BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor

BludgerTrack catches up with Newspoll, as the second round of post-coup polls proves hardly better for the Coalition than the first.

First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.

There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.

In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.

As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.

Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.

Full results featuring state breakdowns:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,744 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 28 of 35
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  1. “Libs think the dementia patients will forget all about the funding cuts for their care”

    And they will be delighted to pay for services they don’t get, aged care and banks really are a perfect match.

  3. Overall, very impressed with Shorten on Insiders. One area where I wasn’t was his answers regarding the TPP. His claim “we’ll fix it in office” doesn’t really stand up. The way I understand it is that once it’s been signed it’s nigh on impossible to change it. Jacinda Ardern was able to mollify some of the provisions was she negotiated them away before it was signed.

    We shall see. I will certainly be keeping an eye on that one once Labor are in office. Failure to rectify it will not go down well with me. Not even attempting to rectify it will be viewed with extreme prejudice.

    It’s all very well and good to promise better treatment of workers, however signing a treaty that allows multinationals to override these and potentially take the government to a secret court over them issues is not a good idea. At all.

    We shall see.

  4. Privatise what was a public service. No.1 issue of importance becomes ‘Profits’.How to increase profits ? Efficiency,innovation ? Nah too hard. Hire lower qualified staff, provide reduced service levels, go for ‘cheap’ , reduce staff , screw over workers, get increased government support etc etc.

  5. WWP

    There is a huge risk that Melb do over West Coast here next Saturday, but in the hope West Coast prevail it would be really really good if Collingwood and Richmond got very very hard, half kill each other would be helpful.

    I think West Coast are likely to prevail. Don’t forget when Melbourne won over here we were without Kennedy and lost Darling early in the game. Hopefully it is a warm sunny afternoon to maximise the home ground advantage.

  6. briefly:

    FWIW Insiders discussion on Abbott’s preselection was that the members in Warringah didn’t necessarily want him to lose his preselection, but wanted to send a message to him that he isn’t representing their interests.

    Having done that I reckon come election day they’ll just vote 1. Liberal again like they always do.

  7. poroti @ #1354 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 10:46 am

    Privatise what was a public service. No.1 issue of importance becomes ‘Profits’.How to increase profits ? Efficiency,innovation ? Nah too hard. Hire lower qualified staff, provide reduced service levels, go for ‘cheap’ , reduce staff , screw over workers, get increased government support etc etc.

    That would be extremely cynical if it weren’t so accurate.

  9. Jane Norman
    ‏Verified account @janeenorman
    17h17 hours ago

    The ABC understands Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis fully intends to contest the next election if she wins preselection in Gilmore (contrary to some reports tonight) #auspol @politicsabc
    12 replies 43 retweets 25 likes

  10. “Karen Middleton writes such factual, intelligently analysed articles in SatPaper that I was very disappointed when she was complimentary about Morrison doing a good job, etc.”

    I was unimpressed with Middleton when on SBS (Kill Julia), and any idiot that visits a country for two weeks (Afghanistan) and then writes a book about it is suss. She writes for her employer, the Saturday Paper, as most journalists write for those that own them. On the Insiders she is true to her right-wing self.

  11. confessions, I reckon that’s fair comment. But at the last election Abbott had trouble funding his campaign. The Liberals are in all kinds of political trouble because of his stirring and his revenge-seeking. His constituents will be receptive to a campaign against him. A good candidate could break up the Liberal vote and possibly win.

    Abbott is a very polarising figure. He will cause just as much resentment in his own backyard as he does everywhere else. He is beatable.

  12. Sohar

    I am learning that you are cynical about everyone and everything. Unfortunately it took me a while to understand, but I suppose you provide balance to my optimism. :).

  13. lizzie @ #1362 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:00 am

    Sohar

    I am learning that you are cynical about everyone and everything. Unfortunately it took me a while to understand, but I suppose you provide balance to my optimism. :).

    I think that Sohar is justifiably cynical about our woeful media.
    Don’t know about ‘everyone and anything’, since he/she rarely comments on other things when I’ve been around anyway.

  14. [‘When listening to the 3 tenors it was quite clear to me that he was a cut above the other two …’]

    Andrew, I’m in earnest agreement with you. Incidentally, he attended Sutherland’s last full performance (Les Huguenots) at the Sydney Opera House in 1990. When he entered from the wings, he was given a standing ovation.

  15. Journalists are employees and like all employees they do the job their boss wants them to do . Given the increasingly precarious employment situation in sometimes very well paid jobs they would be even keener than usual to please the media proprietor who pays for them.

  16. briefly:

    Yes I agree with you that a good independent candidate could do very well in Warringah given the current state of play. I just think Liberal members will still hold their nose and vote for Abbott, esp if the insight about them not wanting to tip him out but send him a msg all the same is true.

    I still cannot for the life of me understand why the moderates didn’t put up one of their own to oppose him.

  18. Confessions@9:48pm
    I think Barry Cassidy invited Karen Middleton on Insiders to tell her story about Morrison angle to Libs leadership putsch, which she already published couple of weeks ago in Saturday Newspaper. Saturday newspaper has a limited reach and circulation. By asking her to tell her on ABC, he has given her much bigger audience. I believe overwhelming majority of people think that Morrison became PM with clean hands although many of them do not want him in the first place. That is the reason I think preferred PM flipped in his favour in newspoll with in a fortnight.
    We all know that 45 Libs voted for spill and 40 against. But Morrison won 45-40. I am about to state the obvious but stay with me. So at least 5 people or maybe more, who voted for spill voted for Morrison. Although I didn’t believe that Morrison had that scheming smarts after Middleton story is published, I wondered who could be that 5 people who flipped. I read somewhere that Fifield and Cash who voted for spill voted for Morrison, which I found plausible because they didn’t loose much in reshuffle. Who could be the other 3. Warren Entsch could be one of them because he wrote ‘it is for Nelson’ or something similar in the petition for spill and I don’t think he would have voted for Dutton.
    I couldn’t figure out the other 2 for a long time. Then the story about Paul Fletcher along with Sinodinos trying to persuade Dave Sharma to drop out of Wentworth by-election contest. Then I remembered how Paul Fletcher convinced his other Lib colleagues on Whatsapp (especially women) not to vote for Julie Bishop. Also, he is a Minister now (I am not sure whether he was Minister when MT ministry).
    Then I thought who is biggest winner in Morrison ministry reshuffle. Michelle Price came to my mind. She is Environment Minister. I do not think she was Minister in MT ministry. What is connection between her and Morrison. Coal.

  19. Re the Guardian. It was the environment reporter, Lisa Cox, that pushed the Turnbull’s $444m ‘gift’ to his mates at the GBRF, not Murphy and her political bureau who tried to shut it down, as she did Turnbull’s cover up of Barnabygate.

  20. “I think West Coast are likely to prevail. Don’t forget when Melbourne won over here we were without Kennedy and lost Darling early in the game. Hopefully it is a warm sunny afternoon to maximise the home ground advantage.”

    I couldn’t agree more a sudden heat wave with near 35 at the stupid time it starts would be fantastic.

  21. Jolyon Wagg

    The other thing I noticed in that West Coast-Melbourne game was that when Melbourne got the lead back in the last quarter there was not a “do or die” sense of urgency among the Eagles players. Which was fair enough because in reality winning that game was almost certainly not going to have any impact on their own final ladder position, and there is no point risking unnecessary injuries in such a case.

    I think a home Preliminary Final will be completely different and I expect West Coast to win. I am still gob-smacked that most media pundits (in Melbourne anyway!) did not have the Eagles in their “Eight” before the season started – they had made the finals last year, and beaten Port in Adelaide. I certainly expected them to make it and maybe even a losing prelim, but a grand final berth would exceed my highest expectation for them pre-season.

    I was working in rural WA when the Eagles made the finals last year, and I felt the incredible excitement that brought their supporters. So I wish all of you good luck for this next game.

  22. The whole point of Rex’s Lib Bot posts is to set the agenda: basically Killing Bill and defending Bill.\
    That is where he always ends up, with perhaps a detour to Labour bad/Labour good.
    His one aim is to get the conversation into that territory.
    While you are engaging in this, Rex the Lib Bot has you exactly what he wants.
    Clever as? Nah. Basically derivative of the Blair/Clinton triangulation technique.
    Clever as? Only if you engage.

  23. Alena Ivanova, a leading activist for the grassroots group Momentum in east London, said: “This is a campaign now being led by the left… Tory Brexit is a fundamental threat to the rights and prosperity of working-class people and the communities that Labour represents, driven by bosses and rightwing ideologues. We will only stop it with unashamed leftwing internationalism and, crucially, that will also help us in the campaign to get the Corbyn government we need.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/sadiq-khan-new-referendum-peoples-vote-labour-corbyn

  24. Adrian and Sohar

    Obviously I don’t have the correct political attitude, nor do I always look for hidden motives, but I enjoy PB, so I’ll stay around. 🙂

  27. I’d have thought the fast and furious way Melbourne play, as opposed to West Coast’s more stagnant style, would be better suited to warm dry conditions. The plus for West Coast is that Melbourne’s high energy game could fizzle out in the Perth heat. Whoever wins the Perth game, I hope they beat Richmond or Collingwood the week after.

  28. Boerwar @ #1372 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:14 am

    The whole point of Rex’s Lib Bot posts is to set the agenda: basically Killing Bill and defending Bill.\
    That is where he always ends up, with perhaps a detour to Labour bad/Labour good.
    His one aim is to get the conversation into that territory.
    While you are engaging in this, Rex the Lib Bot has you exactly what he wants.
    Clever as? Nah. Basically derivative of the Blair/Clinton triangulation technique.
    Clever as? Only if you engage.

    He certainly seems to have you engaging 🙂

  29. BW@11:14am
    Yes Rex is Liz Bot, which I proved a few times. Rex main aim is to sow discord among ALP supporters among other things because Rex wants to shut down the debate over LNP horrendous state of affairs.

  30. Sohar
    The Minister directly responsible for the $443 million pot of gold was Frydenberg.
    Cormann’s Finance Department gave direct advice that it should not have been transferred as a lump sum. The advice was presumably channeled through the Finance Minister, either directly to Turnbull and Frydenberg, or when the matter was discussed in Cabinet.
    The notion that Cormann did not know about the plan to throw away half a billion dollars does not pass the pub test.

  31. Zoidlord:

    [‘The ABC understands Liberal MP Ann Sudmalis fully intends to contest the next election…’]

    Other than nodding her head in fervent agreement with former Dear Leader Trumble, I don’t think Sudmalis has achieved much. And by coming out strongly in favour of reducing Sunday penalty rates, I think she’ll be toast, sitting on a wee margin of 0.7%.

  32. “Corbyn’s betrayal of the progressives’ commitment to internationalism is quite stark”
    Internationalism? Globalisation? Neo-liberalism?

  34. ‘Ven says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 11:23 am

    BW@11:14am
    Yes Rex is Liz Bot, which I proved a few times. Rex main aim is to sow discord among ALP supporters among other things because Rex wants to shut down the debate over LNP horrendous state of affairs.’

    Rex the Lib Bot is entitled to post, of course.
    Bludger is, after all, a broad church.
    Other posters are entitled to leave him to it, of course.
    Why feed him?

  36. Aunt Mavis @ #1381 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:23 am

    Other than nodding her head in fervent agreement with former Dear Leader Trumble, I don’t think Sudmalis has achieved much. And by coming out strongly in favour of reducing Sunday penalty rates, I think she’ll be toast, sitting on a wee margin of 0.7%.

    Yes. I am in her electorate. Sudmalis is toast down here, and she knows it.

  37. Boerwar @ #1380 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:23 am

    Sohar
    The Minister directly responsible for the $443 million pot of gold was Frydenberg.
    Cormann’s Finance Department gave direct advice that it should not have been transferred as a lump sum. The advice was presumably channeled through the Finance Minister, either directly to Turnbull and Frydenberg, or when the matter was discussed in Cabinet.
    The notion that Cormann did not know about the plan to throw away half a billion dollars does not pass the pub test.

    So, what other gifts of taxpayer largesse is Frydenburg going to approve?

  38. ‘Sohar says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 11:24 am

    “Corbyn’s betrayal of the progressives’ commitment to internationalism is quite stark”
    Internationalism? Globalisation? Neo-liberalism?’

    Progressives have always been internationalist in their orientation.
    Many of our major problems can ONLY be solved through international action, IMO.
    Such problems include global warming, the free run capital is getting over the workers, and rampant militarization.
    Corbyn’s notion that the UK can go it alone is, to say the least, a large doctrinal leap away from progressive traditions.

  39. Happy Clapper: Bled from both nostrils and will likely be retired

    Can someone explain to me the need to call Royal Commisions?

    Surely this is a function of poor regulatory legislation including a failure to act on complaints due to poor regulatory legislation

    So a function of the government prosecuting that the most effective form of regulation is self regulation

    So we get back to equality, regulation and a better balance between government and society

    When that equality, regulation and balance are absent the ultimate result is that so many are disadvantaged without recourse that the outcome is pressure for a RC to be established

    These RC’s are the result of disadvantage – disadvantage which has manifested over 17 of the past 22 years due to government dogma in support of their constituency exclusively (noting their RC into Shorten)

    They are now being forced to march to a different drum – the drum of Shorten and Labor representing a change in direction for Australia

  40. lizzie @ #1376 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:17 am

    Adrian and Sohar

    Obviously I don’t have the correct political attitude, nor do I always look for hidden motives, but I enjoy PB, so I’ll stay around. 🙂

    I have a couple of spare political attitudes and I’m willing to share.

    Mostly involves mowing, edging, watering pot plants and swearing a lot as well as ignoring stuff that I don’t agree with. 🙄😵 😲

  43. Confessions says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 11:11 am
    briefly:

    Yes I agree with you that a good independent candidate could do very well in Warringah given the current state of play. I just think Liberal members will still hold their nose and vote for Abbott, esp if the insight about them not wanting to tip him out but send him a msg all the same is true.

    I still cannot for the life of me understand why the moderates didn’t put up one of their own to oppose him.

    I guess the moderates could only expect even more upheaval if they mobilised against Abbott. You’d think most Liberals would be hoping the enmities will abate and a unified front can be presented to to the electorate. The message they’ve sent in voting for any empty chair is significant without being disruptive.

    Even so, Abbott is on notice. It’s a shrewd manoeuvre by the Anti-Abbott voices, especially because it echoes the events that led to his removal from the parliamentary leadership. The fact that his allies lost their branch offices means he no longer has the numbers. He will be feeling distinctly chilly this morning. He can be toppled anytime his opponents choose. He has been warned that he will also pay a price for his part in the destruction of the government. If he’s smart he will sue for peace.

  45. Boerwar @ #1388 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:28 am

    Progressives have always been internationalist in their orientation.
    Many of our major problems can ONLY be solved through international action, IMO.

    The term is too broad. I support things like the UN and the EU and the ICC, and cooperative action/treaties on climate change, and so on. I oppose things like the TPP and anything else which tends only to empower large, multinational corporates.

    Is that “internationalist”, or not?

  46. “Karen Middleton writes such factual, intelligently analysed articles in SatPaper that I was very disappointed when she was complimentary about Morrison doing a good job, etc.”

    I was unimpressed with Middleton when on SBS (Kill Julia), and any idiot that visits a country for two weeks (Afghanistan) and then writes a book about it is suss. She writes for her employer, the Saturday Paper, as most journalists write for those that own them. On the Insiders she is true to her right-wing self.’

    I know Karen reasonably well at a personal level and this post is bs.

  47. Player One @ #1392 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:33 am

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/sadiq-khan-new-referendum-peoples-vote-labour-corbyn

    While we’re at it, can we also re-run the last US presidential election, the elections of Margaret Thatcher and John Howard, and the referendum that gave us Advance Australia Fair as our national anthem?

    Yes. Subverted processes cannot lead to legitimate results. We must have a do-over.

  48. This has probably been posted before, but just in case:

    Joke of Last Week (Peter FitzSimons)

    (I am told this one has been going around Liberal Party circles in Parliament House for the last fortnight – it’s just that not everyone is laughing!)

    Knock, Knock.

    Who’s there?

    Peter.

    Peter who?

    Scott Morrison.

  50. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 11:18 am
    briefly
    Corbyn’s betrayal of the progressives’ commitment to internationalism is quite stark.

    He’s a reactionary in my book.

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