The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.
Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.
The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
‘fess,
Yes, I saw his comment. I’ve been spending all day trying to figure out which one he was! 😆
I see nath has seen fit NOT to mention all the free kit Julie Bishop has trousered.
Apropos of what my eldest son is getting into atm:
https://youtu.be/3-wjmIFlnNo
C@t:
I always figured Yabba was from Victoria. What are the odds you and he were at the same function ?!
But I wonder if the members would be happy with that figure, which is 3 yearly aged pension entitlements. Surely he must know someone who could fill this position as a favour.
Asking for professional services to be done for nothing as a favour would be undercutting labour, essentially asking someone to work for nothing, and I would certainly hope the members of the Labor party would not support such a position. It’s like asking a musician to perform for free for “the exposure”.
How about politicians putting their hands in their own pocket and paying for things themselves.
Sounds like a great way to ensure that only the independently wealthy can participate in politics (to the extent that isn’t already true!).
Although I say that knowing that Grimace, Briefly and WWP were at the same event when Shorten went to the Perth Hills recently.
The AFR, being a Fairfax publication are consistent in their attacks on Labor particularity in regards Negative Gearing, Franking Credits and changes to Capital Gains Tax
And they have this week attached Stiglitz – going back to 1981 to support that Stiglitz has changed position in regards attacking the attack on the reduction of penalty rates
These are just random observations of the AFR, where the readership is business (there are no Sporting Pages) plus they give opinion to the likes of Dean and others known for their Right wing agenda, an agenda Stiglitz attacks hence the attack on Stiglitz
Against this back drop they Poll
And they frame their questions
And their results – results that do not stand up to analysis
As with assessing Markets, you never rely on times earnings per se because different sectors, sub sectors and entities have differing times earnings
So you drill down and you drill down – and that is just an indicator because from there the real work of assessing commences
Including because assessments are ongoing to confirm revenue, margin, liquidity and support for the Balance Sheet
The reporting of the AFR, with its audience, does not attend the analysis pandering instead to its audience
Lots of pages but no meaningful analysis because they report business – by business for business
They do not assess business because that may lose them their audience
The assessment of Fairfax is that it seeks to merge with the Phoenix 9 Network (Costello) as the minority entity
So times earnings, revenue including trend, Margin therefore liquidity (to meet dues as and when) and the contribution to the Balance Sheet?
With the result that the Phoenix 9 is the senior partner
Says something doesn’t it?
As far as I can see the Poll reporting puts the best possible light in the Conservative support by utilising preferences from the last election and not the preferences identified by their polling
And that energy pricing is the issue
Well, guess what?
Energy pricing is the issue
The question is how can that issue be addressed
Where is the polling on that?
Is blame for the savage increases in energy costs over the past 5 years because of renewables and the investment in renewables or because of the lack of investment in renewables – so should we embrace coal?
And if we embrace coal who are the investors, noting the market trend and the problems encountered by the former Dow 30 Company, General Electric as but one example?
So simplistic questioning to achieve a result
Never ask a question unless you know the answer
People are using the high GRN % as a reason to ignore Ipsos. That’s flawed. The pollster always has a high GRN percentage. The way William would deal with it is as a house effect, and the rest of us should too. The GRN % is down compared to the previous poll by 2%, that seems to fit with the most recent Newspolls that have had them at 9%, when it was 10 (and I think a stray 11) before that. So, the Greens are down this month. The other primaries are out of step with other polls. But if you don’t have a poll at the extreme end of the MoE occasionally then the result is being manipulated, if we consider all the recent polls. I simply take this to mean that the 2PP is more like 54:46 than 55:45.
Confessions @ #102 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 11:05 pm
Oh, I knew he was up the coast a little bit from me. He mentioned the suburb he lives in once and I knew it. 🙂
I guess you must have thought Yabba was from Victoria due to all the scraps he has with GG. 😀
Very rational and sane perspective, DVC. 🙂
Observer
At the airport today (leaving Victoria for a few days pre election!) I was reading the AFR which I rarely do.
You summed it up – the articles look interesting by their titles, but there is actually very little real analysis in them. It’s like The Australian, where the writer starts with a conclusion then selects factoids, quotes and ‘vibe’ to reach said conclusion.
I can go back to not reading it again. And to think that when I delivered newspapers many years ago I thought that the very few houses where I delivered this to (two or three times a week in those days?) must have been where very important people lived!
And if Blowfly Borrison has visited PNG I wonder if he went to the Fly River and Ok Tedi?
When in another life we flew in by helicopter from Mt Hagen and the JV Parties including the PNG Government had been funded by a consortium of banks about to mine more than the gold the prior proprietor had licked off the surface the site was what it was
Past that was the legacy – and the disaster
Wonder if the Blowfly visited?
Probably.
DVC
When all the polls are the same it’s herding isn’t it?
Marktheballot site has excellent regression analysis like Bludgertrack, and the TPP for the Coalition took a big dive after the coup, recovered a bit and is now sinking back to 46-47.
It might just be me, but I want to know what Bree has done with Wayne. (Essential this week, I hope.)
Rocket Rocket, it’s only herding if the pollsters deliberately choose to make their results more like other results or expected results.
If pollsters keep getting the same result (perhaps because they have large samples and similar methodology) that could simply represent the view of the electorate and isn’t itself evidence of herding.
Herding tends to be common just before an election, since it’s better to get the same wrong result, than to be wrong on your own. However, afaik, there is no evidence of herding in Australia (which would look like suddenly getting closer to Newspoll in the last poll).
Is it possible for things to get worse for the Greens?
The Herald-Sun is reporting that a staffer of Lidia Thorpe (Greens member for Northcote) has been tweeting misogyny and porn
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/18/apec-summit-mike-pence-warns-of-chinas-constricting-belt-and-one-way-road
China’s influence in this region is spreading, inexorably.
Meanwhile, the US is flailing.
No big write-up of Ipsos in the SMH as at approximately 1am Monday.
Seems the SMH crowd are reluctant to even pretend to believe it.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/greens-staffer-sees-humour-in-child-porn/news-story/d71f2f7814368b66f593a89945b5130e
No, it’s there – the lead article in fact. They’ve just buried the voting intention underneath the stuff about Muslim immigration. My immediate sense of which is that they do not, indeed, trust their own numbers.
Oh good, more pearl-clutching about out-of-context jokes among friends on social media.
I suppose if it were a staffer of Bill Shorten it would get a small article on page 20 of The Australian.
In this new age I suppose people need to realise that what they put on social media may come back to haunt them even if they subsequently deleted it.
We have certainly told our kids that future employers will likely search all sorts of information about them so they need to remember that every time they post pictures or comments. That’s life – 21sr Century style.
I post on this blog with the understanding that one day everything I have ever written here might be re-read if say I run for office.
ajm: Ipsos is a live phone pollster calling both landlines and mobiles.
March 9 (not 10) is not a likely federal election date as it is a public holiday weekend in several states. The previous weekend is a public holiday weekend in WA but that didn’t prevent an election being called on it in 1996. If an election is held on March 2 then NSW can be postponed to April 13.
Davidwh says:
Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 10:49 pm
Frednk the poll was taken from last Wed to Sat so any dead cat bounce is well and truely dead and not relevant.
In that vase I am wrong and Morrison should go to an election tomorrow. Destroying our relationship with Indonesia clearly has the support of the swinging voter.
Morning all. This is only a local SA issue but sure enough, the new government’s election promise about how trams would run has proven impossible and quietly dropped. Nice one, SA Liberals.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-18/sa-government-scraps-right-turn-for-adelaide-trams/10508610?WT.ac=statenews_sa
Reading the Ipsos poll further shows the headline about reducing muslim immigration is just clickbait. 46% want muslim migration reduced. But a virtually identical 45% want overall migration reduced. The problem is declining real wages and straining infrastructure for most people, not muslims. Migration is too high given our current lack of economic growth.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-australians-split-on-muslim-migration-ahead-of-new-population-policy-20181118-p50gt0.html
It’s actually quite a good article. I think it is insightful to take one of the sillier propositions and see how it is argued and defended. There utube videos are particularly entertaining. I still can’t believe anyone takes it seriously; but there you go.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/18/flat-earthers-keep-the-faith-at-denver-conference
At a time when evangelicals are facing somewhat of a public relations crisis–backlash against their LGBT stance, prosperity doctrines and overwhelming support of the Trump 2016 campaign, observers say it makes sense they would bristle at any associations with the flat Earth movement.
Tony Abbott is out howling again. Must be a full moon soon.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-rejects-warnings-urges-scott-morrison-to-move-israel-embassy-20181118-p50gtq.html
Caught up with an old friend who is a long time Liberal on the weekend. He is very dissappointed with both Abbott and ScumMo. Only Turnbull has left office with good grace and the backstabbing is “as bad as Labor”. Have a good day all.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
David Crowe on the contents of the Ipsos poll.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-australians-split-on-muslim-migration-ahead-of-new-population-policy-20181118-p50gt0.html
And he tells us that Abbott has urged Prime Minister Scott Morrison to proceed with a controversial shift in policy on Israel despite a warning from Malaysia that the move could fuel terrorism and concerns from Indonesia over a $16.5 billion trade deal.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-rejects-warnings-urges-scott-morrison-to-move-israel-embassy-20181118-p50gtq.html
Commonwealth Bank chief executive Matt Comyn and chairman Catherine Livingstone will be called to explain the bank’s stubborn defence of flawed processes, faulty products, banker bonuses and clumsy cover-ups when they front the Hayne commission this morning.
https://outline.com/x7C8Lv
James Eyers tells us that over the next 10 days, the banks’ top brass and their regulators will face a barrage of questions from senior counsel assisting and royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne more intense than typical inquiries from politicians, analysts, investors or journalists. He outlines the key issues that will be probed.
https://outline.com/KUGNyy
Pat McConnell writes that the royal commission is about to grill the chiefs of the big four banks and tells us that soon they mightn’t exist.
https://theconversation.com/the-royal-commission-is-about-to-grill-the-chiefs-of-the-big-four-banks-heres-why-soon-they-mightnt-exist-106339
Phil Coorey reckons that his time Labor’s climate and energy policy might just work.
https://outline.com/cWftpw
Meanwhile Labor’s Environment Action Network (Lean) has warned the ALP it will not give up on securing a significant overhaul of federal environment laws in the first term of a Shorten government, and a national environment protection authority to police the framework, despite an embarrassing process stuff-up with the draft policy platform.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/19/labor-to-face-pressure-on-environment-policies-after-embarrassing-stuff-up
Jess Irvine begins a five part series on the policy chaos eroding our faith in democracy.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/the-policy-chaos-eroding-our-faith-in-democracy-20181115-p50g8l.html
Ross Gittins wonders if our politicians are up to the task of managing our privacy as Big Data marches on.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/benefits-from-big-data-at-risk-from-untrustworthy-bungling-politicians-20181118-p50gq3.html
Fox News host Chris Wallace went after President Donald Trump for his attacks on the news media in an interview that aired on Sunday, telling the president he is “seen around the world as a beacon for repression” because of his rhetoric.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/fox-news-host-tells-trump-world-sees-him-as-beacon-for-repression-20181119-p50gua.html
Tony Walker writes that whether the Bourke Street assassin Hassan Khalif Shire Ali was radicalised by Islamist ideology, or simply alienated and under the influence of drugs, is less relevant than the broader question of what is to be done to maintain community support for a non-discriminatory immigration program.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/bourke-street-terror-an-opportunity-to-revisit-immigration-debate-20181116-p50ggc.html
In the first of a regular Independent Australia column, colourful Melbourne racing enthusiast, legitimate businessman and alleged Russian bot John Wren gives his take on this week’s events in Australian politics.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/john-wrens-week-in-australian-politics-week-beryl-osullivan-and-scott-morrison-speaking-in-dumb,12113
Andrew Taylor explains how Sydney’s north shore could have a population denser than parts of Manhattan under plans released by the state government.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-government-accused-of-conducting-alarming-experiment-on-sydney-20181115-p50gb3.html
Former Domain chief executive Antony Catalano is making a late bid to halt the proposed merger of Fairfax Media with Channel Nine.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/18/ex-domain-chief-launches-late-bid-stop-fairfax-nine-merger/
The APEC meeting didn’t finish up too well!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/damaging-dispute-apec-summit-ends-on-a-sour-note-20181118-p50gt3.html
The schism between Washington and Beijing has dramatically widened following the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, with the no final communique issued after China refused to sign in protest the language used on reforms to the World Trade Organisation.
https://www.outline.com/CPZfpa
Richo opines that Australia’s security agencies do not receive anywhere near the praise they deserve for keeping us safe. The record here for terrorist attacks is free of mass slaughter. He says the terror alert will not affect the Victorian election.
https://outline.com/Pvdxmh
In an interesting contribution Ralph Ashton explains how short-term thinking is creating long-term problems.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/short-term-thinking-is-creating-long-term-problems-20181107-p50egn.html
Theresa May is soldiering on, earning support from unlikely quarters, and showing that she is at her best when at her weakest.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/18/sympathy-creeps-in-for-besieged-theresa-may
The Australian Building and Construction Commission is getting results, says the man appointed as the latest – and possibly last – head of the controversial watchdog. Dana McCauley reports that the organisation’s days appear to be numbered.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/construction-watchdog-defends-his-patch-in-shadow-of-abolition-20181116-p50gh7.html
Weather experts based in Adelaide now have the technology for a heatwave warning system to protect the vulnerable in the days before disaster potentially strikes. The ability to issue a 24-hour electronic warning for any Australian Bureau of Meteorology weather district is the culmination of almost a decade of work, in the wake of the deaths of 435 people in Australia’s 2009 southern heatwave.
https://outline.com/eHqKR5
Stephen Loosley poses the question: How should Australia productively harness the talents of its former prime ministers, especially those who have the serious qualities of a Hawke or Paul Keating or John Howard?
https://www.outline.com/rnMAHd
Michael Koziol reports that the recently-departed head of SBS, Michael Ebeid, has delivered a scathing verdict on the ABC’s tumultuous year, arguing the entire board should leave and calling for an upheaval of how directors are chosen at both public broadcasters.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/former-sbs-boss-says-entire-abc-board-should-consider-resigning-20181118-p50gqy.html
Prof. Megan McKenzie writes about research into why military suicides are so common – and it’s not mostly because of combat.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-military-suicides-are-so-common-the-answer-isn-t-combat-20181113-p50fmm.html
And for today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week” we have . . .
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/high-court-quashes-retrial-bid-by-mafia-boss-20181118-p50gss.html
Cartoon Corner
Mark David goes for peak ridicule here!
Peter Broelman one year in to marriage equality.
Jon Kudelka at APEC.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/fc21754cc961c01ef28fc2b97d440cef
More in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-19-2018-20181118-h181gb.html
William Bowe @ #121 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 1:06 am
(I think this deserves repeating. What an expert thinks about the poll)
David Crowe also being sober about Labor’s likely Energy plan to be released this week:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-has-a-simple-message-to-mps-cut-carbon-emissions-as-well-as-power-bills-20181118-p50gt2.html
With all the bad Coalition decisions that need to be reversed, this is not the outlook we need.
Crikey.
Will any journo at a presser ask for Morrison’s opinion about this?
https://www.9news.com.au/2018/11/18/21/21/60-minutes-brian-houston-hillsong-church-founder-under-police-investigation
Morning all
BK
It was reported on 60 minutes last night.
First thing I thought of was Morrison and what he would have to say in response. Considering he expects the Islamic leadership to be responsible for the nut job in Bourke Street last week.
Good Morning
It would be good if some Labor people listened to BB about the Australian.
You don’t have to be so against the Greens in a campaign to ignore the real enemy of Murdoch.
The point Pegasus was making Cat was that Murdoch is no friend of Labor as well as that of the Greens.
This is just fact. Not a pro Greens holier than thou attack on Labor.
Fran’s excitement at the Ipsos 6 point turn-a-round a little muted this morning..but I still detected a little squeak of delight……
I am pleased that there is pushback within the LNP against the Embassy decision.
We are in the Rudd period of the RGR wars. The difference is that Rudd was popular Morrison is not.
Labor united behind Rudd to save the furniture. The LNP cannot unite behind Morrison to do the same.
More division being highlighted will see that primary vote continue to be low as moderate liberals in previously safe seats abandon the party like they did in Wentworth.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/19/labor-to-face-pressure-on-environment-policies-after-embarrassing-stuff-up?CMP=share_btn_tw
guytaur,
Good morning to you.
Who in the coalition is pushing back about the Jerusalem move ?
Cheers.
Lizzie
Mr Shorten is smart. Not only is he backing a Federal ICAC or NIC if you prefer. He is making sure voters know its not just the cross bench and the Greens that are moving against corruption and making it crystal clear its only the LNP opposing one.
Great positioning for the coming defeat of the LNP as parliament votes for a Federal ICAC. I don’t think Bob Katter will be able to stand with the LNP on that one either. Just as he has come to the party on Newstart. Those Labor preferences he has to worry about.
Its going to be very interesting when the rubber hits the road and the LNP has political reality hit them in the face that they are in fact a minority government.
I think we should be very clear and focus on what the media has been ignoring to a large degree other than the good reporting by Michael Koziol of the SMH on that Turnbull spray on the LNP not being able to back climate change.
The moderates are abandoning the Liberal party. They are backing conservative independents in the mold of Oakshott Windsor McGowan Phelps et al.
With the balance of power the moderates have control of the agenda not the right wing. So things like the Newstart rate being raised is supported. Same with a Federal anti corruption body. Same with ending Manus and Nauru prison camps.
This is as big for our country as the Democrats winning the Midterms for the US. The timing is sweet too. 🙂
Doyley
https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/11/15/ciobo-privately-walks-back-israeli-embassy-move/
Cobol has doubled down again today
One of the reasons we pay pollies money is because we know what happens when we don’t.
Victoria, for example, did not pay its pollies to begin with. Only those with independent means and something to gain thus ran for office.
Many of Victoria’s problems with public transport stem from this period (there’s an excellent book on this, called ‘The Land Boomers”) because the rail system was designed to benefit the business interests of the pollies and no one else.
So for years I lived in a wasteland on the Mornington Peninsula with an excellent rail service (whilst the other side of the Peninsula, where people actually lived, had none at all) because in the late 1800s all the land around belonged to a Victorian MP.
A few decisions, made over a century ago, by politicians with vested interests, still impacts adversely on Victorian residents today.
Doyley
Damn autocorrect. Ciobo has doubled down again today according to the ABC morning news
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-15/indonesia-fta-in-limbo-amid-israel-embassy-review/10499030
Meanwhile:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-18/liberals-preference-gay-conversion-promoter-on-buninyong-ticket/10508978
I’m not sure the Liberal candidate’s explanation does him any favors here.
So Satan writes dictionaries now!
SBS News is reporting the new situation accurately as well
@SBSNews tweets
Labor and the crossbench could collaborate to force the establishment of a federal anti-corruption watchdog in the final parliamentary sitting weeks of 2018, unless the government agrees to a bipartisan deal. http://bit.ly/2KePCkH