First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.
There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.
In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.
As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.
Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.
Full results featuring state breakdowns:
Oh dear. Wyatt caught out by the RC, having dismissed Shorten’s claims about the sector not that long ago.
Hmmmmm…was it a good idea to announce the Aged Care RC on a morning when Bill Shorten is doing an interview on Insiders?? 🙂
Media Adviser FAIL think I……..
Ken Wyatt when Bill Shorten called Aged Care a national crisis:
“Aged Care fear-mongering bordering on Elder Abuse.”
Hmm.
If Labor wins Wentworth they can refer Dutton to the HC, and force an early election. Huge difference.
imacca @ #990 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:04 am
If Labor were serious about putting the Libs to the sword they’d have a different leader that wasn’t a drag on their vote. But they aren’t.
Think of how many far right nutters would lose their seats with another 4% 0r 5% 2PP.
Abbott supported 46-38 with 9 abstaining. A resounding 49% voted for Abbott, 41% for the Empty Chair, 10% rather not say.
Just staggering that the Abbott local branch would not reveal the voting figures. What a joke. That’s not a political party, it’s a conspiracy. But it looks like 46 people! decided that Tones gets to continue his political career and use the Liberal brand. Another joke.
lizzie @ #1182 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 7:13 am
This is the saddest excuse for a newspaper article I have had the misfortune to read in months. I think the author can probably see the writing on the wall and is desperately trying to save his job. Won’t work, buddy. Try reporting news instead 🙁
Re Wentworth by-election, after Bob Hawke was turfed, a strong independent Phil Cleary won Hawke’s normally safe Labor seat of Wills. Will history repeat?
steve777:
They have to announce the numbers from Warringah.
“News Limited is not the enemy. To attack Murdoch papers is to disrespect millions of Australians who get their news fix through those papers, TV and internet outlets. It is a form of intellectual snobbery from those who aren’t that smart.”
News Limited, the local face of fox is an enemy of democracy and decency. It is a racist propaganda outfit and it is an insult to the intelligence of the many millions more Australians who don’t like even touching the steaming piles of evil that comes out of it, to suggest it is an anyway real journalism.
WeWantPaul @ #1251 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:07 am
Just off the top of my head.
Who exposed Barnaby as a Kiwi?
Fairfax
Who continues to expose the conditions a plight of asylum sealers?
The Guardian
You are easily distracted. 🙂
Antonbruckner11 @ #1001 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:14 am
Typical Abbott hypocrisy campaigning on democratic preselections for years then refusing to disclose voting numbers at his own preselection.
“They have to announce the numbers from Warringah.”
I was going on the basis of leaked numbers just given on Insiders and it struck me that Abbott didn’t even have majority support. On numbers given, 46/93.
Rex Douglas @ #1257 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:11 am
You really need to have a word with your handlers, their message hasn’t cut through and it became tired and boring a long time ago. 🙂
“Without a scintalla of sexism, there’s a fair corpus of evidence to support the premise that women prefer the male voice:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WlkbiI8Ja0”
I took my mum to see Placido in concert at the old Sydney Entetainment Centre some 25 years ago.
When listening to the 3 tenors it was quite clear to me that he was a cut above the other two …
Shorten doing a good, workmanlike performance on Insiders today.
Shorten certainly sounds like he’s across the aged care issues.
WeWantPaul @ #1005 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:16 am
Murdoch news division business model is to divide society and promote conflict.
Murdoch is a deadly cancer on a harmonious society.
Steve777:
Yes, so much for Abbott’s claim he won 70% of the vote.
This is quite brillant by Jon Kudelka:
“The thing with Malcolm is that even though you know he is going to be disappointing , he still manages to disappoint, which is quite something.”
Steve777 @ #1266 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:19 am
So why couldn’t an alternate candidate be found?
It seems the Muppets are entrenched right throughout the Party! 🙂
“The sensible part of the Liberal party” says Shorten.
Does it exist?
“Shorten certainly sounds like he’s across the aged care issues.”
Is he wot!! 🙂 Getting in before the actual announcement and starting to guide the agenda on this. 🙂
Libs really need to get some basic, media managment professionalism into their party.
Though that said i reckon what we are seeing from Shorten is the result of LOTS of hands on , on the ground practice with meeting people and doing the largely unscripted Town Hall thing.
And, he has ACTUAL policy and governance direction to discuss.
Why is Bill dodging Barrie’s questions re Adani ?
The AFL is mighty pleased. A preliminary final with Collingwood playing Richmond.
Melbourne town is abuzz.
Aged care is one of the top issues of concern raised at every Town hall Shorten does.
Cheers
Bill shorten doing excellently
Cross court volley game set match to Bill
Very soft Barrie interview of Bill Shorten
Confessions @ #1017 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:26 am
There are numerous Lib-Lab policy positions. Offshore torture camps, $100B submarines for example. Senseless policies.
“You are easily distracted. ”
Oh so you are of the ‘media is good’ tribe. I
But you make a great point it isn’t like there were lists readily available since before Abbott became PM listing dozens of potential dual citizens, it was definitely the main stream media that was at the front of protecting our democracy and they did not at any point swallow every single lie the Govt told to weather the storm.
You are very very smart and very very observant, I tips me hat to you, a genius I say.
shellbell 814am
They better Shellbell working away at getting another family evacuated from Nauru while I bemoan disappointing sports scores.
Thank you
imacca:
Yes the comparison policy-wise between Labor and the Liberals is stark.
The Government imagines the ABC to be its enemy and treats it accordingly. But Newscorp is an actual enemy of Labor and should be treated as such by a Labor Government consistent with the law.
“Aged care is one of the top issues of concern raised at every Town hall Shorten does.”
So, if thats the case the Libs would have to know. FFS, monitoring those meetings and at least noting whats being brought up should be practical politics 101. Get some mileage out of you enemies effort.
Libs seem to be starting their weekly clusterfwark sunday rather than monday this week by gifting the ALP an issue they are well ready to run on.
“The AFL is mighty pleased. A preliminary final with Collingwood playing Richmond.
Melbourne town is abuzz.”
There is a huge risk that Melb do over West Coast here next Saturday, but in the hope West Coast prevail it would be really really good if Collingwood and Richmond got very very hard, half kill each other would be helpful.
Bill Shorten refreshingly frank and looking genuine and sincere after all the govt’s gobbleygook and bullshit.
“Why is Bill dodging Barrie’s questions re Adani ?”
Ummm. Because he won’t know the exact state of that particular Augean Stable until he gets hold of the Red Book upon assuming office…
doyley @ #1277 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:28 am
Three of the most inept & very likely corrupt industries in Australia, all of which are infested with Liberals and their mates:
Child Care
Jobs Network
Aged Care
The Liberals slogan: “Exploiting Australians from cradle to grave”
aged care is a primary concern amongst my friends and family. the 50 year old demographic is sandwiched between having young offspring that they are still responsible for and ageing parents.
The decision to put a family member into care is a very difficult one. Usually, it happens when the dementia sets in, and it is too unsafe to have them at home or even live with family. The home needs to be sold and put up as a bond for placement into the facility.
the adequate care received by the “resident”, can vary from facility.
There definitely needs to be more oversight and accountability.
Rex Douglas @ #1281 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:30 am
I’m glad to see you getting your “same-same” mojo back, Rex.
Please try not to be too disappointed when Bill Shorten becomes the next PM of Australia (assuming the Libs don’t install another one in the interim, of course).
I think David Crowe on Insiders is right to say the Liberals are going to be a generation behind in terms of gender equality.
WWP
I have no favourite as to who I would like to win the GF. So far the big winners are the AFL. lol!
Player One @ #1293 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 6:36 am
That’s surely a bit presumptive in the present climate! 🙂
Victoria @ #1291 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 9:35 am
Very fortunate to have numerous top class aged care facilities in my local community.
Just watched Insiders. I think Shorten is on the right track.
Woops P1,
I was presumptive in failing to read your brackets! 🙂
Rex pulled his head in on his LibBot Kill Bill stuff when Bludgers refused to respond to him.
He is at it again.
Don’t reward him with a bite, peeps.
It just encourages him.
“Very soft Barrie interview of Bill Shorten”
Cassidy probably realises that he isn’t going to be protected by the Libs after the middle of 2019.