Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

No Christmas cheer for the Coalition from the final Newspoll for 2018.

The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,921 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar

    Well, the continued right of hundreds of millions of EU citizens to live and work in the UK for starters

    Assuming they still want to 🙂 🙂

    Honestly I just think is Politics and Diplomacy 101

    You only have to compare and contrast the historic record of the Labour/Tory parties with regards to their attitudes to Europe .. plus I’m sure Tony B will put in a good word 🙂

    Yes in theory they are negotiating with a government not a party but come on now, in reality they know who the masters are

    By the way I’m not even convinced it’s a good idea, I think a ‘Norway Super Deluxe’ type-arrangement will be a hard sell to northern Labour voters

    I think I’d rather the May government collapse in a heap this time next year

  2. Anyone who thinks brexit is anything but economically bad – increasing in badness with the degree of brexitness – is the kind of person who believes any economic charlatanry that aligns with their prejudices and and sentiments……hey there Nicholas, I…I didn’t see you standing there…this is awkward…please provide more volumes of mmt, I’m really interested

  3. An integrity commission, religious freedom legislation, money for hospitals, the Aust Space agency etc – – – looks like the LNP are trying to clear away many of the negatives towards their party and getting in a few ALP style policies in preparation for an election. Surprised – not.


  4. TPOF says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 10:27 am
    Steve

    ‘However, lots if people must have been disappointed.’

    _____________________________________

    He would have been such a great leader if only his party had gotten behind him. (sarcasm emoji)

    Even when most of them,other than Abbott, Abetz, Andrews & Hastie, were behind him from late 2016 to April 2017, he panicked and could not bring about any proper tax reforms. None of the MSM commentators refused to believe MT was empty and hollow man. They backed him till the bitter end. The more he implemented RWNJ agenda, the more they supported him. The hit rock bottom when they supported MT against Shorten during July 2017 by-elections. Now look what happened to LNP. Completely broken. Only Barry Cassidy, Lenore Taylor & Mark Kenny amongst MSM Chatterrati come out with any dignity.

  5. Ex-GOP White House ethics attorney says Trump lawyers need to negotiate plea deal for him to resign from office

    The former chief White House ethics lawyer in the George W. Bush administration said on MSNBC that President Donald Trump’s defense lawyers need to negotiate a plea agreement.

    “Donald Trump is in serious trouble. His lawyers ought to be telling him to negotiate a plea deal,” Painter said.

    “It’s time to negotiate a comprehensive plea deal for Donald Trump,” he concluded. “Include federal and state charges, reduced charges in return for his resignation.”

    “That’s where the Republicans in Congress ought to be driving this — toward a comprehensive plea deal for Donald Trump and his family members,” Painter explained. “Get him out of White House, have him resign, plead guilty to lower charges and let’s move on as a country.”

    “It’s quite clear his goose is cooked here,” he added.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/ex-gop-white-house-ethics-attorney-says-trump-lawyers-need-negotiate-plea-deal-resign-office/

  6. Trump will never do anything that makes him look like a loser – quitting the Presidency would look like a loser. They will have to use a crowbar to get him out and he will blame all the fake news & enemies of the people on it.

  7. Roger @ #2451 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 8:09 am

    Anyone who thinks brexit is anything but economically bad – increasing in badness with the degree of brexitness – is the kind of person who believes any economic charlatanry that aligns with their prejudices and and sentiments……hey there Nicholas, I…I didn’t see you standing there…this is awkward…please provide more volumes of mmt, I’m really interested

    You think good and bad!

    I think different!

    It all comes down to how you deal with the change. 🙂

  8. Simon² Katich® @ #2444 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 12:07 pm

    It is 5°.

    I hope this weather doesnt damage my raspberries. They have just started to ripen and oh so sweet.

    If they do, let us all know on PB and we can collectively send raspberries to you!

    Victoria @ #2446 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 12:08 pm

    I usually go to plaza back way from my place through kalparin gardens.
    I wont be venturing that way today. I can imagine the lake being flooded!

    I dare say the road might have copped some overflow.

  9. The quality of Sydney’s water supply could be put at risk by a decision to axe a specialist team of firefighters from the New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service, which currently patrols the vast catchment surrounding Sydney’s dams, the union representing parks staff says.

    WaterNSW, which manages the catchment on behalf of the NSW government, has confirmed it is ending its contract with National Parks for firefighting services at the end of this summer.

    Instead it will use firefighters from the Rural Fire Service to defend the half a million hectare area that makes up the Warragamba special area.

    The move to dismantle the specialist firefighting team based at Nepean dam has outraged National Parks staff. The team is trained in remote area firefighting and rescue operations in the largely inaccessible area.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/13/nsw-accused-of-jeopardising-sydneys-water-supply-with-decision-to-axe-firefighters

  10. So apparently this Commonwealth Integrity Commission, in regards to the Public Sector, will have no public hearings and won’t be able to make findings of corruption or criminal conduct. What’s the point of it then!!

  11. Trump will never do anything that makes him look like a loser – quitting the Presidency would look like a loser.

    I lean this way. He would rather burn down the WH than save the furniture.

  12. Some more detail on the FauxICAC here..

    Scott Morrison will move to establish a federal anti-corruption commission, less than a month after dismissing the proposal as a “fringe issue”.

    But the Coalition’s proposed integrity commission will operate outside of public view, with the investigative body to make no public findings, hold no public hearings, and refer any recommendations directly to prosecutors, who will make the ultimate decision on whether or not to go forward with a case.

    A former commissioner of the NSW independent commission against corruption described the omission of public hearings was “very weak”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/13/morrison-government-announces-new-federal-anti-corruption-commission?CMP=share_btn_tw

  13. Ray
    Your point about worker movements is interesting.
    There was an item about the difficulty the NHS was having filling positions that would largely previously have gone to non-Brits.
    There were earlier articles about farmers having difficulty accessing temps from middle europe and the Balkans because social media were telling the folk back home that it was a less friendly place. I don’t see similar articles on the latter topic any more so I am assuming that things have settled down.

    There is one thing that I have difficulty wrapping my mind around. The May Draft kicks the Irish can down the road. Neither the Tories nor Labor have been able to come up with anything that is remotely convincing from an EU/Eire perspective.
    But a Hard Brexit would automatically force the creation of a hard Irish border anyway.

  14. As usual the Government’s suggestion for an anti-corruption body represents the low water mark on the issue and there lies its only useful purpose. 🙂

  15. guytaur @ #2097 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 11:23 am

    @beneltham

    Morrison government announces new federal anti-corruption commission – but it won’t issue public reports and it won’t hold public hearings https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/13/morrison-government-announces-new-federal-anti-corruption-commission?CMP=share_btn_tw

    So it will be a bunch of do-nothing window-dressing then?

    Also, how does Morrison intend to actually legislate for it given that he’s run away from Parliament?

  16. Alex Turnbull
    ‏ @alexbhturnbull
    8m8 minutes ago

    Quick question: if Australia’s government chooses against the people’s will and interest to back coal plant projects proposed by LNP cronies, is that an odious debt? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odious_debt … @AngusTaylorMP @markdreyfusQCMP @Mark_Butler_MP @drkerrynphelps #climate #auspol

  17. AR

    I think the most common phrase that will be associated with Morrion’s effort will be “Toothless Tiger” as a political stunt or WTTE 🙂

    Also credit to Labor to get the backflip out of Morrison.

  18. Sweet ones, I trust.

    Barney, that doesnt look very sweet. I get sweet ones in that form from my littlest. But neither make up for the loss of a sizeable, plump and sweet raspberry crop.

  19. Nine News Sydney
    ‏Verified account @9NewsSyd
    19h19 hours ago

    The controversial knock down and rebuild of Allianz stadium at Moore Park has taken a nasty turn today, with the stadium’s lowest paid workers told they would be sacked. @cokeefe9 #9News

  20. ‘So apparently this Commonwealth Integrity Commission, in regards to the Public Sector, will have no public hearings and won’t be able to make findings of corruption or criminal conduct. What’s the point of it then!!’

    I think that is the point. Plus coming up with an ICAC style body that is so anemic that Labor will have to reject it and thus have a fight.

  21. P1, Guytaur

    Obviously a hoax – the Rt Honourable gives it away (Right Honourable was an honorific for members of the Privy Council, to which Australian politicians are no longer appointed). It does look like the same machine that produces the Waynebot, though.

  22. That thing looks fake.

    Also:

    Prof Kerryn Phelps AM
    ‏ @drkerrynphelps
    26m26 minutes ago

    I will not support any new rules proposed by the ⁦@ScottMorrisonMP⁩ Government to provide taxpayer support for new or existing coal plants #nonewcoal #stopadani #auspol

  23. Steve777

    Plus coming up with an ICAC style body that is so anemic that Labor will have to reject it and thus have a fight.

    ______________________________

    If anyone on the Coalition seriously thinks picking a fight with Labor on an ICAC body is a good idea, after Morrison has been dragged kicking and screaming to even contemplate one, has to be out of their little coal-mining political minds. So you are probably right.

  24. Boerwar

    Worker movement

    Just about the biggest irony of Brexit was the fact that in the flatlands and fens of Eastern England there are mile after mile after mile of farmers fields filled with workers picking the crops – all supplied by the gangmasters and most of those workers from the EU

    Come election time and every one of those fields had a UKIP poster on a post, and this was of course UKIPs strongest area

    As I understand it the deal allows those already here to stay but of course once you factor in turnover this will be a constant problem. I suspect the papers just got fed up reporting it.

    I am a lorry driver and when Poland came in we got about 40 Polish drivers all at once in our depot who used to do 4 months here, 2 months back home to get around Working Time directives. I doubt this would be workable under the deal.

    As for the Ireland border that should have been a major issue in the campaign but of course the media would rather have Farage, with fag on, standing in the market ordering sausages by the pound and ounce, than cover serious issues. It barely warranted a mention. In an election where the right were bitching about immigration here we are signing up for an open land border with an EU state. I can see it now, all them folks in the camps at Calais getting a low-cost ticket to Dublin and an escort by The Garda up to the North. No reason for the French or Irish to do us any favours.

  25. Rocket Rocket says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 11:42 am
    briefly

    Every time I think Morrison can’t possibly do anything more to debase the office of Prime Minister he surprises me again.

    I believe he has not yet reached ‘Peak Stupid’ – much more is probably in store over the next few months of this zombie government.

    Zombie – as in dead but refusing to believe they are dead. And not able to actually achieve anything worthwhile. Also as in preventing any Parliamentary sittings which could quickly expose the true nature of their state of death and decay.

    Zombie…spot on!!!!

  26. booleanbach @ #2456 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 11:15 am

    Trump will never do anything that makes him look like a loser – quitting the Presidency would look like a loser. They will have to use a crowbar to get him out and he will blame all the fake news & enemies of the people on it.

    For me the biggest problem isn’t Trump personally, as big a problem as that is, it is the number of people who blindly support him. Locking Trump up won’t make them go away, it might make them angrier than ever. To break the spell Trump has to be seen as a loser, not a martyr. I expect that Trump knows this in his gut.

    Whatever chess pieces are being moved by the different players I expect they too understand this. Even using Ivanka to force him to resign and admit to crimes won’t do it. He would be just a father protecting his daughter. His followers would rally to him. Major visible ongoing failures need to become apparent, failures that demonstrate his weakness. Then he can be marched off. And of course those chess players also know that those type of failures would hurt many.

    At that level I can understand why things are moving slowly. Trump’s inability to stop Mueller is one such visible ongoing failure.

  27. Madcyril says:
    Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 12:17 pm
    So apparently this Commonwealth Integrity Commission, in regards to the Public Sector, will have no public hearings and won’t be able to make findings of corruption or criminal conduct. What’s the point of it then!!

    Well…it will not be a judicial body so it makers sense that it will not “make findings” or hold “hearings”. It will be an investigative body. Bodies with investigative powers investigate information and collect evidence, things that judicial bodies cannot do.

    If it were otherwise, it would be a “star chamber” – something that has not existed in our system for centuries.

  28. Ray

    Yes.

    I was discussing the border the other day with a hard brexiteer. I asked him what his proposal was for addressing when the Jungle spread along 500km of the NI/EU border.

    He was dumbfounded. It had simply not occurred to him that the various May proposals were all based around a porous land border and that humans would be able to stroll across and thereby create their legal presence (if nothing else) inside the UK.

    BTW, I suspect your ‘gangmaster’ is our ‘labour hire firm’. The corrupt (ab)use of o/s workers in Australian agriculture is endemic. Border Force officers chase the workers around the paddocks, occasionally catch a few, and then put them on a plane back home. But they are replaced immediately.

  29. I agree that the memo is likely to be false. However, it is floating about on twitter and P1 above makes the interesting point that it does ring true as being the actual election strategy for the Libs.

  30. a r @ #2292 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 6:11 am

    Boerwar @ #2255 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 7:14 am

    ar

    ‘Corbyn’s masterly inactivity’

    Que?

    Quite simply, that if Corbyn comes out in favour remaining, he loses all the potential Labour voters who voted for leaving. If he comes out in favour of leaving he losses all potential Labour voters who voted to remain.

    This the Tories mess. They created it. They fix the mess. It is not up to Labour, Corbyn or any other party or leader to help them in any way shape or form.

    That is why masterly inactivity is exactly what’s called for by Corbyn. The only people who can’t see that are the rabid right wingers who hate all things English on this site.

    When, not if, Labour is elected into power again, then he can hold a second referendum and all will have to live by the result.

    Oh, and BTW, won’t those rabid right wing Anglophobes have conniptions if the result of the second referendum is to “leave”.

  31. This is the only thing I’ve agreed with Malcolm Roberts on:

    $30,000 Christmas pay rises for the Prime Ministers staff.

    You must be kidding?

    “Floundering PM Scott Morrison quietly hands 30 of his staff $30,000 Christmas pay rises costing more than $1MILLION – while wages for average Australian workers stagnate.”

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