The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.
Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.
The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
Who gives a rat’s what Ipsos says?
You might as well start reporting Morgan results!
Ipsos is over a month. As this is the month we saw the dead cat bounce the result will very much depend on the days it was taken.
frednk says:
Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 8:16 pm
Rex Douglas
The Greens have got to the point where no-one trusts them. No one actually knows what they stand for.
This is the party that has a leader that thinks it is acceptable to pay Au Pair’s $150 a week; tell me Rex do you support that?
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A little known fact. The $150 was in addition to a fully self contained unit, not just a room, an entire unit with kitchen, bedrooms and lounge. With utilities Di Natale estimated the whole package as worth $500 for 25 hours work a week. I’ll leave it for others to work out if that is fair.
Looks like Morrisons messaging on energy has cut through.
What’s Bill Shorten going to counter with ? …or will he capitulate and fall into line like he did with the offshore torture camps ?
Good evening all,
Accept the poll results as they are.
Last month was 55-45 to labor and a lot of posters ( myself included ) accepted it as a great result and a great poll.
This month, not so good. Accept it. Ipsos jumps around.
Run with the good months. Accept the less good.
Cheers and a great night to all.
Rex Douglas @ #5 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 8:27 pm
God, you are so predictable.
Maybe this Ipsos will convince ScMoFaux to go early?
27 January call an election on March 10 2019
NSW election 2 weeks away on 23rd March? No worries, GladysB will prorogue and put NSW election back a month or so
Rex,
Your angst will be answered on Thursday.
Labor will release its energy policy on that day.
Cheers.
I think it should be duly noted that it’s Labor that are ahead. Still.
How very disappointing.
sprocket,
Morrison and co will laud this poll for all it is worth but behind the noise they will simply wipe their arse with it.
Cheers.
I think if Morrison went before the NSW election it may help Labor in NSW inadvertently, because if Abbott or Dutton got the leadership after the election it would be a gift to NSW Labor.
Ipsos 52-48. Ok for Sunday. Essential on Tuesday?
In 2010, the Greens got 13%, the one and only time they polled so high – most recently polling and languishing in th 8/9s
If this 13% in Ipsos for the Greens is correct, we have been oblivious to the resurrection being performed by RDN. Hidden talents.
sprocket_ @ #8 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 5:28 pm
I thought I heard on Insiders the budget has been set for April 18 (don’t quote me on the exact date in April), enabling an election in late May or early June at the absolute latest.
Confessions @ #11 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 8:31 pm
Shows how important messaging is when Morrison can cut through with dud policy.
Can Shorten cut through with his energy messaging …?
Just saw Morrison with Muppets on the bus on Insiders. Priceless.
Confessions @ #11 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 7:31 pm
Money is a blunt instrument.
nath @ #4 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 8:26 pm
There’s nothing like Socialist Greens rationalising their Bourgeousie behaviour.
Late Riser:
That it is.
This result will confirm the next election will be framed around the cost of energy.
Can Bill Shorten sell a clean/low cost energy policy ?
(From previous thread, modified for more info)
That Ispos poll isn’t credible. A 3% shift in a month(?). What could have caused it? Labor on 34, just above its 2013 nadir. Pretty unlikely. Greens 13? Ditto.
No conspiracies, it’s likely an outlier on the low side. With a sample size of 1,200, the MOE is 2.8%. It is also possible that last month’s 55 was high. Both results are consistent with a Labor 2PP of 53-54.
A back of the envelope calculation on those numbers:
ALP 2PP = 34 + o.8*13 + 0.45*16 = 51.6.
Honestly given the nature of the media in this country, Bill Shorten and his team preferring to engage in social media is a good strategy. Since the media is either centrist or centre-right (Fairfax, ABC and SBS) or firmly right-wing (News Limited).
Personally I can only stand to read The Guardian, along with watching ABC or SBS. Because of the bias towards political right in this country’s media. News Limited are so bad that they allow white supremacists to write columns in their papers and appear on Sky News.
Nath
$500 per week for 25 hours work equals $20 per hour. Minimum wage is about $ 18.40 per hour, casual loading 25% takes it to $23.00 per hour.
Under paid around $75.00 per week or 15%.
Sounds fair when you take into account that she was working for the greens national leader. The glorydazzle factor like working in the royal household.
Boris says:
Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 8:43 pm
Nath
$500 per week for 25 hours work equals $20 per hour. Minimum wage is about $ 18.40 per hour, casual loading 25% takes it to $23.00 per hour.
Under paid around $75.00 per week or 15%.
Sounds fair when you take into account that she was working for the greens national leader. The glorydazzle factor like working in the royal household.
_______________________________
Yes it didn’t strike me as the most generous arrangement, but hardly slavery. He should reimburse them at least to the minimum you have identified. It may have been very handy for travelers looking for a self contained unit but yes, probably not good enough.
C@t @8:28 “God, you are so predictable.”
Rex isn’t a Deity.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 8:40 pm
This result will confirm the next election will be framed around the cost of energy.
Can Bill Shorten sell a clean/low cost energy policy ?
So this is now the greens policy?
Bugger the environment!
As I said it’s hard to know what the greens now stand for.
Rex Douglas @ #22 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 5:40 pm
They will be selling pretty much the same NEG policy the Liberals had before they rolled Turnbull. This will be a sight to see watching Frydenberg, now Treasurer and Morrison the then Treasurer try to argue against it. 😆
Go home Ipsos; you’re drunk.
People don’t wanna pay high power prices… well no kidding
Morrisons message on lower energy prices is predicated on propping up expensive coal power… which makes no sense. It is just a recipe for higher prices.
IT is really easy for Labor, new renewable generation is cheaper than the coal nonsense this government is pushing.
Nicko @ #30 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 8:47 pm
It should be very easy for Shorten, I agree.
Personal polling shows he isn’t respected though, so it will be interesting how it goes.
“This result will confirm the next election will be framed around the cost of energy.”
While not a Deity, Rex is right on this. Whenever climate or emissions are mentioned, Morrison anyone in the Government talks power prices. This has been going since Morrison took over and before then. Labor’s response needs to be to call bullshit and explain why. Renewables have nothing to do with the increase in power prices equivalent to 5+ carbon taxes over the Abbott/successor Government.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/fairfax-ipsos-poll-australians-split-on-muslim-migration-ahead-of-new-population-policy-20181118-p50gt0.html
“But another 46 per cent believe the intake should be reduced a lot or a little – a position backed by a clear majority of Coalition voters and one third of Labor voters.
:::::
The inverse applied among Labor voters, with 53 per cent putting a priority on carbon emissions and 36 per cent naming household bills as the primary objective.”
A little bit of noise tomorrow over APEC and this poll ( perhaps ) and then the rest of the week until Thursday all about energy/ climate policy as labor prepares to release its policy just as summer approaches and the government delares gloom and doom even before they know any detail.
Just remind me. Who is setting the agenda and who is in government ?
Cheers.
PM Morrison is cutting through, looks like Australians are with him on the Jerusalem embassy move rather than Labor/Greens who would rather side with Indonesia and Malaysia over Australia.
nath says:
Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 7:04 pm
frednk
says:
Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 6:56 pm
Pegasus
Given the continual attempt to wedge labor, the continual same/same crap do you think labor really cares what happens to the greens?
________________________________
I wonder how the ALP would like it if the Greens preferenced the Libs in marginal seats.
The Gs could try that. Oh come the day. Their support would evaporate instantly.
Unemployment at 5% and a budget surplus by the end of the year (something the previous Labor government failed to deliver). PM Morrison can win the next election on the economy alone.
“PM Morrison is cutting through, looks like Australians are with him on the Jerusalem embassy move rather than Labor/Greens who would rather side with Indonesia and Malaysia over Australia.”
Spot on Bree. I reckon ScoMo should take his messaging approach all the way up the dial to eleventy all the way to Election Day. In fact, he should dissolve parliament now and call a six month tele-evangelical campaign. Think of the rapture. Think of the landslide! I know I am …
At the moment there is a huge vacuum in Australian politics with the government failing to articulate any energy policy at all.
Labor will fill this vacuum this week in the lead up to Thursday and then ongoing debate about labor policy.
In the other corner will be the coalition with nothing to offer except labor bad and related noise.
Remember, business has had a gutful of the vacuum and labor will be very happy to step up.
Cheers.
Sure, people want electricity prices to go down. However, in 5 years the Coalition have been unable to achieve this. I know my electricity bills haven’t gone down. Have yours?
So, you can promise to deliver lower prices for your power, but surely, if you don’t, you will be marked down.
Labor not popular in Queensland either, Galaxy poll shows its 50-50 and Galaxy also shows its 55-45 to the Coalition in Herbert (seat held by Labor).
@Nath
Spinning that extra $150 doens’t mean shit all, no one can survive on that.
It gives credibility to Newstart.
Ipsos is a shit poll.
In the other corner will be the coalition with nothing to offer except labor bad and related noise.
More even than that, the Morrison government will be going ahead with building a Coal-Fired Power Station in Far North Queensland to supply electricity to PNG. Bugger the Climate! Bugger the Great Barrier Reef!
I’m sure the nation will love them for that. Not.
@Bree
Galaxy state politics, federal politics was different.
And Galaxy was one poll, the others show higher.
It is very reasonable for Australia to aim to stabilise its population, reduce its total resource depletion level, and reduce its total waste generation level.
There is nothing racist about that.
Some societies do not have enough per capita consumption to provide decent standards of living. In those nations, increases in per capita consumption of real resources are sustainable and morally justified.
But for advanced societies the imperative is to reduce the total amount of resource depletion and the total amount of waste generation.
ABC RN:
Public policy in Ausralia and our risk-averse leaders
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/talkfest/2018-11-17/10451968
“The problem with Australian politics today is its leaders are just too afraid to take a risk. We need a sense of purpose, a national strategy, a quality political class, more citizen engagement with public policy, and more unity to forge ahead. That’s what former Western Australia Premier, Geoff Gallop (ALP), and political editor of The Sydney Morning Herald, Peter Hartcher, have been debating.
It can take years to change public policy on controversial issues. Supervised injecting rooms are a case in point. If Australia follows trends overseas, how long will it take before cannabis is legalised here? Greens’ leader Richard Di Natale, and the leader of Victoria’s Reason Party Fiona Patten look at what it takes to get change.”
https://www.wheelercentre.com/broadcasts/podcasts/the-fifth-estate/public-health-and-drug-policy-today
Public health and drug policy today
“In the 1980s, Australia was an early adopter of free needle syringe distribution programmes. At the height of the AIDS epidemic, this controversial harm-reduction strategy played a crucial role in mitigating the spread of HIV among Australian injecting drug-users.
Despite our history of success with harm-reduction approaches, legislators – and large portions of the public – remain squeamish about these policies. Across Australia, parliaments are still more inclined to pass punitive anti-drug laws. But is this working, and is this even cost-effective, in the context of our spreading problems with ice?
Richard Di Natale and Fiona Patten both worked, in differing capacities, in public health prior to their careers in politics. Both have been vocal and active with regards to drug legislation since entering parliament. With Sally Warhaft, the pair discuss the possibilities and limitations of harm reduction
in Australia.”
Of course the Coalition and the usual suspects in the media will have already written their responses to Labor’s energy policy. It will be a total disaster, it will hurt widows and orphans, the cause a massive increase in power prices, cause mass unemployment, the economy will collapse and a giant wombat will devour Devonport.
They will have left a few blanks in their responses to add a couple of deliberately misrepresented and out of context references to the actual policy.
Of course the Government and its cheer squad’s response will be complete bullshit, although I’m worried about the wombat.
Bree,
Your cheesy paeans to the Coalition getting the Unemployment Rate to 5%, if you are consistent in your logic that you support them for that reason, must mean you will vote Labor at the next election. They got the Unemployment Rate UNDER 5% during the GFC! Not only that, but Labor also had a much smaller Deficit than the Coalition, or Gross Nett Debt as ScaMo loved to bleat about when he was in Opposition and Labor were in power. 😀
Oh Democrats, what are you doing?! Just elect Pelosi speaker, she’s likely to be retiring in two years anyway. But this fracturing around race, identity and gender is ridiculous when you are facing down the most racist, misogynistic and hate-fuelled president in a generation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/fight-for-house-speaker-explodes-into-national-political-campaign/2018/11/17/afc17ae8-e9cf-11e8-b8dc-66cca409c180_story.html?utm_term=.f81c55b3cbcc