The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).
There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.
We are not referring to children are we? So, back off with the staw man argument.. We are dealing with adults…no… wait… okay I accept your point.
Why? The NEG was specifically designed to placate the global warming deniers in the Liberal party. It has no other purpose.
IMO, the NEG was calibrated to fail, but structured in a way that Labor could change its targets easily enough. Thus Labor wouldn’t try to push through a new policy (why burn the political capital), and the (moderate) Libs could claim it as their’s in future electoral cycles.
It matches with Malcolm’s demonstrated tactical genius that this cunning plan blew up in his face, and also left the Libs wedged. I refer to ratsak’s Rule No. 1.
I came out as
You’re most similar to:
Barack Obama
Former US president
And
You’re least similar to:
Donald Trump
US president
clem attlee @ #1148 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:34 pm
You don’t get it, do you? Haven’t you read about ex-partners who harass their former wife or husband via social media? Or schoolkids that engage in cyber-bullying? In fact, I read about one guy who used his Smart Home tech to victimise his wife and keep tabs on her.
It happens!
And you never know where or when it might happen, by whom, and to who, and what the effect of it will be on the person/s attacked. Especially when it is persistent.
clem attlee @ #1151 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:36 pm
There are posters on here who are clearly emotionally invested in PB. I won’t name them, but I think most of us know who they are, and can see just how important PB is to them.
I realize you don’t get it. This is your problem as much as theirs.
“IMO, the NEG was calibrated to fail”
100% and even designed to fail in 6 different ways, it failed in a 7th way spectacularly.
The ALP is clearly playing a tiny terrified target strategy, the real test is whether or not they’ll try to govern with a terrified tiny target strategy (like the incredibly disappointing shrinking WA Labor Govt)
Libertarian Unionist @ #1152 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:36 pm
Mal left a landmine buried in the political landscape.
Labor has just stepped on it.
Dan Gulberry @ #1134 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 7:23 pm
Closest to Obama, least similar to TRump. Can so live with that!
Bushfire Bill @ #1150 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:36 pm
Rubbish. P1 gets it.
re Populism quiz. I am closest to Pablo Iglesias, a left winger propping up the Spanish government, and I am farthest from Drumpf.
The lack of polling for the Victorian election says something about the media and the expected result.
And just to prove how different I am in the way I look at things:
Bot sooo unlike Donald Trump. Which is a relief.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/anything-good-say-neg-new-report-says-no-21489/
“The Turnbull government’s proposed National Energy Guarantee would fail in almost all of its stated goals – including its core goal of boosting power system reliability – and would only benefit the owners of coal fired power generators, a new report has found.
In a stinging critique of the NEG prepared for the Australian Conservation Foundation, energy economics consultancy CME says the NEG – the detail of which remains scant – would deliver an inefficient and opaque electricity market that deliberately hides emission prices and undermines competition in wholesale and retail markets.
The report – co-authored by CME director Bruce Mountain, who has been vocal in his concerns about the NEG – also argues that the policy would deliver outcomes to protect coal generators from competition from increasingly cheap wind, solar and battery storage.”
“Mal left a landmine buried in the political landscape.
Labor has just stepped on it.”
Um what how?
@Sohar
Leroy just posted in the Victorian thread, favoring Victorian Labor.
yabba,
Snap!
And, no, I wasn’t sitting at the table with 5 bottles of wine on it. I only had one small bottle of cider the whole time I was there.
I got the same as Cat.
Just for the sake of facts: Labor’s Energy policy, to be announced tomorrow, is not the NEG. The NEG was the scaffold upon which the policy was built.
Pegasus @ #1167 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:48 pm
Now I AM depressed! 😆
I WAS around then Dan. I saw them all. I just kept a low profile.
I got:
You’re most similar to:
AMLO
Mexican president
Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected earlier this year on pledges to fight corruption, moderate the ‘war’ on drugs, and champion ‘the forgotten people’.
You’re least similar to:
Donald Trump
US president
Donald Trump is the president of the US. He has repeatedly failed to condemn radical rightwing activists, and for a time employed Steve Bannon on his presidential team
The Coalition were calibrating NEG to fail with a renewable target that would almost have been met by the time it started, plus standards lowered sufficiently to allow new coal fired power.
However, in the hands of Labor, it can be salvaged. It had business on side, it actually had a large tranche of the Coalition on side. It seemed to have public support. Now while the public say they want something done about climate change, that support is pretty shallow. By and large those who determine the outcome of elections don’t want to pay an extra dollar in bills or tax to back up their belief, so anything that is too ambitious would be risky. There’s no point in Labor building something perfect that will be torn down in the next election cycle.
It will be a second- or third best plan, but it can be improved in future. 80% or maybe 50% of what we want, not 100% of nothing.
“yabba says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 10:44 pm
re Populism quiz. I am closest to Pablo Iglesias, a left winger propping up the Spanish government, and I am farthest from Drumpf”
Same for me Yabba!
shellbell:
[‘…the jury who most likely will be properly instructed as to their role and very likely follow their instructions.’]
That really is quite naive. What you’re suggesting is that the publicity concerning Hayne will simply disappear into the ether once the presiding judge gives the standard warning.
The leaking, most likely by police, gives rise to a genuine question as to their partiality, and moreover is very prejudicial to a fair trial, despite the requisite judicial caveat.
As said previously, Hayne’s matter should be seen in light of Pell’s trial, where particulars of the allegations against him have been kept mum – and for good reason.
I came out close to the Mexican President, furthest from Trump.
frednk
If one had a CBD building one might want gas powered cogeneration for redundancy; is there any fundamental reason why that wouldn’t work? (as opposed to the idiocy in the gas market and whatever has affected various attempt to do this)
What about a hospital or other building where redundancy is required? Obviously they have on-site stored fuel for their backup generators, but wouldn’t it also make sense to have gas from the network as a second option? (on site store of gas might not be appropriate)
What about CBD traffic lights? (could use battery)
The gas network is there (in the inner city), and likely to be so for some time I would think (it should of course be publicly owned since private ownership of networks is a fundamentally stupid idea)
On the SMH home page the story about Hayne is next to one about somebody who went to Bali for cheap dental work ….
Steve777 is right re NEG; it can be re-parameterised over quite a wide range and 80% of something is well worth pursuing.
Turnbull’s problem was to find parameters that both satisfied the coal rollers’ desire to virtue signal doing nothing whilst simultaneously virtue signalling doing something. The coal rollers are experts in the discovery and analysis of virtue signalling (in fact it is one of their principal obsessions), and they were onto him.
Dan Gulberry:
Frank was a true Labor foot-solidier, who posted without a persona, as was gusface. I’ve seen Truthy post in other forums. And you’re correct to say that compared to those days, PB is now a ‘Royal Garden Party’.
Well said steve777
I’m still none the wiser as to what the green spammers think is fundementally wrong with the NEG.
they’ve spammed rhetoric but no arguments
Peg re: NEG:
“the policy would deliver outcomes to protect coal generators from competition from increasingly cheap wind, solar and battery storage”
It depends on the definition of reliability. People who know how to build reliable systems know that any current form of centralised coal is less reliable than wind, solar, wave etc. It’s not even close.
Player One, I ‘get it’ only too well. People used to utilise late night talk back with Tony Delroy, now they come on here.
“the detail of which remains scant”
Just perhaps, once the detail is fleshed out …….
On this site it really is “spot the Green”
They are unelectable and dangerous
Hence well past their use by date – which expired when the hard working and committed Bob Brown retired from the parliament
Bob Brown had a focus – and was able to have influence accordingly
P1 and Peg,
You are quoting the same person, who happened to get a lot of airplay because of his bombastic response to he NEG, not because of the depth of his analysis.
Red Ted:
If one had a CBD building one might want gas powered cogeneration for redundancy; is there any fundamental reason why that wouldn’t work? (as opposed to the idiocy in the gas market and whatever has affected various attempt to do this)
The joys and costs of retrofitting cogeneration are simply not worth it. I am fairly well across City of Sydney’s efforts on this front, and suffice to say they won’t do it again.
Plus cogen is not particularly flexible relative to a single building’s load (they really don’t like being turned off).
Plus the heat output is much more than we usually want in Aus (particularly in summer), although fine in many places in Europe, Nth America and Asia.
Building cogen into a refurbished public pool is a good option.
“Steve777 is right re NEG; it can be re-parameterised over quite a wide range and 80% of something is well worth pursuing.”
I think in short the NEG was largely irrelevant what matters is where, if anywhere, you put taxpayer dollars, putting them to coal is both stupid and polluting, to wind and solar pure and good, to storage, although very necessary, somewhere in between.
I’m still none the wiser as to what the green spammers think is fundementally wrong with the NEG.
they’ve spammed rhetoric but no arguments
There are more direct and transparent methods of encouraging investment in renewables and stabilising services than the NEG.
That’s about it. There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with it, it’s just more complicated than it needs to be to achieve the desired outcome.
Nuff said. Night all
A Shorten government would subsidise batteries for 100,000 homes — paying $2000 to eligible families — and set a goal of installing them in a million households within six years as a means of reaching its 50 per cent renewable energy target by 2030.
The renewables target will be locked in as the centrepiece of Labor’s energy policy agenda along with a 45 per cent emissions reduction target on 2005 levels.
In a move that will invite comparisons with the Rudd government’s disastrous taxpayer-funded insulation program during the global financial crisis, Bill Shorten has promised to make the $2000 payment to every family earning less than $180,000 a year to install a battery in their homes.
The Opposition Leader will claim that a $10 million training fund would be established so only accredited battery installers were able to take part in the scheme.
Launching Labor’s major energy policy today, Mr Shorten will also vow to implement the Coalition’s abandoned national energy guarantee if it can secure bipartisan support in the next parliament but will not legislate the emissions target, which goes beyond the Paris accord.
The move to increase subsidies to renewable energy projects, following the Coalition’s dumping of the renewable energy target, will include a scheme for renters, including solar gardens on rooftops of buildings, and community wind farms. The total cost of the household renewables program, including the battery installation rebate, will be $215.9m over the four-year forward estimates.
However, Mr Shorten has flagged further heavy-industry subsidies for renewables which he has yet to put a price tag on but are expected to cost several billion dollars over the medium term. In releasing the opposition’s much-anticipated energy policy Mr Shorten has laid down an unambiguous point of difference with the Coalition. Labor’s plan to “underwrite” renewable energy and storage is in contrast to the Coalition plan to underwrite the construction of new “clean-coal” and gas projects.
Mr Shorten will confirm that the 50 per cent renewable energy target and 45 per cent reduction in emissions compared with 2005 levels — both with a 2030 timetable — are now locked in as election commitments.
“A Labor government I lead will be prepared to directly underwrite and invest in cleaner, cheaper power for Australia,” Mr Shorten will say. “We will prioritise renewables and support firming technologies like storage and gas. Labor will invest in new generation, in better transmission and distribution — because we realise this vital nation-building work cannot be left up to the big power companies.”
Mr Shorten will challenge the Morrison government to resurrect the NEG, which was dumped as Coalition policy following a minority revolt within the Coalition partyroom in the week before Malcolm Turnbull was forced to step down as prime minister. “I repeat Labor’s offer of bipartisanship, we are prepared to keep the national energy guarantee on the table,” Mr Shorten will say in his keynote Bloomberg address in Sydney.
“The parliament could debate and vote on this before Christmas, if the Liberals were so inclined. And if I am elected as prime minister, I will sit down with the new opposition leader and the crossbench to talk about a way we can move forward with this framework.”
He will say if the NEG can’t be resurrected, Labor will push ahead with a separate plan.
Elements of the energy policy released ahead of today’s speech detailed the battery and community renewable plan that would allow for low-cost loans for households to invest further in battery storage.
Mr Shorten will claim that battery storage will save households who take up the offer almost 60 per cent on their current energy bills.
Anticipating comparisons with the Rudd government $2.7 billion home insulation scheme, Labor sources said the battery-installation program would be constructed under vastly different structures.
Labor’s 2009 roof insulation scheme was condemned by a royal commission after shoddy installations sparked hundreds of house fires and led to the deaths of four people.
The battery program would require people to buy only battery systems approved by the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission and installed only by the highest certified installers. The government would have no role in supply or installation.
The scheme would begin in January 2020, provide for a rebate of $500 per kilowatt hour of battery capacity, and be capped at $2000 for households earning less than $180,000 in gross annual income.
Mr Shorten said this would support up to 100,000 battery installations and triple the number operating in Australia. The policy claims this would benefit all electricity users by cutting peak demand and lowering prices overall.
Low-cost loans through the Clean Energy Finance Council would be available to households wanting to purchase more expensive battery systems. Conditions on the scheme include a requirement that the battery systems be virtual power-plant capable and limited to one per home.
Simon Benson
Labor’s energy policy will shift votes….lots of them. The Liberals have signed up to non-policies. This is an area where the differences are very clear.
Labor have put their cards on the table regarding energy policy.Its hard to see Scomo copying that battery installation policy
I did the populism test @ the guardian….have come out some way to the left of Obama, in the non-pop quartile.
As far to the left as Pablo Iglesias, but less populist….cool. I’m not Trumpy….I think I knew that.
steve davis says:
Thursday, November 22, 2018 at 12:33 am
Labor have put their cards on the table regarding energy policy.Its hard to see Scomo copying that battery installation policy
The Liberals have blown themselves up on energy policy. Labor can promise lower prices, greater household ownership of their energy assets and markedly lower emissions all at the same time. And they can stay away from coal, which is utterly toxic in the community.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/teenage-girl-sold-facebook-auctioned-father-south-sudan-marriage-forced-a8644461.html
fb has been used to auction a girl for marriage…..
A father was not challenged as he used Facebook to auction off his teenage daughter for marriage, despite the social media giant having a 30,000-strong community moderation team, a children’s charity has claimed.
Plan International said five men in South Sudan had bid to wed the 17-year-old, possibly including high-ranking government officials. Facebook only deleted the father’s post after his daughter had been married, it added.
A wedding ceremony was held on 3 November in the country’s Eastern Lakes State region, the charity said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-21/softbank-is-said-to-join-1-billion-funding-of-indonesia-startup?srnd=premium-asia
It’s no wonder that retailers such as Myer are about to become extinct.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-live-latest-update-pmqs-theresa-may-deal-jeremy-corbyn-eu-second-referendum-a8644116.html
Brexit – live: Theresa May threatens ‘no Brexit at all’ as senior Tories put new referendum on table
Brexit may yet self-combust.
New thread.
pica @ #1173 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:57 pm
And me.
E. G. Theodore says:
Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 11:08 pm
frednk
If one had a CBD building one might want gas powered cogeneration for redundancy; is there any fundamental reason why that wouldn’t work? (as opposed to the idiocy in the gas market and whatever has affected various attempt to do this)
It’s what I used to design. They work quite well, trigen makes good sense, but the gas has become too expensive.
What about a hospital or other building where redundancy is required? Obviously they have on-site stored fuel for their backup generators, but wouldn’t it also make sense to have gas from the network as a second option? (on site store of gas might not be appropriate)
They are and will remain diesel. The fuel has to be stored on site. I was of the view that liquid gas would become an option but it isn’t going to happen. Australian hospitals are design to operate for 24 hours+ without utilities for very obvious reasons.
In Australia the utility is the first option. major hospitals try for two connections.
What about CBD traffic lights? (could use battery)
The gas network is there (in the inner city), and likely to be so for some time I would think (it should of course be publicly owned since private ownership of networks is a fundamentally stupid idea)
Yes to the above, the finkel report was interesting, Victoria is going to run out of gas.
BBC has announced “100 Women” list for 2018.
Julia Gillard No.36
She was interviewed and the broadcast was a few minutes ago on ABC overnight NewsRadio
Link:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-46264594/
Worth a listen!