The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.
Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.
The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
This IPSOS’s focus on ‘Muslim immigration = bad’ sounds like a racist dog-whistle to me. What about banning Brits, after all they are the ones most likely to commit crimes.
Aunt Mavis
Guys mob are really not doing themselves any favours to winning the election.
No wonder Labor are so confident they are more worried about fighting the Greens than the Liberals in the state election.
Trump’s unhinging becomes even more unhinged!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-suggests-venerated-navy-seal-commander-should-have-found-bin-laden-faster/2018/11/18/363aff2a-eb53-11e8-9236-bb94154151d2_story.html?utm_term=.44e8f377e11e
@theConverstation tweets
Bright idea. Confiscate their super – if it works for sports stars, it could work for bankers: https://theconversation.com/confiscate-their-super-if-it-works-for-sports-stars-it-could-work-for-bankers-105833 @llenten #BankingRoyalCommission #ausecon #auspol
Meanwhile somewhere in New England
Saw the following this morning:
‘I first heard of the place in, I think, 1951or 1954 at an election meeting in West Geelong town hall addressed by Robert Menzies. Menzies was still complaining that the Labor government had refused to accept a fully developed base there from the US at the end of WW2.’
Are we now in an undeclared or undescribed or side-lettered defence alliance with PNG?
AL
Here in Forest Hill both the Labor and Liberal candidates have preferenced an independent #2 above the Greens. As part of his ‘platform’ this independent supports abolishing the Safe Schools program. The independent has preferenced Lab over Lib. Apparently, he lives in Frankston, is involved in building and nominated 30 minutes before the close of nominations.
Though Lib Lab preferences will not be distributed it sends a message who Labor regards as ‘the enemy’.
Both Lab & Lib candidates also ran with the excuse that they had no say in the htv; it was down to HO.
As the Lib incumbent holds the seat on a margin of 4.8%, his votes will be crucial in deciding the outcome when preferences are distributed.
This is a factual, not emotional, assessment.
https://theconversation.com/logging-must-stop-in-melbournes-biggest-water-supply-catchment-106922?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
Peg
The Greens seem to think that it is rational for the Greens to have an open season on Labor for three years and then come crawling back for political hugs and kisses during an election campaign.
BTW, when are you lot going to clean yourselves up?
You’re filthy.
Pegasus
“Though Lib Lab preferences will not be distributed it sends a message who Labor regards as ‘the enemy’.”
Do you think it might result in the Green party reflecting on their behavior?
Same same to you.
Peg
Maybe the Greens should focus on a Safe Greens Program to protect young Greens workers from their so-called elders and betters?
@strom_m tweets
For everyone just discovering the limits of #neoliberalism, I give you @PaulWellerHQ in 1985.
“Come take a walk upon these hills
And see how monetarism kills
Whole communities, even families
There’s nothing left, so they’ve all gone away”.
Went to bed last night before seeing Nath’s reply … citing a personal tie fetish …
Nice attempt at deflection, Nath, but no points there.
You might think conflating two completely separate spheres of responsibility is ‘good media’ just like the Telegraph does, but few here will not see through it.
BTW – have you contacted Lucy and asked if you can see Mal’s tie collection? The family’s personal stylist might be able to give you some tips on how to knot a tie without choking 😆
B
I feel your love.
In Forest Hill it was the Labor candidate who initiated a meeting with the Greens candidate to exhort him to help him.
There was some speculation that the next election will be fought over power prices, not emissions.
This is incorrect.
Similarly to some vested interests trying to fight the election on negative gearing.
They can try. But they will fail.
Same as for debt and deficit, or Unions BOO, or Shorten’s popularity. All of these are mere sideshows.
The next election will be fought on competence and stability. Or at least it would be fought on that if the side playing defence had even a skerrick of either. Unless Labor implodes the next election has already been fought and lost. This mob of dickheads only survived last time because enough fools still bought the myth that Trumble could provide competence and stability, but only just barely enough for them to scrape home. Those dopes won’t be fooled again. Especially when FauxMo is doing such a bang up job of reminding them how foolish they were.
So of course the Fairfax hacks can’t even drag themselves to try and pretend that the Coalition is anywhere near as competitive as this poll is indicating. This mob are too much of an embarrassment even for them to further embarrass themselves for.
Just 10,000 votes in it in Florida Senate race in the end.
Pegasus @ #164 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 9:09 am
And, true to form, The smarmy Green knocked him back.
Boerwar says:
Monday, November 19, 2018 at 8:56 am
Saw the following this morning:
‘I first heard of the place in, I think, 1951or 1954 at an election meeting in West Geelong town hall addressed by Robert Menzies. Menzies was still complaining that the Labor government had refused to accept a fully developed base there from the US at the end of WW2.’
Are we now in an undeclared or undescribed or side-lettered defence alliance with PNG?
It’s a neo-colonial extension of US-Australian territory for military purposes, though not for others.
I suppose we are going to see a veritable flood of Greens’ sanctimony, bombast and hypocrisy here for the next week. Even though there is a dedicated Victorian election thread.
‘fess,
Next election, with the new measures in Florida allowing more people to vote, that 10000 vote difference may be eradicated. 🙂
I think this is a train wreck campaign debate we are seeing on News 24 with Jon Faine between AG and Shadow on News 24 for the Liberals
Cat
The sanctimony line is BS from Labor. Its up there with the Greens same same slogans.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/19/labor-to-face-pressure-on-environment-policies-after-embarrassing-stuff-up
The faux balance bullshit language of ’embarrassing stuff up’ disgracefully used here tells you exactly how far out of the race the government is.
When I see a headline saying Labor has made and embarrassing stuff up on environment policy I naturally assumed they must have got their sums horribly wrong, or decided to pay for a coal plant, or just declared carbon dioxide benign plant food.
That would be a stuff up.
But no. It’s just some eye glazing argy bargy over if some minor matter was previously approved at some internal forum such that it will be on the agenda at another internal forum.
Of course our brave media must find something, anything, to bash Labor for (cause balance), but this is the best they can come up with.
Morrison and Frydenberg in their limitless idiocy are STILL doubling down on the Jerusalem Brainfart, but some minor disagreement on the minutes of an internal policy discussion in Labor is an embarrassing stuff up.
Right there is all you need to know. Labor actually has a policy development process. The Coalition have brainfarts. They’re an ex government.
@ALeighMP tweets
Today, I’ll be announcing Labor’s plan to provide free tax help for low-income Australians https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-19/vulnerable-taxpayers-would-get-free-legal-advice-under-labor/10505940 #inequality #auspol
C@t:
Plus the demographics in Florida are changing.
guytaur,
You love making gross generalisations. Maybe you should be less one-eyed and acknowledge that sometimes, even if only rarely, the Murdoch media makes the correct call. It’s not always a case of, because it’s in the Murdoch media, ipso facto it must be wrong.
Confessions @ #175 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 9:26 am
Well, in the past they’ve tried to wangle out of that by Voter Suppression but people are becoming wise to that now and I don’t think that in the future the Repugs are going to be able to get away with it so blatantly.
Cat
Maybe just sometimes you can admit that the Murdoch media should be ignored totally.
You know they will always put it in the worst possible way to attack any progressive idea no matter from which party.
Thats all I was saying. It was the only point Pegasus was making in pointing out that attack on Labor by the same media outlet.
That was it.
Remembering this is a paper that openly campaigns for the LNP as stated by their editor. Crikey did a whole series of articles on the same.
Ratsak
Here is the equivalence for Frydenberg:
1 He gutted marine parks
2 He gutted the EPBC Act
3 He delivered no energy policy
4. He delivered no emissions policy
5. He increased sovereign risk in the energy investment space
6. He delivered a half dead Reef
7. He increased list of vulnerable and endangered species. He achieved the world’s first global warming extinction.
8. He increased emissions in transport space
9. He delivered record hot temperatures
10. He delivered record low rainfall
11. He turned tens of thousands of farmers into Global Warming beggars.
12. He enabled Kosciusko National Park to be turned into a horse paddock.
Goodness me.This from the Rupertarium leapt out. It’s almost as if a Labor win is a given 😆
.
.
“Senate chaos to thwart Labor
Simon Benson
Bill Shorten may not be able to form a majority bloc with the Greens in the Senate to pass legislation.”
p
Nah.
Standard FUD meme of Labor=Chaos.
guytaur,
Thanks for you reply to my question re Jerusalem move.
Cheers
You don’t have to sell me on the idea Josh is as useless as tits on a bill. Even for a Liberal his utter uselessness is astonishing.
I used to go on about how ridiculous it was that Trumble was considered leadership material in complete denial of the utter absence of evidence of public policy success.
Well Frydenberg is an even greater example. At least Trumble had the incandescent bulb ban as a policy win he could point to. Josh has absolutely nothing in his column. He’s leadership material because we’re told he’s leadership material.
Abbott drunk and asleep in his office during a vote is a more substantial figure than Frydenberg could dream of being.
@GreenJ tweets
An element in this of the world of orthodox mid-life politics grappling with the young people and their internets. https://twitter.com/JoshButler/status/1064286013617397760
@joshbutler tweets
I’m really interested to see what regular voters think of posts like these – considering several of the screenshotted ‘vile’ tweets are clearly stupid ironic shitposts, and the one about porn is commenting directly on a Q&A special about porn https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/state-election/greens-mps-staffer-offers-to-quit-over-vile-tweets/news-story/e09e0f4023aaa810ca5f0acb7af3ffb9
Here’s one leg of the Coalition’s election bullshittery. Brought to you by that honest chap Aussie John. It’s going to be worse than a zombie apocalypse…………..apparently
.
.
Labor’s property policy a ‘nuclear bomb’, says Aussie John
DIRE WARNING Federal Labor’s negative gearing reforms would be a “nuclear bomb” for the Australian property market which could tip Australia into recession, Aussie Home Loans founder John Symond says.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/labors-negative-gearing-policy-a-nuclear-bomb-says-aussie-john-symond/news-story/acef8cbffd8a69588f0c81e4e746c45d
C@t:
Yep, things are slowly changing.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/a-cancer-on-democracy-the-battle-to-end-gerrymandering-in-america-20181116-p50gdk.html
From the Wronski site, October 18th…
“Urban will be taking a break to undergo coronary bypass surgery. He looks forward to returning to writing as soon as possible.”
From The West Australian
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/five-seats-at-risk-as-wa-female-voters-desert-liberals-ng-b881024623z
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/five-seats-at-risk-as-wa-female-voters-desert-liberals-ng-b881024623z
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/let-s-say-yes-to-negative-gearing-on-this-one-condition-20181116-p50ghh.html
Here’s a not bad idea. 🙂
ratsak (AnonBlock)
Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 9:25 am
Comment #173
[Morrison and Frydenberg in their limitless idiocy are STILL doubling down on the Jerusalem Brainfart, but some minor disagreement on the minutes of an internal policy discussion in Labor is an embarrassing stuff up.]
I wonder would the following apply to Messrs. Morrison and Frydenberg.
An interesting option for Theresa May if it’s true that the DUP has withdrawn “confidence and supply”.
She could make an offer to the SNP to apply the same Northern Ireland EU market measures to Scotland and return powers to Holyrood recently removed by Westminster.
This would give both Scotland and England what they voted for in the EU referendum. 🙂
From that WA poll article. There has been little comment so far on the Sophomore Effect.
If it is anything what Anne Aly is getting…
“The poll is in line with internal polling The West Australian understands has been recently conducted by the Labor Party in its marginal electorate of Cowan, held by Anne Aly.
Dr Aly took the seat at the 2016 election with a 5.2 per cent swing, giving her a margin of 0.7 per cent.
Some within the Liberal Party believe the Government should target Cowan to offset likely losses in other parts of the country.
But the ALP polling this month suggests Dr Aly has increased her margin by five percentage points.
The Liberal Party’s primary vote in Cowan is understood to have plummeted by 15 percentage points.
swamprat
Imagine the feverish phone calls going 24/7!
#TheStoneofSconeonBludger
swamprat @ #192 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 6:18 am
Which would then create a hard border between Scotland and England, which is exactly what Ireland is trying to avoid.
BiGD
‘Which would then create a hard border between Scotland and England, which is exactly what Ireland is trying to avoid.’
The problem would be with all the Sassenachs on the wrong side of the border.
Barney in GD
Indeed, but the SNP would be quite relaxed and the DUP and theor Orange folk would go ballistic 🙂
Barney,
you mean the DUP in Northern Ireland is trying to avoid? Ireland would be ok with a hard border at Hadrians Wall.
That WA poll is pretty damning of the Liberal Party.
It is apparent that women have given up on the Libs and the allegedly poor treatment of Julie Bishop by the “Pricktocracy”that rules in the Libs is a major turnoff to women generally. Primary votes in the low 30s and sinking is a major existential threat to the Libs.
This is shaping up as one of the major issues for the next election.
Boerwar,
The Sassenachs voted Brexit, the Albanachs voted remain so they both sort of get what they voted for.