Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from the latest Ipsos poll, although it adds to a picture of deteriorating personal approval for Scott Morrison.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.

Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.

The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

672 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Observer
    August 30th All Ords 6460. Today 5779. A loss of 681 points. 11.2% since in that period,and the MSM/ Lib cheer squad still saying how great the economy is.

  2. How many voters do PBers think give a rat’s about where Australia’s embassy is? For the politically engaged it is, of course, a genuine issue which the govt has completely buggered up in its usual style.

    But for people who aren’t politically engaged? It would be about a 12th order issue at best. The fact the govt has got itself into a mess and is constantly talking about a situation of its own making concerning an issue which the vast majority of people don’t give a tinker’s about will only make them less popular. it looks like navel gazing again.

  3. BW,

    It’s longer than that since a severe recession was had, which I put at 1996. So there are plenty of 40 year-olds who were sheltered from the last one.

    I got to see what its like when I was in the UK circa 2007.

  4. Good afternoon all,

    Shorten really does know how to push the right buttons to get the government navel gazing internally.

    Jerusalem move, climate action, SSM, Ruddock report etc etc etc.

    I would also suggest dipping his toe into the ICAC issue today would , in part at least, be based on internal disquiet within the government that Shorten hopes to bring to the surface.

    Shorten is good.

    Cheers.

  5. frednk says: Monday, November 19, 2018 at 2:20 pm

    Trump might want to be a little tyrant, but it isn’t going to work without the backing of the military.
    Remember his first little effort; I’m going to cut everything but the military; he knew it but he blew it.

    *************************************************************

    While Trump feasts on Thanksgiving, troops on the border eat rations and await Pancho Villa

    President Trump is reportedly planning to celebrate Thanksgiving once again at his members-only Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida, feasting on (if previous menus repeat) a 24-dish extravaganza of turkey, stuffing, mashed potatoes, marshmallow sweet potatoes, red snapper, leg of lamb, grilled diver scallops, stone crab, ahi tuna martinis, Maine lobster bisque, short ribs, beef tenderloin and seven desserts.

    It will likely all be topped off by what the president calls “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake” — available exclusively to members ($200,000 initiation fee) and guests.

    Things will be rather less sumptuous along the southern border, to which Trump, just before the midterm elections, ordered some 5,600 troops, with another 1,400 on the way, to contain the “national emergency” posed by the approaching caravan of Central American families seeking asylum.

    Since the election, Trump has forgotten about the mortal peril posed by the caravan “invasion” — he has mentioned the “caravan” only once, and only when asked — but the troops he ordered to act in this political advertisement can’t forget. They will remain on the border through Thanksgiving, the New York Times reported, eating Combat-MRE rations, living in tents without electricity, receiving neither combat pay nor hostile-fire pay.

    Their only task is to spend a few days stringing barbed wire. After this, their mission, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said, “is somewhat to be determined.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/while-trump-feasts-on-thanksgiving-troops-on-the-border-eat-rations-and-await-pancho-villa/2018/11/16/4d60d4c8-e9b8-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.2e1e27f4ca6d

  6. Cud Chewer @ #295 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 8:48 am

    Ok so let me get this straight….

    If I am correct, the UK and the Republic of Ireland are sovereign nations.
    Both are in the EU customs union but neither are in the Schengen area.

    So presently when you arrive from Europe to either the UK or the Republic of Ireland you need to clear immigration.

    In the event of Brexit, the UK leaves the customs union. The Republic of Ireland remains in the customs union.

    Now I get this correctly, crossing the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland would then involve a customs check (goods) but not immigration – since you have to clear immigration on arrival in the Republic of Ireland.

    Am I correct?

    My understanding is that the border in regards to customs and immigration between the UK and Ireland would be the Irish Sea.

    Their would be no controls between the Republic and Northern Ireland.

  7. i don’t think murdoch media have given up on Guy quite yet – they are trying to make a big deal out of the fact that the mentally ill Bourke St ‘jihadist’ was out on bail (it was over traffic offences so WTF would he not be out on bail?) and that Andrews knew this but did not mention it at press conferences. honestly! FFFS!!

  8. Are we hearing the first mutinous rumbles from the US military that they are disquietened and concerned by Trump’s lunacy?

    Are the current Heads sending a subtle message to him, under the cover of retired senior military, that if he doesn’t pull his head in, they may be forced to do it for him?

  9. “recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time.”…

    Can you imagine the Coalition being happy with such a result?…. When you are happy with a 48% 2PP you know that it’s well and truly over for you….

  10. “https://www.2gb.com/legend-in-his-own-lunch-time-treasurer-rips-into-cabinet-colleague/

    Yeah these fuckwits are only 52-48 behind and a chance at the next election!”

    That is fucking hilarious. Even the slightly less crazy ‘moderates’ are fractious and fighting. They must all be so stressed to realise Morrison’s a dud and many years of shadow ministry in a party at war with itself awaits. This is the Howard legacy for the LNP – he opened to door to the loons and took the party tea party right. abbott is his love child.

  11. “Shorten is good.”….

    Indeed, and the message we are getting from the majority of voters is that: We don’t need stars and great entertainers at the helm of Government (State or Federal). We need people who work hard, who are humble enough to accept and correct their mistakes, and who have their priorities right (Good economy, Social justice, Environmental sustainability).

    That’s why there is nothing that Murdoch can do to stop the historical defeat of the Liberals Federally and in Victoria on Saturday.

  12. Banking Royal Commission.. they are really getting to the root of the problem.. inherent conflict of interest, the consumer is the mushroom in all of this, the bankers, mortgage brokers & share holders are all in the trough together.

    This Royal Commission is a idealistic Socialist Organisation. They will produce a great report igniored by all.

  13. Oh dear it just hit the fan.. CBA admit trail commissions paid to mortgage brokers is not related to non existent services provided.

    Consumer ripped off again.
    Bank shares set to plummet ….

  14. It really is amusing that something that I pointed out 18 months is still causing the Brits conceptual difficulties.
    After all, four centuries of fucking over the Irish each and every time is a difficult habit to break.
    The situation is that the balance of control over their mutual destinies has shifted from the English to the Irish.
    The English no longer control the Republic of Ireland.
    The Republic of Ireland has a veto on any Brexit deal.
    The 27 states of the EU are ALL backing the Republic of Ireland on no hard border.

    There are only two real final gates here: a hard Brexit, which would bring with it a hard Irish border: or stay in the EU.
    Anything else is an agreement to try and muddle through.
    This is where May has taken the UK now.
    The question is whether she can get a majority in the Parliament to enter the Muddle Through Gate.

  15. So, the woman where the (former?) Police employee now Liberal candidate frequents is under instruction not to run or be engaged in the business due to her criminal history.

    And Guy and his candidate stop there (no doubt as pre arranged) for her to say she has to sell 700 extra cups of coffee a month to meet higher energy prices (no doubt as rehearsed for media consumption)

    So, is she in breach of the Order?

    An Order no doubt monitored by VPol and, specifically, the Liberal Candidate in his position with VPol.

    And, should she be in jail for breaching the Order (and ahead of any Court Case?)

    Plus, are the increases in utility costs restricted to Victoria?

    Noting the Federal Government is threatening suppliers to mitigate against future cost increases and has a Minister for lowering power prices.

    Why, if it is just a Victorian issue?

  16. Sceptic

    Do not overlook appointments, which is the greatest gravy train of fees and charges to legal and accounting practices.

  17. Is there a rort or consumer rip-off that the Banks et al associated with them, HAVEN’T thought of yet!?!

    It’s just absolutely scandalous, as you say, Sceptic, how the upper echelons of the Banks, Mortgage and Finance Brokers and Shareholders, have all been in on taking a piece of the pie and making the customers pay for it.

    I blame Howard and Costello for creating the environment in which these sharp practices were allowed to flourish.

  18. No doubt most people have no idea that Tel Aviv is even a place. That the government is obsessing and infighting over something that has zero benefit to Australia is just another nail in their coffin.

    The damn coffin is pretty much all nails and no timber now.

  19. Mavis Smith says: Monday, November 19, 2018 at 3:12 pm

    Talking of inveterate lying:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQruDaf7bKs

    *******************************************************************

    Checking in with the Washington Post’s running score :

    The Fact Checker’s ongoing database of the false or misleading claims made by President Trump since assuming office.

    In 649 days, President Trump has made 6,420 false or misleading claims

    Updated Oct. 30, 2018

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/trump-claims-database/?utm_term=.988702aa55f0

  20. Northern Ireland is nearly half Irish Nationalist already. Sein Fein already has all the border constituencies and one in Belfast.

  21. Sceptic, ‘Oh dear it just hit the fan.. CBA admit trail commissions paid to mortgage brokers is not related to non existent services.’

    I am confused. So a trailing commission is related to an existing service?

    Or, there is no existing service (which I suspect is the case) but a trailing commission is still paid?

  22. Just heard someone from Ipsos being interviewed by a psephless fool from the ABC.
    The Ipsos person had the sense to urge caution and to wait for some more polls.

  23. Barney in DG

    No, you are incorrect.

    A hard border in the Irish Sea, i.e. NI remaining in the EU customs etc would be acceptable to Ireland and Europe but is not acceptable to the UK and the DUP especially.

    The DUP will not accept any “special” treatment of NI as they feel insecure. They would rather sink with the UK than rise with Europe (Ireland).

    Europe will not accept a hard border between Ireland and NI.

    But the DUP is only one party in NI. The more moderate unionists have been marginalised.

  24. Fran’s excitement at the Ipsos 6 point turn-a-round a little muted this morning..but I still detected a little squeak of delight……

    Fran Kelly “was involved in the feminist movement and marched in anti-nuclear, environmental and Aboriginal rights rallies in her youth”, but says she is not an activist now, as “once you become a journalist you can’t be an activist”. The present government has gutted the organisation to which she has devoted most of her professional life, and its efforts at interfering with its political coverage have been central to perhaps the greatest organisational crisis it has ever faced. Yet there are people out there who are that stupid that they’re happy to type up this sort of thing and have it published in a place where many people will read it, apparently without a hint of embarrassment. If not for my experience as publisher of this site, I literally would not have believed that this could be true.

  25. I don’t have the link but I did see a reference to polling of the English. The majority of them are ready to shed NI and Scotland in order to Brexit.

  26. Apart from what I have read about Fran Kelly and heard on RN myself, I don’t know where Fran’s political allegiances lie. However, it does seem that, to many other than myself, she has acquired traits which indicate to these others, that she is more friendly to the LNP side of politics in some of her offerings.
    The problem for anyone who fronts in the media is that judgements will be made about them which can be quite erroneous – regardless. For instance, I believe that Richo and Mark Latham were once Labor politicians. Meanwhile I am lead to believe that John Hewson once aspired to become a Liberal PM.

  27. swamprat @3.27
    I first assumed that that map was one of those maps of europe seen from the north pole or something like that…
    No matter how hard I tried, I could not make it work.

  28. Tricot
    …she has acquired traits which indicate to these others, that she is more friendly to the LNP side of politics in some of her offerings.
    ______________________________________
    That’s bullshit, the ALP nutters on here who believe that the ABC is somehow pro-coalition are the ones that target her. It’s same paranoid shit that Zoidlord spouts when he says that the Mob and the AFP are colluding with the Liberal party.

  29. Some more in the occasional series:


    49. Birch’s My Health/Serco Apparent Conflict of Interest Cockup.
    50. Mahathir Warns Morrison He is Contributing to Terrorism Cockup.
    51. Frydenberg/Pyne Embassy Shift Spat Cockup.
    52. Abbott Joining Embassy Shift Spat Cockup.
    53. Treasurer v Prime Minister of Malaysia Embassy Shift Spat Cockup.
    54. Morrison Declaration that US v China Will Soon be Over Cockup.

  30. I’m finding it difficult to believe that the Coalition are still going with the Embassy / Jerusalem thing as a live issue?? Seems to me though that its really just the latest vehicle for Abbott to treat his relevance deprivation syndrome and desire to wreck within the Liberal party.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-rejects-warnings-urges-scott-morrison-to-move-israel-embassy-20181118-p50gtq.html

    The lib leadership must be hoping that he and the RWFW’s will just STFU for a bit to give them some clear air to do an end of year financial statement as lead up to the next election. A fist full of dollars MYEFO is probably their only hope at the moment of clawing back any kind of reasonable standing in the polls.

  31. It’s the map of NI constituencies in Westminster but is slightly inaccurate.
    The Green seats are Sinn Fein and the Red DUP except North Down which is held by Sylvia Hermon as an independent (she used to be UUP but left when they changed their name back to Conservative and Unionist for the 2015 election.

    The three moderate parties UUP, Alliance and SDLP have no representation in Westminster

  32. ‘Oakeshott Country says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 4:15 pm

    Sorry just noted North Down is grey’

    I had wondered about that grey bit.

  33. Speaking of radio presenters. Life is just a little sadder without the voice of Tony Delroy on LateNight. What a legend, and parked in the bosses carpark:

    In a minor 2010 incident, Delroy received an official reprimand after he used abusive language at a security guard who asked Delroy to remove his car from the space reserved for Maurice Newman, the chairman of the ABC.

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