BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor

BludgerTrack catches up with Newspoll, as the second round of post-coup polls proves hardly better for the Coalition than the first.

First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.

There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.

In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.

As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.

Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.

Full results featuring state breakdowns:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,744 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor”

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  5. Thanks William, and I certainly understand your skepticism at projecting figures from BT to any seat projections.
    Was there a similar issue when Turnbull assumed leadership from Abbott?

  6. Although you could argue that actions by the Liberals since the leadership change also make any projections difficult as you might underestimate any swing when the election occurs.

  7. Trump and Manafort are using the mafia’s favorite legal technique that could lead to a pardon: ex-federal prosecutors

    Despite efforts on the president’s part to distance himself from his former campaign manager, an analysis of a legal agreement between Donald Trump and Paul Manafort reveals that the two are using a common mob technique that could eventually lead to a pardon.

    Earlier on Thursday, Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani revealed to Politico that the president and his former campaign manager have a joint-defense agreement that allows them to communicate in a manner that is protected by attorney-client privilege.

    In an interview with The Atlantic, former federal prosecutor Elie Honig said those sorts of agreements are commonly used by the mafia to get their stories straight.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/trump-manafort-using-mafias-favorite-legal-technique-lead-pardon-ex-federal-prosecutors/

  8. CNN’s Camerota shames Trump’s crazed tweet on Puerto Rico deaths: ‘They died of neglect’ — not old age

    President Donald Trump on Thursday engaged in fact-free conspiracy mongering when he accused the Democratic Party of fabricating the official number of people in Puerto Rico who died as a result of Hurricane Maria.

    “This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico,” the president wrote on Twitter. “If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics. I love Puerto Rico!”

    CNN’s Alisyn Camerota seemed visibly upset by the president’s tweet — and she angrily shamed him for making up facts just so he could save face politically.

    “We need to deal with the facts, which is these 2,975 people did not die of old age,” she said in direct response to Trump’s tweet. “That is not true. That is not true. They did not die of old age — they died of neglect. They would be alive today if they had had electricity, if they had been able to get their medicine, if they had been able to get water. Those are the people that are counted.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/cnns-camerota-shames-trumps-crazed-tweet-puerto-rico-deaths-died-neglect-not-old-age/

  9. President Trump has made more than 5,000 false or misleading claims in 601 days

    On Sept. 7, President Trump woke up in Billings, Mont., flew to Fargo, N.D., visited Sioux Falls, S.D., and eventually returned to Washington. He spoke to reporters on Air Force One, held a pair of fundraisers and was interviewed by three local reporters.

    In that single day, he publicly made 125 false or misleading statements — in a period of time that totaled only about 120 minutes. It was a new single-day high.

    Trump’s tsunami of untruths helped push the count in The Fact Checker’s database past 5,000 on the 601st day of his presidency. That’s an average of 8.3 Trumpian claims a day, but in the past nine days — since our last update — the president has averaged 32 claims a day.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/13/president-trump-has-made-more-than-false-or-misleading-claims/

  11. Scotty from the Shire has the instability all under control – he has his people making calls..

    “Scott Morrison has called on ­Malcolm Turnbull to stop undermining the government, with the Prime Minister’s office approaching key members of the ousted leader’s camp in a bid to end leaking and destabilisation.

    The appeal comes amid accu­sations that Mr Turnbull and his former deputy, Julie Bishop, have engaged in a campaign of subversion by casting further doubt over the eligibility of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton to sit in parliament, in an implicit threat to the government’s majority.

    The Australian has confirmed that Mr Morrison’s office has contacted several key figures close to Mr Turnbull over the past 48 hours seeking a detente after weeks of damaging leaks against the new Morrison government from suspected former Turnbull government insiders.

    While not issuing direct threats, Mr Morrison’s office is understood to have sent the message that the leaks, including those designed to cast doubt on the Prime Minister’s character, are putting future government at grave risk.”

    http://outline.com/SMhEVf

  12. The thing about the video is that it is completely in opposition to his suburban daggy but devout dad persona, that the has been cultivating for the last two weeks.
    The damage is done, no apology can put the egg back together.

  14. because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter

    It would be interesting to see a structural break test run in a few weeks, with a bit more data. Or run a simple (!) change detection algorithm of the data, and see what it pulls up.

    Or just ignore me.

  18. Craig Emerson asks whether the PM’s twitter account was hacked. Very charitable of him.
    (The tweet was deleted before I woke this morning, but I don’t really care.)

    Mike Carlton‏ @MikeCarlton01 · 1h1 hour ago
    Mike Carlton Retweeted Craig Emerson

    So Morrison has now axed this bizarre tweet. Probably because it broke all the rules of using parliamentary footage ; broke the copyright Laws ; and was a song about anal sex. Astounding.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Morrison has been overruled after the NSW Liberals defied his push for a female candidate to run in Wentworth and instead backed former ambassador Dave Sharma. Stand by for more internal troubles.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-overruled-as-sharma-wins-wentworth-preselection-20180913-p503ns.html
    Michelle Grattan says that the Wentworth preselectors’ rebuff to Morrison caps a week of mayhem.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-wentworth-preselectors-rebuff-to-morrison-caps-week-of-mayhem-103216
    Katharine Murphy writes that voters are seeing a government destroying itself.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/13/politicians-kid-themselves-but-voters-can-see-a-government-destroying-itself
    The SMH editorial says that the Liberals do need to talk about gender imbalance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/liberals-need-to-talk-about-gender-imbalance-20180913-p503ia.html
    Phil Coorey reckons Morrison is heading for an honourable defeat and that more than a few are genuinely concerned the Liberal Party is headed towards an irrevocable split.
    https://outline.com/hA83yZ
    David Crowe explains how Morrison is exposed to a damaging defeat in Parliament as some of his own MPs admit that Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton could have to face the High Court over whether he was invalidly elected.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mps-keep-an-open-mind-over-whether-to-send-peter-dutton-to-the-high-court-20180913-p503mx.html
    And he writes that Morrison needs a better answer to the very reasonable question of why Turnbull was removed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-needs-a-better-answer-to-this-very-reasonable-question-20180913-p503lz.html
    Adele Ferguson covers yesterday’s royal commission hearing in which the CBA’s Comminsure’s practices were excoriated by Rowena Orr. Ferguson concludes with “This delusional and arrogant assessment speaks to a bank which hasn’t yet got to the first step of recovery, admitting it has a problem. A systemic, cultural problem. Life in an exclusive incubator college is exposed in this contribution. It’s hardly pretty.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/sex-booze-and-humiliation-culture-at-exclusive-college-exposed-20180913-p503iv.html
    Ruth Williams goes a little deeper into Comminsure’s tactics.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/omg-i-want-results-tal-hired-investigator-to-dig-dirt-on-nurse-20180913-p503jf.html
    David Crowe posits that religious freedom could be Morrison’s first major test.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/religious-freedom-could-be-morrison-s-first-major-test-20180913-p503kf.html
    Nicole Hasham reports that industry is urging Federal Parliament to salvage the National Energy Guarantee as Labor contemplates adopting the contentious policy that triggered the Turnbull government’s implosion.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/industry-calls-for-neg-resurrection-to-end-cycle-of-hope-and-despair-20180913-p503is.html
    Australia remains on track to miss its Paris climate targets as carbon emissions continue to soar, according to new data. I thought Morrison said we’d meet the targets “in a canter”/
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/14/australia-on-track-to-miss-paris-climate-targets-as-emissions-hit-record-highs
    Labor has accused the Morrison government of censoring the Commonwealth Auditor-General after key sections of a report into a $1.3 billion defence contract were blocked from publication on national security grounds.
    https://outline.com/d5SDcJ
    Frank Lowy has used the 15th annual address of the think tank he founded in his family’s name, the Lowy Institute, to call for the nation to reject the insularity that is sweeping western politics and embrace immigration, innovation and infrastructure.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-moving-in-the-wrong-direction-says-frank-lowy-20180913-p503m6.html
    Latika Bourke tells us that Morrison has apologised for a bizarre video his office posted on social media, showing him rousing his troops to the soundtrack of a well known US hip hop tune that glorifies money and casual sex.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/just-not-ok-scott-morrison-apologises-for-bizarre-social-media-video-20180914-p503nw.html
    Convenience giant 7-Eleven has been called to appear before the Senate inquiry into franchising on Friday following claims it bribed witnesses. It should prove to be an interesting performance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/they-will-be-like-headless-chooks-7-eleven-to-face-inquiry-over-bribery-claims-20180913-p503fa.html
    Nick Miller tells us that the Brits just aren’t as good as Australians at leadership coups.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/ready-aim-misfire-the-brits-just-aren-t-as-good-as-australians-at-leadership-coups-20180913-p503fu.html
    The governor of the Bank of England has warned the cabinet that the impact of a no-deal Brexit could be as catastrophic as the financial crisis that crippled the UK economy a decade ago.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/13/no-deal-brexit-could-be-as-bad-as-2008-financial-crash-carney-says
    And Eurostar trains may stop running in the event of a chaotic no-deal Brexit, the French minister for European affairs has warned.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/13/france-may-stop-trains-and-planes-from-uk-under-no-deal-brexit
    Billed as a housing affordability fix, Scott Morrison’s first home buyers saving scheme is proving unpopular and problem-plagued a year on from its launch.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2018/09/13/scott-morrison-first-home-buyers/
    What a shambles has been Sydney’s light rail project!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/experts-warned-on-sydney-light-rail-project-six-years-ago-20180910-p502ty.html
    Bernie Sanders has said that a new authoritarian axis demands an international progressive front.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2018/sep/13/bernie-sanders-international-progressive-front
    Australia’s migration policy is flawed by examples of discrimination against people with a disability or medical conditions, writes Suresh Rajan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/discrimination-within-australias-migration-policy,11883
    Is Indonesia heading towards effectively being a harsh theocracy?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/indonesia-s-troubled-minorities-20180913-p503i6.html
    Female journalists in the UK are experiencing terrible levels of sexual harassment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/i-will-rape-you-female-journalists-face-relentless-abuse-20180914-p503ob.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope conflates strawberries and potatoes.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    As does David Rowe.

    Some Muppet fun from Paul Zanetti.

    Sean Leahy and the united Liberal party.

    I live this one from Glen Le Lievre!

    A nice one from Jon Kudelka.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4ef8747256e5d67abcc66e0c6ee0bdd4
    More in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-september-14-2018-20180913-h15cx6.html

  21. Good Morning

    What a mess what a farce!

    I don’t think events moved this fast in the ridiculous stakes with Labor in the RGR wars except for the actual days spills were happening.

  22. Why can’t Liberals ever tell the truth? Perhaps they just can’t face the truth of their failures.

    “The data’s telling us clearly again that we’re not on a trajectory to meet our targets, there’s no effective policy to meet our targets, but we’re still hearing commentary from the government that we’re on track to meet our targets.”

  23. Thanks BK and good morning everyone.

    Katharine Murphy writes that voters are seeing a government destroying itself.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/13/politicians-kid-themselves-but-voters-can-see-a-government-destroying-itself

    This has been evident to me for a while now, people stopped listening to the govt a while ago. The knifing of Turnbull was the last straw and I reckon voters are just itching for an election to send a message.

  25. There was a an Energy TV ad last night on TV.

    From the Australian Government, saying they finding ways to reduce power bills.

    But the thing is, there is no information, no legislation.

  27. And what a nasty piece of work SHY is. Always trying to boost herself at the expense of others.

    At the mid-winter ball hosted by the parliamentary press gallery on Wednesday night, the Greens senator Sarah Hanson-Young hollered “bring back Malcolm” in a room full of movers and shakers at the precise moment where Morrison’s, well intentioned, hail-fellow-well-met speech was starting to flag.

    The prime minister flinched, physically, at the rebuke, before gathering himself and ploughing on to his conclusion. The whole room felt the rebuff with him – both friends and enemies – a joke from a fellow combatant that sank like a stone in the room.

  28. Confessions that could easily have been intended as a light hearted roast that fell flat due to Morrison’s lack of self belief. I believe comic speeches are the order of the day. You weren’t there and have no idea of the atmosphere to make that call. I would imagine any other leader with a modicum of confidence in their own position wouldn’t have been floored by that.

  29. Confessions

    Good on SHY. A government that has its core policy of punish people for being poor for fleeing persecution. For attacking workers and their rights etc deserves at least the same reaction that Thatcher got.

    The Gallery types may not have been impressed their group think bubble of acceptable conduct was pricked but I admire SHY for the guts in speaking up. No quarter for this mob is a reasonable sane standard in my view.

  31. She apologised afterwards and claimed it was intended as a joking heckle. To me it’s Morrison’s reaction to it that’s more telling

  33. guytaur,
    SHY’s comment at the MW Ball had absolutely nothing to do with a principled stand on any particular issue. For you to conflate her bitchy snipe at Morrison is disingenuous and misleading.

  34. Zoidlord

    There was a an Energy TV ad last night on TV.

    From the Australian Government, saying they finding ways to reduce power bills.

    But the thing is, there is no information, no legislation.

    SOP for the bullshit artists. Remember back in LOTO Abbott days how many times the electorate was told “We have a plan” for x or y or z. Yet what the plan was was never detailed and what luck for Abbott the journos never thought to ask just what those plans were.

  35. Confessions that could easily have been intended as a light hearted roast that fell flat

    She should try acting like an adult for once instead of a smarmy teenager playing university politics.

  37. Cat

    Have you seen the Washington Correspondents Dinner?

    SHY’s comment was fairly tame really. Plus why the hell shouldn’t she be snarky when people are being tortured in Prison Camps by our government. Its a nice cosy club ignoring the reality for a lot of people at their elite gathering of “movers and shakers”.

  38. Also I note the Labor attack on a Greens person for attacking the LNP.

    It would be a very different situation if say Senator Cameron had made the joke.

  40. Confessions your assumptions don’t align with my understanding of the tone of the event. It’s possible that light hearted ripostes are de rigeur and that in this case it was simply a joke that fell flat. You jump to the most uncharitable interpretation but I don’t think it’s necessarily the accurate one

  42. There’s always a tweet.

    Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump

    The federal gov. has handled Sandy worse than Katrina. There is no excuse why people don’t have electricity or fuel yet.

    1:11 PM – 6 Nov 2012

  43. Cat

    To be clear you want dumb just look at Morrison having to apologise over the tweet last night.

    SHY’s effort is about on par with reciting The Muppet Show lyrics at a presser.

  44. shiftaling @ #40 Friday, September 14th, 2018 – 8:25 am

    Confessions your assumptions don’t align with my understanding of the tone of the event. It’s possible that light hearted ripostes are de rigeur and that in this case it was simply a joke that fell flat. You jump to the most uncharitable interpretation but I don’t think it’s necessarily the accurate one

    Suck it up Princess!

  45. shiftaling @ #40 Friday, September 14th, 2018 – 6:25 am

    Confessions your assumptions don’t align with my understanding of the tone of the event. It’s possible that light hearted ripostes are de rigeur and that in this case it was simply a joke that fell flat. You jump to the most uncharitable interpretation but I don’t think it’s necessarily the accurate one

    It’s pretty obvious that Morrison is (and was always going to be) struggling with the leadership. Light-hearted intent or not, SHY decided to kick a person when they are weak and do it in a publicly humiliating fashion at an event that is supposed to be fun.

    At best she’s utterly clueless and has limited emotional intelligence, at worst she’s just a nasty, vindictive person.

  46. Sums up Morrison for me:

    mrs nixon
    @MrNixonsWife

    Scott Morrison is that guy at work who has the ideas that make the competent people you work with cringe, but that management endorse, and before you know it you have to participate in “funny hat Tuesday” as a team building initiative.
    The David Brent of PMs

  47. shiftaling

    Given the reported timing of the bring back Truffles call “…speech was starting to flag” it would fit very much into the tone of the evening.

  48. guytaur @ #37 Friday, September 14th, 2018 – 8:23 am

    Cat

    Have you seen the Washington Correspondents Dinner?

    SHY’s comment was fairly tame really. Plus why the hell shouldn’t she be snarky when people are being tortured in Prison Camps by our government. Its a nice cosy club ignoring the reality for a lot of people at their elite gathering of “movers and shakers”.

    * The refugees are being confined on islands. They are not being actively tortured. You are using a very loose definition of ‘tortured’.
    * They are not Prison Camps but Detention Centres. Yes they are not in homes of their own but they are slowly being moved out to live elsewhere. This is also Labor policy. To find other countries to take them and to move them off Manus and Nauru.
    * It’s the asylum seekers themselves who are harming themselves

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