BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. Cotton has long been spoken of as a key to northern development, but commercial quantities have never been harvested in the NT.

    Now, as debate rages about growing cotton in drought-ridden eastern states, NT farmers and researchers are throwing their support behind the crop and putting seeds in the ground.

    The Top End’s more reliable wet season rainfall, its vast undeveloped land and climate have all attracted the attention of cotton growers from southern states as NT farmers look to diversify.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-01-18/nt-cotton-industry-starts-to-emerge-as-farmers-look-north/10722180?smid=ABCRural-Twitter_Organic&WT.tsrc=Twitter_Organic&sf206174770=1

  2. As President Donald Trump’s erratic behavior continues unabated, top military officials have expressed their unease to CNN.

    Trump announcing details to the world of Pelosi’s trip ahead of her scheduled departure is a violation of all security protocols.

  4. Max Boot’s thoughts:

    “There needs to be some adult supervision in Washington but there’s very little. There’s a lot of political gamesmanship and the nation’s business is not getting done,” Boot told CNN’s Brooke Baldwin on Thursday. “President Trump is ultimately responsible for this. He set this fiasco in motion. There’s not a border crisis and even if there [was] the wall would not be the solution.”

    Boot added, “Now we’re having the government shut down for almost four weeks because of this unreasonable demand. This is just the height of irresponsibility for the president.”

    Boot then explained that Republicans and Democrats should act like adults and not wait for Trump to reopen the government.

    “Why is everybody dependent on President Trump? We have seen he has no interest in making a deal,” he said.

    “Because he has the power to say no,” Baldwin said.

    “He doesn’t really have the power if Congress overrides him by a two-thirds majority in both Houses. So why don’t the adults in the room if there are any left on the Republican and Democratic sides get together and say ‘forget this we don’t need the president.’ The president is basically the hostage of his base,” he said.

  5. Might I also just add that it looks like Mitt Romney was not one of the Republicans in the Senate who voted to re-open government.

    #Fail

  7. How do we know it is a male that murdered that poor woman in Bundoora?

    The knives are out for all males. I’ve received total abuse from shrill woman today on my train and tram just for getting off at the same stops as a female.

    Disgraceful.

  8. The GOP has become the drunken frat boy party.

    The GOP’s proclivity for using government shutdowns to force through its agenda is another example of its drunken frat-boy antics. The three longest government shutdowns in U.S. history were all caused by Republican temper tantrums.

    In 1995-1996, Republicans led by House Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) shut down the government for 21 days to force President Bill Clinton, who was committed to a balanced budget, to accept steeper cuts in domestic spending than he wanted. That was a public-relations debacle that contributed to Gingrich’s downfall. In 2013, Sen. Ted Cruz (R.-Tex.) and his tea party allies forced a 17-day shutdown in a futile attempt to defund the Affordable Care Act. In both cases, Republicans were willing to halt the vital operations of the government and risk the creditworthiness of the United States to try to shove their ideological demands down the throat of a president who disagreed with them.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-gop-has-become-the-drunken-frat-boy-party–and-it-sees-no-reason-to-sober-up/2019/01/16/9e6cc4d0-19b0-11e9-8813-cb9dec761e73_story.html?utm_term=.601994c0bc1a

    And then we have the current shutdown, remarkably brought about when Republicans controlled Congress and the WH, but brought about on a figment of the xenophobic minds of Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh. The Republicans are simply unfit to govern.

  9. C@t:

    Romney is likely one of those Republicans impressed with the shutdown because it is shrinking the size of the govt, albeit temporarily.

  11. I know very little about hand writing analysis, but PotUS’ signature on his letter to the Speaker of the HoR is what I imagine a seriously disturbed person’s would look like.
    Perhaps DTT who knows all about everything would like to comment.
    I would also like his/her view of the reported alarm felt by the Pentagon on his request on options for aggressive actions against Iran.
    Perhaps he/she would explain how all this fits in with his/her often expressed view that Hillary Clinton was a greater threat to world peace than DT

  25. Akubra

    ‘How do we know it is a male that murdered that poor woman in Bundoora?’

    Seriously? You’re into this level of denial?

  26. I am a caring doting father mentor to my daughter Victoria you bully.

    I can see why Crikey cut loose this toxic blog and its lazy moderator Bowe

    Goodbye

  31. I recently watched the fifth season of Luther. Here’s my report thereon.

    It’s rubbish. Gigantic disappointment after the first four serieseseses. I recommend fans give it a complete miss.

  33. Rick Wilson’s latest – cracks appearing in GOP ranks.

    McConnell is a wily, unflappable, and determined Senate leader, and Democrats who underestimate him do so at their constant political peril, which is why the nervous muttering inside the Senate GOP about the economic damage this ongoing shutdown is causing the nation — to say nothing of the political cost it is causing the GOP — is so notable. For once, the complaints and concerns aren’t from the Democrats whom McConnell spanks on a regular basis. The worry is coming from the Senate GOP, especially from some of the 22 Republican Senators up for reelection in 2020.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/17/opinions/cracks-emerging-in-gop-ranks-over-shutdowns-toll-wilson/index.html

  34. Victoria @ 9:28
    “GIppslander

    Goodness me. Dont encourage dtt. For the love of dog”
    Vicky (I hope you don’t mind my over-familiarity)
    I take perverse pleasure in watching people defend the indefensible.
    BTW I have 3 dogs, each of whom I love. I used to love a God who was actually three persons, but HE/SHE/THEY ceased to exist when I ceased to believe.

  40. Fess

    Of all the things Akubra could have said about the murder of young girl, considering he supposedly has one that age, he goes with the comment he made. I find that disgraceful.
    Yet he wants to do projection and call me a bully. What a joke. It would be so laughable if it wasn’t so damn sad

  43. Fess

    I read it thanks. Rick Wilson is always so entertaining.

    The govt shutdown has managed to open many peoples eyes to Trump. Which should help when the whole truth about him is exposed.

    They will need to obliterate his name next to the word President. Cant wait. Fun and games

    Meanwhile Brexit is also interesting. I am thinking they may get an extension on leaving so a deal can be made. Which could end up being remain. Now that would be an interesting outcome too.

  46. The @womenforcohen twitter account that Cohen paid to have set up to tweet how sexy and awesome he is is still live. But hasn’t tweeted since 2016. Once again, the whole story just gets more and more ridiculous. How did these people manage their duplicity for so long?

    https://twitter.com/womenforcohen

  48. Lol. I go away to read my FlyBuys magazine (yes I’m that tragic), then I come back to see WW3 has broken out between Akubra and Vic.!

    Cool your jets, guys!

    Can I just say that, tragic as these circumstances are wrt to that young Israeli student, these sorts of things have been happening forever! Yes, it may happen near us this time and be all over the media but shit happens! and that’s what the police are there for, to find out who these monsters among us are and to put them away for a very, very, very long time in prison.

    Ignore the Human Headline, he’s got his own issues and I’m not surprised Jacqui Weaver left him, he must be hell to live with! Anyway, he’s just trying to raise his profile cynically before the election, that’s what I think.

    Looks like the Police will catch the perpetrator pretty quickly anyway with the good quality evidence they found nearby.

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