BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Vote early, vote often. Michael Cohen is not the canary Dotard wants..

    “The Journal said Cohen commissioned John Gauger, who runs RedFinch Solutions, to write a computer script to repeatedly vote for Trump in a February 2015 Drudge Report poll on potential Republican candidates.

    The move came as Trump was preparing to enter the 2016 presidential election race, the newspaper reported.

    Trump ranked fifth in the Drudge Report poll with about 24,000 votes, or 5 per cent of the total, according to the Journal.

    Cohen also commissioned Gauger to do the same for a 2014 CNBC online poll identifying the country’s top business leaders, although Trump was unable to break the top 100 candidates, the Journal reported.

    Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani said the president was unaware of the rigging.

    “The president has no knowledge of the polls being rigged,” Giuliani said in an interview with Reuters.”

  2. JBish not get much love in this WA smack down….

    “Bruised by last year’s leadership spill in which she secured only 11 votes in the three-way contest between herself, Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison, Bishop is understood to be in no mood to help the party that she feels has betrayed and humiliated her.

    Sources say that she is barely speaking to her Federal parliamentary colleagues from WA, none of whom backed her to become leader even though she was the most popular choice among voters. This is despite her being told ahead of the ballot that she would lose, and should reconsider nominating.

    One party figure described her as “divorced” from the WA branch, hurt and angered by the ballot result.

    On the flipside, her colleagues are disappointed with how she has reacted since the damaging leadership spill in August, saying her thinly veiled criticisms of the Government are petulant and unhelpful.

    The vote was tactical, not personal, they argue. Bishop, while popular, was also judged by her parliamentary colleagues to be too much of a risk. She has shied away from expressing a position on politically difficult questions throughout her career and is seen by some as lacking political nous — her decision to run for leader being an example.”

  3. Michael Cohen: I rigged online polls ‘at the direction of and for the sole benefit’ of Trump

    Former Trump “fixer” Michael Cohen on Thursday admitted that he paid Jerry Falwell Jr.’s technology officer cash in exchange for rigging online polls to help Donald Trump.

    What’s more, Cohen said that he did it under orders from Trump himself.

    A Wall Street Journal report from earlier on Thursday claimed that Cohen handed tech businessman John Gauger, who is now the chief information office at Jerry Falwell Jr.’s Liberty University, a bag full of cash in exchange for his help rigging online polls in early 2015.

    This is not the first time that Cohen has implicated Trump in wrongdoing, as he pleaded guilty to making illegal campaign contributions via hush-money payments to the president’s former mistresses under orders from Trump himself.

  4. This timeline shows the damning evolution of Trump’s Russia collusion denials

    Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani on Wednesday moved the goal posts during a stunning CNN interview in which he allowed that some members of President Donald Trump’s campaign may have conspired with the Russian government.

    Washington Post reporter Aaron Blake has taken a look back at past defenses of the Trump campaign’s dealings with Russia, and he found that Giuliani’s admission is the largest departure yet from the “no collusion” line of defense, but it’s far from the only one.

    Rudy Giuliani just contradicted nearly all the Trump team’s past collusion denials

  5. ‘The vote was tactical, not personal, they argue. Bishop, while popular, was also judged by her parliamentary colleagues to be too much of a risk. She has shied away from expressing a position on politically difficult questions throughout her career and is seen by some as lacking political nous — her decision to run for leader being an example.”’

    I do like the circular logic of this – she shouldn’t run for leader because running for leaders shows she has no political nous…

  6. Trump retaliates against Pelosi by canceling upcoming overseas Congressional trip

    President Donald Trump just revealed and blocked Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s classified trip with Congressional members to visit troops in Afghanistan over the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday weekend because he said she needs to be in Washington to negotiate with him.

    “Due to the Shutdown, I am sorry to inform you that your trip to Brussels, Egypt and Afghanistan has been postponed. We will reschedule this seven-day excursion when the Shutdown is over,” the letter opens.

    Scott Dworkin‏Verified account @funder ·

    BREAKING: Trump just sent a letter to Speaker Pelosi saying he won’t let her fly on a US Gov’t plane to Afghanistan, said she could fly commercially into a war-zone. This trip wasn’t public, Trump leaked it in this letter, making it unsafe. Trump is the biggest danger to America.

  7. Craig Emerson
    8h8 hours ago

    Five indigenous teenage girls take their own lives in nine days and the mainstream media and twitter are engaged in a culture war over an advertisement for razor blades. What happened to our nation’s soul?

  8. Rick Wilson‏Verified account @TheRickWilson

    Pelosi should troll back:

    “Mr. President:

    Thank you for your letter. As I will not be visiting our troops in Afghanistan, I will be iin DC asking my committee chairman to subpoena your tax returns, those of your children, and all of your business entities.

    Love ya. Mean it.”

  9. Morning all

    Really hoping that the police apprehend the despicable person who attacked and killed 21 yo Israeli international student a couple of days ago, not too far from my neck of woods.

    It has really knocked the stuffing out of me. So sad….

  10. Read this report. Morrison responds with prevarication.

    “I urged your predecessor repeatedly to honour his commitment to clean energy,” Mr Bainimarama said on Thursday night in Suva.

    “From where we are sitting, we cannot imagine how the interests of any single industry can be placed above the welfare of Pacific peoples and vulnerable people in the world over.

    “Rising seas threaten whole communities, forcing them to endure the trauma of relocating from land they’ve endured for generations.

    “Fijian farmers are watching their crops perish in soil that has been spoiled by the heightened salinity that is associated with sea level rise.”

  11. Seriously is Lindsay Graham a double agent?
    He appears to be playing a dangerous game

    Quote Tweet
    Lindsey Graham
    President Trump denying Speaker Pelosi military travel to visit our troops in Afghanistan, our allies in Egypt and NATO is also inappropriate.

  12. Barrie Cassidy on Twitter has drawn attention to Derryn Hinch’s response to the recent murder (I won’t quote it as it is cruel). His tweet may possibly cause a mistrial and will hurt her relatives, who have asked that details not be made public. Anything for publicity for the Human Headline.

  13. Victoria @ #16 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 7:33 am

    Seriously is Lindsay Graham a double agent?
    He appears to be playing a dangerous game

    Quote Tweet
    Lindsey Graham
    President Trump denying Speaker Pelosi military travel to visit our troops in Afghanistan, our allies in Egypt and NATO is also inappropriate.

    Cue Trump getting Lindsey Graham in for a Hamberder lunch and a Powerpoint presentation of the kompromat he has on him again…

  14. Something for Scrott to ponder as he plans the embassy move.

    Al-Shabaab: Kenya Attack Revenge for Trump’s Jerusalem Policy

    Somali-based al-Shabaab has issued a statement Wednesday saying that their attack in Kenya the day prior was targeted at the United States, and was revenge for President Trump recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

    Though not directly related to US policy in eastern Africa, the Jerusalem policy is broadly unpopular across the Muslim world. Though escalating US strikes on Somalia is already an explanation, al-Shabaab likely believes that tying the attack to Jerusalem will lend them more sympathy across the world.

    The 20-hour siege by al-Shabaab has left at least 21 confirmed dead, with 50 others reportedly in the hotel complex at the time and so far unaccounted for.

  15. C@t

    Yes there is that. But Lindsay Graham and Carter page are two people in this imbroglio who have always given me double agent vibes which I can’t shake off

  16. sprocket_ @ #2 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 6:17 am

    Dotard strikes back at Nancy Pelosi, how humiliating is this for the USA?



  17. PuffyTMD

    Aggressive, uncompromising. Has to concentrate hard to achieve the ‘right’ number of spikes.
    No sign of imagination or artistic flair. Ambitious, egotistic.

  18. Victoria @ #22 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 7:45 am


    Yes there is that. But Lindsay Graham and Carter page are two people in this imbroglio who have always given me double agent vibes which I can’t shake off

    And Corey Lewandoski. Hasn’t been charged with anything yet even though he was at the heart of the Trump campaign until he shoved a female reporter. Very strange indeed.

  19. lizzie @ #24 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 7:53 am


    Aggressive, uncompromising. Has to concentrate hard to achieve the ‘right’ number of spikes.
    No sign of imagination or artistic flair. Ambitious, egotistic.

    And signed not with a pen but a Sharpie! The guy has obvious self-esteem issues. I guess it happens when you are born with a penis that looks like a mushroom. 😉

  20. Hinch needs to understand that he is no longer a washed out drunk shock jock on radio 3AW in Melbourne but a Senator and must conduct himself accordingly.

  21. For those who missed the Dawn Patrol in the previous thread (William will go to any lengths to gazzump me! 🙂

    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    In a concerning contribution John Hewson concludes with, “We have all the elements, globally and domestically, for a major economic and political crisis. Not if, but when. She’ll be right? No she won’t.”
    In an interesting op-ed Shadow Finance Minister Jim Chalmers outlines what Labor’s approach to finance will be if it wins the election.
    In a wide ranging article Richo says that for all those who have sought to criticise Bill Shorten, he has not put a foot wrong in a long, long time. He should say little over the next few months because whenever the focus is on the government it seems to come up with an Andrew Broad or a Barnaby Joyce to rob it of clear air.
    Shane Wright reckons the dead fish might stink up the election campaign. The SA Royal Commission report is due to be dropped in two weeks and there is also the Productivity Commission report that will inform the debate.
    The Greens will introduce legislation to establish a royal commission into the mismanagement of the Murray-Darling Basin when parliament returns in February, in the wake of the massive fish kill at Menindee last week.
    Continued reduction of flows from the Darling River will result in one of the worst environmental catastrophes we’ll see in Australia. Professor Fran Sheldon from Griffith University’s Australian Rivers Institute reports.
    The Australian tells us how the Ken Hayne grenade is set to explode.
    Clive Palmer has vowed to plunge an extraordinary $50 million into his controversial federal election campaign, in a cash splash that could outstrip Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten but potentially fail to secure a single seat in Parliament for his fledgling United Australia Party.
    Shane Wright writes that a drop in home loans taken out across the country has prompted more warnings of further falls in house prices, with increasing interest from first-time buyers unable to offset dwindling numbers of investors.
    Stephen Bartholomeusz says that the equanimity with which markets, particularly the UK markets, have digested the Brexit-induced turmoil in the UK parliament is striking, and perhaps perplexing.
    European trade officials are digging in over a fight about whether Australian producers can keep using household food names such as prosecco and feta, as senior government ministers accelerate a $100 billion agreement with the European Union despite the stand-off.
    The London Telegraph is trumpeting that the markets have spoken – the Brexit dream is over.
    This reader in politics blames David Cameron for getting the UK into this Brexit mess.
    Nicky Ison writes that Tony Abbott played us for fools on electricity prices and asks if we will be played again.
    Doctors have blamed falling numbers of GPs seeing patients in nursing homes on poorly trained nurses and low Medicare rebates.
    David Jones is the latest retailer to confess to a weak Christmas amid gathering evidence that penny-pinching consumers shopped early at November sales and then stayed away from the shops during the festive rush.
    It is shaping up as a watershed year for the telecommunications industry thanks to several moments of truth in technology, capital expenditure and regulation.
    Australia’s family favourite food brands are preparing to reduce their serving sizes or hike up their prices as the crippling drought, high labour costs and increased energy prices grip the nation’s food manufacturing sector. Consumers are being warned tough economic times could soon impact the weekly shop, as iconic Australian companies consider price rises, shrinking packing sizes or reducing their product range to avoid moving offshore.
    Authorities are pleading with Canberrans to limit their electricity usage today as likely record-breaking temperatures push ACT and NSW power networks to their limits.
    Australia’s union watchdog accidentally leaked secret emails from a confidential whistleblower in an embarrassing mix-up last year. Internal documents show the Registered Organisations Commission, which investigates union malfeasance, received a tip-off about the conduct of a “senior official” last year.
    The Home Affairs Department has spent $2.76 million on external legal services in the prolonged dispute at the industrial umpire between bosses and staff over pay and conditions. External legal costs for the department and the main public sector union have together reached more than $3 million since the Fair Work Commission ordered strikes to end and later began arbitrating the workplace dispute in November 2016.
    A quartet of experts in The Conversation explain how the saga of Opal Tower, the 36-storey Sydney apartment building evacuated on Christmas Eve after frightening cracking, has helped to expose the deep cracks in Australia’s approach to building apartments.
    Jenna Price explains why we need even stronger protections against banks and superannuation outfits.
    This investment house is betting on further loss of value of aged care companies.
    The Aged Care royal commission kicks off today as more and more bad stories emerge.
    More than $1 billion worth of building projects will be completed in the Adelaide CBD in 2019 as the skyline of the city continues to rapidly change. In addition, there is over $2.9 billion of developments either already on the way or set to begin construction this year as Adelaide begins to bridge the crane cap it has with other Australian cities.
    In a contentious interview, the President’s lawyer Rudi Giuliani appeared to contradict his own past statements about collusion as well as what Trump and his supporters have repeatedly asserted.
    The Wall Street Journal has reported that Cohen had paid the data firm Redfinch Solutions to manipulate two public opinion polls in favour of Trump ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
    The El Chapo trial shows why a wall won’t stop drugs from crossing the US-Mexico border.
    The Trump administration may have separated thousands of migrant children from their parents at the border for up to a year before family separation was a publicly known practice, according to a stunning government review of the health department’s role in family separation.
    How “erotic capital” can help (or harm) one’s career.
    Andrew Webster writes that rugby league players have been sweating bullets this week about which “funny video sent to a few mates on WhatsApp” will find its way into a much wider, more public domain than they ever intended.
    I Think Bernard Tomic deserves nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope has some heat wave tips.$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/0ff763dc13216230981abf8a53f119224ce8fdbc.jpg
    Mark David has found an MDB solution for Morrison.
    Cathy Wilcox on the Gillette ad drama$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/667defa9abe2fb9a24287f100b54a6b4a32017f7.jpg
    From the absolutely prolific Matt Golding!$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/3c234e61a9b12df3d038722414ba5713801007c3.jpg$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/4aef75c160ed06c0362368e7cb47a40baca37efe.jpg$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/df28ccb0f7a9c2205579db5631d933cc4fabf29b.jpg$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/eedc3b01fb74e04bec80d135c42f241080af031c.jpg$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/5838f0eac87e52336b8fdccb19bd62d66e0fff77.jpg$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/8842e6e15201f21e013cb5efaba47847e04e11cd.jpg$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/61f962f9dfb2a4ec7be8aacb56c63f0fcd103145.jpg$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/d08c4e6f20aaa9df763c2d712f2d63fef56707c0.jpg
    An electoral trophy from Simon Letch.$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/434e23be622cd7952cf728f0b21f6742174fa23d.jpg
    Jim Pavlidis and waste management.$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto%2Cdpr_auto/1759d59a3b807c00ac2b56c645f2767df47ec8f6.jpg
    Zanetti is still getting off on the culture war.
    Jon Kudelka sets Shorten off on his bus tour.

    From the US.

  22. From President Obama’s former speech writer:

    Jon Favreau
    The Trump letter is useful in the sense that anyone who tells you it’s shrewd or savvy is someone whose political analysis you can safely ignore.

    There’s also this little tidbit of information to add to the mix:

    Michael Nardozzi
    Replying to
    Apparently it was a bipartisan CODEL and they were like en route to the airport. Cellphones be rung according to Fox. Hill, Pentagon, White House.

    And I love the perspicacity of this comment:

    Antony Max Hernandez
    Replying to
    Let’s be honest, those same people that think this letter is shrewd or savvy are the same mouthbreathing trash that defecated bloody ice cubes of rage over a razor commercial that reminds men to be nice to people.

  23. Pelosi’s trip was to obtain ‘critical national security’ info — and Trump didn’t even get locations right: Speaker’s aide

    Pelosi’s chief of staff Drew Hammill tweeted that on the Brussels arm of the trip, which was required for pilot rest, the California Democrat and her delegation were going to “meet with top NATO commanders, U.S. military leaders and key allies–to affirm the United States’ ironclad commitment to the NATO alliance.”

    Along with expressing “appreciation and thanks” to military service members, the trip was also intended “to obtain critical national security and intelligence briefings from those on the front lines,” Hammill tweeted.

  24. ‘The childish tantrum continues’: Internet torches Trump’s ridiculous attempt to punish Nancy Pelosi

    CNN’s Jim Acosta rips Trump’s ‘childish’ response to Pelosi: DC has ‘officially become a playground’

    Democratic Congressman rips Trump as a ‘man-baby’ for retaliating against Nancy Pelosi

  25. C@t

    Good point. 🙂

    Here’s one response to Hinch.

    That Dr Sheep Person
    5m5 minutes ago

    Here’s feedback from one woman. I don’t need to have a man on Twitter detail the atrocities of another woman’s murder. You have no right to publicly force these details on me. You are drowning in your self righteous self importance.

  26. With respect to the brutal killing of young girl, the police are certain that the t shirt and cap located some distance from where she was found, belongs to offender.
    If this guy is in system, it should not take too long to get a DNA hit on him.
    Also, CCTV in area and on the tram could give clues to his identity via the clothing that was discarded.
    In any event, They need to get this person out of community asap.

  27. But Hillary was supposed to be the greater threat to an outbreak of war!!

    Pentagon officials have also been unnerved by requests from the White House National Security Council, which continues to ask the Pentagon for options to attack Iran. Military planners CNN has spoken to say these requests are concerning since there is no real understanding of how Iran might react — or exactly what military objective the Trump Administration is trying to achieve. It’s the ultimate worry: the White House orders some type of strike, perhaps against Iranian-backed fighters in Syria, and Tehran retaliates in a counterattack.

  28. Trump just wants a war to improve his dismal approval ratings. That’s how cynically opportunistic he is. No regard for the consequences.

  29. Lizzie

    Person is spot on re Hinch.

    This occurred in my part of world and I happen to have daughter turning 21 in a few weeks.
    My daughter was regularly catching the tram on that route when our trains were suspended due to infrastructure works.
    I would drop her off at tram stop and then pick her up again on side street.
    She was working in city with 6 am starts, so I was dropping her off at 4,30 am in morning and watched until she got on tram.
    Yet when she was catching train I just dropped her off and left.
    Reason being is that the station was patrolled by protective service officers.

    It is so very sad ….

  30. C@t

    Trump only cares about himself. Barely cares about his own children apart from Ivanka.
    He is an oxygen thief.

    What upsets me the most is that people who support him are on some level mirroring themselves. Self centred useless pieces of crapola

  31. Giuliani, realising he may have put his foot in it yesterday has now tried to clarify his remarks.

    In a written statement, as well as in a telephone interview with The Washington Post, Giuliani said he can speak only for his client, the president, and not for those who worked on the Trump campaign, adding that his knowledge is limited to Trump’s actions.

    “I represent only President Trump not the Trump campaign,” Giuliani’s statement read. “There was no collusion by President Trump in any way, shape or form. Likewise, I have no knowledge of any collusion by any of the thousands of people who worked on the campaign.”

    The problem is that everyone knows he’s just trying to distance him and Trump from all those who have been ensnared by Mueller when previously he has been adamant that nobody colluded with Russia. And he has always talked about the campaign from what I’ve read.

  32. Kaitlan Collins (CNN WH correspondent):
    WH officials, including Mulvaney, began discussing canceling Pelosi’s trip this a.m., two people said. They felt caught off guard by her letter and POTUS has been frustrated by coverage, asking why it looked like Dems had upper hand. Aides agreed this was the perfect response.

    Reply from Matthew Millar (MSNBC Justice and Security Analyst):

    Matthew Miller
    It’s actually hard to think of a political strategy dumber than canceling Congressional visits to American troops in war zones while sending Cabinet officials and WH staffers to hobnob with the global elite in Davos.

    A global elite which will include Russian oligarchs like Oleg Deripaska.

  33. Giuliani will keep trying to muddy the waters of public opinion. Unfortunately for his client, the law marches on and evidence is used to make a decision, not a poll.

  34. The story about Cohen rigging polls for Trump just gets more ridiculous. The guy who was paid to do it says he was promised $50,000 for his efforts, but when he fronted at Trump Tower to collect payment Cohen presented him with a Walmart bag containing between $12,000 and $13,000 and a boxing glove!

    I’m beginning to wonder how these fools have been able to get away with their duplicity all these years.

  35. ‘How much risk are you willing to take?’ Military brass terrified of Trump

    As President Donald Trump’s erratic behavior continues unabated, top military officials have expressed their unease to CNN.

    The sources, which remained anonymous due to military restrictions on public statements, said that they’re often kept in the dark about decisions that involve top defense matters.

    They’ve also bristled at attacks on intelligence agencies and feel more than ever that their jobs are being politicized, CNN continued.

    “We can jump 10 feet high when a President tells us to, but we need to ask when do you want it done? How much risk are you willing to take?” one top official said.

  36. Question (AnonBlock)
    Thursday, January 17th, 2019 – 7:52 pm
    Comment #1882

    Andrew is right Don,
    It is impossible for meat to have a smaller footprint, because it consumes a lot before we get to eat it. Cows would have to have a 100% food-energy-in/food-energy-out ratio just to break even. They have nowhere near that.

    This is false equivalence.

    You are assuming that the land could have been used for crops. Much grazing land is not at all suitable for crops, and would otherwise lie fallow.

    Some of our basalt country, for instance, which is fertile but rocky, is quite unsuitable for broad acre agriculture.

    In addition, there are not nearly the inputs of machinery and diesel to till the land, sow the crops, and harvest them.

  37. Sally McManus
    43m43 minutes ago

    Scott Morrison never went around in baseball hats, shorts & football T-Shirts before he became PM. Before he was always in suits. It’s like the old Scott Morrison never existed

    He thinks it shows he’s “stepping up” to be a true blue Aussie. We need a PM, not a cipher.

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