First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.
There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.
In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.
As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.
Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.
Full results featuring state breakdowns:
AS the banking RC showed with Superannuation, there are some industries that the for profit sector should be excluded from. Aged care is another such industry. I have no doubt that the aged care RC will find that the major problems are in the for profit sector of the industry.
WWP
‘Mate if you can’t see the evidence of 40 years of trickle down economics, …’
Do stop with your ideological histrionics and blustering.
Your proposition is that workers are worse off now than they were 40 years ago.
You stated you had evidence.
Go ahead.
Provide some evidence of real wages 40 years ago compared to now.
PS
I agree.
“No it didn’t. Trump lost the popular vote by a healthy margin.”
Yeah if only the popular vote was in anyway important President Clinton would be doing nicely now.
These votes aren’t because people are really really happy with everything. As the brilliant results and the dems dance to the left it is pretty clear a large portion of the Clinton vote was not happy with the way things are either, they just saw a different solution.
goodmorning
Dan Gulberry @ #1353 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 10:46 am
If I recall correctly Jacinda Adern renegotiated over the ISDS provisions in particular – i.e they were removed from the previous agreements. A good outcome IMHO.
“Provide some evidence of real wages 40 years ago compared to now.’
I don’t have time for idiotic faith based rubbish like this go and talk to rex, you have a lot in common. Trust me.
good afternoon, evening, wherever you are.
WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:38 pm
“You did say that you had evidence. I take it from your hasty retreat to the lowest form of wit that you do not have the evidence.”
Mate if you can’t see the evidence of 40 years of trickle down economics…..
The correct term is siphon-off economics.
If you get caught drink driving, tell the press you are a Liberal voter if you want to avoid publicity!
WeWantPaul @ #1425 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 12:44 pm
I don’t think it’s valid to dismiss the popular vote in one paragraph, and then use the next paragraph to suggest that the result shows a lot of people thought Trump was the answer to their problem(s).
“One area where I wasn’t was his answers regarding the TPP. ”
Was interesting to see that he is completely cool with looking at what may be useful ideas from others.
Think part of that was making a point about the Muppets and their position that “good idea but the ALP has fwarked it up for us because THEY adopted it first!!”
Boerwar
The US since the blessing of Reaganomics was given to them has seen teh workers’ wages in real terms stagnate.
https://www.epi.org/publication/stagnant-wages-in-2014/
Boerwar @ #1439 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 10:32 am
Do you?
While you ponder that, I’ll remind everyone that “average” incomes mean absolutely fvck all, just as they do here when Morrison claims that negative gearing is mainly done by people on “average” incomes.
The real figure that should be taken into account is the mean income duly adjusted for inflation. When these figures are used I’ll bet that “real” incomes for actual workers (as opposed to the banksters you support) would barely have moved, and may in fact have gone backwards. Just as they have in America. Just as they’re doing here.
Hi Puff. 🙂
a r says: Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:48 pm
WeWantPaul @ #1425 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 12:44 pm
Yeah if only the popular vote was in anyway important President Clinton would be doing nicely now.
These votes aren’t because people are really really happy with everything. As the brilliant results and the dems dance to the left it is pretty clear a large portion of the Clinton vote was not happy with the way things are either, they just saw a different solution.
I don’t think it’s valid to dismiss the popular vote in one paragraph, and then use the next paragraph to suggest that the result shows a lot of people thought Trump was the answer to their problem(s).
******************************************************
Good article in the Washington Post :
A fresh look back at 2016 finds America with an identity crisis
Two years after the 2016 election, there has been no single answer to the question: What happened? In an outcome that saw the popular vote and the electoral college diverge, theories abound, opinions are many and consensus fleeting. Now, a trio of political scientists have come forth with their answer as to why Donald Trump prevailed over Hillary Clinton, summed up in the title of their forthcoming book: “Identity Crisis.”
Their conclusion is straightforward. Issues of identity — race, religion, gender and ethnicity — and not economics were the driving forces that determined how people voted, particularly white voters.
In an election decided by fewer than 80,000 votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, it’s been common for people to say that anything or everything could have made the difference. The three political scientists beg to differ: “ ‘Everything’ did not ‘matter’ equally,” they argue.
MORE : https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-fresh-look-back-at-2016-finds-america-with-an-identity-crisis/2018/09/15/0ac62364-b8f0-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html
I bet Labor already has the answers.
‘WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:45 pm
“Provide some evidence of real wages 40 years ago compared to now.’
I don’t have time for idiotic faith based rubbish like this go and talk to rex, you have a lot in common. Trust me.’
Uh huh.
You argued that European workers were worse off now than they were 40 years ago.
You stated that you had evidence.
When I asked for your evidence you started shouting.
When I asked for it again you started becoming personally abusive.
I am beginning to think that you actually know that workers in the EU are better off in real terms than they were 40 years ago.
“I don’t think it’s valid to dismiss the popular vote in one paragraph, and then use the next paragraph to suggest that the result shows a lot of people thought Trump was the answer to their problem(s).”
Um firstly I didn’t dismiss the popular vote, I simply noted the fact that the President is selected by the electoral college which is indirectly based on the popular vote. The 3 mill was a nice little margin, but still there were nearly 63 million people that voted for Trump as the best of the 4 or 5 offered solutions.
You could in fact make the opposite case to the one I put by noting how many people didn’t vote at all. I don’t know if there was a big not vote at all in Brexit. But I don’t think the ‘people are doing really well and are content and in in rapture over the growth in average weekly wages over the last 40 years’ case has much to commend it.
‘lizzie says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:56 pm
Stephen KoukoulasVerified account @TheKouk · 6m6 minutes ago
No more Royal Commissions on basic policy issues please:
Ministers – just do your job. Don’t waste time and money finding out what a TV program can find with a hand full of reporters
I bet Labor already has the answers.’
I thought that Mr Shorten had some very sensible reform policies to hand when pressed by Mr Cassidy this morning.
booleanbach @ #1456 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 10:45 am
That’s what I said. Ardern re-negotiated the terms before it was signed. But only for New Zealand. Those terms still apply to the deal Australia will now sign.
Once enacted, they cannot be renegotiated, changed, modified or deleted in any way shape or form. This is why unions are less than happy with Labor’s decision to support the deal as it is.
Boerwar, I think it is best if you have the arguments were you determine all the parameters as you go along and declare yourself the winner with someone else.
But because I don’t really care and you do let me concede to you and note that with a few exclusions for some quite ‘left’ countries and one particular country with oil (and they are almost certainly better off across almost all imaginable measures) workers across Europe are clearly much better off if you look a single selected economic measure and ignore all the rest of reality. Well done, great discussion. Thanks. Enjoy your sunday I have a chainsaw to warmup.
A chainsaw?
Come on, Boerwar wasn’t THAT belligerent!
DG
I am certain that your point is right. There have been and continue to be large swings and roundabouts.
We were in the discussion talking Europe-wide as in the EU.
It is a dead set cert that real incomes of most workers in all the former Soviet Block countries have improved out of sight over the past 40 years, for example. That probably gets you somewhere between 50 and 100 million workers who are better off in real terms.
Other than that, workers in different countries are going to find their real wage growth (or decline) various by country. ‘Twas ever thus.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264605/development-of-real-wages-in-eu-countries/
‘WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 1:02 pm
Boerwar, I think it is best if you have the arguments were you determine all the parameters as you go along and declare yourself the winner with someone else. ‘
You could always just provide your evidence.
It is an important question. I don’t have the answer. You say you do. Please enlighten us all.
Boerwar @ #1469 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 10:57 am
He did no such thing. He argued against your claim that BRITISH workers were better off. You’ve now moved the goalposts to claim your argunent was that European workers are better off. When “European workers” also includes those from the former Iron Curtain countries, then obviously “European” workers are better off.
Now back to your original claim (before you moved the goalposts). Produce your evidence that shows that British workers have a higher median wage (adjusted for inflation) than they did 40 years ago.
You’re the one that made that claim. The onus is on you to produce evidence to support that claim.
FS
Please do not give WWP ideas. He is in a passion about something.
Worth a giggle. 😆
However, if he continues to ask for it …
DG
I don’t actually know how real incomes have changed in the UK over the past 40 years, if at all.
Which is why I was interested in WWP’s evidence.
There is plenty of analyses for the past decade and it shows clearly that real wages have fallen in Britain. This is a global phenomenum in advanced economies. There is much speculation about the drivers of this.
That gets us to the first decade.
What happened to real wages in the previous three decades?
What happens to the total figure when all four decades are taken into account.
I don’t know.
I would guess that real incomes have gone up over the past four decades in the UK.
But that would be a guess.
Boerwar
I was in the UK for a month and found their wages are about 25% behind ours with a similar cost of living.
With Karen Phelps now in the race, there might be an outside chance of her winning Wentworth.
Thatcher was determined from 1979 to demolish the whole union movement in the UK which must have had a massive effect on wages in the subsequent years.
“With Karen Phelps now in the race, there might be an outside chance of her winning Wentworth.”
Her chances definitely improved somewhat when she decided to enter the race
The average wage in the UK is approx A$19 an hour which is not much above the Oz minimum wage.
Every seat lost at the next election by the Libs should be classified as winnable next time around and the Libs should only endorse women for those seats. Warn all present males sitting in parliament that if they lose they are gone for good.
We saw a gutless show by those who stood by Abbott. If half a dozen who voted for him had abstained he would be gone. His electorate in the SSM showed what they wanted, he would not stand up for the wishes of his constituents. He is destroying his party and being allowed to by those endorsing his sniping and destabilising behavior. Anyone in a leadership position will not get his support.
Its only about TA. He would destroy his own party trying to get the top job again. He is a great asset for those opposing the L/NP. He is cheering while his party crashes and burns. The longer it goes on the greater the damage.
Will the Libs take any advice? Not likely. Will the electorate give them a message?
Roger @ #1485 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 1:26 pm
LOL! Reminds me of the old joke about winning the lottery – i.e. that your chances are only very slightly improved by actually buying a ticket!
‘steve davis says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 1:18 pm
Boerwar
I was in the UK for a month and found their wages are about 25% behind ours with a similar cost of living.’
It is going to get worse, Corbyn or May.
‘steve davis says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 1:23 pm
Thatcher was determined from 1979 to demolish the whole union movement in the UK which must have had a massive effect on wages in the subsequent years.’
It would be nice to have some stats. We are all guessing.
One of the most important drivers of real wage growth in the postwar period was the growth in world trade, growth that was accompanied by rapid expansion in cross border direct foreign investment and corresponding technology transfer in the industrial goods sectors. Cross border foreign investment has been in long-term trend relative decline while portfolio investment has been rising. That is, equity investment has been declining compared to debt. This has important consequences for the locus, duration and purpose of real investment.
The growth in world trade drove down product prices (expanded real wages); drove investment and skill development (up-skilled jobs); and lifted real output across the old and the new industrialised economies.
The growth in world trade has essentially vanished. This is retarding real wage growth and stilting investment patterns.
As well, environmental disruption is retarding new investment, which would be a source of new income generation and higher real wages. This will get much worse as climate change rolls on. In addition, demographic changes in the industrial economies are repressing consumption and increasing private sector savings, while changes to tax regimes are also encouraging private hoarding rather than consumption ir productive investment.
These forces are all combining to repress wage growth even though total world output continues to grow on a per capita basis.
Time for a nanna nap.
Will try to dream up some stats so that we all, including moi, actually know what we are talking about.
Boerwar
Sweet dreams of Maggie Thatcher.
I left the UK in 1998 so I lived through the conservative years of Thatcher and Major who both destroyed the whole manufacturing base of the UK to smash the union movement once and for all.It was a dark period in UK history watching mines being closed destroying communities making them ghost towns.The country has never recovered since.Many people like myself moved to Australia to get away from the decline of the country and the legacy of Tory governments who did more damage to the UK than Hitler did in the 2nd world war.
imacca
Shorten showed this morning that an interviewee can make an interview look “soft” simply by answering questions and being honest.
One thing is absolutely certain. If Brexit goes thru, real wages in the UK will be smashed. They will be returned to 1960s levels, or possibly less.
Brexit will result in the de-industrialisation of the UK economy.
”
Aunt Mavis says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:39 pm
Good to see that Phelps is standing in Wentworth:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rise-above-bitterness-kerryn-phelps-to-run-as-independent-in-wentworth-20180916-p50420.html
It should turn out to be a three-way contest, and although she hasn’t decided on preferences, you’d think the lion’s share would go to Labor, she being dismissive of Sharma living in North Sydney.
”
Aunt Mavis
She has decided how to preference Libs. Last
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/16/kerryn-phelps-to-run-as-independent-in-wentworth-and-urges-voters-to-put-liberals-last
Tristo:
[‘With Karen Phelps now in the race, there might be an outside chance of her winning Wentworth.’]
She certainly has a very high profile. And, as opposed to Sharma, she’s a local, so she may be in with a chance. She said today that her supporters should put the Tories last. Though I’d prefer to have the Labor candidate get up, she comes in a close second for me.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/16/kerryn-phelps-to-run-as-independent-in-wentworth-and-urges-voters-to-put-liberals-last
This poll (though Peter King is the Tory candidate, not Sharma) records the 2PP as 53:47 to Labor, which should send shivers down the spine of the plotters:
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/wentworth-poll-puts-labor-ahead-in-october-20-byelection-20180912-h159uu
briefly @ #1496 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 1:41 pm
LOL! Because British industry has done so well while the UK has been part of the EU! 🙂
Saw a hard copy of the Sunday Telegraph. They are spinning like a Dervish for Scott Morrison riding on a pure white charger to the rescue of the elderly with his Royal Commission.