BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor

BludgerTrack returns from hibernation, albeit with only one new poll result to play with.

The return of Essential Research provided the BludgerTrack mill with its first grist for the new year, but the model is at its least robust when it only has one data point to play with after a long gap. This means BludgerTrack strongly follows the lead of a poll that was less bad for the Coalition than their usual form, resulting in a substantial reduction in Labor’s still commanding lead on two-party preferred. Labor is also down six on the seat projection – one in each mainland state and two in Queensland. The Essential poll also included a new set of numbers for the leadership ratings, and these produced a weak result for Bill Shorten that has blunted his recent improving trend. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,129 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.7-46.3 to Labor”

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  1. C@tmomma says:

    Friday, January 18, 2019 at 11:03 am

    phoenixRED @ #142 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 11:00 am

    Going to get her latest riding orders from her Russian neighbours?

    There could have been more than one Maria Butina I reckon.

    ******************************************************

    C@tmomma – in this day of who is a traitor and who is working for Russia – in a reality plot that is beyond the imagination of such talented espionage writers like Dan Brown/ Tom Clancy …….then your suggestion that there could be more *honey-pot insider moles* like Maria Butina would not surprise me one bit ……

  2. Clive Palmer has vowed to plunge an extraordinary $50 million into his controversial federal election campaign, in a cash splash that could outstrip Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten but potentially fail to secure a single seat in Parliament for his fledgling United Australia Party.

    The billionaire mining magnate is bombarding voters with television advertisements and text messages ahead of an election due by May, and has until now refused to say how much of his personal fortune will bankroll what could become one of the most expensive political campaigns in Australian history.

    But a spokesman for Mr Palmer told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that the United Australia Party, which plans to stand candidates in all 151 lower house seats, would spend “in excess of $50 million” and if more was required “it will be employed”.

    “There is no defined budget but it will certainly be more than the Liberals and Labor,” the spokesman said.

    Australian Electoral Commission documents for the period covering the 2016 double dissolution election show the Liberal Party spent $39.5 million and Labor $35 million.

    Mr Palmer on Thursday returned to the Forbes Rich List for the first time since 2014, with an estimated wealth of $1.8 billion catapulting him to the rank of Australia’s 20th richest person.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/at-least-50-million-clive-palmer-to-spend-more-than-liberals-and-labor-in-huge-election-binge-20190117-p50rvi.html

  3. poroti:

    Might pay to change your email passwords.

    Happy Thursday! 770 MEEELLLION email addresses and passwords found in yuge data breach

    You can check if your account was in this breach – of any of a large number of others – at the excellent https://haveibeenpwned.com/ site (run by an Australian, Troy Hunt!).

  4. BREAKING NEWS….

    Trumps base is fake!…

    Michael Cohen: I rigged online polls ‘at the direction of and for the sole benefit’ of Trump

  5. ratsak @ #148 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 7:08 am

    CA XI bat off for test berths against SL and the Ashes…

    Burns 4
    Renshaw 7
    Lasagne 6
    Pukovski 23

    Patterson 157 not out.

    Just sayin…

    Just watched the highlights of Patterson.

    Some quality shots.

    I like the way he pulls, he gets on top of the ball and doesn’t try to over hit it.

    Some glorious drives when he doesn’t try to play too far away from his body.

    Looked good. 🙂

  6. caf @ #154 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 11:16 am

    poroti:

    Might pay to change your email passwords.

    Happy Thursday! 770 MEEELLLION email addresses and passwords found in yuge data breach

    You can check if your account was in this breach – of any of a large number of others – at the excellent https://haveibeenpwned.com/ site (run by an Australian, Troy Hunt!).

    caf, thanks for that. I have been pwned, apparently, with 7 breaches recorded. However, it records breaches at sites I have never been to, like MySpace and Last.fm. So how does that compute?

  7. My ‘pwning’ report from that site. Just the 1 but I suppose that is all you need.
    .
    Breaches you were pwned in

    A “breach” is an incident where data has been unintentionally exposed to the public.

    Adobe: In October 2013, 153 million Adobe accounts were breached with each containing an internal ID, username, email, encrypted password and a password hint in plain text. The password cryptography was poorly done and many were quickly resolved back to plain text. The unencrypted hints also disclosed much about the passwords adding further to the risk that hundreds of millions of Adobe customers already faced.

    Compromised data: Email addresses, Password hints, Passwords, Usernames

  8. Shaun Marsh got a 100 the other day I read. Just sayin’.

    meh, white ball runs. I thought they’d keep him because he’s in white hot one day form and makes runs for fun in the Shield. But he has no argument against his dropping either.

  9. Akubra

    Someone yelled at you. Learn from that.

    And do yourself a favour. When you get home tonight ask the women in your life how they feel. Don’t interrupt them when they tell you. Don’t tell them how it makes *you* feel. Just listen. It’s hard.

  10. C@tmomma:

    caf, thanks for that. I have been pwned, apparently, with 7 breaches recorded. However, it records breaches at sites I have never been to, like MySpace and Last.fm. So how does that compute?

    Possibly someone else signed up with your address, or maybe those sites acquired older sites with a different name that you did have an account on?

  11. The notion that Trump is willing to burn the joint down, has always made perfect sense

    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    1h
    This is Trump’s end goal: to destroy our economy and burn the country to the ground before he’s removed from office. If he can’t have America, nobody’s gonna have it.
    Quote Tweet
    POLITICO
    @politico
    The partial government shutdown is starting to look like a serious crisis that could nudge the U.S. toward recession (link: https://politi.co/2FIhWM3) politi.co/2FIhWM3

  12. Victoria @ #164 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 11:37 am

    The notion that Trump is willing to burn the joint down, has always made perfect sense

    Tea Pain
    Tea Pain
    @TeaPainUSA
    ·
    1h
    This is Trump’s end goal: to destroy our economy and burn the country to the ground before he’s removed from office. If he can’t have America, nobody’s gonna have it.
    Quote Tweet
    POLITICO
    @politico
    The partial government shutdown is starting to look like a serious crisis that could nudge the U.S. toward recession (link: https://politi.co/2FIhWM3) politi.co/2FIhWM3

    That’s exactly what Rick Wilson was saying in the CNN article Confessions posted earlier. And he also said this, which I found shockingly true:

    Trump isn’t merely holding some faceless bureaucrats hostage for his wall. This shutdown is part of a deliberate new politics of visible, performative cruelty, much like the Trump-Stephen Miller “kids in cages” show waged with immigrant children as the victims. The stories you’re seeing on the news of government families working without pay and facing financial disaster are a feature, not a bug.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/17/opinions/cracks-emerging-in-gop-ranks-over-shutdowns-toll-wilson/index.html

  13. C@tmomma @ #159 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 10:21 am

    However, it records breaches at sites I have never been to, like MySpace and Last.fm. So how does that compute?

    The breaches are just saying your e-mail address was found in the list of e-mail addresses taken from the breached site(s). There are many ways your e-mail address might get into their database even if you don’t actively use them.

    Someone else (or a bot) could have stuck your e-mail into those sites. Or possibly a user who knows you invited you to use those sites (which can result in a ‘placeholder’ account being set up for you in their database, even if you never accept the invite and activate it). Or maybe the site operator did something unscrupulous, like scraping (or purchasing) e-mails from elsewhere and importing them into their database, etc..

    If you’re positive you’ve never used/set up an account with those sites, then there’s little need to worry about them (unless you’re concerned that someone might start impersonating you on myspace and/or last.fm).

    The thing to worry most about is if a site you’ve actively used comes up and the description makes any mention of “plain text” passwords. In that case your password is public knowledge and needs to be changed on the breached site and on any other site where you reused that same password.

  14. It is always a good time for a good kicking of Pomgolian ‘chaps’

    The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class

    Even a columnist for The Economist, an organ of the British elite, now professes dismay over “Oxford chums” who coast through life on “bluff rather than expertise.” “Britain,” the magazine belatedly lamented last month, “is governed by a self-involved clique that rewards group membership above competence and self-confidence above expertise.” In Brexit, the British “chumocracy,” the column declared, “has finally met its Waterloo.”……………………………………………….Forster blamed Britain’s political fiascos on its privately educated men, callow beneficiaries of the country’s elitist public school system. These eternal schoolboys whose “weight is out of all proportion” to their numbers are certainly overrepresented among Tories. They have today plunged Britain into its worst crisis, exposing its incestuous and self-serving ruling class like never before………..
    https://outline.com/7NJfw6

  15. Some quality shots.

    Best technique of the younger players in the Shield by miles.

    Burns is a knicker but near the top of what’s available, Renshaw is quality but in dire form, Pukovski has massive potential, but has a long way to go (and will need to learn to play the short ball in a big hurry). Lasagne is just a joke.

    K Pat should have been selected instead of Maddinson back after the Hobart debacle. Had a better record than Renshaw, Handscomb and Maddinson, but he scored a ton two games before that test rather than the week before so our idiot selectors overlooked him.

    I thought there’d be a good chance he’d make them look stupid again.

  16. [Akubra says:
    Friday, January 18, 2019 at 9:12 am
    The knives are out for all males. I’ve received total abuse from shrill woman today on my train and tram just for getting off at the same stops as a female.

    Disgraceful.]

    Accepting fully the accuracy of your account your conclusion, that the knives are out for all males does not follow.

    It is however reasonable to conclude that a male (who implicitly you are) who gets off a tram at the same stops as a female is likely to be perceived by the female as stalking her. After all why else did you get off at the same stops. She got off (to avoid you) you get off, she gets back on to further avoid you, you get back on, she gets off again at the next stop (to avoid you) and you follow.

    IMO the female is right to abuse you. I can see no innocent explanation for your weird actions and you do not even offer one.

  17. The problem with the shutdown over Trump’s wall (part of the problem, anyway) is that there’s no way to compromise. Either the wall is built or it isn’t, so one side or the other must completely back down for the impasse to be resolved. This could be a long haul.

  18. Is this lying or self-deception? I go for blatant lying.

    Hugh Riminton
    @hughriminton

    PM responds to Fiji’s urging for a clean energy future: “We have a comprehensive response when it comes to #climate change,” says Morrison. “We have sensible, achievable commitments.”

  19. What the Morrison government have is a fig leaf so that they can say with a straight face that they have a Climate policy.

    And this ‘sensible, achievable commitments’ is just flim flam when firm, decisive action is needed.

  20. ratsak @ #170 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 7:42 am

    Some quality shots.

    Best technique of the younger players in the Shield by miles.

    Burns is a knicker but near the top of what’s available, Renshaw is quality but in dire form, Pukovski has massive potential, but has a long way to go (and will need to learn to play the short ball in a big hurry). Lasagne is just a joke.

    K Pat should have been selected instead of Maddinson back after the Hobart debacle. Had a better record than Renshaw, Handscomb and Maddinson, but he scored a ton two games before that test rather than the week before so our idiot selectors overlooked him.

    I thought there’d be a good chance he’d make them look stupid again.

    I’ve seen the highlights now and the dismissals were not very impressive, all gave their wickets away.

    2 to uncontrolled hook/pull shots and Renshaw was like watching a replay of the past.

  21. Connery was in his 50s when he played Bond in Never Say Never Again.

    Elba is a wonderful actor – and I am disappointed in your assessment of the new Luther series … was planning on binging in the coming days.

  22. Ante Meridian

    The compromise is how much wall is built. I don’think even Trump believe a coast to coast one is possible, although he probably claimed at some stage to want such a wall. The Democrats should be careful. A number of senior Democrats have voted for and spoke for the need of a barrier in the past. The court of public opinion may turn and bite them on the bum for that.

    Unfortunately it has gone on so long that both sides will see making a compromise as a defeat and a loss of face and so stay in their bunkers.

  23. C@tmomma @ #177 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 10:51 am

    Thanks, ar and caf. I think I’m okay because I keep forgetting my password and have to change them all the time. 😆

    Have you considered using a password manager? I use LastPass, it has free functions and functions you have to pay to use. The free is fine for me. (Takes a little bit to learn though.)

  24. For those needing more robust passwording … I really recommend Onepassword application.

    It can generate good passwords and keeps a record for you on all your devices. Requires fingerprint or master password access (so you only need to remember one password and then you just copy paste into the various logins).

    Once you get everything in, it is very simple and allows easy changing of passwords if desired.

  25. I also recommend that a master password be a sentence with dashes or underscores between each word (dashes are easier on a phone) – the number of characters are hard for hackers to break and easy for you to remember.

  26. poroti @ #180 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 7:55 am

    Ante Meridian

    The compromise is how much wall is built. I don’think even Trump believe a coast to coast one is possible, although he probably claimed at some stage to want such a wall. The Democrats should be careful. A number of senior Democrats have voted for and spoke for the need of a barrier in the past. The court of public opinion may turn and bite them on the bum for that.

    Unfortunately it has gone on so long that both sides will see making a compromise as a defeat and a loss of face and so stay in their bunkers.

    I’m yet to see the design for the floating wall section. 🙂

  27. Jenauthor,

    Cheer up, maybe it’s just me. I’m not exactly renowned for being in tune with public opinion when it comes to popular entertainment. Remember, I think Shakespeare’s plays are boring.

  28. another vote for OnePassword. I switched to the online version. Access my 93 passwords on any device I choose, including from within browsers and apps

  29. “Andrew Earlwood, I think you meant Timothy Dalton. Still the best James Bond in my opinion.”

    yes, Timothy. Dalton didn’t get the opportunity to make the role his own that he deserved. Having Moore stick around for that last movie (and a few stinkers before that) and the wrangle over Cubby’s estate meant he only got to the the role twice before a 6 year or so hiatus and the Brosnan era. I would have loved to see him in a full 5 movie arc like Craig has gotten.

    I think Craig is very good, but he lacks one ingidient that all his precedessors had – charm, which is an essential feature of the character. Rakish charm.

  30. With regard to passwords, can someone knowledgeable confirm that although the email is known, it is the password for a specific site such as linkedin or adobe which has been hacked, rather than the email password itself that you use to log in and see your mail?

  31. C@tmomma:

    Thanks, ar and caf. I think I’m okay because I keep forgetting my password and have to change them all the time.

    Security through amnesia!

  32. Password managers have several benefits.
    (*) generating ‘hard’ passwords and remembering them for you
    (*) working across more than one ‘device’
    (*) logging in for you (no more typing the log in details)
    (*) reminders and suggestions to improve your passwords
    (*) organising your online accounts (I have dozens.)

    Just make sure your master password is a good one.

  33. Ante Meridian says:
    Friday, January 18, 2019 at 11:50 am
    Doing bugger all is certainly achievable.
    ————————————–
    With the level of competence displayed by the Abbot/Turnbull/Morrison mob if they tried to do bugger all they would almost certainly stuff it up.

  34. Has anyone else noticed how much more civilised the blog is today without nath, dtt, clem attlee, Pegasus and Rex Douglas?

    And, no, it’s not an echo chamber as a result!

  35. “Connery was in his 50s when he played Bond in Never Say Never Again.”

    That movie was a reprise and basically a remake of Thunderball. A bit different than getting a 50 year old actor to play Bond for the first time and expecting he’d be with the franchise for another decade.

    Also, Connery was a magnificent specimen of a human being, “like a Panther” and looked better than Craig does at a similar age and much better than Moore did in the role.

  36. Peter Stanton @ #192 Friday, January 18th, 2019 – 8:13 am

    Ante Meridian says:
    Friday, January 18, 2019 at 11:50 am
    Doing bugger all is certainly achievable.
    ————————————–
    With the level of competence displayed by the Abbot/Turnbull/Morrison mob if they tried to do bugger all they would almost certainly stuff it up.

    Isn’t that what they’ve been doing?

    What have they achieved beyond stuffing things up?

  37. BiGD

    Barrier ? Who needs that ? This photo is from Trump’s Mar a Lago. Looks like they are training ICE agents to cover the border’s liquid bits.

  38. With regard to passwords, can someone knowledgeable confirm that although the email is known, it is the password for a specific site such as linkedin or adobe which has been hacked, rather than the email password itself that you use to log in and see your mail?

    That’s correct – unless you re-used the same password for your email account itself. These lists are used in attacks called “credential stuffing” where they take known username/password pairs from one service and try them against a stack of other ones.

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