Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar

    Yes that’s what a gangmaster is, organising labour for hire

    Those Chinese people who drowned at Morecambe Bay picking cockles were supplied by a gangmaster

  2. Ray
    I recall the Morecombe Bay tragedy.
    Here the systemic abuses include sexual assaults on backpackers, under-payment, non-payment, atrocious conditions, failure to pay on costs including Super. Since a lot of the work is off the books, access to OH&S training and services is a grim business.

    Complaints are followed by a dobbing into Immigration and a trip home.

  3. I expect that Morrison’s ‘Integrity’ Commission would be like the Nationals’ investigative panel into Barnaby Joyce’s miscreancy. It would look like it was doing the right thing from the outside but come up with just the result required.

  4. Dan G

    Oh, and BTW, won’t those rabid right wing Anglophobes have conniptions if the result of the second referendum is to “leave”.

    ______________________________________

    I don’t know if you are referring to anyone here, but while most of us are convinced that Brexit is economic suicide that will destroy the poorest first and worst (like every massive economic disruption), the polling clearly shows that there is high, though not necessarily majority support to continue with Brexit.

    The issue is the extent to which the first vote was conducted in an fog of lies, grossly misleading promises and illicit foreign interference. If the voters vote leave again, so be it – but at least they will be doing so with the opportunity to access all the facts, whether they want to believe them or not.

    I, for one, will not be shocked if the vote is to leave again. After all, over 40% of US people polled continue to support a criminal fraudulent liar in the White House. But proper democracy will have been shown to have occurred.

  5. Boerwar

    Yep, it’s frightening at Morecambe when that tide races in. I’m sure you have similar treacherous coastal locations down there
    All the problems you mention, bar the backpackers, would be common here also with the casual workers even though I suspect we have way more regulation than you

  6. GG

    Quite soggy. My wheelbarrow was empty last night. This morning it is filled with water.

    I’m meant to be working this afternoon, but it may not be possible.

  7. ‘DG

    When, not if, Labour is elected into power again, then he can hold a second referendum and all will have to live by the result.’

    Corbyn is against a second referendum, against May’s Draft, against a Hard Brexit, but for a renegotiation which the EU says is not going to happen. (As Ray points out, the EU may change its mind if a Corbyn government is formed).

    ‘Oh, and BTW, won’t those rabid right wing Anglophobes have conniptions if the result of the second referendum is to “leave”.’

    Since Corbyn and May (and May’s leadership opponents in the Tory Party) are all opposed to a second referendum, this is a moot point.

    If the Parliament votes down May’s Draft on 21 January, which still looks likely, it is hard to see what would happen next. The Tories may still have the numbers to maintain government. In which case they will drag the UK into a hard Brexit. Whose fault it is will be the least of anyone’s worries.

    Getting enough food and the right medicine could well be top of mind.

  8. Dan Gulberry @ #2499 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    Oh, and BTW, won’t those rabid right wing Anglophobes have conniptions if the result of the second referendum is to “leave”.

    I think this is entirely possible. After all, the issues that led to Brexit in the first instance (and which saw large swathes of the country voting by 60% or even 70% in favour of it) have not really been addressed. Those votes will not have changed much. And the Northern Island border issue could swing voters either way.

    A second referendum could easily make things worse, not better. UK Labour is probably right to keep their heads down, support May, and let the Tories take the bullet over Brexit.

  9. Ray
    There are massive tidal races but they are generally in places where nobody lives and, if they did live there, there is no commerical imperative to take risks.

  10. “While the Coalition is putting forward a model of an independent statutory body to be led by a commissioner, and two deputies, it will operate within its own systems, away from the public eye. Labor’s proposal has discretion for public hearings, when judged to be in the public interest, built in.”

    So, fundamentaly different proposals. Coalition proposal very weak in comparison just on that basis.

    Would be interesting to see if the Coalition proposal is also tied up with gag orders for people being investigated and witnesses?? Coalition going all behind closed doors, but there should be provision for public hearing and the “commision” be accoutable to parliament / senate estimates for any decision to NOT make matters public.

  11. zoomster @ #2511 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 1:29 pm

    GG

    Quite soggy. My wheelbarrow was empty last night. This morning it is filled with water.

    I’m meant to be working this afternoon, but it may not be possible.

    I’ve seen pictures of people being rescued from their car rooftops near Wangarartta and they are forecasting another deluge later this afternoon. Stay safe!

  12. Some weather here. Expected high winds later today but will peak early (3am) in the morning (which seems the norm hereabouts).

    It was late December 2016 we lost power for 5 days due to some seriously crazy winds. We lost a big tree in that storm that came down only metres from the house at… you guessed it, 3am. I will not forget the sound of the wind that preceded the fall (which woke me), nor the dead awful thump as it hit the ground.

  13. Ray
    Non payment of wages, under payment of wages, non payment of Super, and hours worked without pay are becoming endemic in the non-agricultural mainstream economy.
    We have the regulations but until they start jailing the boss thieves , nothing much is going to change.
    About the hardest thing to do in Australia is to get yourself jailed for stealing from workers.

  14. “Yep, it’s frightening at Morecambe when that tide races in. I’m sure you have similar treacherous coastal locations down there”

    Want to see tide races?? Buccaneer Archipelligo at the top of King sound in W.A.

    8-10m spring tides in the channels between the islands at times. Was up there for work years ago and we had a fast 16ft tinny to run around in out of One Arm Point. On the neap tides for diving. Coming back in one arvo and in the channel in front of us, between two islands, a big slow whirlpool about 100m accross and a meter and a half depression in the middle.

    Dropped into it at 25-30knts and did a couple of whizzies before heading home. 🙂 Science is fun!! 🙂

  15. At the end of the day the UK will have to choose either a)to leave on the terms negotiated by May [this prevents a hard border with Ireland while preserving UK sovereignty in Northern Ireland] or b) to remain.

    Hard Brexit will deliver total chaos and there is no majority for it in the Parliament.

    May’s deal is a shocker, but it arises from geography as much as from bargaining. Since the geography cannot be changed, if the UK wish to retain their territorial sovereignty, in the end they will have to accept some form of “remaining”. Both May’s deal and Labour’s wishful thinking amount to remaining-in substance-if-not-in-form.

  16. DG
    Circumstances alter cases.
    There is no point in getting involved in a sectarian hatred election.
    (If Morrison can manage it he will find a way of targetting muslims while he is at it.)
    No views are changed. No votes are changed.
    We can safely leave all that sectarian froth and bubble to the zealous fundies in the Coalition and to the zealous culture warriors among the Reds in the Greens.

    Labor has more important agendas to prosecute.

  17. imacca @ #2517 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:35 am

    “While the Coalition is putting forward a model of an independent statutory body to be led by a commissioner, and two deputies, it will operate within its own systems, away from the public eye. Labor’s proposal has discretion for public hearings, when judged to be in the public interest, built in.”

    So, fundamentaly different proposals. Coalition proposal very weak in comparison just on that basis.

    Would be interesting to see if the Coalition proposal is also tied up with gag orders for people being investigated and witnesses?? Coalition going all behind closed doors, but there should be provision for public hearing and the “commision” be accoutable to parliament / senate estimates for any decision to NOT make matters public.

    You highlight how out of touch the Government is on this issue.

    One of the reasons for such a body is to eliminate the perception of corruption by having a body that everyone can see openly dealing with the issue.

    By operating behind closed doors it does nothing to dispel this perception and so does nothing to improve the public’s perception of public officials at a federal level.

  18. Here, after a most deliciously sustained light-to-medium rainfall, the sun is pressing hard for a peep through the clouds.
    #weatheronPB

  19. GG @12:37:

    Yes, that Liberal strategy looks like a hoax, but it might be close to the mark.

    – Use of Rt Honourable, as someone pointed about above, is a giveaway.
    – So is the election date. March 23 is the NSW election. If they went for March, I think the 2nd or 9th would be more likely.
    – It leaves out lying, smearing, picking fights and dividing the community for political advantage.
    – Bill Shorten is a person of poor character unfit to be PM? They’ve obviously confused him with Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton or Tony Abbott.
    – Bill Shorten will steal your super? Again, they’ve confused him with some of their friends, maybe a retail super provider or a financial planner.

    As for the CFMEU, of course they don’t control Labor. Who controls and bankrolls the “Liberals”? Big Coal, Big Mining, Big Developers, Big Real Estate, Big Banks? Little better than organised crime, give me the CFMEU any day.

  20. Hmmm…..interesting that Morrisons Muppets have today announced two bodies that will require highly paid “commisioners” and “deputies” to be appointed. This before an election the realistically expect to lose??

    Jobs for mates and slots for MP’s who are looking at losing their seats. Jump ship now, and make a slot for a Liberal “up and comer”, take an appointment in a Federal Commision. FFS this lot are bastards.

  21. We have four geese and a guinea fowl who thinks he’s one of them.

    In weather like this, the geese are out and about, looking chuffed, with a bedraggled guinea fowl following them around, obviously muttering expletives under his breath…

  22. Morrison is an idiot. He is absolutely unfit for the purpose and will lead the Coalition to the greatest defeat since WW2.

    Bring it on 🙂

  23. nath @ #2505 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 1:21 pm

    Stop stalking me C@t. whenever I come on you appear. must be in love with me..

    As well as being a complete idiot, you are also blind. My first comment, after coming back from doing the weekly shopping, was at 1.10pm. Your first comment was at 1.15pm.

    So, who’s ‘stalking’ who?

    Now feck off, and when you get there, feck off some more, and leave me alone. I only conversed with you last night because I felt sorry for you after I found out by googling your slanderous You Tube, heavily-edited to put Bill Shorten in the worst possible light, garbage post video, that you are a sad case.

  24. I haven’t had a chance to read through all the pages of posts these past two days, so forgive me if this has been answered before.

    Is this website subject to the media suppression order regarding the conviction of “a high profile Australian” in a Victorian court of charges relating to child sexual abuse?

  25. Michael A @ #2535 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 9:54 am

    I haven’t had a chance to read through all the pages of posts these past two days, so forgive me if this has been answered before.

    Is this website subject to the media suppression order regarding the conviction of “a high profile Australian” in a Victorian court of charges relating to child sexual abuse?

    Apparently so!

  26. imacca @ #2531 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 1:49 pm

    Hmmm…..interesting that Morrisons Muppets have today announced two bodies that will require highly paid “commisioners” and “deputies” to be appointed. This before an election the realistically expect to lose??

    Jobs for mates and slots for MP’s who are looking at losing their seats. Jump ship now, and make a slot for a Liberal “up and comer”, take an appointment in a Federal Commision. FFS this lot are bastards.

    I think the word you are looking for is ‘corrupt’.

  27. “Is this website subject to the media suppression order regarding the conviction of “a high profile Australian” in a Victorian court of charges relating to child sexual abuse?”

    I believe it does, given the headlines in the Sydney papers. We need to be careful.

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