First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.
There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.
In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.
As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.
Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.
Full results featuring state breakdowns: