The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.
Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.
The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
swamprat
Yep they have the ‘hard border’ ready to go.
Abbott opens his mouth at good time lol
The Age
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13h13 hours ago
Tony Abbott rejects warnings, urges Scott Morrison to move Israel embassy
Bevan Shields
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9m9 minutes ago
Fairfax Media shareholders have just voted to merge with Nine. It’s happening.
Poroti
The new customs border force.
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=roman+legioanary&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari#imgrc=hsNGoXKoY5nQUM:
CBA boss Comyn in the box at the Royal Commission.
I would like to see his predecessor Narev there. He was in charge for the time when a lot of the dodgy business was going down.
It’s of interest to note that David Crowe’s commentary on the Ipsos poll appears to be an implied admission that it’s an outlier:
‘The poll’s findings also highlight the challenge facing Prime Minister Scott Morrison as he attempts to regain political support, with the government trailing Labor by 48 per cent to 52 per cent in two-party terms.’
Normally such a change in the 2PP would be greeted with, “Coalition narrows lead”, “Morrison’s
tour of Queensland bears fruit”, “Morrison’s within striking distance”.
I very much doubt the veracity of this poll.
Very odd twitter today:
Fairfax
2,546 Tweets
#BankingRC
Michael Janda is Tweeting about this
abc board
ASIC
Alexander Zverev
15.2K Tweets
Switzerland
40.5K Tweets
Finland
164K Tweets
US and China
Mavis Smith @ #206 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 10:41 am
The author implies no such thing. You do.
Just popping in for a good laugh about the S.A. liberals abandonment of their tramway commitment , as reported in an ABC piece mentioned here earlier on. Typically, the piece drags in a lot of extraneous stuff to paint Labor in as bad a light as possible. One reason for this being that a media united in its desire to be rid of Labor ignored everything they said about the impracticality of the liberal plans & happily cheered the liberals “Corse we’ll do it, easy…” election pitch. Abbottesque, really. I’m sure I heard last night that the liberals now concede they never really costed it pre election?
guytaur @ #150 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 5:34 am
LOL. If that happens it will become obvious even to the disengaged that the Libs are no longer in charge and will force them into calling an election to seek a “mandate”.
That will mean they will campaign on the basis of “We will not establish an Integrity Commission”, or “We will shut down the one that Labor and the crossbenchers have set up”.
That will go down r-e-a-l well with the electorate.
Bring it on I say.
I am sticking with a Labor win in the 2019 federal election, although not a terribly overwhelming one. Labor will win about 90 seats at most, the Senate hopefully can have some of these right-wing populists such as Anning and Leyonhjelm not re-elected. For example; I would happily vote for Mehreen Faruqi in NSW in order to get rid of Leyonhjelm.
If anything Bill Shorten is not being radical enough to rally the 99% vs against the top 1%. This country is very ripe for a Sanders like, if not like Corbyn like agenda. It was notable that Kerryn Phelps was running to the left! of the Labor party during the Wentworth by-election.
An IC is what we need, but i bet the greens will skuttle it. Why we will find out in the coming weeks
zoomster
Many of Victoria’s problems with public transport stem from this period (there’s an excellent book on this, called ‘The Land Boomers”) because the rail system was designed to benefit the business interests of the pollies and no one else.
_________________________________
And thank god for those land boomers when you think about it. Melbourne’s rail system today is still based on what they did. In fact, there is probably less rail than there was in 1910 when you think of those lines that have gone, the Outer Circle line, the Port Melbourne and St. Kilda lines.
There is a line on the Mornington Peninsula it just happens to be going to Hastings and in the 19th century, there were more people on the Bellarine Peninsula than the MP.
The polled Lib support in WA is completely consistent with anecdotal impressions. I think the Liberals will see their PV in the Senate fall into the late 20’s, meaning they will return at best 2 Senators. The Gs will be likely to get no more than 9% and Labor should get at least 40%. ON will poll about 4% at best.
AOC is a superb advocate for people-centred progressive policies. Americans need dozens more people like her in the House and Senate.
Tom:
[‘The author implies no such thing. You do.’]
Is there any more to come, such as a little analysis(?).
@Nicholas
My American online friends say that the right are really scared of her and they think she is future presidential material.
One bright spot for Morrison. The primary lead over Labor of 3pts, is the best poll since the Dutton mess of a challenge in August.
Tristo says:
Monday, November 19, 2018 at 10:48 am
It was notable that Kerryn Phelps was running to the left! of the Labor party during the Wentworth by-elections.
Bollocks. Phelps preferenced the Liberals. She opposes Labor tax reforms and implicitly supports Lib doctrine/theory on “sensible” economics.
Phelps is a small-l Lib and was tagged as such by the Liberals, including Turnbull.
She may have been echoing the Gs, but this does not make her “left”. It makes her an echo.
Hopefully this poll is an outlier – it is hard to see why anything would have improved for Morrison and I suspect the other polls showing people are coming off the fence not in his favor are more likely to be accurate. However, 52:48 is probably more like what we’ll see on election day so long as the choice is between Morrison and Shorten (I had a conversation of the weekend where even the most dyed in the wool labor supports expressed concern about Shorten’s ability to win well and then lead. Someone raised the old wish that Greg Combet hadn’t quit and the feeling was that we’d be looking at a >58:42 lead if he was leader).
Let’s hope Morrison decides to go for broke and calls an early election – he’s already wasting taxpayers resources running an election campaign (has a PM ever pulled a bus-tour/VIP jet stunt outside of an election campaign?). Labor should make that point – the waste of taxpayers campaigning and not government. could they get a FoI on the cost of the Qld bus/plane jaunt? the libs claim to pay for the bus, but the flights were all on the taxpayer. Bronnie went over a $4,000 helicopter flight, so they should be able to take out ScoMo the Clown with a release on the cost of this.
Greensborough Growler @ #199 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 10:34 am
It’s also a problem which may be being masked by the opinion polls. A lot of women may be saying, so that their husbands can hear when they are being polled on the phone, that they will be voting Liberal like their husbands, but in the sanctity of the voting booth they may vote differently.
So, even though this poll shows a substantial level of disaffection among women, there may be more to come.
Here’s a thought. The US Presidential line of succession* is VP (Pence) followed by Speaker of the House (Ryan). The Democrats will soon replace Ryan with one of their own, possibly Pelosi. Can we imagine a scenario in which both Trump and Pence are removed? (Mueller?) The US would appoint a Democratic President to give the Democrats both the House and the Presidency. It’s an entertaining thought at least, and may explain some of the current GOP and WH angst. (And say it is President Pelosi, who would she pick as her VP?)
*Thanks go to my OH for pointing out the ramifications of the Democrats winning the HoR and the line of succession.
I’m obviously not ‘in the know’. Who is “AOC”?
Somebody asked earlier why there hasn’t been anything from David Tyler, aka Urbanwronski. From his blog,
“Urban will be taking a break to undergo coronary bypass surgery. He looks forward to returning to writing as soon as possible.”
Briefly
I have been travelling the Great Northern Highway a bit lately to visit a friend in the country.
There is an older bus emblazened with Christian Porter and Liberal slogans parked in a farm paddock near Bullsbrook.
Hopefully Porter will be thrown under it by the good voters of Pearce.
sustainable future,
Greg Combet is happily back in obscurity. His health issues were becoming too much to cope with. He’s a marvelous man and I wish him all the best with his birds and his lovely lady. 🙂
So, is anyone able to answer my question from last night? Which is, how is it that, with random phone calls to random people, at random times of the day and night, on random days, is Ipsos able to consistently come up with a higher than average support level for The Greens!?!
Kakuru @ #222 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 11:07 am
Alexandria Occasio-Cortez
Shame, shame!
C@tmomma @ #226 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 10:12 am
The word “pseudo-random” springs to mind. 😉
Rossmcg says:
Monday, November 19, 2018 at 11:09 am
Briefly
I have been travelling the Great Northern Highway a bit lately to visit a friend in the country.
There is an older bus emblazened with Christian Porter and Liberal slogans parked in a farm paddock near Bullsbrook.
Hopefully Porter will be thrown under it by the good voters of Pearce.
🙂
I think he’s cactus. He’s fighting, but will fall short. The mood for change is real on the northern front.
Why are there no immigration controls at the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland? These are two sovereign states.
Do they have a special agreement?
The ABC coverage of the Victorian election is amusing.
The The Liberals look like losing handsomely, and so the electorate is ‘disengaged’.
While the WA poll in the West is heartening, the sample is very small. I would not overstate it the way they West has done in its headline this morning.
I doubt it will happen but it would be a change on election night to have the Sandgropers decide it.
It’s great to see WA turning to Labor, and were Handy Andie to lose his seat, such would be a bonus.
Banking Royal commission giving Com Bank a hard time on why pay bonuses instead of increasing base pay .. the reason Matt Comyn is struggling is because it willl expose executive remuneration scam
Cud Chewer @ #231 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 7:19 am
Yes, I only realised I had crossed the border by the changes in the road signs. 🙂
Cat – yes Combet is better off out of it, but it doesn’t stop us wishing he was LoTO and future PM
Tricot
I suppose the interesting thing is that The West has overstated a poll that is bad news for the Tories.
last week they turned the Mixmaster up to 11 on a story about Frydenburg’s negative gearing lies.
Stories that are a positive for Labor are rare.
Why are there no immigration controls at the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland? These are two sovereign states.
Do they have a special agreement?
The border is linked with 268 (often approximated as “up to 275”) border crossing points. Every month approximately 177,000 lorries, 208,000 vans, and 1,850,000 cars cross the border. Around 30,000 people cross the border daily to travel to work.
While it still exists de jure, the border presents no impediments to traffic in either direction. This has been mainly due to the Common Travel Area between Ireland and the United Kingdom, as well as a sharp reduction in cross-border activity by paramilitaries. EU integration has also played a part. Following the Northern Ireland peace process, military surveillance has been replaced by routine PSNI patrols.
Thanks C@tmomma. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez represents NY-14. My missus hails from (what is now) NY-6, pretty close by.
‘AOC’ is only 29.
Rossmcg
The unsatisfactory history of banking goes back to deregulation
In charge of their own Balance Sheets (which is as it should be) they have lurched from “grow the book regardless” to gazing at their navels due to Bad and Doubtful Debt provisioning then turning off lending
There has been no consistent and sustainable lending approval criteria – merely doing “deals” when in grow the book regardless mode and having “No” as the default decision when Bad and Doubtful debt provisioning occurs
This comes back to management and the focus on criteria and therefore education
Some Managers have or would have had Lending discretions and the significant number of these Managers are not skilled in analysis – including analysis of future performance
The banks tried to address this by establishing Credit Departments so all the front line banker did was submit applications
But the problem of criteria remained – and the decision maker had never been onto the business floor space
These days I understand that Bank Managers go around with laptops and insert data therefore giving decision up to a certain limit
No questioning
Just inserting data
For example I always put store in the QAR particularly as a measure of liquidity
But being the banker I could adjust the Trade Debtor Ledger to current and due (so factoring out tardy and potential non payers)
Equally, in regards Bank as a liability I knew what Working Capital facilities the Company (or Group) enjoyed at the bank so could transpose the liability to a credit reflecting the margin to the Working Capital facilities at bank
These adjustments, from the privileged position of banker (over and above those who prepared the Balance Sheet) allowed a more critical assessment of the Company or Group Working Capital Position (which was critical also by comparative because it identified the ability to meet dues as and when due so the measure of solvency)
In terms of explaining such a measure it was just not understood – and that was the problem
Computer says
Computers are but an aid
And banking being a risk industry you question and you question and you question
The easiest decision for a banker to make is to say “Yes”
The discipline of banking is to ensure the asset the bank (along with the equity of the business proprietor) have invested into performs to expectations
As I say, the problems go back a long, long way
Think Foreign Currency Loans – Non Trade and think Fixed Interest Lending (so Interest only servicing by extension)
Think of the problems our banks ran to in the late 1980’s/early 1990’s as the Savings and Loans impact spread globally (following the Stock Exchange crash of 1987) causing economic disruption and property devaluation
Bevan Shields
Verified account @BevanShields
1m1 minute ago
A man who accosted Scott Morrison at the Bathurst 1000 and called the Prime Minister a “fucking muppet” has been convicted and fined $500 for behaving in an offensive manner https://www.centralwesterndaily.com.au/story/5764445/youre-a-ing-muppet-race-fan-fined-for-abusing-prime-minister-at-bathurst-1000/?cs=9402 … #auspol
lizzie:
I don’t know whether you subscribe to Fairfax, but if you do you’d find far more crap stories on its site, billed as “Top Stories”. And once the merger with Nine comes to fruition early next year, I fear this once great masthead’s standards will revert to the stories covered by a “A Current Affair”.
Late Riser @ #229 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 11:18 am
Now, now. I know Teh Greens are a bunch of pseuds and randoms, but not both at once! 😉
“A man who accosted Scott Morrison at the Bathurst 1000 and called the Prime Minister a “fucking muppet” has been convicted and fined $500 for behaving in an offensive manner ”
Offensive to whom? Muppets?
Zoidlord @ #241 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 11:33 am
Truth tellers in society are always treated harshly, especially when they speak truth to power. 🙂
C@t..
It’s also a problem which may be being masked by the opinion polls. A lot of women may be saying, so that their husbands can hear when they are being polled on the phone, that they will be voting Liberal like their husbands, but in the sanctity of the voting booth they may vote differently.
#metoo has struck a chord with millions of women and this is percolating through to political expression. I have had plenty of conversations with women recently in which past harassment, violence, sexual assault and objectification has been raised by women. Some of the stories related to me are just heartbreaking and, I have to say, the courage shown by these and other women is really unmistakeable. There is no doubt at all that women are going to express their feeelings about sexism, misogyny and the violence they have encountered; and that means they will favour Labor – the party that has elected female leaders, that promotes women in winnable seats, that defends women’s rights.
Women very correctly identify the Liberals as a blokes club, as yet another example of males taking whatever they want and sharing it between themselves to the exclusion of women. There is no doubt at all that the majority of women believe the Liberal Party is opposed not only to their interests and their opportunities but also to their personal dignity and, ultimately, to their safety. The Liberal Party represents an entirely anachronistic repudiation of women’s expectations, rights and capabilities.
Labor owes a large part of its popularity to its unswerving commitment to the empowerment of women.
Barney so if there is some kind of immigration agreement between the UK and the Republic of Ireland, I presume that stays after Brexit.
But if the UK drops out of the customs union doesn’t this mean you’ll have a “hard border” between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland where there will be customs checks (ie goods) but no immigration checks?
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5h5 hours ago
John Symond not so long ago:
“Negative gearing is a great tax break, but it needs a total overhaul to make it fairer. First home buyers have no hope of getting into home ownership these days unless they’re helped by their families.”
#auspol