Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Talking of Leadership, Boris is looking up:

    Nick Robinson
    ‏Verified account @bbcnickrobinson
    9m9 minutes ago

    Nick Robinson Retweeted Nick Robinson

    Leadership klaxon again. “Do not underestimate the sense of responsibility I feel for Brexit…There is a real alternative”.

  2. ‘One Nation 7% (down one)’

    Looks to me like Ms Hanson is getting overexposed. Also, adding Mad Mark Latham to the team seems to have scared some people off. Not a smart move.

  3. From last thread …

    a r @ #2155 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 9:49 pm

    Player One @ #1616 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 6:24 pm

    Those are the explanatory notes. Read the actual legislation, and search for “particular person”.

    You’re correct, I was looking at the notes/memo.

    However my read of the legislation doesn’t say that a TCN must target a particular person. The only way “particular person” gets into the TCN section is transitively, via “systemic vulnerability” and “systemic weakness”, which are things a TCN may not order.

    On the contrary. A “systemic weakness” or “systemic vulnerability” may be ordered … provided it is targeted at a “particular person”. Otherwise, it is not allowed. For example:

    systemic vulnerability means a vulnerability that affects a whole class of technology, but does not include a vulnerability that is selectively introduced to one or more target technologies that are connected with a particular person. For this purpose, it is immaterial whether the person can be identified.

    The language is tricky. It is the reverse of what you might expect. First it tells you what may not be done (e.g. introduce a “systemic vulnerability”). Then it tells you what would allow this restriction to be relaxed (i.e. if it is targeted at a “particular person”).

    And it’s even transitive in those sections, as the test that allows you to order “systemic vulnerabilities” and “systemic weaknesses” anyways isn’t “does this order relate to a particular person”, it’s “does this order target technologies likely to be used by a particular person”.

    Which would at a minimum allow you to order the spyware version deployed to everyone but left dormant on each device until it received some flag from the operator’s server (which might be sent when logging in or syncing data).

    Not quite. It could only be deployed if it can only ever be activated for a “particular person”. It cannot be deployed if it could be activated for anyone.

    And if you’re using a TCN to order anything that can’t be considered a systemic vulnerability/weakness, the ‘particular person’ test (weak as it is) does not seem to enter into it at all. The checks-and-balances here seem way out of whack (or deliberately toothless).

    There is no doubt this is bad legislation. But there is also no doubt what it is trying to “allow”.

  4. Alex Turnbull tweets, replying to a Murdoch slag saying he was ‘hated’..

    Not as hated as this government according to the latest newspoll. Read em and weep.

  5. Yes. Turnbull had them at 51-49 and Tony wasn’t having any of that and pushed the self destruct button.
    Hope warringah is in play

  6. What a patronising headline for a professional woman who is supposed to be at her professional peak. ‘Bath time’ invokes imagery of her dealing with babies and housekeeping duties, not being top of her profession in the news reading business, still a male dominated profession.

    Fail for whatever media outlet ran that story.

  7. Congrats to Shorten and the ALP winning EVERY poll for 2018…and ending the year on 55:45…..many take it for granted, but that takes leadership, discipline and plenty of smarts.
    Now to finish the job.

  8. Agreed though obviously a play on her name not her gender.

    I doubt any man with the surname Bath would be subjected to a ‘Bath time’ headline. It only works because she’s a woman.

  9. Well, Newspoll tonight, not what I was expecting, and a good one. I’d love to see Labor 55-45 in a real election.

    Morrison and Co. will be in full cornered rat mode after this.

  10. Chris Bath is a star. She’s been on abc Sydney afternoons for a little while. Quite centric in her beliefs. Go well girlfriend.

  11. Looks like 55-45 is the new 52-48.

    I think it might narrow by the first NewsPoll next year, unless there is another Australia Day knighthood .

    I think the bills last week, asylum seekers and encryption were too late to affect this poll. If they were to have any impact it would be in another couple of weeks. Having said that I don’t think these bills will swing very many votes.

    The rebranding of the government, away from ‘Morrison ‘ if true, is revealing. It must be desperation, I can’t see the ‘Liberal National Government ‘ being that popular.

  12. Shrill hysteria from Morrison having no effect.

    The Emperor has no (policy) clothes and the middle ground voters know it.

    The coalition is all tip and no iceberg.

  13. NSW Greens MP Cate Faehrmann has issued a blistering attack on her party, saying she is “beyond appalled” with many members and fears the Greens have been “infiltrated by extreme left forces”.

    Ms Faehrmann, a former chief of staff to Greens’ federal leader Richard Di Natale, said the party’s decision to force fellow MP Jeremy Buckingham to resign was a new low for the NSW Greens.

    Their bad Primary vote in Newspoll proves just that

  14. Confessions
    Why does Barry continue his supposed evenhanded deluisionism.
    Borrowing from George Conways description of “Trump as a shit storm in a dumpster fire” Labor has no obligation to make life easy for the muppets by putting out their fire… it’s their own doing & may they reap the reward.

    About time Cassidy gave it away.

  15. After that relatively successful week, when almost everything went their way — they showed the PM is stronger than the ex-PM, the economy went well they got their bill through, they didn’t lose on the floor, and they were able to talk up their issues like national security and the economy — they got 45 2pp.

    Great way to finish the year.

    A lot of people will forget just how awful they are over summer. I think their best bet is probably to call an election on 26 January. They could probably use it to make themselves look more nationalistic than the other side. It also gives them the space to talk up themselves on border security — “we had to call this election, or else they would force us to relax our borders”.

    It’s high risk though — I think most people would see it as politicising the date, and they might even render it unserviceable to a much larger section of society. And the opinion seems to be increasingly that cruelty isn’t necessary to a strong border security regime.

    Huge capacity to backfire, but it’s probably their best bet. And we can think our lucky stars for that.

  16. C@tmomma@10:11pm
    Now now C@tmomma. That is naughty. I don’t know whether ALP and Shorten are cocky. But you appear to from your posting. So ‘curb your enthusiasm’ till the actual event happens.

  17. Scrptic @ #43 Sunday, December 9th, 2018 – 7:44 pm

    Confessions
    Why does Barry continue his supposed evenhanded deluisionism.
    Borrowing from George Conways description of “Trump as a shit storm in a dumpster fire” Labor has no obligation to make life easy for the muppets by putting out their fire… it’s their own doing & may they reap the reward.

    About time Cassidy gave it away.

    I rate Cassidy as a better interviewer than many in the game. Did you see his handling of Josh this morning?

  18. Josh is a rabbit in the headlights these days… easy pickings
    Cassidy is a great one to unload when it’s the bleeding obvious, like the Victorian election night.

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