First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.
There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.
In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.
As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.
Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.
Full results featuring state breakdowns:
briefly:
Good points. I will believe Abbott has settled down and toes the party line when I see it, however. He is and always has been instinctively a wrecker.
ar
I accept the general point you are making.
Nevertheless, the essential point here is that, by turning his back on the EU and European multilaterism, Corbyn is opting to take the lead on a particularly rank and xenophobic brand of UK nationalism. The UK will be directly impovershed by this, in fact it is being impoverished by it already.
When Corbyn gets in, as I believe he will, it is going to be very entertaining to watch Corbyn take the UK straight down the Maduro plughole.
The two things he will achieve if he actually implements his Program will be (a) capital flight – the City will go straight across the Ditch, taking 12% of the economy with it, and (b) capital strike. The UK economy will go pfffffft.
But at least the workers and the poor will have a much bigger share of SFA than the bosses!
a r @ #1397 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:35 am
I think you missed my point. Picking particular outcomes to re-do just because you disagree with the outcome is just as illegitimate.
lizzie
The Brexiteers had leaders such as Farage (who has admitted he lied during the referendum) and Johnston as well as Corbyn, of course.
briefly
If he’s smart he will sue for peace.
I can see now a contrite Abbott post-election (if the Coalition lose). Having played Dutton for a sucker he will then present himself as the Liberals’ best chance for healing and revival. I fully expect this to happen at the first party-room meeting if they lose badly. If it’s just an average loss it will be sometime towards the end of 2019, when he will feel “compelled, for the good of the party”, to lead a challenge against Morrison. The post-election numbers, the desolation of opposition and collective amnesia of his two years as PM will see him get back the leadership.
Good morning again,
Interesting tactic from Morrison to announce a RC when , with all due respect, the issue has been examined over many months and years and through countless reviews and committees.
Shorten has listened to what the issues are in every Town hall he has done across the country. Labor , as a result, has its aged care policy locked, loaded and ready to go. Morrison and the government have got jack shit except to bring forward monies already announced in the budget. No terms of reference for the RC, nothing.
Huge opportunity for labor to claim the narrative and push for change now, not in 12- 18 months time and after the next election. Morrison will play the ” wait and see what the RC comes up with ” card to cover his policy free arse on this issue. Labor will demand change now and point to the banking RC as a example of being able to do walk and chew gum stuck the same time. Labor will push the point that we can have the RC with our full support but implement changes now, changes that have been identified as a result of the numerous enquiries already held. Elderly Australians deserve dignity and the best care they can get and labor will work with the government to implement change now. We cannot wait for another 12 – 18 months.
If Morrison hopes to neutralise this issue by announcing a RC and then putting off doing anything of substance until the RC reports then he will leave a huge policy vacuum labor is willing and able to fill right now especially if the eventual TOR do not include retirement villages and staffing and pay issues.
I am sure the unions will be front and centre re staffing and pay issues and labor may well remind everyone the Gillard government set aside $1.2 billion to fund proper wage rates for aged care staff. Money that was ripped out of the fund and returned to general revenue when Abnott became PM five years ago.
Cheers
P1
Democracy is a continuum. Trump if he is still in office and running in 2020 can indeed be voted out. All governments can be voted out. All referenda can be voted on again – no referendum says “for all time”.
d
Hmmm… Mr Shorten was running the same lines in Insiders as you are in your post. You are not Chloe, are you?
Rocket Rocket @ #1408 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 11:45 am
Sure. And Britain can certainly vote to re-join the EU. Once they have left.
It is interesting that these so-called Labour Party ‘Internationalists’ in the England are the same people that support ‘austerity’, whereby wealth is moved from the poorest in society to the wealthiest. Just a bunch of Blairite spivs. Internationalists? Ha!
Observer@11:28am
I also don’t see the need for Aged care RC immediately. Instead of spending money on RC, spend the money on other R i.e Regulation (a government one) for at least 1 year and review the results. If there is no improvement then have a RC. Those aged care centres need proper supervision now not after 1 year.
Boerwar,
Unless Chloe is secretly a bald 62 yo grumpy Ol’ man in disguise then, dear sir, you are doing her a huge injustice !
BTW, I am pretty sure Chloe is not a bald 62 yo grumpy Ol’ man in disguise just to set the record straight.
Cheers and a great day to you.
Confessions says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 11:41 am
briefly:
Good points. I will believe Abbott has settled down and toes the party line when I see it, however. He is and always has been instinctively a wrecker.
Those closest to Abbott will know just how much wrecking he’s capable of. He has been leading a subterranean guerilla war among Liberals for years. He must be thoroughly despised by many.
‘doyley says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 11:54 am
Boerwar,
Unless Chloe is secretly a bald 62 yo grumpy Ol’ man in disguise then, dear sir, you are doing her a huge injustice !
BTW, I am pretty sure Chloe is not a bald 62 yo grumpy Ol’ man in disguise just to set the record straight.
Cheers and a great day to you.’
LOL
‘Sohar says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 11:50 am
It is interesting that these so-called Labour Party ‘Internationalists’ in the England are the same people that support ‘austerity’, whereby wealth is moved from the poorest in society to the wealthiest. Just a bunch of Blairite spivs. Internationalists? Ha!’
What is your plan for dealing with global warming absent international action?
Remember when the only thing holding medical insurance prices down was Medibank controlled by the gov? Just as predicted, once it was let loose, everything changed.
l
Yep
What I will be hugely interested in this coming week is if anything drips out about
1) Turnbull having a RC into aged care ready to go just before his knifing and or
2) certain cabinet members in the Turnbull government being strongly opposed to such a move and or
3) this Morrison announcement not going through cabinet and or
4) the relevant minister, Ken Wyatt, having no idea what Morrison is on about
etc etc etc etc.
Cheers.
Boerwar
Well it sure as hell is not ‘austerity’ for the poor so the boys in The City can keep buying their Saville Row suits.
@boerwar
There are socialist or Marxist Europsceptics who believe the European Union is an capitalist entity which favors the bourgeoise over the proletariat.
I very much doubt that the aged-care RC will achieve much, both of my parents dying in them. Yes, they have a complaints system but if you complain, you don’t know what goes on when you’re not there.
One of greatest problems in aged-care is the staff/patient ratio, which is exacerbated on weekends. It was commonplace in facilities where my parents resided to have two staff on duty to meet the needs of a ward (high care) of around twenty, all of whom suffered varying levels of dementia, and allied health problems.
Another problem is elder abuse, which will no doubt be exposed in Four Corners. One way of countering ill-treatment is to have CCT in every room in the facility. This would put staff on notice.
And of course the other big problem is funding, which must be greatly increased, after being reduced by some $2B. Put the money where your mouths are Messrs. Morrison & Hunt, and don’t wait until to the RC is complete.
“There are socialist or Marxist Europsceptics who believe the European Union is an capitalist entity which favors the bourgeoise over the proletariat.”
I’m not saying I agree, but that would be a reasonable conclusion to draw over say the last 40 years of evidence.
The RBA is deeply conflicted on population growth …
They like the growing economy … but the downside is stubbornly low wages growth and high unemployment:
However, at the end of the day, they are economists, who really don’t care about those who are economic losers …
As far as they are concerned, we live in an economy, not a society.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-16/population-participation-a-big-difference-in-unemployment-wages/10243828
Let’s hope the next Labor government sees the light and puts in place a population policy.
Maduro is Corbyn’s future.
Venezuela is the UK’s future.
There will be no need to institute a policy or program of austerity.
It will happen all by itself.
A million pounds for a cup of coffee.
Crazy. ‘Knife rights’ groups are emulating the tactics deployed by the NRA and are winning.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/borrowing-strategy-from-nra-activists-quietly-overturn-knife-restrictions-across-us/2018/09/15/3585d724-b789-11e8-94eb-3bd52dfe917b_story.html?utm_term=.3ae58bc6780f
Lol … you really are a broken record.
‘WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:11 pm
“There are socialist or Marxist Europsceptics who believe the European Union is an capitalist entity which favors the bourgeoise over the proletariat.”
I’m not saying I agree, but that would be a reasonable conclusion to draw over say the last 40 years of evidence.’
Evidence?
Uh huh. What was the average real income of workers 40 years ago compared to now?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/15/almost-half-of-voters-say-they-would-vote-for-new-party-in-election
The ideologues in UK Labour are leading a purge…Despite the extraordinary incompetence and division of the Tories, Labour is still only barely breaking even in the polls…The ructions and enmities being aroused in Labour are every bit as deep as those in the Tories….neither side offers a concrete alternative to Brexit….and voters are getting ready to dump one or both of them….makes me think…
After the Great War, the Liberal Party- the party of Gladstone, the great modernising force in the UK in the 19th century – basically ceased to exist. The Liberals were in power most of the time before and during the War. On its end, the Liberals carried responsibility for the conduct of the war and for all the failings and losses it represented.
Likewise, it’s possible that one or other or both of the two existing major parties in the UK may cease to exist if Brexit goes through.
The Great War was entirely avoidable but the involvement of Britain – brought about by the deceptions and incompetence of the Liberal Foreign Minister and the weakness of successive Liberal Cabinets – on the side of France made it essentially inevitable. The losses to Britain were astronomical. They basically heralded the end of British imperial financial, industrial and political supremacy and dissipated their practical independence for all time. The Liberals bore the political price for that.
The existing major parties are roughly equally complicit in a contemporary act of self-destruction that will annihilate the modernised financial, industrial and political capacities of the UK.
Brexit is every bit as idiotic and avoidable as the Great War and it’s being entertained for the same kinds of reasons – on the basis of appeals to a phoney nationalism, and to romantic fallacies about British destiny, authority and neo-imperialist privilege. A century ago, the British connived with one of the leading chauvinist groupings of the day – the militarists of France. They are conniving now with the chauvinists of the 21st century – the anti-EU right, the racists, the nationalists, the reactionaries.
This will end very badly. There is no doubt whatsoever about it.
I think someone on Insiders mentioned that the ‘gender problem’ with the Libs extends beyond the parliamentary members into the “Young” libs..
That suggests at least another generation lost to them over the medium to long term since that is where the political incubators mostly reside.
“Uh huh. What was the average real income of workers 40 years ago compared to now?”
That would be the important question, you are so right. Brilliant. Don’t know why I didn’t see it. That trickle down was working all the time.
Shorter working hours, more job security, better government services, fairer tax systems, better education systems, better pensions and social security, better medical services, less inequality, all those things are either irrelevant or bad.
“BK
Morrison will call a royal commission into the aged care sector. No doubt it will show, Oakden aside, the stark differences between the for profit and not for profit outfits.”
So the Muppets are showing that they have learned nuthin about how to use the power of incumbency from their experience of the Banking RC then?? 🙂 Who’d a thunk it??
The ‘It Must be a Slow News Day’ award for today goes to Rupert’s GG.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/afl-fan-caught-drink-driving-in-victoria/news-story/a9f141a9ee12d5bbb971363270b483cd
b
Yep. One of the Insiders panel mentioned what I regard to be an important fact: that just the presence of women in the Party Room was changing Labor culture.
IMO, you can compare and contrast Wong and Bishop.
The former is honoured and respected for her interventions on behalf of women by Labor peeps.
The latter is lambasted by ‘conservative’ peeps.
I am sure that Labor has a way to go yet in this matter.
But it is decades ahead of the Liberals.
Quoting how many jobs have been created over the life of (name your PM or Party) is a meaningless statistic unless put in context. Given our immigrant (& 457 visa) intake the surprise would be if very few or no jobs had been created.
As the population grows so do jobs figures (unless there is a recession); surprise!
I would prefer to see some charts and how each year’s growth compared relative to previous periods as a % of working population or some other meaningful measure.
p
LOL
An impressive reading!
They don’t say he barracked for.
The aged care sector is just another example of a system specifically designed to enrich maates of the current government at the expense of the general population.
The education (at all levels) system, the health system in general, and infrastructure spending, particularly in NSW are all obvious examples of the same principle.
On the Shorten interview on Insiders today. Seen a few comments that it was “soft” by Cassidy.
I didn’t get that impression. It certainly wasn’t “hard” but i thought pretty reasonable in tone and he did follow up on initial questions. I reckon what gave the impression of it being “soft” was that Shorten handled it well and stayed relaxed and reasonable throughout.
‘WeWantPaul says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:26 pm
“Uh huh. What was the average real income of workers 40 years ago compared to now?”
That would be the important question, you are so right. Brilliant. Don’t know why I didn’t see it. That trickle down was working all the time.
Shorter working hours, more job security, better government services, fairer tax systems, better education systems, better pensions and social security, better medical services, less inequality, all those things are either irrelevant or bad.’
You did say that you had evidence. I take it from your hasty retreat to the lowest form of wit that you do not have the evidence.
Tristo says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:07 pm
@boerwar
There are socialist or Marxist Europsceptics who believe the European Union is an capitalist entity which favors the bourgeoise over the proletariat.
FMD…The October Revolution occurred over a century ago and its winners were installed in power in Russia and later in Eastern Europe until the latter part of the last century. We can see now the neo-imperialists have resumed power in Moscow. They are striving for power in the UK, while the nativists have taken over in the US. The racists are marching in Europe in the East as well as the West. Are the left going to fall for the daffodils and the lilies of Bolshevik nostalgia…?
The Young Liberals are a hot bed of misogyny based on reports of their conduct over the years. It was only the other day there was a report of a sexist facebook rant by a Young Lib. And there have been other issues at universities with Young Libs.
i
Yep. My interpretation was that this was a discussion between a sane interviewer and the next prime minister of Australia.
No need for froth, histrionics, yelling, interruptions, snarks, sneers, lying, look at moi or happy clapping.
Just someone who is 100% across his brief when it comes to discussing policy.
“You did say that you had evidence. I take it from your hasty retreat to the lowest form of wit that you do not have the evidence.”
Mate if you can’t see the evidence of 40 years of trickle down economics, and you are resorting to an average incomes measure, you didn’t notice that the UK voted for Brexit and America voted for Trump (as just to of the more extreme examples of disturbing social trends) the all the evidence in the world isn’t going to shift your thinking.
The only really relevant debate is whether or not the elements of economic success, including the one you blithely referred to in your debate-over masterstroke, could have been divorced from the other policy elements so as to avoid delivering all the shit outcomes that have upset people, or whether the two were inextricably linked.
Good to see that Phelps is standing in Wentworth:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rise-above-bitterness-kerryn-phelps-to-run-as-independent-in-wentworth-20180916-p50420.html
It should turn out to be a three-way contest, and although she hasn’t decided on preferences, you’d think the lion’s share would go to Labor, she being dismissive of Sharma living in North Sydney.
Boerwar
His ‘fatal error’ may have been to support an out of state team, that or Collingwood.
There was a communist journalist being interviewed on the ABC the other day. Unfortunately I could not catch her name.
She referred to the invasion of Czechoslovakia by the Soviets as the game changer for communism in Europe.
That said, it would be interesting to see what Marx would make of the situation today. Would digital technology, AI and robotics, for example, cause him to change his views at all?
And what would he make of post-modernism which, IMO, basically undercuts many of the tenets upon which his very use of language are based?
After all, Marx and the Marxists were/are not prone to using inverted commas. They KNEW! They KNOW!
‘poroti says:
Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 12:39 pm
Boerwar
His ‘fatal error’ may have been to support an out of state team, that or Collingwood.’
*laughs*
America voted for Trump
No it didn’t. Trump lost the popular vote by a healthy margin.
Boerwar @ #1416 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:59 am
Who says that Corbyn will oppose international efforts to combat global warning? Brexit or not, the UK will still be able to join in international efforts. They’re not leaving the UN after all. They’ll also be allowed to play in UEFA tournaments and participate in Eurovision.
” One of the Insiders panel mentioned what I regard to be an important fact: that just the presence of women in the Party Room was changing Labor culture.”
Yup. Point i have seen made and agree with is that there has been an effort on the part of the ALP to get more gender equality in the actual structures, committees and leadership of the party. Over a reasonable time frame that has had an effect on pre-selections for winnable seats and so the ALP now has a higher proportion of women members of parliament. To the extent where there are now viable women leadership contenders on their front bench.
None of which are shoo ins if it becomes relevant down the track, they will have to go through the same blood on the floor ALP process as any other pollie would if they want to try for that. But, they are there, doing their jobs well, and building profiles as members of shadow cabinet. ALP team has a depth of talent, of both genders that the Libs dont have the capacity to have in place for years.
I think Shorten is doing well, but its good to know there are respectable replacements in place who can step up if he goes under a bus sometime.