The Australian reports Newspoll has closed its 2018 account with another crushing 55-45 lead for Labor, from primary votes of Coalition 35% (up one), Labor 41% (up one), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 7% (down one). Scott Morrison edges to net negative territory on his personal ratings, being down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 45%. Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 36% and up one to 51%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is 44-36, narrowing from 46-34. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1731.
Morrison just announced the establishment of a Commonwealth Integrity Commission.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1073008172472782848
Ray
It’s the redrawal and then resubmit proposition that I’m totally skeptical about, not just a straight withdrawal.
While the EU could not stop such a process, it would demonstrate such bad faith on the part of the UK (unless it is part of an EU agreed process leading to a formal internal UK process to have another referendum) that the EU would be totally uncompromising about future negotiations.
I suppose my core question is how much time can be taken to resubmit the proposal to the public. And, yes, I think there should be another referendum, if only because of the incredible number of lies told by the leavers (and the interference of Russian agents). If there is still, in the now full knowledge of what is involved in exiting, a vote to leave then so be it. Ideally, the three options of stay, the May agreement or hard Brexit should be put (with preferential voting to get a genuine expression of will).
Regarding this Vote of Confidence in May. Are her supporters now to be known as the darling buddies of May?
They have sat on the Ruddock report for months and decided to release it when nobody gives a fuck over Xmas and New Year. Obviously deliberate.
guytaur @ #2017 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 10:11 am
No it doesn’t.
However public policy must be based upon facts, and belief cannot be stronger than (or granted exceptions within) the law.
Its very clear this is about entrenching discrimination in the name of freedom of religion.
That one about not requiring charities to be subject to discrimination law on the basis of religious belief is the giveaway.
If its a charity it does not need to have a position on marriage. Leave that to the churches.
Were the UK to revoke A. 50 and then re-submit a withdrawal notice, one would think the EU would simply restate the terms just negotiated with May. Perhaps they might toughen the deal. If I were in their shoes, I would feel tempted to do that. Perhaps the EU would simply declare the only possible deal would be one in which Northern Ireland is included in the EU for all treaty-related purposes.
By seeking withdrawal from the EU the idiotic English reactionaries have declared to the entire world that they are not to be trusted – that they will always reserve the right to break their commitments at will. If they were to first revoke and then re-invoke withdrawal, they will be rightly regarded as completely ridiculous. They will be trying to trade on their basic untrustworthiness.
As one-time colonists, we in the antipodes have a very good understanding of English self-gratification. They do not regard commitments they make to others as being binding in any definitive way. Everything they owe to others is always temporary and subject to renegotiation. Everything owed to them is fixed for all time. There is no presumption of equality in their worldview.
AR
I take the correction. 🙂
AR
I take the correction. 🙂
Ray (UK)
Sorry – should have made it clear that the Lib Dems clearly support moving the no confidence motion and having an election.
As for Labor, they are probably right in the numbers not being there for it to pass.
Organised religion does not like light of any nature being shone on it.
Morrison may think he can start a scrap over religion. If there is one thing Australians do not want to argue about it’s religion. This gambit will invite contempt from voters, who will flee the Liberals for trying it. Morrison is an idiot. He is absolutely unfit for the purpose and will lead the Coalition to the greatest defeat since WW2.
Porter doesn’t get it.
The whole point of a separate body to investigate corruption is to have an outside body to investigate.
Thats so we don’t get the police investigating the police.
We have seen what putting investigators in place in banks has done for the banks
“They have sat on the Ruddock report for months and decided to release it when nobody gives a fuck over Xmas and New Year. Obviously deliberate.”
Now announcing something like federal ICAC? I’d say thaey want to get in while they can an make the appointments to run it.
They are trying to set up a situation where in the short sitting of parliament before the election they can do the “look we are getting on with it” thing. Will be interesting to see what of their agenda they can prosecute by regulation rather than legislation as passsing anything significant, rapidly, with no scruitiny (their aim) is goingto be a pushing poo uphil exersise.
Boerwar
We’ll have to agree to differ
We’re hypothesising the incumbent government, which negotiated the withdrawal, is soundly defeated in a snap Election caused by a parliamentary loss of confidence over the deal
The victorious Opposition, now in Government, wishes to negotiate a new deal incorporating substantially different terms
You are saying the EU will shrug and say ‘get stuffed’ we’re not talking
I am saying that in that new political reality the EU will negotiate in good faith
@DrRimmer
@latingle @abcnews But will Scott Morrison’s scheme feature key aspects of @Indigocathy’s #IntegrityBills? Those bills had some really important measures dealing with conflicts of interests, gifts and donations, and other items designed to break the nexus between money and politics in #auspol?
briefly @ #2410 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 11:29 am
That’s demonstrably untrue. PBers argue about it all the time. Just look at the post immediately before yours.
By the way, now we’ve had the banks on the griller – we need a Royal Commission into privatisation next!
“The blowout in power prices is the direct result of a decision to take five state-owned electricity generation, transmission and retailing monopolies and turn them into a national electricity market of competing privatised businesses.”
https://www.theage.com.au/national/the-experts-told-us-not-to-worry-20181211-p50lgs.html
Without having seen the details of Morrisons CIC (are there any?) – I can safely say it is non-alcoholic xmas punch. These buffoons will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to any meaningful policy and legislation.
‘Morrison may think he can start a scrap over religion. If there is one thing Australians do not want to argue about it’s religion. This gambit will invite contempt from voters, who will flee the Liberals for trying it. Morrison is an idiot. He is absolutely unfit for the purpose and will lead the Coalition to the greatest defeat since WW2.’
Agree entirely.Its absolutely pathetic any government getting involved or legislate with religion. This dickhead gets $527,000 a year to come up with this shit.
Ray
I am saying that in that new political reality the EU will negotiate in good faith
___________________________________________
Why would they? The only change that would happen with a new government is that, hopefully, the baleful influence of the DUP would not be present. But there is still the underlying political sensitivity arising from the Good Friday agreement.
That said, you are closer to the action and much more knowledgeable than I am on this issue. So, a genuine question: What could Corbyn offer the EU that would make them interested in renegotiation (given all that process would entail). Bearing in mind that the EU negotiated with a government, not a political party.
TPOF, briefly
I agree the Article 50 manouevre is unthinkable for the current May government and would be very poorly received by the EU (see my earlier comment)
It only works politically in the event of the government changing
Ray…the only way that Labour could achieve its stated conditions of withdrawal would be to negotiate with the EU after i) revoking A.50 and then ii) re-invoking it at a future time when the UK and the EU had agreed terms. Two years is nowhere near long enough for the deal sought by Labour to be written, agreed and legislated. However, negotiation-prior-to-withdrawal is not possible under the Treaty. I think it’s all stuffed. It will be an all-in or all-out choice. Will Labour take on the reactionaries of the Right and Left?
‘Ray (UK) says:
Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 11:32 am
Boerwar
We’ll have to agree to differ
We’re hypothesising the incumbent government, which negotiated the withdrawal, is soundly defeated in a snap Election caused by a parliamentary loss of confidence over the deal
The victorious Opposition, now in Government, wishes to negotiate a new deal incorporating substantially different terms
You are saying the EU will shrug and say ‘get stuffed’ we’re not talking
I am saying that in that new political reality the EU will negotiate in good faith’
I hope you are right and that I am wrong.
Like you, I doubt that Remain is a goer.
Hard Brexit would be lose lose, bit time.
briefly
Every time I think Morrison can’t possibly do anything more to debase the office of Prime Minister he surprises me again.
I believe he has not yet reached ‘Peak Stupid’ – much more is probably in store over the next few months of this zombie government.
Zombie – as in dead but refusing to believe they are dead. And not able to actually achieve anything worthwhile. Also as in preventing any Parliamentary sittings which could quickly expose the true nature of their state of death and decay.
Confessions says: Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 10:44 am
Victoria @ #2359 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 7:39 am
____
Claude Taylor
@RWPUSA
is on MSNBC talking about a negotiated plea deal for Trump/family to resign. A comprehensive deal. Federal and State. He’s right. #bitterpill but he’s right. Don’t hate me.
I still want to see them all carted off in orange jumpsuits!
******************************************************************
Like THIS Confessions ?????
Politicising religion against Labor now.Was only a matter of time.
“Morrison just announced the establishment of a Commonwealth Integrity Commission.”
Backflip? Flip-flop? Wibble-wobble?
Morrison wants to establish it on his terms, nobble it, keep it away from his mates and bankrollers and look to opportunities to send it after Labor. An incoming Labor Government will need to fix it.
Morrison’s sectarian war is about shoring up Queensland seats and the PHON preferences and about appeasing his Right Wing Numpties.
Other than that it won’t shift any Greens or Labor voters.
Dead bat for Labor would be about the right process. Plain statement: no discrimination against gay teachers and gay students.
The Reds in the Greens will salivate, of course.
When the Reds in the Greens are trying to hide the gutting of thousands of jobs in the ADF, the closure of Olympic Dam mine, the closure of Ausralia’s cotton industry, the closure of Pine Gap and North-west Cape, the imposition of ‘community decision making’ on farmers, the forced redistribution of paid work, the possible costs of the imposition of a UBI (?) UJG (?) – what better heaven for the Reds in the Greens than to have a slagfest about religious freedoms?
‘I would prosecute the case today’: Ex-Prosecutor explains why Trump is cooked after National Enquirer flipped
A former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York said he would charge Donald Trump today if Michael Cohen were to finally start fully cooperating with investigators in his old office.
MSNBC legal analyst Daniel Goldman served as the Deputy Chief of the Organized Crime Unit in the U.S. Attorney’s office for the South District of New York.
“He can go in and cooperate now. When you add up Cohen’s testimony as we know from what he said in court, the recording between Trump and Michael Cohen and now David Pecker and AMI’s cooperation, I would charge that case today,” Goldman said.
“You would charge that case today?” Vossoughian asked.
“Right now,” he replied.
“So even with Trump’s changing stories — pick whichever one you want — they don’t hold up against two witnesses admitting that they did this illegally and one recording where Trump’s voice is on it where he clearly knows what’s going on,” he noted.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/prosecute-case-today-ex-prosecutor-explains-trump-cooked-national-enquirer-flipped/
Steve777 says:
Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 10:04 am
“Our great LNP will win the next election due in May next year and Scott Morrison will be a great PM for this great country of ours…..
Wasn’t Malcolm Turnbull going to win the election and be a great PM for this great country of ours?
”
That was sooo 4 months ago. Don’t you that LNP changes their leaders, both state & federal level, like a woman changes her shoes
‘He know’s he’s bleeped’: Trump biographer says president knows ‘something is about to hit the fan’
Donald Trump biographer Tim O’Brien predicted there would be a new round of longtime allies of the president who “flip” and cooperate with prosecutors.
“I think it definitely looks like he knows he’s bleeped,” O’Brien replied.
“He’s cornered and spent a year and a half pointing to the Mueller investigation on a routine basis, nonstop, as being a witch hunt,” he noted. “Anytime he starts tweeting at the investigation or investigators, it’s usually when there’s a big shoe about to drop.”
“He knows in advance that something is about to hit the fan,” O’Brien added.
“These are developments that are going to bleed into the Trump Organization for quite a long time,” he predicted. “It’s going to get to his children, it’s going to get to other people in that organization, and people are going to start flipping that Trump never thought would flip before.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/knows-hes-bleeped-trump-biographer-says-president-knows-something-hit-fan/
If this Brexit becomes too sticky , why don’t they just declare 29th March 2019 a leap day and just carry on as before.
Going to need gumboots!
It is bucketing down!
No, they don’t. According to the most recent figures from the UK Office for National Statistics, the UK’s inward Foreign Direct Investment as well as its outward Foreign Direct Investment have been increasing. This doesn’t happen if foreign investors think that your country is in chaos.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/foreigndirectinvestmentinvolvingukcompanies/2017#fdi-flows-continued-to-be-affected-by-mergers-and-acquisitions-activity-in-2017
According to HM Revenue and Customs, UK exports also continue to rise.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/exports-continue-to-rise-across-the-uk
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=41123
Incoming Intel Chair Adam Schiff: ‘It is now Donald Trump’s word against everyone else’
Schiff said that there are witnesses everywhere now.
“I think the more significant development in the case today than the sentence that Michael Cohen received was the fact that there is this nonprosecution agreement with AMI, the parent [company] of the National Enquirer,” he said. “Because what that means is, this is not simply Michael Cohen’s word against Donald Trump’s, it is now Donald Trump’s word against everyone else.”
Schiff added, ‘There are witnesses at AMI who will testify that these payments were made for the express purpose of influencing the election, by depriving voters of knowledge of these stories of women coming forward to say they had affairs with a candidate running for president.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/12/rep-adam-schiff-it-is-now-donald-trumps-word-against-everyone-else/
Steve
Labor can block in the Senate. They can vote with the Independent cross bench or on the Greens legislation or introduce their own bill.
Labor does not have to do the LNP “toothless tiger” version.
PhoenixRed
Trump should be negotiating a deal to resign.
But will he do it or get taken away from WH in straight jacket?
N
‘The problem is that they have capital strike and capital flight on their hands’
A trillion in managed funds has gone.
The trend graph for private sector investment in the UK is in large decline.
Victoria @ #2432 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 11:51 am
Apparently, the ring Road is flooded at the Plenty Rd exit. Stay safe over there!
GG
Or they can do what they did when they changed calendars (Julian to Gregorian?) centuries ago and just skip about 11 days so there is no March 29.
“Every time I think Morrison can’t possibly do anything more to debase the office of Prime Minister he surprises me again.”
He’s fighting like a cornered rat. There is no strategem too low, no lie too egregious, no smear too outrageous that he, his Government and media and business allies won’t stoop to. The story of How got got his seat says it all (linked yesterday- Google “Morrison Towke”. So does this: https://www.smh.com.au/national/morrison-sees-votes-in-anti-muslim-strategy-20110216-1awmo.html and this https://www.crikey.com.au/2012/02/29/dear-scott-morrison-your-claims-of-asylum-seeker-disease-show-no-medical-knowledge-leroy-needs-a-table-reconfigured-in-the-middle/.
BW
And Thatcher changed the UK so that it was so much more reliant on international financial services based in London. If these organisations keep shifting operations to mainland Europe it will badly damage the UK economy.
That could work
_____
TraumaDoc
@TraumaDocJSE
·
10m
Replying to
@TrueFactsStated
i think mueller will offer reduced sentence (for him or Ivanka) in exchange for on-air public admission of guilt to circumvent the 20-30% that won’t otherwise accept the findings.
phoenixRED @ #2066 Thursday, December 13th, 2018 – 10:53 am
🙄
When will people stop pretending that “Donald Trump’s word” is actually worth something? The man is a (quite maladroit) pathological liar and has plainly been so since well before the 2016 election.
Crediting his word as if it can offer any defense whatsoever is idiotic, or insane, or both.
It is 5°.
I hope this weather doesnt damage my raspberries. They have just started to ripen and oh so sweet.
So Ruddick basically has no problem with discrimination as long as those schools are out and proud about their discrimination.
I usually go to plaza back way from my place through kalparin gardens.
I wont be venturing that way today. I can imagine the lake being flooded!
Victoria says: Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 11:53 am
PhoenixRed
Trump should be negotiating a deal to resign.
But will he do it or get taken away from WH in straight jacket?
********************************************************
He is probably thinking he can get ‘bulk discount’ on years inside on the whole Trump Crime Family coming as a package deal.
I am sure if he can do anything to spare Ivanka from jail time – then he might take a resignation deal …..
‘Rocket Rocket says:
Thursday, December 13, 2018 at 11:59 am
BW
And Thatcher changed the UK so that it was so much more reliant on international financial services based in London. If these organisations keep shifting operations to mainland Europe it will badly damage the UK economy.’
Indeed. If the EU manages to swipe the lot it will gain a tax revenue of around sixty billion quid a year. Which the UK will lose.
Still, it is not all downside. With the Magic Money Tree, aka MMT:
If the Scots leave the UK they can do their MMT thing.
Ditto, NI.
Ditto, Wales.
Ditto, the Isle of Man
Ditto, Jersey and Guernsey.