Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. The suppresion orders are based on the assumption that peoply on a jury are stupid and that they believe what is read in the paper. Perhaps the assumptions are wrong.

  2. Perhaps the second trial should be a judge-only process, no jury?

    We all know that judges never get angry or vain, and are fully able to ignore what they read in the papers and view on telly (as well as Facebook, Instagram and overseas web sites). So they should be well- equipped to make sure that any future processes are scrupulously fair and non-prejudicial.

  3. Fitch has put a negative rating an Australia’s Tech sector because of the anti-encryption laws.

    “The entry of global ratings agencies into the encryption law debate is a first rate headache for Australia’s security agencies and politicians because it suggests a serious miscalculation about how the new laws would be perceived by international capital markets.”

    https://www.itnews.com.au/news/global-credit-agency-fisk-rates-australias-encryption-laws-a-negative-516896

  4. Nationals vote collapsing ahead of NSW election

    “The NSW Nationals believe they will lose at least three seats at the March 2019 election based on current polling — half the number of seats required to force Gladys ­Berejiklian’s Coalition into minority government.

    Other party polling shows that another seat — the once-safe ­Nationals enclave of Barwon — is on a knife-edge, showing how the bush could punt the Premier out of office.

    The polling in Barwon has the Nationals candidate at 33.3 per cent, the Shooters candidate at 19.3 per cent, Labor on 13.2 per cent, One Nation at 12.3 per cent, the Greens on 7.8 per cent and an independent on 5.3 per cent.

    The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers are hopeful One Nation might elect to not run in the seat and most of that vote could go to them.

    The Nationals’ polling finds the party behind in Lismore and Upper Hunter — with margins of 2.2 per cent and 2.9 per cent ­respectively — and trending the wrong way in Tweed (held by 3.2 per cent) and likely falling ­behind, party sources have told The Australian.”

    http://outline.com/b43uJM

  5. Just sayin…

    An advertising campaign to spruik the federal government’s energy policy reforms cost taxpayers more than $9.4 million, before the coalition dumped its signature plan.

    Answers provided to the Senate reveal the money was spent on the “Powering Forward” advertising campaign last financial year, promoting the National Energy Guarantee plan as a way of making energy more reliable and sustainable. SBS.

  6. Minister speaks with forked tongue.

    Australia is moving “towards a new energy future”, powered by unprecedented investments in renewable energy, Environment Minister Melissa Price has told a summit in Poland even as the country earned a “fossil of the day award for its poor climate policies.

    In a speech on Wednesday at the COP24 climate talks in Katowice, Ms Price said Australia was “committed to the Paris Agreement” and the development of a “robust rulebook” to implement the global pact agreed in 2015.

    “The clear message from the dialogue is that we must act, and act together, because climate change affects us all, and Australia must play its part,” Ms Price said.

    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/new-energy-future-minister-touts-australia-at-climate-summit-20181213-p50m3f.html?btis

  7. https://amp.abc.net.au/article/10613608

    The priorities of the fed gov in terms of protecting kids and teachers seem to be all wrong, as it focuses on the right to discriminate, rather than freedom from religion.
    (Then again this is the same fed gov that thought royal commissions into Institutional abuse, financial services, etc weren’t worth doing … all about capital, not labour, and focused on organized religion businesses and corporates, even gov, before citizens.
    Of course citizens these days have not just the media, but also social media!)

    I note Michaelsmithnews.com has a post up about a VIC court hearing for today on the media suppression order for the case, hardly about national security and indeed of huge public interest, that can’t be reported on onshore.
    (Though unfamiliar with the site previously, let alone operations or ownership, I also note that Whois and DNS for said site is overseas, kinda like the Washington Post, America Magazine, Daily Beast, Social Mention etc.
    (The publisher and executive editor and owner of PollBludger may well wish to undertake similar steps.)

  8. If this is true (I don’t know), Scott has dug himself a hole.

    SteveF Griffin

    The constitution forbids the federal government to make laws re’ religion so how is it that these fuckwits can contemplate doing that?

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I have to tell that I will not be in position to curate the Patrol tomorrow and Sunday as I’m going down to Yorketown with my son and young grandson to help him with his conversion of the grand old RSL hall there into a holiday home. Normal service will be resumed on Monday.

    David Crowe writes that there are problems for both major parties as they get ready for an election fight on border protection. Labor is vulnerable on its offshore detention policy. The Coalition is exposed to warnings about the huge strain on the immigration system.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/stopping-the-boats-masks-the-migration-mess-both-parties-now-face-20181213-p50m2b.html
    David Crowe reports that Morrison has sparked a policy row over the powers needed to stamp out corruption among politicians and bureaucrats, as critics urge him to strengthen the Commonwealth integrity commission he vows to set up next year.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/critics-urge-scott-morrison-to-give-new-anti-corruption-body-the-right-to-hold-public-hearings-20181213-p50m5l.html
    Ian Temby, who would know what he’s talking about, is hugely unimpressed with Morrison’s Commonwealth Integrity Commission. Who believes, he says, the Hayne royal commission into financial services would have been better held in secret? Perhaps the Big Four banks, AMP and some shonky agents. Nobody else.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/there-s-a-good-model-for-a-federal-icac-it-s-not-the-pm-s-20181213-p50lz5.html
    Peter van Onselen thinks similarly.
    https://outline.com/KfnfAf
    The Australian’s Rosie Lewis says Morrison faces a battle to ­establish a national integrity commission before the election, with crossbenchers and Labor labelling the $125 million proposal a “secret tribunal” and “toothless”.
    https://outline.com/nwFYha
    And Richard Baker writes that federal MPs, their staff and public servants will be breathing a sigh of relief with Scott Morrison’s release of the broad details of Australia’s first national anti-corruption agency.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/when-it-comes-to-corruption-a-one-size-fits-all-approach-works-best-20181213-p50m2f.html
    Quentin Dempster opines that the PM’s anti-corruption commission is a picture of impotence.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/12/13/pm-anti-corruption-commission-powerless/
    Michelle Grattan does the rounds on comments about the CIC announcement.
    https://theconversation.com/government-agrees-to-national-anti-corruption-body-with-strict-limits-108757
    After the death of the Family Court, courtesy of Christian Porter, Jenna Price fears the cases of families at their most vulnerable will be presided over by those who know little about parenting orders. Little about child assault, about child sexual assault. And those who know even less about family violence.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-can-t-fix-violence-against-women-until-we-see-this-as-an-epidemic-20181213-p50m02.html
    Eryk Bagshaw examines the ATO’s release of information of the earnings and taxation of Australia’s biggest companies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/one-in-four-of-australia-s-largest-companies-paid-no-tax-last-year-20181213-p50m0i.html
    and Michael West writes that once a year, the Tax Office unveils its data showing how much tax the biggest companies in Australia paid, or in one-third of cases, didn’t pay. Once again, despite the nosebleed rise in gas prices, the gas giants skimped on their tax. That’s zero from Origin, Shell, Chevron, Santos, BG and Exxon.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/ato-tax-dump-reveals-the-dodgers-the-usual-suspects-shine/
    John Lord gives us 25 reasons why the Coalition has failed the nation. Ouch!
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/25-reasons-why-the-coalition-has-failed-the-nation,12198
    ACOSS’s Cassandra Goldie implores the government to lift our Newstart underclass out of poverty. She says demonising those who can’t find a job, just like demonising refugees, is old politics. It’s time that the major parties caught up with community expectations by supporting those who fall on hard times.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/let-s-lift-our-newstart-underclass-out-of-poverty-20181213-p50lza.html
    Meanwhile Katharine Murphy reports that Labor could adopt a position supporting both an increase in Newstart, as well as a commitment to a review of income support, at the party’s national conference which starts in Adelaide on Sunday.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/14/labor-could-adopt-newstart-increase-as-official-policy-at-national-conference
    Tony Wright has a look at Labor national conferences past and the effects they can have on elections.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/terrible-terrigals-remind-labor-how-wild-times-can-cruel-elections-20181213-p50m12.html
    Penny Wong has told Labor colleagues to stay humble ahead of the national conference in Adelaide.
    https://outline.com/WBvKPU
    David Wroe explains how the Morrison government has been told Australia’s $13 billion-a-year system for supporting military veterans is broken and should face overhaul, including abolition of the mammoth Department of Veterans’ Affairs.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/major-inquiry-says-veterans-affairs-department-should-be-abolished-20181213-p50m0t.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz says that the ACCC is looking at the wrong issues in the Vodafone-TPG merger.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/accc-is-looking-at-the-wrong-issues-in-vodafone-tpg-merger-20181213-p50lzr.html
    Professor Warren Hogan writes that Monday’s MYEFO will look good, but it will set the budget up for awful trouble down the track.
    https://theconversation.com/mondays-myefo-will-look-good-but-it-will-set-the-budget-up-for-awful-trouble-down-the-track-107567
    Clancy Yeates tells us that the nation’s most powerful financial regulators worry some banks are being “overly cautious” in their lending decisions, after the royal commission ramped up pressure on banks to scrutinise new customers more closely.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/regulators-call-out-overly-cautious-banks-on-lending-20181213-p50m5d.html
    Michael Koziol writes about Morrison kicking the can down the road over religious freedom.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/both-sides-back-religious-discrimination-laws-but-protection-for-gay-students-delayed-20181213-p50m47.html
    Pontificating Paul Kelly continues to beat the religious drum.
    https://www.outline.com/DKryCd
    Phil Coorey says that Morrison’s announcement yesterday is a spillover from last year’s same-sex marriage debate and there are mixed views as to why the Prime Minister put such a polarising culture-war issue back on the agenda. He expands on the chaotic end to the political year.
    https://outline.com/Mc9v8p
    In a detailed contribution Professor of Law Anja Hilkemeijer writes that in the long-awaited response to the Ruddock review, the government is pushing hard on religious freedom.
    https://theconversation.com/in-long-awaited-response-to-ruddock-review-the-government-pushes-hard-on-religious-freedom-108750
    Independent schools are preparing for the possibility of no federal funding next month after the Morrison government rejected Victoria’s offer on funding for schools.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/holding-kids-to-ransom-one-year-school-funding-deal-knocked-back-20181213-p50m3m.html
    Nick Miller examines the field as the UK ponders who could replace Theresa May.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/who-could-replace-theresa-may-the-runners-and-riders-20181212-p50lwa.html
    And he writes that Theresa May survives and soldiers on. It’s what she does. But the Tory rebellion has made her near-impossible job even harder.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/crisis-averted-nope-brexit-remains-brexit-after-tory-rebellion-20181213-p50lww.html
    In similar vein Greg Sheridan writes that Theresa May survives but does not live.
    https://www.outline.com/jVSz7c
    According to Doug Dingwall public service agencies don’t know if they’re funding staff pay rises with savings they told the Coalition government would offset multimillion dollar wages growth. The national auditor has found federal agencies are not monitoring whether efforts to save money had absorbed the cost of wage hikes negotiated with their public servants.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/public-service-flying-blind-on-savings-promised-to-fund-wage-rises-20181213-p50m2w.html
    Dave Donovan writes that many Australians are rightly concerned that the Federal Opposition – newly empowered by facing an unpopular minority Government – has, by passing the Assistance and Access Bill — endangered the civil rights of ordinary Australians.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/editorial-excerpt-the-two-major-parties-are-not-the-same–swan,12200
    Richo writes that European states are staring down the abyss as from Greece to Italy, France and Britain, there is growing evidence of dysfunction.
    https://outline.com/UFVDbq
    A large defence contractor, Thales Australia, that tried to force a watchdog to censor a critical report is battling claims it acted in contempt of Parliament.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/defence-contractor-thales-denies-contempt-claims-20181212-p50lqt.html
    Katharine Murphy tells us that environmental and progressive activist groups are urging Australia’s major banks and financial institutions not to fund new coal projects now that the Morrison government has flagged taxpayer assistance for power generation.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/13/banks-urged-not-to-fund-coal-power-as-government-moves-to-underwrite-projects
    And Richard Dennis writes that Scott Morrison and the Business Council are pushing coal – but on what evidence?
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/13/scott-morrison-and-the-business-council-are-pushing-coal-but-on-what-evidence
    Australia’s carbon emissions are again the highest on record, according to new data from the emissions-tracking organisation Ndevr Environmental.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/13/australias-carbon-emissions-highest-on-record-data-shows
    A Domino’s franchisee is suing the pizza chain, alleging misleading and deceptive conduct, unconscionable behaviour and misuse of market power.
    https://outline.com/EjBgjz
    The unspoken crimes of the ASX — Part 4.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-unspoken-crimes-of-the-asx—part-4,12191
    Another dot is joined as Maria Butina has pleaded guilty to acting as an undeclared Russian agent in the US and agreed to cooperate with prosecutors.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/maria-butina-pleads-guilty-to-conspiring-as-kremlin-agent-targeting-gop-nra-20181214-p50m6v.html
    And an increasingly desperate Trump says Cohen pleaded guilty ‘to embarrass the President’.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-says-cohen-pleaded-guilty-to-embarrass-the-president-20181214-p50m6u.html
    Matthew Knott reckons Christmas can’t come soon enough for Donald Trump.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/christmas-can-t-come-soon-enough-for-donald-trump-20181213-p50lxo.html
    Shark numbers along the Queensland coast have declined by more than 90% for some species in the past five decades, according to new research that calls for better protections for sharks in Australian waters.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/14/queensland-shark-numbers-down-by-90-per-cent-in-55-years-for-some-species
    A secret document outlining what car dealers really think of the brands they represent has exposed Chrysler, the maker of Jeep and Dodge vehicles, as having the lowest satisfaction rating among dealers. The confidential 2018 Dealer Satisfaction Survey document, obtained by The New Daily, ranked Mazda, Toyota and Kia respectively as the three most favoured manufacturers.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/auto/2018/12/13/holden-satisfaction-survey-car-dealers/
    NRL players seem to have a penchant for being nominated for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/jack-de-belin-in-custody-at-wollongong-police-station-20181213-p50m54.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and the toothless CIC.

    Cathy Wilcox with Morrison’s Commonwealth Integrity Commission.

    John Shakespeare and asset sales.

    David Pope doesn’t think much of Morrison’s CIC.

    Another pot pouri from Matt Golding.





    Zanetti previews next year’s election campaigns.

    Glen Le Lievre on a certain suppression order (I think).

    Sean Leahy and the weather.

    Jon Kudelka also has a good shot at the CIC.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3cc26764882f6b10bb524f39dec685c2

  10. Frednk @ #2903 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 5:56 am

    Don
    I just observed that a comes before e and an affect comes before an effect and that rule is better than i before e except after c.

    That rule will never catch on while ever we have people who add apostrophe’s where they are not needed. They do not follow rule’s.

    And since I have raised the dreaded topic of apostrophes, I have a personal, totally ineffectual campaign limited to my own writings, to do away with an apostrophe after unpronounceable, capital letter two or three letter acronyms.

    So I write CDs instead of CD’s, using the lower case to indicate that it is plural. The plural of CEO becomes CEOs, the plural of JPG becomes JPGs.

    Lots of LOLs to you!

    😉

  11. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂

    I’ll do the cartoons on the weekend, BK.

    Plus I have a Saturday Paper subscription if you want me to add those articles?

  12. lizzie @ #2906 Friday, December 14th, 2018 – 6:28 am

    I often ask myself why it takes weeks before a judge hands down a sentence.

    Perhaps it has something to do with what I call the Richard Feynman method.

    As most here know, he was a Nobel prize winning physicist, but along the way he learned how to pick locks – or at least to open them by fair means and foul.

    He tells the story that once when he was given an ‘unbreakable’ lock to pick, he asked for all the doors to be sealed, silence in the rooms nearby, and to be left completely alone while he worked on it.

    Hours later he appeared, haggard, at the door, with the safe open, the lock picked.

    It had taken him a few minutes only to open the safe, but he read a book and whiled away the time by thinking. Which he was good at.

    But the effect was what he was after, and he got it.

  13. Don, for a start, the judge will usually ask for a pre-sentencing report from a probation officer. That can take weeks. Then the parties have to organise submissions, letter from referees, maybe character witnesses, etc etc. Then the judge has to sit down and actually write a report (it won’t be the only one he has to do). I would hate to be a judge. Too much hard work. It would kill me.

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