Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another national poll finds a narrowing in Labor’s lead, but there’s less encouraging news for the government out of Western Australia.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.

The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).

There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Yesterday at the royal commission Rowena Orr dropped a bombshell at Catherine Livingston over the potential criminal illegality of scant board minutes writing. All in all Ms Livingstone did not have a good day.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-accused-of-board-minutes-breach-20181121-p50hcp.html
    The 24-hour trial by royal commission of Catherine Livingstone has ended, with the Commonwealth Bank reporting mixed ­success in its no-expense-spared bid to save the reputation of its chairman.
    https://www.outline.com/GHkvkW
    And Elizabeth Knight says that the royal commission’s corporate governance gold medal for the category of “refusal to accept responsibility” must be awarded to former Commonwealth Bank chairman, David Turner.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-s-gold-medal-for-refusing-to-accept-responsibility-goes-to-20181121-p50hfv.html
    The AFR explains that Kenneth Hayne looks like reshaping the governance of Australia’s leading public companies judging from the line of questioning directed at Commonwealth Bank of Australia chairman Catherine Livingstone and chief executive Matt Comyn.
    https://outline.com/phLGTj
    At the commission yesterday Westpac chief executive Brian Hartzer said the bank was unable to quantify what proportion of a billion dollars in fees it will have to repay customers who were charged with services they never received because the records were so poor.
    https://outline.com/Nz5tK8
    And Aaron Patrick goes to the yesterday’s ten minutes that shamed the CAN’s board.
    https://outline.com/j3r9Ch
    Jess Irvine looks at the inevitable shake up that will happen with the mortgage broking industry. It’s certainly overdue.
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    Greg Jericho says that the next frontier in the attack on welfare is likely to be on government spending on essential services.
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    Matthew Knott writes that the Morrison government should block right-wing US provocateur Gavin McInnes from entering Australia next month because of the strong risk he will incite violence during his visit, according to former Australian Border Force chief Roman Quaedvlieg.
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    In a highly critical article John Hewson says that Morrison’s captain’s call on Israel embassy was a misguided stunt.
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    David Crowe reports that in a speech from Bill Shorten today Labor will vow to underwrite a series of mammoth new energy projects that ramp up the supply of renewable power, in a long-awaited plan that sidelines a bipartisan agreement in Parliament out of concern the Coalition cannot agree on a united policy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bill-shorten-sets-new-course-on-climate-boosting-renewables-and-subsidising-batteries-for-100-000-homes-20181121-p50hgz.html
    Crowe writes that when it comes to climate/energy policy Shorten has learnt from the political disasters that swamped Gillard and Rudd.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/on-climate-policy-bill-shorten-has-learnt-from-the-political-disasters-that-swamped-gillard-and-rudd-20181121-p50hht.html
    The SMH editorial advises Morrison to avoid population populism.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-must-avoid-population-populism-20181121-p50hfm.html
    Meanwhile Morrison has accused ­senior members of Australia’s Muslim community of being in denial about the causes of Islam­ist terrorism after top community leaders announced they would boycott a proposed meeting convened by the Prime Minister to tackle extremist violence.
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    Micheal Koziol writes that the peak legal body has warned Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton an attempt to deport alleged foreign criminals before trial would endanger national security and undermine natural justice. The push by the Home Affairs department to allow unlawful non-citizens facing criminal charges to leave the country without facing court has also angered public prosecutors and attorneys-general.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lawyers-warn-home-affairs-bid-to-deport-alleged-criminals-without-trial-threatens-national-security-20181121-p50he9.html
    The seat of Warringah will offer a lot of entertainment over the next six months or so!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abbott-gives-turnbull-benefit-of-the-doubt-on-vote-tony-out-instagram-follow-20181121-p50hhu.html
    The PM remains mute as his mentor, Pentecostal Pastor Brian Houston, is investigated for covering up child sexual abuse but demands Muslim leaders take responsibility for their communities’ criminal behaviour, writes Dr Jennifer Wilson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/why-is-scott-morrison-protecting-hillsong-pastor-brian-houston,12123
    It seems Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party could be the main beneficiary of the “preference whisperer” Glenn Druery’s lucrative work on the Victorian state election. According to media reports this week, Druery is on leave from his day job as a Justice Party staffer in the office of Senator Hinch. Academic and journalist, Dr Martin Hirst, crunches the numbers and reports.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/victorian-election-micro-party-candidates-to-do-well-in-legislative-council/
    Stephen Koukoulas writes that the usually careful and well considered Reserve Bank of Australia is taking a huge gamble on the Australian economy into 2019 and 2020 as it rolls the dice on house prices.
    https://thekouk.com/item/650-the-rba-rolls-the-dice-on-house-prices.html
    A “crisis” in Australia’s child protection services is forcing government agencies to resort to glossy advertising campaigns and mass hiring sprees in a desperate attempt to attract staff to key frontline roles. An investigation by The New Daily has revealed child protective services across the country are battling to attract new talent and combat staff attrition in crucial positions.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/21/child-protective-services-in-australia/
    A small but vocal Liberal Party branch in Sydney has passed a motion calling on Malcolm Turnbull to be expelled by the NSW division.
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    A food delivery company and a powerful union have proposed alternative ways of regulating gig economy workers to avoid lengthy court battles over whether they are really employees and not independent contractors.
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    Emma Koehn reports that lawyers acting for former Retail Food Group chief executive Tony Alford have argued it would be unconstitutional for a parliamentary inquiry to force him to appear for questioning.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/former-rfg-boss-alford-claims-forced-appearance-unconstitutional-20181121-p50hd2.html
    Matt O’Sullivan looks at a worrying Sydney infrastructure symptom apparent in one busy location.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/transport-mess-passengers-at-one-sydney-station-nearly-double-in-three-years-20181119-p50gwf.html
    Phil Coorey tells us how the nation’s 3000 largest businesses will be forced to pay their bills to small and medium enterprises within 20 days as a condition of future government contracts and they will have to disclose every year the details of how promptly they pay bills to these enterprises.
    https://outline.com/HJp4jy
    Jane Gilmore is not overly impressed with Kelly O’Dwyer’s announcement about women being able to access their superannuation to escape domestic violence.
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    Peter FitzSimons gets straight to the point when he says the common factor in rugby league atrocities is plain to see – it’s drinking.
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    Military historian Peter Stanley tells us that the Australian War Memorial should cease engaging in the mercenary drive to please corporate suits, and focus on the people it ostensibly serves.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/commemoration-without-conscience-the-war-memorial-must-remain-sacred-20181110-p50fb0.html
    The Defence Department could hide the results of audits into billions of dollars in military spending by using the same excuse the federal government has in suppressing parts of a report into a $1.3 billion spend on armoured vehicles, an inquiry has heard.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/auditor-general-gag-could-apply-to-more-defence-projects-inquiry-told-20181121-p50hfj.html
    The Australian’s Cameron Stewart writes that Trump has decisively turned America’s moral compass away from human rights and ­towards realpolitik by allowing Saudi Arabia to escape sanctions over the Jamal Khashoggi murder. The decision is a blunt statement about the sort of internat­ional misbehaviour Trump is prepared to tolerate in pursuit of his America First foreign policy.
    https://outline.com/ZKgKWM
    Secret deals, mates’ deals and the promise of riches after politics all undermine democracy and the power of ordinary citizens. The following investigation of fossil fuel networks in Australia – put together by Adam Lucas and curated by Simone Marsh – is designed to deliver public awareness.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/revolving-doors-australias-fossil-fuel-networks/
    The Age has analysed the true crime statistics applying to Victoria.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/beyond-the-spin-what-has-happened-to-crime-in-victoria-20181108-p50eqt.html
    Helen Hunt explains why fellow farmers are fighting the Inland Rail route.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-great-train-robbery-why-farmers-are-fighting-the-inland-rail-route-20181121-p50hef.html
    The Morrison government’s plan to roll over forestry agreements for another generation is dire news for endangered species, writes the is the national director of the Wilderness Society.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/logging-deals-are-death-warrants-for-native-animals-20181121-p50hhh.html
    The European Commission and Italy have escalated their stand-off over Rome’s expansionary budget, prompting Brussels to kick off a sanctions process that could saddle the EU’s fourth-largest economy with fines totalling billions of euros.
    https://outline.com/YquUVt
    Steve Bannon’s political operation to help rightwing populists triumph in next year’s European parliamentary elections is in disarray after he conceded that his campaign efforts could be illegal in most of the countries in which he planned to intervene.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/21/steve-bannons-rightwing-europe-operation-undermined-by-election-laws
    Christopher Knaus tells us that an inquiry has heardt he Coalition’s unprecedented suppression of parts of a report by the auditor general has prompted fears that future criticism of Australia’s massive submarine and naval shipbuilding projects may be suppressed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/21/coalitions-redaction-of-arms-deal-report-sparks-fears-shipbuilding-criticism-will-be-suppressed
    More than 350 South Australian doctors have signed an open letter protesting the closure of two suburban sexual health clinics amid warnings it will lead to a spike in unplanned pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections.
    https://outline.com/9DfYMq
    This politics lecturer says that the Greens are set to be tested on a number of fronts in the Victorian election.
    https://theconversation.com/the-greens-set-to-be-tested-on-a-number-of-fronts-in-the-victorian-election-105857
    Two of the biggest wholesalers of the national broadband network are not delivering NBN Co’s new cheaper bundles in full to retailers, a failure that has contributed to the collapse of at least one NBN reseller and predictions that more will follow.
    https://outline.com/k3S9E6
    The Washington Post says that US Chief Justice John Roberts has issued an extraordinary statement in response to Trump’s criticism of federal judges.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/us-chief-justice-john-roberts-rebukes-trump-on-obama-judge-comments-20181122-p50hiq.html
    Orders to US factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell by the largest amount in 15 months with a key category that tracks business investment showing weakness for the third consecutive month. Trump will probably blame the Democrats for this.
    https://outline.com/edaJdw
    Tony Featherstone wonders if Australia’s largest cities at risk of being swamped by international tourists. He looks to overseas experience to make his point.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/tourism-backlash-overseas-provides-lessons-for-australia-20181120-p50h5r.html
    Interested? I’m not!
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/how-bali-nine-drug-mule-renae-lawrence-spent-first-moments-of-freedom-20181121-p50hi8.html
    It’s an easy choice for today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/father-faces-murder-charge-after-baby-girl-s-body-discovered-on-gold-coast-beach-20181121-p50hf6.html

    Cartoon Corner

    At the royal commission with David Rowe.

    Mark David compares Morrison to Trump.

    And he drops in on the modern Liberal Party.

    Paul Zanetti with Morrison and immigration.

    Jon Kudelka and the fun-loving Turnbulls.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/b598367f74a8572c635e1f8d57d4ee0e
    A cracker from David Pope as he gives us Trump the Turkey.
    https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/dc9453a0a3ce7b84adde846532eb8955f8de7d6b
    FDOTM.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/21/womens-lives-as-a-political-tool-girl-power
    More very good ones in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-22-2018-20181121-h186lp.html

  2. Any policy by the liberals, especially major ones like FRAUDBAND and NEG are designed to:

    1. Cost the tax payers and blame Labor.
    2. Give money to the spivs who would only benefit it.

    The sooner the people can reconize it’s bogus Ponzi schemes, the fuxking better.

  3. C@t

    Since you say blogs are not “harmless fluff”, then perhaps you will now strive to remedy your abusive ways which are more frequent than any other blogger.

    I note you still propagate the lie that disagreeing with a woman is misogynistic. Your glasses are anything but rose coloured.

  4. BB

    Cops were not waiting for Ms Lawrence at Brisbane. Maybe Newcastle.

    But given the complicit role of AFP in having her arrested at Bali, and not on her return to Sydney with the drugs, and given the harshness of her long gaol time there compared to what it would have been in a NSW gaol, it is not impossible that the NSW DPP will issue a permanent stay on the car stealing matter.

    I have no doubt that the silly 28 year old “girl” no longer exists, and that Ms Lawrence is now a pretty wise 41 year old woman.

  5. I think 52-48 has come about over this negative gearing fear campaign.It should be called for what it is. A f……g big tax rort for the rich.

  6. Morning all. Thanks BK. Zoidlord:

    “Any policy by the liberals, especially major ones like FRAUDBAND and NEG are designed to:
    1. Cost the tax payers and blame Labor.
    2. Give money to the spivs who would only benefit it.”

    Yep, that nails it. So many of the infrastructure projects I have had to analyse for work in the past six years fall into one of those two categories.

    Not joking, in this respect the MadMonk/Truffles/ScumMo era has been the most poorly governed era in Australia’s political history I have seen in my working lifetime. Howard was a shameless ideological warrior, but he didn’t stuff around with tender processes using public money and public assetts.

  7. To clarify my previous post, Howard cheerfully sold off public assetts, but he got a good price for them and the money went back to tax cuts for better or worse. Now the money ends up straight in the hands of big law and finance firms.

  8. The FDOM cartoon is good, with some black humour on what the governments War on Women is achieving. I also like the swipe at racist anti-immigration rhetoric, with this line:

    “African drivers in Sydney block road to Jerusalem”

  9. Mrs Shellbell wins Pro Bono Lawyer of the year from a field of dedicated women.

    Disappointingly, it does not come with a massive cash prize, but at least presents the chance of being declared unAustralian by Peter Dutton to Ray Hadley.

  10. If the Coalition wants to campaign on a right-wing populist message which divides the 99% against each other. Labor should campaign on a left-wing populist message. Such a message would be the 99% against the 1%, this message about challenging the power of the corporate class over Australian life, who combine very well with the agenda of the various social justice movements.

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