BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor

BludgerTrack catches up with Newspoll, as the second round of post-coup polls proves hardly better for the Coalition than the first.

First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.

There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.

In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.

As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.

Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.

Full results featuring state breakdowns:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,744 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor”

  1. If Sydney Bludgers had to stay in self contained accommodation close to the CBD where would youse stay?

    I’ve pinged onto APX World Square but it looks too cheap for its location to be kosher.

  2. Loving the bed wetters who are in shock as a slight swing back to the government. They have a view of the polls similar to Trump – cannot be true if they don’t like it.

  3. Roger M:

    That Geoscience Aust website when looked at globally shows earthquakes starting out near Africa a week ago and working their way over to Aust and NZ over the last week.

    Fascinating, and I thank steve davis for introducing me to the site.

  4. Rex:

    [‘Shocking poll for Labor and Bill Shorten given the chaos within the Govt.’]

    Please stop the effing crap.

    With Fairfax/Ipsos recording a 2PP of 53, you need to take stock.

  5. doyley @ #1682 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:54 pm

    Firstly, Penny Wong for one argued strongly in favour of the TPP in the caucus meeting and Pat Conroy during HOR debate on the legislation was pragmatic re the TPP and while expressing concern about some adverts was in favour so the left v right caucus battle is bullshit.

    Secondly, late last week Penny Wong explained clearly and succinctly during a interview on RN Drive why labor was supporting the TPP and how labor would address concerns raised in caucus and by unions.

    I suggest posters check it out before assuming anything re the legislation.

    Thirdly, with all due respect, while posters here hyperventilate re the voter reaction to labor agreeing to support the TPP it should be considered that most may not have a clue what it was about and how it would affect individual lives and unless they can touch and or feel it’s direct implications could not give a shit.

    The upcoming aged care debate will be of more concern to voters as will the continuing effects of stagnant wages and soaring power prices.

    Cheers and a great night to all.

    Well there may be renegades but I was told left right effectively.

    Penny is a pretty middle of the road lefty anyway ie barely left. I m surprised by Conroy.

  6. PlayerOne
    If they had already owned Philiip Morris (Aust), they probably would have won.

    That claim is without evidence. The court made no ruling as they declined to hear the case on the technical grounds you mentioned. Philip Morris went jurisdiction shopping and was punished for it.

    Furthermore, the ISDS provisions contained in the TPP are much more restrictive in their application than those within the Honk Kong-Australia FTA.

  7. Much as I’d like to believe it, 15% to the Greens seems a pretty rogue-ish, given that nothing much has really happened news-wise to justify such a surge.

  8. sprocket:

    Cheers.

    It says something about how dire things have been for the Coalition lately that a 53-47 deficit actually seems like a decent result for them!

  9. You don’t say!

    ROYAL COMMISSION
    PM warns: ‘I won’t put up with lies’
    RICK MORTON
    Scott Morrison says Australians must brace themselves for ‘bruising’ truths about the way our most vulnerable are treated. (Oz headline)

  10. Re perspective on the Ipsos.

    Labor PV is 11% less than the Newspoll PV one week ago and almost 5% less than the labor PV at the 2016 election.

    Of course the contest is going to tighten over the coming months. That was a given. 56- 44 was never going to last. But the PV for both labor and the greens in this Ipsos is pure rubbish.

    Cheers.

  11. Gorks @ #1686 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:58 pm

    Regardless of reservations about TPP and whether Labor can do enough to protect workers from negative impacts of the treaty, I have found Bill Shorten to be quite comfortable and not least bothered on the issue. Considering TPP is a bit of a sticky point within Labor, it just shows me that Shorten is supremely confident of his internal authority and policy direction of ALP under his leadership.

    This may all be true. However, it doesn’t explain why Shorten would sign up for the TPP when the ALP has decided that when it is in government, it will make signing such treaties illegal 🙁

  12. Shocking poll for Labor and Bill Shorten given the chaos within the Govt.

    Try not to get too excited, Rex.

    It’s just one poll, and one that would still result in Labor winning in a landslide if replicated at an election.

    Time will tell if it’s a sign of a genuine recovery for Coalition or just a blip. Personally, I can’t for the life of me fathom what could have possibly have turned voter opinion around in the last week, so my money’s on the latter.

  13. JimmyD @ #1711 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 7:19 pm

    PlayerOne
    If they had already owned Philiip Morris (Aust), they probably would have won.

    That claim is without evidence. The court made no ruling as they declined to hear the case on the technical grounds you mentioned. Philip Morris went jurisdiction shopping and was punished for it.

    Philip Morris Asia certainly thought they had a case.

    Furthermore, the ISDS provisions contained in the TPP are much more restrictive in their application than those within the Honk Kong-Australia FTA.

    Sure they are. In fact, the opposite is true.

  14. ‘I just don’t see how a Govt can bind future Govts to a piece of legislation. ‘

    The concept is that the government is eternal, it’s whose in charge of it which changes.

    ‘Governments’ sign legislation binding future governments all the time.

  15. IPSOS is just another version of Fairfax’s other clickbait Domain..

    Only 49 per cent of voters said Mr Morrison had the confidence of his party.. That’s not possible given Morrison hardly has 50% support within the party room.

  16. Meanwhile in Turkey, Erdogan is holding all the cards, and all the pens apparently

    Erdogan approving Erdogan nominating Erdogan as the chairman of the Turkish sovereign fund worth $200 billion. Signed – #Erdogan.

  17. Dear doyley

    When it comes to the crunch, the 2PP will narrow to 52:48 – whomsoever leads the Tories, Labor.

    The swing to Labor will see it form government.

  18. zoomster @ #1723 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 7:33 pm

    ‘I just don’t see how a Govt can bind future Govts to a piece of legislation. ‘

    The concept is that the government is eternal, it’s whose in charge of it which changes.

    ‘Governments’ sign legislation binding future governments all the time.

    This is at best a polite fiction. You cannot draft a piece of legislation that cannot be overturned by a subsequent piece of legislation.

  19. I have been thinking further about the announcement today by Morrison to establish a RC into aged care and I am more convinced it is a poor political option.

    Reviews and committees have examined the arse out of the industry over the last few years and all stakeholders know what the problems are. If Morrison is hoping to glide through the uproar the 4C investigation will drive by relying on the establishment of a RC then he is a bigger fool than I thought.

    Unless Morrison follows up quickly with some concrete policy announcements then there will be a huge vacuum labor will be ready to fill.

    $2 billion in cuts clearly set out in the budget will be impossible to defend simply by rinsing and repeating ” We have established a RC ” and by going down the RC road Morrison has put the focus directly onto the cuts and the lack of policy.

    As I have already noted, if Morrson does not follow up with something concrete in the next few weeks then labor will own this issue.

    Cheers.

  20. doyley @ #1683 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:54 pm

    Secondly, late last week Penny Wong explained clearly and succinctly during a interview on RN Drive why labor was supporting the TPP and how labor would address concerns raised in caucus and by unions.

    Not even remotely reassured by that. They cannot do what New Zealand is doing because the deal will have already been signed into law by the time Labor gains office.

    Wong’s claim to “seek to renegotiate certain aspects of it the deal” is the sort of promise you make when you know you’ve got no hope in succeeding. “Oh well, we sought to renegotiate the deal, but the other parties wouldn’t play ball. We tried, but can’t do anything about it, so never mind”

    Same as the ISDS clause. Wong claims “we don’t support those (but we nevertheless voted for them in the treaty anyway). Then when we’re in office we’ll seek to renegotiate (that utterly useless and meaningless term again) them away”.

    So, nope, none of those concerns have been dealt with. At all.

    A promise to “seek to renegotiate” means absolutely fuck all.

  21. If Sydney Bludgers had to stay in self contained accommodation close to the CBD where would youse stay?

    I’ve pinged onto APX World Square but it looks too cheap for its location to be kosher.

    I’ve stayed at APX. Its in need of a refurb but the beds are ok. Good when its on special.
    My current favourite is a place called Value Suites at Green Square. Kind of the poor man’s Meriton. Modern, clean and good value (usually).

  22. Dan Gulberry,

    The only country with which Australia has ISDS provisions is Canada, the country that, with NZ, led the push to junk the bulk of the ISDS provisions from the original TPP in the renegotiated CPTPP.

  23. Cud Chewer,
    I stayed at Megaboom Hotel in York Street. Really nice decor. Attentive staff, who will hep you to get what you want. Not too expensive.

  24. IPSOS is crap now.

    Also:

    PatriciaKarvelas
    ‏Verified account @PatsKarvelas
    2m2 minutes ago

    PatriciaKarvelas Retweeted ABC News

    Liberal Party President calls for the numbers of votes against Tony Abbott to be revealed #auspol
    Full interview on air at 9pm AEST on #nationalwrap on @abcnews TV

  25. DaretoTread says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 6:36 pm
    dave @ #1658 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:20 pm

    Labor really need to get information out on what TPP will mean to our country & voters – benefits and negatives – and they need to do it quickly.
    Well I know for a certain fact that it was a battle in caucus – left versus right, Right won.

    Bollocks. Penny Wong, from the left, has always been a supporter of the TPP and its forerunners, including CHAFTA.


  26. briefly says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 2:27 pm

    i Think the greatest single threat to real wages is climate change.

    Sooner or latter it will be realized very large investments need to be made.

  27. Bernard Keane
    ‏Verified account @BernardKeane
    35m35 minutes ago

    15% primary vote for the Greens? Go home Ipsos, you’re drunk. And fix your methodology when you sober up. Garbage numbers.

  28. I am sticking with my prediction of Labor winning between 84-89 seats (it could go higher although). I don’t see Labor winning more than 40% of the primary vote. More likely Labor will get around the 37-40% of the primary vote.

    The Senate contest is going to have either major party struggling to win more than 2 senators in each state, with right-wing populist ‘anti-globalist’ parties winning senate seats in almost every state. Fraser Anning, Darryn Hinch (if he decides to stand again) and perhaps David Leyonhjelm getting re-elected. Although if Mark Latham stands for One Nation in the senator he could get elected. Bill Shorten’s government might need to deal with them to get legislation passed.

    Scott Morrison so far is disappointing the anti-globalist people who usually vote for the Coalition. Although a fair amount of people who usually vote Labor are supporting them as well. Indeed I predict they won’t like him for being another ‘globalist shill’.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *