The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).
There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.
Guess I’ll go eat my Ipsos baloney (with cheese on top) then 🙂
Wow. People are disappointing.
I am amazed. A pity bounce? How many people are dumb enough to fall for “fair dinkum ScumMo”?
Meanwhile he still cannot actually run the country. I wonder how many farmers yet realise they will be the ones who really pay for the embassy move? If they still vote COALition after this they deserve what they get.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-agriculture-exports-targeted-as-global-trade-tensions-deepen-20181119-p50h0v.html
What is noteworthy is the large percentage of people willing to vote for Independents, this might mean the Liberals and Nationals losing a number of safe seats to Independents. It might be the beginning of a split in the Liberal party into two separate parties.
These “small l” Liberal independents will in the longer term form into a “radical centrist” party like En Marche! in France, Ciudadanos (Citizens) in Spain or prehaps the Five Star Movement (M5S) in Italy.
Could also mean a swathe more members of the (non-L/NP) batshit crazy right in the senate.
INB4 arrogant elitist lefties criticize the australian electorate.
@A different Michael
Changes to the Senate electoral system and the sheer fragmentation of the populist right is going to make it more difficult for Senators of these parties to be re-elected.
The NSW Planning department would be more at home in Joh Bjelke’s Queensland. Why no prosecutions for corrupt conduct?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-wouldn-t-play-ball-department-of-planning-manager-sacked-20181119-p50h07.html
52-48 2PP to the ALP is about what I expect to see at an election. While 54-46 looks good I don’t think you will see that kind of vote for the ALP federally unless the govt does something really stupid. That’s not to say they are competent at the moment but the coalition are still set to lose govt on these figures and I think 48 is the top of where they will get to.
We live in hope.
I keep coming back to “they’re a weird mob” thanks to John O’Grady. Bloody hell!
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Jeez, what a bunch of grumpy graws were polled by Essential this week!
Liberals counting on end of protest vote effect in backing Dave Sharma to run again in Wentworth:
“Dave Sharma will have our 150 per cent support in Wentworth,” a senior Liberal said.
Another senior Liberal said “we spent $800,000 raising his profile – he has to run again”.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sharma-to-contest-next-election-as-liberals-get-wentworth-payday-20181119-p50gzb.html
Oh dear. Lucky ScoMo isn’t a member of Hillsong, isn’t it?
I love the unaware symmetrical hypocrisy of this comment. 🙂
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Here’s the Guardian’s report on its latest Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/20/labors-lead-over-coalition-narrows-in-guardian-essential-poll
Lenore Taylor says that with Fairfax gone, the need for diversity in Australia’s media is greater than ever.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/nov/19/with-fairfax-gone-the-need-for-diversity-in-australias-media-is-greater-than-ever
Peter Hartcher explains the undercurrents and portents of the failed APEC conference in PNG.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/frontline-in-us-china-power-struggle-reaches-australia-s-doorstep-20181119-p50gvz.html
And in further fallout David Wroe reports that China has fired an apparent trade warning shot at Australia by targeting one of its key grain exports in the wake of the weekend’s heated APEC meeting at which tensions between Beijing and Washington deepened, setting the stage for a showdown at the upcoming G20 summit.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australian-agriculture-exports-targeted-as-global-trade-tensions-deepen-20181119-p50h0v.html
Tony Walker writes that as tensions ratchet up between China and the US, Australia risks being caught in the crossfire.
https://theconversation.com/as-tensions-ratchet-up-between-china-and-the-us-australia-risks-being-caught-in-the-crossfire-107178
Meanwhile a Fairfax Media/Nine News investigation has confirmed that China’s Ministry of State Security is responsible for what is known in cyber circles as “Operation Cloud Hopper”, a wave of attacks detected by Australia and its partners in the Five Eyes intelligence sharing alliance.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/china-uses-the-cloud-to-step-up-spying-on-australian-business-20181119-p50gze.html
Phil Coorey reports that the government looked at relocating the Israeli embassy to Jerusalem less than six months ago but rejected it on a number of grounds including security, geopolitical consequences, cost and need.
https://outline.com/9bwfzp
And Michelle Grattan proposes a Jerusalem consulate as a Morrison escape hatch.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-what-about-a-jerusalem-consulate-as-a-morrison-escape-hatch-107214
Morrison continues down the populist road.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/enough-enough-enough-scott-morrison-says-he-will-cut-australia-s-migration-intake-20181119-p50h1e.html
Matthias Cormann has confirmed the government’s $3 billion spend on the Big Four consultants, responding to Questions on Notice by Greens’ leader Richard Di Natale last week. Although the Finance Minister responded accurately to the questions put, he is almost a billion dollars short on the actual, up-to-date figures. Michael West reports on the mystery of exploding government spending.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/discovered-matthias-cormanns-billion-dollar-black-hole/
Simon Benson reports that an alliance of well-known Australians has launched a centre-right political machine in a bid to rival activist group GetUp.
https://outline.com/V4NZMZ
Stephen Bartholomeusz looks at the discussion on incentives that dominated the royal commission hearing yesterday.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-s-one-big-culture-problem-is-loud-and-clear-everyone-is-too-quiet-20181119-p50gyj.html
And Elizabeth Knight tells us how the royal commission lit a fuse under mortgage broker payments.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/royal-commission-lights-a-fuse-under-mortgage-broker-payments-20181119-p50gzf.html
Yesterday Matt Comyn revealed CBA’s profit preservation strategies at the royal commission.
https://outline.com/UPFS8L
Karen Maley describes Comyn’s hopes that the Hayne royal commission might act as the catalyst that finally allows him to achieve his long-held dream of shaking up the remuneration paid to the country’s army of mortgage brokers.
https://outline.com/dZ9GBx
Michael Pelly described Comyn as the “Commbot” as he withstood Ken Hayne’s barbs.
https://outline.com/435y66
And we found out why mortgage brokers are still trousering millions upon millions!
https://outline.com/PG9z8T
Greg Jericho explains how the economy is ticking along in all states, but households are not benefiting.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/nov/20/the-economy-is-ticking-along-in-all-states-but-households-dont-benefit
David Crowe says that parliament will be asked to give the Treasurer the personal power to force the big energy retailers to restructure their companies and sign financial contracts, in a government bid to pressure the industry into cutting prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/draft-energy-law-sets-off-alarm-over-frydenberg-s-power-to-break-up-companies-20181119-p50h03.html
More from Phil Coorey as he tells us that Labor says the certainty created by having an energy policy and the falling cost of renewable energy means emissions can be cut and prices lowered at the same time. Speaking ahead of the launch of Labor’s energy policy on Thursday, shadow climate change and energy minister Mark Butler said asking people to choose between price and emissions reduction was an “utterly false choice”.
https://outline.com/yYWb9W
What a naughty boy! Nissan Motor Co-chairman Carlos Ghosn has been arrested for alleged financial misconduct and will be fired from the board this week.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/11/20/nissan-chairman-carlos-ghosn-arrested-serious-misconduct/
So the bishops want to entrench hypocrisy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/archbishop-of-melbourne-suggests-gay-teachers-more-acceptable-if-they-live-far-away-from-school-20181119-p50gy6.html
Trump’s weekend visit to fire-ravaged California has prompted a withering barrage of ridicule and anger after he suggested the state should copy Finland in raking forest floors to prevent a repeat of wildfires that have killed at least 76.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-ridiculed-over-advice-to-rake-forest-floors-20181119-p50gyd.html
Donald Trump campaign aide George Papadopoulos believes Australia was drawn into a broader Western intelligence conspiracy to discredit the Trump campaign and that diplomats recently implored the US President to suppress FBI reports that could reflect unfavourably on Australian activity in the lead-up to the 2016 US election.
https://www.outline.com/njcwkL
How experts from around the world rate Trump.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/11/19/trump-report-card/
White House officials have reportedly sent a letter to CNN’s Jim Acosta indicating they will suspend his press pass again once the temporary restraining order that required them to restore Acosta’s credentials expires.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/white-house-still-plans-to-ban-cnn-reporter-jim-acosta-20181120-p50h1i.html
Nicole Hemmer writes about the effects of the tech behemoths on the cities where they operate.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/everyone-wanted-amazon-except-the-cities-that-got-it-20181119-p50gxt.html
And right on cue US stocks plummeted yesterday, with the largest technology companies leading the way lower, as investor pessimism about escalating trade tensions between the Trump Administration and China added to concerns about new regulation coming for the industry.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/wall-street-plummets-with-investors-unnerved-by-fresh-us-china-tensions-20181120-p50h1s.html
In the longest slide in history Bitcoin tumbles below $US5,000. It’s getting a bit ugly!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/longest-slide-in-history-bitcoin-tumbles-below-us5-000-20181120-p50h1q.html
Ellie Large defends her Twitter mates following an extraordinary speech from Senator Fierravanti-Wells, in which singled out people who criticise the Coalition on Twitter as “bots” who “run interference for Labor”.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/an-open-letter-to-senator-fierravanti-wells-from-notabot-,12116
Jenna Price gives some sage advice to students to take a gap year before embarking on studying for a university degree.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/i-can-always-tell-the-students-who-ve-had-a-gap-year-20181119-p50gxi.html
The Washington Post says that Facebook’s mark Zuckerberg should declare mission accomplished – and find something else to do for the next few decades.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/mark-zuckerberg-should-at-least-step-down-as-facebook-chairman-20181120-p50h1r.html
In a rather frightening contribution Peter Hannam writes that hazards will multiply and accumulate with climate change. We’ll have to get our rakes out!
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/mind-blowing-hazards-to-multiply-and-accumulate-with-climate-change-20181119-p50gx7.html
Canadian energy storage company Eguana Technologies is coming to Adelaide with plans to create 200 jobs, as it aims to capitalise on the State Government’s home battery scheme.
https://outline.com/8fVHv5
Steve Bishop examines how an internal battle within the British Tories has led to the carnage, chaos and confusion that is Brexit.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/brexit-a-tory-battle-of-carnage,12115
And Peter Wilson explains how UK is stockpiling food and medicine to prepare for a potential ‘hard Brexit’.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/11/20/uk-hard-brexit-preperations/
The “NRA-inspired” gun lobby Shooting Industry Foundation of Australia (SIFA) has no members but its directors include some of Australia’s largest gun dealers. Lecturer in Politics, University of Melbourne’s George Rennie alerts Victorian voters to SIFA’s tactics to weaken Labor’s vote because it favours tighter gun laws.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/victorian-election-ad-bliz-by-nra-inspired-gun-lobby-sifa-to-weaken-gun-laws/
John McDuling writes about ASIC shining the light on the murky world of sports rights as it jumps on Tennis Australia heavies.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/asic-shines-a-light-on-murky-world-of-sports-rights-20181119-p50gzr.html
Amy Remeikis writes that Labor is attempting to use the government’s new minority status against it, by calling on the crossbench to support the latest push for a federal anti-corruption body. But even with the entire crossbench, including incoming Wentworth independent Kerryn Phelps, Labor remains one vote short of being able to force opposition legislation through the House.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/19/labor-threatens-to-use-coalitions-minority-status-against-it-in-federal-icac-push
The Canberra Time editorial tells us why we should be concerned about the Home Affairs contractor purge.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-we-should-be-concerned-about-home-affairs-contractor-purge-20181119-p50gxf.html
The cost to the budget of negative gearing tax breaks for investment properties has jumped by $1.6 billion a year following steep interest rate rises on investor and interest-only loans in response to regulatory curbs on lending that threaten the stability of the financial system.
https://www.outline.com/84Rydg
This week, in Parliament, the Berejiklian government is pushing through another significant ideological shift in child protection. This foster family is most concerned that the voices of foster families and cares are not being heard.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/my-family-is-shocked-by-the-latest-shift-in-child-protection-20181119-p50gwg.html
Concerns over the running of the new Northern Beaches Hospital have been characterised as “hiccups” by NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard at the hospital’s official opening on Monday. Time will tell.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hiccups-concerns-played-down-at-northern-beaches-hospital-opening-20181119-p50gz6.html
Herpes would kill off most of the Murray’s carp but the immune fish left behind would restock the river, research shows.
https://outline.com/xBkEja
The victim of a paedophile pastor has accused the man’s son, Hillsong Church founder Brian Houston, of not doing enough to expose his father’s crimes. Will questions be asked of the PM?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/19/sex-abuse-victim-pursues-hillsongs-brian-houston-over-crimes-of-his-father
Canberra correspondent John Passant analyses Sharri Markson’s recent defence of her Barnaby Joyce “exclusive” and extraordinary attack on Independent Australia.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/marks-off-markson-daily-telegraph-accuses-ia-of-printing-garbage,12111
Rain is set to bring fresh misery to California this week in the wake of the state’s deadliest ever wildfire, with fears of mudslides and flooding causing people to depart an impromptu tent city set up by evacuees.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/19/california-fires-paradise-chico-rain-flooding-mudslides
Joanne McCarthy reports that there is something of a smell coming out of the NSW Department of Planning.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-wouldn-t-play-ball-department-of-planning-manager-sacked-20181119-p50h07.html
Rugby league star Jarryd Hayne has been charged over an alleged sexual assault on the night of the NRL grand final. The charge carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/nsw/2018/11/19/jarryd-hayne-charged-sexual-assault/
And for the “Arsehole of the Week” we have a businessman who fled to Thailand while he was being investigated by ASIC and has been sentenced to at least three years behind bars for fraud, after he told a court he was not “living the high life” or having “one big party” despite spending money on cocaine and lavish meals.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/one-big-party-ex-tech-boss-jailed-for-fraud-after-living-high-life-in-thailand-20181109-p50f2w.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe channels South Pacific.
Peter Broelman with Pamela Anderson.
Paul Zanetti has APEC worked out.
Matt Golding at the royal commission.
David Pope after the royal commission revelations.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/3e9b5d3d27b34ad3609ee90e81c389589a616d06
More in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-20-2018-20181119-h18393.html
Essential Poll: “51% agreed with the statement that neither the Liberal or Labor parties had a long -term plan for the country.”
But we were all assured that if we abandoned our Australian tradition of three year terms for the Yankie four year terms, our politicians would miraculously become assiduous planners.
It was, of course, self-serving nonsense to make politicians lives easier by lowering accountability to the electorate.
William, just to clarify:
There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election.
The way you included that 54.7 -45.3 sounds like the Labor party was in front in 2016, whereas it was, surely, the Federal Government which was in front?
@sonar
Agree. These two polls are arguably closer to reality. I’m sure that the 8-10 point margin, while sounding wonderful for Labor supporters, was recieved with cool heads by Shorten and his team. They can do no more than put their policies out there, take the Coalition to task on its performance and keep their powder dry. The election , when it finally takes place, will pose two interesting questions- how will Independents fare, in both Houses, and how many people will prepoll, having already made up their minds and to hell with the campaign?
Meanwhile, polls will come and go.
swamprat
‘But we were all assured that if we abandoned our Australian tradition of three year terms for the Yankie four year terms, our politicians would miraculously become assiduous planners.’
Er, and how does this figure prove otherwise?
Thank you as always BK
On matters US Presidential hopefuls in 2020, questions abound whether Beto O’Rourke from Texas will run. If he does, he will be a strong contender.
For those who haven’t seen him speak – check out the video half way down this article where he answers a thorny question – is it disrespectful for NFL players to take a knee? I can see why some are calling him the ‘White Obama’ and why he generates excitement.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/19/beto-orourke-2020-democratic-primary-995353
Here’s the next health trend – those who thought they were gluten intolerant (cough) are now being told they’re actually intolerant to fructans
https://www.goodfood.com.au/good-health/feel-better-going-glutenfree-fructans-may-actually-be-the-issue-20181106-h17lmf
Looking forward to the new ‘fructan free’ labels on things which never had fructans in them in the first place.
zoomster
A poll is only reflecting peoples perceptions. It does not “proove” anything.
I would suggest that four year terms giving rise to much better “planning” is absolute nonsense and anyway there is no way of testing it.
FWIW, I believe the negative gearing and franking credits are hurting Labor’s polling.
Boerwar @ #23 Tuesday, November 20th, 2018 – 7:49 am
I agree
As predicted by little old moi:
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/pm-expects-migrant-cap-to-be-cut-by-30000/news-story/7e8cea1c338953b7be035d6799186bd4
swamprat
You’re the one who used the poll as if it proved something. Obviously it doesn’t. You just have a personal opinion. So there was no reason for you to link your comment to the polling.
Boer
That might be so, but it doesn’t explain any recent shift in the polls.
I’m not sure what does, although the Liberals do tend to do better when they’re not actually in parliament making decisions.
Has Fran done her barely concealed squeak of delight this morning yet?
…I would also speculate that there might be a Victorian election effect, where people deciding to shift from Labor at a state level (which early polls had on 54%, which is an unlikely result, so you’d expect shifts to be happening) means they’re automatically moving their vote federally.
Is this poll within the MOE….?
Newspoll will give a better indication on whether the trend is a “narrowing”
Morning all
What happened in past few weeks to give the coalition a boost in the polls?
I can’t make sense of it
Morning all.
I agree with Sprocket re Beto O’Rourke. He has showed he is prepared to work and campaign hard, even in areas that are solid Republican. You can see more of him here. It was an interview from earlier in the year.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFn04RRqazc&list=PLajuJYZKBz2T9tvgC0WfupaE4VcMiqx_n&index=46&t=0s
Vic:
The pity vote?
Boerwar
I just saw your comment on negative gearing etc.
Sounds about right.
Remember voters are aspirational. Even if they are not intending to invest in the foreseeable future,
They want the opportunity to be available to them.
Tax minimisation is a noble goal for the majority.
Fess
See my comment above.
I think boerwar is on the money
On predictions of issues we will face due to climate change according to one published paper this week:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/climate/climate-disasters.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
I wonder if concern over falling house prices is starting to influence peoples votes, there has been increased media coverage of it in last few weeks. Only thing i can think of…
…Or maybe there’s just a bit of random statistical variation happening
Wasn’t ‘The Fair Go’ meant to be the conservative version of Get Up? Barely lasted beyond the launch.
Huge difference between a genuinely grassroots driven organisation and a manufactured one.
z, vic
The Australian has had an unrelieved series of attacks on negative gearing. Some of them verge on the scurrilous – such a the articles on an industry report that provided findings based on the assumption that there was no grandfathering.
In addition, there is a lot of social media work going on in relation to franking credits.
I assume, without really knowing, that this sort of stuff is more effective in changing votes than Morrison’s stoogin around.
bug1
That had occurred to me as well. If people are already suffering as a result of falling house prices they might be more fearful of the negative gearing reform.
Boerwar
House prices have dipped quite a bit of late.
If it is perceived that Labor policy will further erode their asset value, I can see why this scaremongering is working
Bit by bit the president and the WH are debasing the integrity of institutions that can hold him and his cronies to account.
:large
Boer
And they’ve had an unrelieved series of attacks on neg gearing for yonks. Doesn’t explain moves in the last fortnight.
Another possibility – and I don’t know more than anyone else – is that Morrison is being perceived as standing up to Indonesia.
Never mind Essential, this is what will give some PBers apoplexy this morning.
https://thewest.com.au/sport/cricket/sheffield-shield-shaun-marsh-scores-a-century-against-south-australia-in-face-of-criticism-ng-b881025336z
https://us.wakeupyourmind.net/life/elderly-woman-sends-brilliant-letter-to-bank-after-they-bounced-her-check/
Things are tightening as expected, but Labor still wins easily at the moment. Morrison needs to attack the key Labor’s liabilities for the next 6 months to make things any more interesting in the lead-up to the May 2019 election.
Essential Poll: “51% agreed with the statement that neither the Liberal or Labor parties had a long -term plan for the country.”
It’s all the fault of the press for asking shallow idiotic questions because they can’t be bothered to do the research
Oh and of the stupidity idiotic punters that would rather watch the Block & Bachelor even if the press covered the real issues in depth.
Confessions/Sprocket
Did you see O’Jeda also intends to run in 2020?
People still vote with stupid.
I have no sympathy with selfish bastards.