Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from the latest Ipsos poll, although it adds to a picture of deteriorating personal approval for Scott Morrison.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.

Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.

The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

672 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  7. Lizzie:

    [‘…I think the Melbourne Herald-Sun supports the Libs right down the line.’]

    Yes, and I found it suprising that the Herald-Sun is reporting on the gig that went wrong. Five days out from the election, Guy’s image, however unfairly, has been dented, the average punter judging him in a 30″ grab tonight, with some coupling this incident with the lobster meal.

  8. For Kakuru,

    A new poll conducted by Deltapoll, which had a sample size of 1,199 showed that Brexit could tilt the majority of voters in Northern Ireland to support a United Ireland.

    Support for the idea remained low if the United Kingdom were to give up on Brexit and stay in the European Union. In that case, only 40% of those in Northern Ireland would support reunification.

    However, if Brexit goes ahead as it is expected to, that number jumps to 57%.

    If the UK leaves with a hard border, which currently looks eminently plausible, then that figure climbs further to 58%

    https://www.joe.ie/news/new-poll-suggest-majority-northern-ireland-support-united-ireland-brexit-639050

  10. Cud Chewer, “you have to clear immigration on arrival in the Republic of Ireland. Am I correct?”

    Good question. I don’t know but I did find this.

    If you are a non-EU/EEA and non-Swiss citizen and you wish to stay in Ireland for any reason for longer than 90 days, you must apply for immigration permission and (if successful) then register.

    http://www.inis.gov.ie/en/INIS/Pages/about-registration-system

    It implies that EU citizens and Swiss citizens are free to enter Ireland and stay as long as they want. They could then walk into Britain at the border with NI.

  11. So the UK crashing out of the EU would lead to the break up of the union with Irish Reunification and Scottish Independence. Brilliant results David Cameron.

  14. The Admiral Who Organized Bin Laden Raid Just Crushed Trump

    Trump criticized Admiral William McRaven for not getting Bin Laden sooner, OK, he’s a Hilary Clinton, uh, backer and an Obama-backer and frankly —

    McRaven, a former Navy SEAL who lead the successful hunt to kill Osama bin Laden, replied to Trump in a statement he sent to CNN on Sunday.

    “I did not back Hillary Clinton or anyone else,” he fact-checked. “I am a fan of President Obama and President George W. Bush, both of whom I worked for.”

    “I admire all presidents, regardless of their political party, who uphold the dignity of the office and who use that office to bring the nation together in challenging times,” he continued.

    “I stand by my comment that the president’s attack on the media is the greatest threat to our democracy in my lifetime,” he added. “When you undermine the people’s right to free press and freedom of speech and expression, then you threaten the Constitution and all for which it stands.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/18/the-admiral-who-organized-bin-laden-raid-just-crushed-trump.html

  15. Former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe destroys Trump’s ‘jackassery’

    Retired 3-star General Mark Hertling criticized President Donald Trump’s “unprofessional” comments against retired Navy Admiral William H. McRaven during a Sunday appearance on CNN.

    “What I would say in terms of my reaction is we can never become immune to this kind of narrative, to this kind of jackassery,” Hertling declared.

    We serve in the military the Constitution of the United States — we don’t serve an individual,” he explained.

    “This comment from the president was disrespectful, demoralizing, it was shallow and it was unprofessional,” he concluded.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/watch-former-commanding-general-u-s-army-europe-destroys-trumps-jackassery/

  16. FS

    It is Guy who has said that a person who had not attended Court on driving charges would have been in jail (for how long?)

    And his other presentations on “Law and Order” and “lock them up”

    So the examination of who Guy associates with and why is entirely appropriate

    He is a very, very shallow individual I can assure you

  18. JimmyD does it say what a “hard border” means?

    If the border only needs to bother you if you have goods, not people, is that “hard”?

  19. phoenixRED:

    [“I admire all presidents, regardless of their political party, who uphold the dignity of the office and who use that office to bring the nation together in challenging times,” he continued.’]

    Wow! That’s some putdown of Agent Organge. No sane president would attack the military as Trump has.

  20. I doubt any voter will be influenced by Guy visiting a coffee shop. Whatever the proprietor’s past, Guy was there to have a coffee and a chat with constituents.

    Some PBers are trying to set an impossible standard that no one could possibly meet. It’s childish.

    I can criticise Guy all day about policy and behaviour. But, people thinking this will influence any vote is delusional.

  21. Cud Chewer @ #315 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 12:25 pm

    https://www.ireland.com/en-us/about-ireland/travel-information/visa-passport-and-embassy-information-in-ireland/

    There is a passport check for everyone arriving in the Republic of Ireland by sea or air, even those from the EU.

    Citizens of the EEA member states (the 27 countries of the European Union EU, together with Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein) and many other countries including USA, Australia, Canada and New Zealand do not require visas to gain entry to Republic or Northern Ireland.

    Which, if people are then free to cross into NI, means that Irish Immigration is effectively British Immigration, which then is not a Brexit.

    I may be missing something, but the logic seems inevitable.

  22. phoenixRed:

    Yesterday on MSNBC it was reported that the Dems have gained 36 House seats, with five to yet be decided, the Dems ahead in 4 of them. That result is the biggest win for them since the post- Watergate election. Yet Trump still harks on that it was a “great result” – piffle.

  24. Mavis Smith, I am still enjoying the thought that after January a Democrat will be next in line for the Presidency after Pence.

  25. Mavis Smith

    No sane president would attack the military as Trump has.

    Good, the US could do with a little less forelock tugging and hagiography when it comes to their military.

  26. Cud Chewer – the agreement was deliberately left ambiguous as to what a hard border meant. Shared membership of the EU at the time of the agreement’s signing meant customs/trade concerns were redundant. But now of course, a hard Brexit means customs checks which (it is universally agreed) means a hard border which contravenes the GFA.

  29. Mavis Smith says: Monday, November 19, 2018 at 1:38 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Yesterday on MSNBC it was reported that the Dems have gained 36 House seats, with five to yet be decided, the Dems ahead in 4 of them. That result is the biggest win for them since the post- Watergate election. Yet Trump still harks on that it was a “great result” – piffle.

    ******************************************************************

    Trump Says Of Midterm Losses, ‘My Name Wasn’t On The Ballot’

    Despite frenetically campaigning, rallying and tweeting support for Republican candidates in the lead-up to the midterms, President Trump didn’t take any responsibility for the GOP’s losses in those elections in an interview with Fox News’ Chris Wallace that aired Sunday.

    “I have people that won’t vote unless I’m on the ballot, OK?” Trump said, later noting, “My name wasn’t on the ballot.”

    https://www.npr.org/2018/11/18/669037945/trump-says-of-midterm-losses-my-name-wasn-t-on-the-ballot

  30. Late Riser @ #221 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 11:06 am

    Here’s a thought. The US Presidential line of succession* is VP (Pence) followed by Speaker of the House (Ryan). The Democrats will soon replace Ryan with one of their own, possibly Pelosi. Can we imagine a scenario in which both Trump and Pence are removed? (Mueller?) The US would appoint a Democratic President to give the Democrats both the House and the Presidency. It’s an entertaining thought at least, and may explain some of the current GOP and WH angst. (And say it is President Pelosi, who would she pick as her VP?)

    *Thanks go to my OH for pointing out the ramifications of the Democrats winning the HoR and the line of succession.

    i don’t see a situation where Pence would get impeached – he is evil, but has kept himself squeaky clean at all times.

  31. poroti:

    [‘Good, the US could do with a little less forelock tugging and hagiography when it comes to their military.’]

    No argument there. However, the Golden Rule of politics holds that you don’t make unnecessary enemies, Trump having made it into an art form.

  34. Libs up after universal mockery of the muppet PM and his dysfunctional cohorts?
    Greens 13% ?
    Lab primary down?

    Baloney
    (with cheese on top)

  35. Kakuru – the sheer desperation driving DUP tactics over Brexit, the absence of a functioning government in NI, the establishment of Fianna Fail in NI and Sinn Fein in the Republic, NI’s majority vote to stay in the EU, and the emerging Catholic/secular majority in NI all point to a very fluid situation that is nigh on impossible to predict. But I would suggest to you that the current arrangement is untenable given the realities of Brexit.

  36. Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 1:33 pm
    I doubt any voter will be influenced by Guy visiting a coffee shop. Whatever the proprietor’s past, Guy was there to have a coffee and a chat with constituents.

    Some PBers are trying to set an impossible standard that no one could possibly meet. It’s childish.

    I can criticise Guy all day about policy and behaviour. But, people thinking this will influence any vote is delusional.

    ____________________________________

    It is purely and simply the hypocrisy of someone who is using a tragedy for a Laura Norder political campaign. To the extent that he expects the Government to adhere to a standard that he is incapable of, it may influence a small number of people who have above average sensitivity to gross hypocrisy.

    Beyond that, it would be no big deal (other than having no doubt that if Daniel Andrews had done it, Guy would have bashed it for all he was worth).

  37. You need to pay attention to how you promote yourself in the first place – and that is where Guy has his problem

    Because of how he has sought to promote himself he has set himself up for a fall

    Meanwhile the ASX continues its free fall with Medibank falling 9% and Telstra flirting with $3- and below

    The Indices which has never again reached where it was pre GFC is now down a further 11% post 31st August – and continuing in free fall

    The contradiction is the AUD given the interest rate outlook in Australia

    So where is the support for the AUD coming from and why?

    Are Frydenberg’s falling house prices and increasing rents attracting foreign property investors?

    Because it is not interest rate arbitrage and it is not Equity Market performance

    Or are Fund Managers bidding the currency up as they exit Australian asset classes?

    So they are not incurring a double whammy on prices and currency

  40. LongMemory82 says: Monday, November 19, 2018 at 1:49 pm

    i don’t see a situation where Pence would get impeached – he is evil, but has kept himself squeaky clean at all times.

    ***************************************************

    There have been suggestions that Pence may well be on Robert Muellers “persons of interest” list – due to his associations with Flynn way back in the campaign ….. guess only time will tell ….

  41. Regarding Brexit and the Irish question, I would observe that the Republic of Ireland is a lot less religious now than it was in the past. They have legalised ME, abortion, tried to charge clerics with child abuse, and elected an openly gay PM of Indian descent with a Hindu father. The power of the RC church over Ireland has greatly reduced, and I think that makes the prospect of reunification far greater than in the past.

    Ireland is now effectively a secular state – arguably more so than we are with ScumMo and the Liberal christian fundies in charge.

  42. New York Times, as of now

    House Election Results: Democrats Take Control
    218 for control
    232 Democrats Gained 37 seats 55,218,626 votes (51.9%)

    198 Republicans Lost 37 seats 49,265,585 votes (46.3%)

    5 undecided – current situation, waiting on postals
    N.Y. 22 D+0.8
    Ga. 7 R+0.4
    N.Y. 27 R+0.9
    Tex. 23 R+0.5
    Utah 4 R+0.2

  45. In the last few days Murdoch’s Hun (at least online) has been fairly even handed as regards Liberals and Labor although still giving the Greens a hard time.

    Even Murdoch can see that ‘African gangs’ and terrorists aren’t swinging the political pendulum Guy’s way and doesn’t want to be caught out backing the wrong horse.

    The punters have been moving money Labor’s way with Sportsbet now at 1.20 and Ladbrokes 1.18

  46. TPOF @ #334 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 1:53 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 1:33 pm
    I doubt any voter will be influenced by Guy visiting a coffee shop. Whatever the proprietor’s past, Guy was there to have a coffee and a chat with constituents.

    Some PBers are trying to set an impossible standard that no one could possibly meet. It’s childish.

    I can criticise Guy all day about policy and behaviour. But, people thinking this will influence any vote is delusional.

    ____________________________________

    It is purely and simply the hypocrisy of someone who is using a tragedy for a Laura Norder political campaign. To the extent that he expects the Government to adhere to a standard that he is incapable of, it may influence a small number of people who have above average sensitivity to gross hypocrisy.

    Beyond that, it would be no big deal (other than having no doubt that if Daniel Andrews had done it, Guy would have bashed it for all he was worth).

    I rest my case!

  47. Compare House Vote % with RCP Trump Approval Polls – Rasmussen, as usual, a joke

    Poll Date Sample Approve Disapprove Spread
    RCP Average 10/25 – 11/15 — 43.3 52.9 -9.6
    Rasmussen Reports
    11/13 – 11/15 1500 LV 49 50 -1
    Economist/YouGov
    11/11 – 11/13 1284 RV 45 54 -9
    Monmouth
    11/9 – 11/12 716 RV 44 49 -5
    Reuters/Ipsos
    11/7 – 11/13 2149 A 43 53 -10
    Gallup
    11/5 – 11/11 1500 A 38 56 -18
    NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl
    11/1 – 11/3 774 LV 46 52 -6
    CNN
    11/1 – 11/3 1151 LV 41 57 -16
    ABC News/Wash Post
    10/29 – 11/1 1041 RV 44 52 -8
    IBD/TIPP
    10/25 – 11/3 900 A 40 53 -13

  48. Observer,

    Meanwhile the ASX continues its free fall with Medibank falling 9% and Telstra flirting with $3- and below

    Daily closes are forming an ominous head-and-shoulders, if you follow the technicals… Supports at 5744, then 5675, 5525… then quickly down to sub-5000.

  49. ‘JimmyD says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 12:51 pm

    Brexit may well end up being solved by the Northern Irish, who may just decide that Irish unification is the price of staying in the EU.’

    NI gets a transfer from England of over four thousand quid a year per person.

  50. What are we into? 33 quarters without a recession.
    Longer without a severe inflationary event.
    The Millenials simply have no experience of what a recession or sever inflation is like.
    So they think that there is no possible downside and that things will only get better if you would just print more money

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