BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor

BludgerTrack catches up with Newspoll, as the second round of post-coup polls proves hardly better for the Coalition than the first.

First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.

There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.

In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.

As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.

Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.

Full results featuring state breakdowns:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,744 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor”

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  2. “If Labor were serious about putting the Libs to the sword they’d have a different leader that wasn’t a drag on their vote. But they aren’t.

    Think of how many far right nutters would lose their seats with another 4% 0r 5% 2PP.”

    That’s crap. Shorten has been leader of the Labor party for five years in this period where the public has had a gutful of the Liberals leadership instability you suggest Labor throws away its biggest weapon of having a stable united opposition by changing leaders. You are kidding.

  3. fess

    of course they are a nest of vipers. I wont forget Morrison giving Turnbull a hug at a presser day before he became PM, saying wtte that this is my Prime Minister. What a fraud!!

  4. BK

    Morrison will call a royal commission into the aged care sector. No doubt it will show, Oakden aside, the stark differences between the for profit and not for profit outfits.

    Steve777

    The Aged Care Royal Commission will probably have terms looking into the role of unions. And Bill Shorten.

    The war on Industry Super Funds conducted by the Coalition and the Murdoch media fell a bit flat when the Banking Royal Commission showed how much better they had behaved in relation to their members than the retail for-profit Super Funds.

    From what I have seen and learned from people who have worked in that system, I will not be at all surprised if an Aged Care Royal Commission finds a not dissimilar pattern when looking at the for-profit and not-for-profit sectors of the Aged Care system. And Steve, yes I can’t wait for submissions from ‘interested parties’ seeking to blame the aged care sector’s woes on unions, and not the profitable conglomerates which run so many aged care facilities.

  9. Political Nightwatchman @ #1302 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:49 am

    “If Labor were serious about putting the Libs to the sword they’d have a different leader that wasn’t a drag on their vote. But they aren’t.

    Think of how many far right nutters would lose their seats with another 4% 0r 5% 2PP.”

    That’s crap. Shorten has been leader of the Labor party for five years in this period where the public has had a gutful of the Liberals leadership instability you suggest Labor throws away its biggest weapon of having a stable united opposition by changing leaders. You are kidding.

    Oh it’s too late now of course to change leader. Labor needed to heed the result of the rank and file vote for leader years ago.

  10. Rex Douglas says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 9:11 am
    imacca @ #990 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:04 am

    “Wentworth will never be a sustainable Labor seat.”

    Doesn’t need to be sustainable. A win, or at least a decent showing, by the ALP and a drop in the Lib primary in Wentworth has serious value in context of the coming election…which is the focus Rex.

    Tories are on the run. Time to hound them, run them down, put them to the sword and show no mercy. They have none.

    If Labor were serious about putting the Libs to the sword they’d have a different leader that wasn’t a drag on their vote. But they aren’t.

    Think of how many far right nutters would lose their seats with another 4% 0r 5% 2PP.

    Rex

    Only someone who is totally ignorant of how politics actually works could possibly believe that taking the heat off the Liberals’ leadership mess by having Labor do the same thing (again) is a good idea.

    For all I know you might be a very decent bloke. You probably are. But let’s face it. Your constant obsessing over Bill Shorten at a time when Labor is about to wipe the floor with Liberals at the next election is just making you look like a real dill.

  11. “Just because you aren’t able to debate”

    No one can debate articles of faith without a common grounding in the faith, and even then it is problematic. But yeah there isn’t anyone who could shake your faith, and given its tenuous connection to a reality anyone else here shares there isn’t a lot of point.

  12. The strength and depth of any RC will all depend on what the terms of references are. If you are ever going to get the full picture then everything has to be looked at……everything.
    I have doubts Morrison and his party is up to it ….we will see.

  13. Rex Douglas @ #1310 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:55 am

    Political Nightwatchman @ #1302 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:49 am

    “If Labor were serious about putting the Libs to the sword they’d have a different leader that wasn’t a drag on their vote. But they aren’t.

    Think of how many far right nutters would lose their seats with another 4% 0r 5% 2PP.”

    That’s crap. Shorten has been leader of the Labor party for five years in this period where the public has had a gutful of the Liberals leadership instability you suggest Labor throws away its biggest weapon of having a stable united opposition by changing leaders. You are kidding.

    Oh it’s too late now of course to change leader. Labor needed to heed the result of the rank and file vote for leader years ago.

    To do so would involve breaking the process rules.

    Why have rules if you’re not going to adhere to them? 🙂

  15. “The strength and depth of any RC will all depend on what the terms of references are. If you are ever going to get the full picture then everything has to be looked at……everything.
    I have doubts Morrison and his party is up to it ….we will see.”

    Expect a Royal Commission into how private business can play a bigger role in aged health care and increase their profits significantly.

  18. Confession – when reality veers across the centre line and bears down on the CPG like a truck laden with dynamite, they can usually be relied upon to wake up. It’s no big trick.

  20. WeWantPaul @ #1315 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 10:00 am

    “The strength and depth of any RC will all depend on what the terms of references are. If you are ever going to get the full picture then everything has to be looked at……everything.
    I have doubts Morrison and his party is up to it ….we will see.”

    Expect a Royal Commission into how private business can play a bigger role in aged health care and increase their profits significantly.

    I hope they remember to call for a submission from Bronwyn “kerosene” Bishop …

    http://www.bmartin.cc/dissent/documents/health/nh_bronwynb_scandals.html

  21. @WWP….Morrison will have do this correctly or the blowback will enormous…al la Bank RC. He can’t afford to fudge it or he will get called out on it.
    Then again this is the Libs we are talking about.

  22. Boerwar @ #1301 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    Rex pulled his head in on his LibBot Kill Bill stuff when Bludgers refused to respond to him.
    He is at it again.
    Don’t reward him with a bite, peeps.
    It just encourages him.

    Boerwar is correct. The experiment worked a treat. The LibBot goes away when ignored. Better still, just block him. What value does he actually bring to the debate? Glib slogans, viz, ‘Offshore torture camps, $100B submarines, LibLab same same’, does not a debate contribute to. It’s all so tiresomely predictable and has been canvassed ad exhaustium!

  23. Jenauthor:

    I can actually see Morrison seriously thinking about accepting Shorten’s offer on the ICAC thing. It would be something he could own and something that makes him look prime ministerial – working across the aisle with Labor on something that would appeal to voters.

  24. sonar @ #1323 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 10:05 am

    @WWP….Morrison will have do this correctly or the blowback will enormous…al la Bank RC. He can’t afford to fudge it or he will get called out on it.
    Then again this is the Libs we are talking about.

    He’s already started making the fudge, as I understand it from reading the article announcing the Aged Care RC this morning. Retirement Villages are not being included. That could only be because they are a Liberal Party cash cow, both for the owners, Liberal Mates, and the party itself, as vote milch cows, as so many of them are placed off limits to the Labor Party for campaigning purposes…as they are owned by Liberal Mates. The Liberal Party don’t want to upset that apple cart.

  26. Karen Middleton writes such factual, intelligently analysed articles in SatPaper that I was very disappointed when she was complimentary about Morrison doing a good job, etc.

  27. The Insiders. Hmmm. What a stunning demolition of this Government’s behaviour, especially from two commentators who’ve done more than a fair share of supporting the Coalition in the last few years. Even the likes of rabid Conservatives like Bolt and Jones won’t say much in its support.
    And as for Shorten- calm,measured,up front and reasonable. Compare evasive, dodgy, (why?) Morrison.
    Mene,mene….

  31. Cat

    I didn’t see that.

    Retirement Villages are possibly the biggest scam of the lot – people sign dubious contracts and believe they are buying an “asset” with their unit. Then their health declines and they need to go to an actual aged care facility. Suddenly they find that their so-called “asset” is actually very hard to sell, and the process has various penalties and charges associated with it.

    Hopefully this aspect blows up, and they are forced to include them. Labor should certainly push hard for this. Because while there are obviously health care (or lack of it) aspects to the investigation of aged care facilities, there are also very dubious financial transactions, and I would think that the Retirement Village sector is an even bigger example of these.

  32. Rex is a dishonest debater. On occasions, I’ve got him to admit that an opinion of his was wrong, only to have him repeat the same thing a few days later. So either he was unable to defend his original stance, or he has the attention span of a goldfish, or he lied.

  33. Expect a Royal Commission into how private business can play a bigger role in aged health care and increase their profits significantly.

    … like calling for “innovative” financial instruments to fund aged care, aka reverse mortgages, aka mortgage loan secured over the person’s residential property?

  34. zoomster @ #1333 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 7:23 am

    Rex is a dishonest debater. On occasions, I’ve got him to admit that an opinion of his was wrong, only to have him repeat the same thing a few days later. So either he was unable to defend his original stance, or he has the attention span of a goldfish, or he lied.

    Just highlights his Liberal roots! 🙂

  37. Antonbruckner11 @ #1335 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 10:28 am

    Zoomster – Rex doesn’t give a s … about logic. He just likes pulling your tail, and does so brilliantly.

    Exactly. It’s a Trumpian form of the Gish Gallop. What you say has no substantive basis in fact, as can be concusively proved. However, the time you waste doing so is time the troll has distracted you for THEIR benefit.

  38. Good point made by Shorten about the cutting of funds for dementia care.
    I won’t name names, but I seem to remember that at least one of the developers of aged care facilities is a shyster, ripping off funds.

    Aged Care is the newest opportunity to make a packet, of course. This is an example of the dangers of privatisation for services for the vulnerable.

  41. Aged Care is the newest opportunity to make a packet, of course. This is an example of the dangers of privatisation for services for the vulnerable.

    Didn’t we see the same thing happen with child care? Increasing private services and decreasing standards of care?

  42. Shorten should support the aged care RC and call for it to cover the retirement village sector. And say that if Morrison doesn’t he will in the event of Labor forming government.

  43. Michael West‏ @MichaelWestBiz · 5m5 minutes ago

    Aged Care Royal Commission should include retirement villages – RVs are often fused with nursing homes, same operators, care issues, suss financial practices https://bit.ly/2tE58yJ #Aveo #LendLease

  47. “… like calling for “innovative” financial instruments to fund aged care, aka reverse mortgages, aka mortgage loan secured over the person’s residential property?”

    excellent point, any serious improvement to the aged care sector is going to need a lot of financial institution input

  48. “… like calling for “innovative” financial instruments to fund aged care, aka reverse mortgages, aka mortgage loan secured over the person’s residential property?”

    excellent point, any serious improvement to the aged care sector is going to need a lot of financial institution input

  50. There’s an excellent opportunity for an independent candidate to run in Warringah against Abbott. He clearly does not have the undivided support of local Liberals and would have to be vulnerable against a well-organised small-l independent Lib.

    Hopefully someone will come forward. Australian politics would be very well served if Abbott were to be defeated before he does any more harm.

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