BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 63
1 2 3 4 … 63

  1. “So why don’t the adults in the room if there are any left on the Republican and Democratic sides get together and say ‘forget this we don’t need the president.’ The president is basically the hostage of his base”

    The problem with that is most Republicans are also hostages to that same base.

  4. Vic:

    Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
    19h19 hours ago
    Trump will surely see the entire Mueller report. So Putin will see every word. Imagine what it would mean for Putin to know exactly what Mueller learned about Russia’s collusion — AND WHAT HE COULDN’T DISCOVER — while Congress and the American people are kept guessing.

  5. “Car being driven by Prince Phillip has “flipped” on roadway…”

    Headline: “Elderly man of Caucasian appearance escapes road smash uninjured”.

  6. How do we know it is a male that murdered that poor woman in Bundoora?
    Well the stats say that is almost certainly the case…

    If you get harassed about being a bloke for 1 day in your life, welcome to the world I am told that women inhabit. EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. OF. THEIR. LIVES. At a level that is much higher and more sustained.

    You obviously don’t appreciate your privileged position in life and don’t wish to share that same courtesy to more than half of the population.

  7. Fess

    I have faith in the US institutions to get out of this ruckus and ensure it doesn’t happen again. Putin will end up being the loser cos his own people will be pissed off with the consequences

  8. “Idris Elba (who plays Luther) was touted as a possible James Bond, but I don’t know if he got the gig.”

    Idris was a potential contender at the time Daniel Craig was first cast: at that time they were both in their mid-late 30s and would have been suitable for a 4-6 movie arc a 10 year period. Now he’s too old to start off Bond.

    In my view Craig is now probably too old to finish off his run as Bond – don’t get me started on Roger Moore comparisons – he is a text box example of not casting age appropriate actors for iconic roles – he looked an old 46 when he started and an ancient 58 when he filmed his last Bond film. Of course some actors can ‘pull it off’ – Pierce Brosnan was so pretty he needed to be 40 before he looked like a man and even now pushing 70 he looks up to the task. Roger Dalton looked his 40 years when first cast – he still looks 40 aged 70. I digress. Idris looks his age and it’s too late for him to start off with a 5 movie run in the franchise playing a character was was always meant to be late 30s to mid 40s in age.

  9. Brilliant takedown of Anning and Morrison by David Squires….
    [url=https://imgur.com/BQes7iW][img][/img][/url]
    [url=https://imgur.com/kCi8qxo][img][/img][/url]

  10. Alpha Zero

    Yep, what I was thinking. And what every woman wearing a hijab, every person of African appearance, also experiences on a daily basis.

    If being treated this way upsets you, do something to create a world where no one is treated that way.

  13. Tulsi has much bigger credibility problems than her previous positions on gays.

    Her only credibility as a ‘progressive’ democrat was her endorsement of theBern in 2016 and I note Nicholas endorsed her recently at Sanders running mate this time around a few weeks ago.

  22. Andrew_Earlwood,

    A Google search of “Idris Elba James Bond” produces hits that suggest he was still being considered for the role in late 2018.

    Not that I give a rat’s. I was really just trying to change the subject from the recent flame war.

  24. Dotard is ramping up the humiliation of the USA globally – Putin and co must be wetting their pants with glee..

    (CNN) The White House has canceled the planned delegation’s trip to Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum, press secretary Sarah Sanders announced Thursday, the 27th day of government shutdown.

    “Out of consideration for the 800,000 great American workers not receiving pay and to ensure his team can assist as needed, President Trump has canceled his Delegation’s trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,” Sanders said in a statement.

    President Donald Trump previously canceled his own trip to Davos. The Trump-less trip would have been led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and deputy chief of staff for policy coordination Chris Liddell were also scheduled to travel to Switzerland for the annual economic confab.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/17/politics/white-house-davos-cancel/index.html?utm_source=twCNN&utm_content=2019-01-17T23%3A36%3A23&utm_term=image&utm_medium=social

  29. The 2018 ‘consideration’ of Idris appears to have been nothing more than scuttlebut. He was apparently on an actual list of contenders back in 2005, but the short list came down to Clive Owen and Craig.

    For a 2021 reboot the producers will be looking for someone then in their mid 30s and I predict it will be a man. White and probably British. Arise Jon Snow.

  31. For every Malka Leifer, there are 99 male perpetrators of similar despicable acts (so the stats say). Yes she should face the law, but she is statistically a big outlier compared with where the vast majority of crimes come from…

  32. A brilliant response to a reporter from the first woman to coach a pro soccer team in Germany’s top 5 divisions ! 😆
    .
    .

    Wübbenhorst was being interviewed by German newspaper Welt about the being the only female coach in the German men’s game, and she shrugged off the topic with a superb answer to one poorly-judged question in particular.

    When asked if she told her players to ensure they were covered up when she was in the dressing room, Wübbenhorst immediately delivered a brilliant answer.

    “Of course not,” she said.

    “I’m a professional. I pick the team on penis size!”
    https://www.rt.com/sport/449054-female-coach-picks-team-penis-size/

  33. A few weeks ago I posted about a Qld LNP senate billboard near my place waving the flag & Aussie values. That is still there for northbound traffic but for south bound traffic there is now a Dump Dutton billboard on the other side of the LNP billboard so some balance has returned and I can drive to work with a smile 🙂

  34. Poor little Akubra.

    Some girls said something he didn’t like on the tram this morning and now he’s all upset.

    I noticed no one tried to stab or rape you.

    Sorry if it seems like I lack empathy, but …

  35. Idris would look younger without his salt-and-pepper beard (says the man with the salt-and-ginger beard). But I suspect you’re right.

  37. kevjohnno @ #132 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 10:52 am

    A few weeks ago I posted about a Qld LNP senate billboard near my place waving the flag & Aussie values. That is still there for northbound traffic but for south bound traffic there is now a Dump Dutton billboard on the other side of the LNP billboard so some balance has returned and I can drive to work with a smile 🙂

    Smart people at work in GetUp and Sleeping Giants no doubt. 🙂

  40. Alpha Zero @ #130 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 10:51 am

    For every Malka Leifer, there are 99 male perpetrators of similar despicable acts (so the stats say). Yes she should face the law, but she is statistically a big outlier compared with where the vast majority of crimes come from…

    *Not very PC alert!*

    But just quietly, she also looks very mannish.

  41. Akubra
    I believe you said goodbye earlier and some of us will take you at your word.
    At the moment you are making a complete git of yourself abusing PBers whom hold strong views on many subjects.
    If you feel the need to benefit from this PB community could I suggest you withhold your outrage and respect the considerable number of highly intelligent folk who do enjoy the daily dialogue found on these pages.
    Everyone is subject to some criticism but most get on with the blog. Its inspiring. (sometimes).

  43. sprocket_ says: Friday, January 18, 2019 at 10:43 am

    Dotard is ramping up the humiliation of the USA globally – Putin and co must be wetting their pants with glee..

    (CNN) The White House has canceled the planned delegation’s trip to Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum, press secretary Sarah Sanders announced Thursday, the 27th day of government shutdown.

    ********************************************

    unconfirmed – but it seems the shutdown has not stopped Melania Trump flying down to Palm Beach to Mar-a -Lago ( probably desperately needs to get away from dotard for a touch of sanity )

    https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1086019934340165637

  44. Yes, I thought Akubra was going to go away. Obviously not a man of his word.

    *Runs for shelter from the storm of abuse now coming her way*

  45. phoenixRED @ #142 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 11:00 am

    sprocket_ says: Friday, January 18, 2019 at 10:43 am

    Dotard is ramping up the humiliation of the USA globally – Putin and co must be wetting their pants with glee..

    (CNN) The White House has canceled the planned delegation’s trip to Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum, press secretary Sarah Sanders announced Thursday, the 27th day of government shutdown.

    ********************************************

    unconfirmed – but it seems the shutdown has not stopped Melania Trump flying down to Palm Beach to Mar-a -Lago ( probably desperately needs to get away from dotard for a touch of sanity )

    https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/1086019934340165637

    Going to get her latest riding orders from her Russian neighbours?

    There could have been more than one Maria Butina I reckon.

  46. The magazine style of the West’s political writer Sarah Martin (at least I think she holds out to be this) is a not good news for Julie Bishop.
    The item in the Opinion section of a LNP friendly paper this morning is more than just a writer coming up with a fresh topic for the new year. The give away, after the “ifs”, “maybes” and “mights” studded through the piece, is these few lines…………….”There is some speculation (note the third person tone) that a by-election could be a way for a potentially defeated Christian Porter to take the seat (be given the seat??), an outcome that would prevent the elevation of some fresh female talent for the coalition”……..which of course, should read, ‘will save Porter’s political neck’.
    The old saw in politics about your opponents sitting opposite you and your enemies sitting behind you is well and truly on display here.
    Bad luck for Julie as it looks like no amount of bling or death stares is going to help fend off her Liberal mates this time around.

  47. Out of consideration for the 800,000 great American workers not receiving pay and to ensure his team can assist as needed,

    LOL of LOLs! The best way his team can assist is to end the shutdown.

  50. Morrison government announces very open and complete Royal Commission into Aged Care in contrast to restricted and limited Banking RC, because they know it will be up to Shorten Government to deliver.

Comments Page 3 of 63
1 2 3 4 … 63

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *