. However it is in a bad location – there are 5 units on it – so perhaps he is assisting with bacon and eggs?

  18. zoomster
    says:
    Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 8:12 am
    nath
    So what do you think about the posters who do it who haven’t said they are teachers?
    Are they impudent upstarts?
    _______________________
    Geez. forget it……I now hate how you correct him, happy?

  19. I suspect that BK is in hiding – manufacturing a heavy duty foil hat and full body suit.
    I have had a quick look at
    The Australian
    The Daily Telegraph
    and
    The Sydney Morning Herald

    Almost wall to wall C.R.A.P.

    Be well Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ BK Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  20. Scotland’s historic links with France and Europe. Beautifully written.

    In truth, we’ve always seen you as a lifeline, a counterbalance to our noisy neighbours to the south. It was they who voted for Brexit. Honestly – we didn’t. Sixty-two per cent of us voted Remain. We always knew that we would not be taking back control of anything: instead, we are ceding control, and losing our best friends and natural allies in the process. It’s about much more than the money. It’s about who we are – where we come from, what we believe in. It’s about who our real friends are, who we can trust. Who we love.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/william-dalrymple-brexit-is-not-only-economic-suicide-it-s-cultural-vandalism-1-4856096

  21. First day of campaigning report.

    My back hurts. My feet hurt. I don’t know how the candidates do it. All. The. Time.

    Still, we got about 99 positive responses from the Tradies who were off to work early and only one, ‘Feck off!’ I honestly can’t understand how someone could get so worked up that early in the morning.

    Still, as my son remarked, well, at least he noticed us! 🙂

  22. And for all that palaver about William’s report he still can’t get it right 🙂

    At this moment it says:

    “Only 22% thought it appropriate for Senator Fraser Anning to “use taxpayer money to attend the rally”, with 66% saying it was appropriate”

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I went for 53/47 because Morrison was hardly seen over the break. (Sorry it’s a bit late – I had the best night’s sleep I’ve had for ages!).

    Here’s the guts of the essential poll.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/overwhelming-majority-of-voters-support-pill-testing-guardian-essential-poll
    Hamish McDonald tells us that Dutton insults our intelligence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/pacific-solution-just-ask-fiji-20190114-p50r7z.html
    Morrison’s “Stop the Boats” policy is an abusive, expensive disaster — and it hasn’t stopped them, says Jade Manson
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/did-scott-morrison-stop-the-boats,12277
    Meanwhile David Wroe reports that the Australian Human Rights Commission has urged Parliament not to pass the new law in a submission to the intelligence and security committee.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/human-rights-watchdog-blasts-latest-changes-to-citizenship-laws-for-terrorists-20190114-p50r9c.html
    Would Cathy McGowan help to sink Morrison over the refugee bill? That is if Morrison fronts up to parliament again.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/i-don-t-vote-until-i-vote-key-crossbencher-could-spare-scott-morrison-a-historic-vote-loss-20190114-p50r9z.html
    A New South Wales Liberal branch president has declared war on the National party in the heart of Michael McCormack’s own seat, organising with Anyone But Nats to help defeat the Coalition partner at the NSW election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/nsw-liberal-branch-president-declares-war-on-nationals-in-michael-mccormacks-seat
    Theresa May appears to be on course for a crushing defeat in the House of Commons on Tuesday, as Britain’s bitterly divided MPs prepared to give their verdict on her Brexit deal in the “meaningful vote”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/may-makes-final-case-for-brexit-deal-dont-let-the-people-down
    Jenna Price wonders if Morrison passes the pub test.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/scott-morrison-board-shorts-and-passing-the-pub-test-20190114-p50ra2.html
    Saudi Arabia has just revealed it has enough crude to pump at current rates for at least another 70 years. So much for peak oil.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/saudi-arabia-has-more-oil-than-we-may-ever-need-20190114-p50r60.html
    The SMH editorial goes to a clear point of difference that Michael Daley has opened up on planning for Sydney’s growth.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/daley-right-to-focus-on-planning-for-sydney-s-growth-20190114-p50r9i.html
    John Lord looks at narcissism and the LNP rabble.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/narcissism-and-the-lnp-rabble,12275
    The CPSU’s Melissa Payne laments the level of domestic violence that is coming to the union’s attention and calls for action.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-need-a-change-and-we-need-it-fast-20190114-p50r7v.html
    Jennifer Wilson writes that the list of Liberal National Party Federal Government atrocities is long and growing daily. It is fertilised by the combined manures of neoliberalism, nationalism, ignorance, incompetence and utter disregard for the fate of those who differ in any way from the prescribed white, heterosexual paradigm of Western civilisation.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/failing-australia-an-obituary-for-the-lnp,12278
    According to The Australian engineers investigating defects at Sydney’s Opal Tower have raised doubts about errors in the design of key horizontal support beams. It doesn’t read well.
    https://outline.com/37WbXV
    Emma Kroen writes that insolvency experts are warning a potent cocktail of factors, including softening property prices and a federal election, will hit smaller construction companies and subcontractors hard in 2019.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/root-of-all-evil-payments-warning-for-construction-sector-20190114-p50r7g.html
    Professor Ron Levy tells us that populism’s problems can be fixed by getting the public better-informed. And that’s actually possible.
    https://theconversation.com/populisms-problems-can-be-fixed-by-getting-the-public-better-informed-and-thats-actually-possible-109720
    The Greens have accused the federal government of hiding critical information from the Senate on why the Menindee Lakes were drained twice in the last four years, as investigations get under way into what caused around 1 million fish to die.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/murray-darling-fish-kill-greens-accuse-coalition-of-hiding-information-from-senate
    This fish kill is a tragedy – but it is no surprise. It’s a failure of governance and policy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/14/this-fish-kill-is-a-tragedy-but-it-is-no-surprise
    The New Daily explains what’s behind the promises Clive Palmer has texted to one-third of voters.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/14/clive-palmer-spam-text/
    The Australian Public Service Commission is moving to centralise merit lists for the most senior executive roles, as debate around how to identify and keep talented executives forms part of the independent review of the public service.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/apsc-moves-to-centralise-merit-lists-in-recruitment-overhaul-20190111-p50qrh.html
    The power grid operator has called on energy companies to step-up generation to fill a reserve shortfall and avoid the risk of blackouts in Victoria, which is in the grip of a record heatwave.
    https://www.outline.com/MJ9ZdE
    Potentially deadly heat on Tuesday has sparked a “Code Red” alert in South Australia, amid dire warnings that catastrophic temperatures are set to become much more common.
    https://outline.com/67BEJ5
    Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that an uncharacteristically poor performance from Kmart in the December half and a near debt-free balance sheet pose some significant questions for Wesfarmers chief executive, Rob Scott, and his board.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/wesfarmers-experiences-a-kmart-glitch-as-its-post-coles-era-begins-20190114-p50r7w.html
    The federal government would host competitive tenders to manage default superannuation investments for workers to try to deliver higher returns via a system involving the Future Fund, under an option being canvassed by the Morrison government.
    https://www.outline.com/zgzhVm
    Bloomberg wonders what would happen if Mueller proves Trump collusion and no one cares.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-if-mueller-proves-trump-collusion-and-no-one-cares-20190114-p50r61.html
    Aspiring teachers will be barred from working in Victorian classrooms if they fail a literacy and numeracy test. Henrietta Cook looks at the test.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/teachers-must-now-pass-mandatory-literacy-numeracy-tests-20190114-p50rbh.html
    Pressure is building on the Morrison government to beat Labor’s proposed $10 billion in accelerated tax breaks for capital expenditure that will reward manufacturers, oil and gas producers, miners and other firms.
    https://www.outline.com/PFFVbN
    I have to agree with much of what Melissa Singer has written here about slow walkers.
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/the-private-hell-of-catching-public-transport-20190110-p50qpf.html
    Sydney commuters will be able to catch driverless metro trains between Sydney’s north west and Chatswood as early as April or May after the first train successfully completed running on the entire length of the 36-kilometre line.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/driverless-train-runs-full-length-of-new-sydney-line-ahead-of-opening-20190114-p50raq.html
    And for “Arsehole of the Week” we have . . .
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/man-on-trial-for-sexual-assault-of-child-faces-87-new-harassment-charges-20190114-p50rcd.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope ridicules Morrison’s Australia Day dress standard. And it’s quite a shipwreck in the background!

    A couple from Mark David.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw2Qi5mU8AAFsQz?format=jpg
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw2QXIoUcAE7mqP?format=jpg
    Cathy Wilcox details the dress standard.

    As does John Shakespeare.

    Peter Broelman and the NDB.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw2K044U8AAbaUz?format=jpg
    From Matt Golding.




    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw19nZ8U8AAebCV?format=jpg
    Oh dear!

    Glen Le Lievre and Sky News.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DiMscWVUwAEGJTr?format=jpg

    From the US.




  24. nath @ #33 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 8:12 am

    C@t I thought you were off campaigning to save democracy and other humble activities?

    I have been.

    Now, back at you, nath. Why aren’t you out looking for a job? You’re a healthy young man, so why don’t you get a job? There are plenty available for healthy young men. Or why aren’t you spending your time studying to get some qualifications? Earning or Learning? Or don’t you have some Mutual Obligation to do? Isn’t there a circus that needs a clown?

  25. C@

    Campaigning is a tough gig! However, one of the reasons I always put in the ‘for’ column was that I could eat all the chocolate I liked, because I was going to lose so much weight doorknocking it wouldn’t matter…

  26. I bet she votes with Morrison.

    One of the MPs whose vote could consign the Morrison government to a humiliating loss on the floor of Parliament is unsure whether to back a bill to fast-track medical treatment for refugees on Manus Island and Nauru.

    Independent Cathy McGowan, who announced on Monday she will not recontest this year’s election, told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age she would not make a final decision on the legislation until it comes to a vote when Parliament resumes in February – giving the Coalition an opportunity to avoid what loomed as the first serious defeat of a government in the House of Representatives in 90 years.

    Ms McGowan will meet Prime Minister Scott Morrison in Sydney on Tuesday to discuss a range of issues about regional Australia but stressed the medical transfer bill is not listed as a topic for discussion.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/i-don-t-vote-until-i-vote-key-crossbencher-could-spare-scott-morrison-a-historic-vote-loss-20190114-p50r9z.html

  27. lizzie

    Seriously, I’m still trying to calm down after listening to an interview with her this morning. If any other MP showed a skerrick of her hubris, the media would hound them mercilessly.

  28. C@tmomma
    says:
    Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 8:21 am
    nath @ #33 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 8:12 am
    C@t I thought you were off campaigning to save democracy and other humble activities?
    I have been.
    Now, back at you, nath. Why aren’t you out looking for a job? You’re a healthy young man, so why don’t you get a job? There are plenty available for healthy young men. Or why aren’t you spending your time studying to get some qualifications? Earning or Learning? Or don’t you have some Mutual Obligation to do? Isn’t there a circus that needs a clown?
    ______________________________________
    I didn’t know commenting on PB precluded other forms of work. It takes approx. 1 second to alt-tab from my work files to this browser, then a minute or so to make a comment if I wish. But sure, imagine me as unemployed, broke, near death, in a wheelchair. Whatever pleases you.

  29. zoomster says: Tuesday, January 15, 2019 at 8:22 am

    Campaigning is a tough gig! However, one of the reasons I always put in the ‘for’ column was that I could eat all the chocolate I liked, because I was going to lose so much weight doorknocking it wouldn’t matter…

    *********************************************

    Zoomster – it is a scientific fact that eating chocolate makes your clothes shrink …. 🙂

  30. zoomster @ #42 Tuesday, January 15th, 2019 – 8:22 am

    C@

    Campaigning is a tough gig! However, one of the reasons I always put in the ‘for’ column was that I could eat all the chocolate I liked, because I was going to lose so much weight doorknocking it wouldn’t matter…

    I came home and immediately ate a shortbread! before breakfast! 😆

  31. The Morrison government is at risk of losing one of its safest seats, with former independent MP Rob Oakeshott launching a carefully plotted return to federal politics after six years on the sidelines.

    Mr Oakeshott will on Wednesday announce his decision to contest the northern NSW seat of Cowper, which the Nationals hold on what should be an impenetrable margin of 12.6 per cent but could lose through a potent combination of the government’s poll slump and the retirement of popular sitting member Luke Hartsuyker.

    The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age have been told Mr Oakeshott will campaign on a platform of health, education and highways in the regional electorate, which stretches from Port Macquarie in the south to Coffs Harbour in the north.


    Mr Oakeshott has been studying medicine at the University of NSW campus in Port Macquarie.

    Critics of Mr Oakeshott claim he only runs in federal elections to secure a share of public funding. He picked up $71,477 following the 2016 poll, however the Nationals and Labor both believe he is running in 2019 because he has a strong chance of winning the seat.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/rob-oakeshott-to-enter-federal-election-race-on-wednesday-20190114-p50rc7.html

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