BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor

BludgerTrack catches up with Newspoll, as the second round of post-coup polls proves hardly better for the Coalition than the first.

First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.

There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.

In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.

As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.

Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.

Full results featuring state breakdowns:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,744 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor”

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  1. steve davis

    Ages back when Johnny Howard was banging on about ‘economic refugees’ and keeping them out I wondered if he included the hordes of ‘economic refugees’ that fled Maggie T’s Ingurland 🙂

  2. “Shorten showed this morning that an interviewee can make an interview look “soft” simply by answering questions and being honest.”

    Ahhhh….that explains why the Muppets cant do that….Shorten is and they have to differentiate themselves. Wot a cunning plan!!! 🙂

  3. LOL! Because British industry has done so well while the UK has been part of the EU!

    Basically…..yes….in autos, aerospace, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, IT, food manufactures…all kinds of sectors are deeply integrated with EU manufacturing and markets…

    The entire base is about to be dismantled.

  4. Ven:

    Thanks for that, which wasn’t reported in the Fairfax article but was in the Guardian…

    Anyway, good news for progressives in that she urges her supporters to put the Tories last.

    I’ve also subsequently posted a link that records Labor’s 2PP in Wentworth as 53.

  5. Brexit is a project in national self-mutilation, instigated by reactionaries for nostalgic and ideological reasons. It is absolutely idiotic.

  6. I am trying to work out how Morrison’s philosophy will deal with recommendations on the aged.
    Since he’s allowed funds for caring to be cut already, I’m assuming he won’t simply reverse the cuts. He’ll have to find reasons for something different.

    Send them home for their family to look after them?

    …thinks…

    No. I’m stuck. Anyone else got any ideas?

  7. @ Poroti: How’s Labour to blame for this? A lot of the deindustrialisation processes are organic; specific Governments claim responsibility when they go well, but in reality have f***-all to do with it.

  8. As with manufacturing, which is EU-facing, likewise with export-oriented services, especially in banking, insurance and legal services. The UK is on the cusp of obliterating competitive advantages that have been centuries in the making.

    They will impoverish themselves.

  9. It would be very difficult to have an aged care RC properly look only at nursing homes without considering retirement villages and other types of intermediate care.

    For example, I know of two (not-for-profit) examples that include a three tier level of accommodation. Residents may progress through each of these levels according to their needs and to include only the nursing home portion in a RC neglects other parts of what is essentially an integrated business.

    1. Villas or units purchased by occupants with no care provided, except for an emergency alarm button to summon help if needed;

    2. Accommodation in one’s own room for persons with moderate care requirements, with meals provided and access to care if needed; and

    3. Nursing home accommodation.

  10. briefly

    The UK is on the cusp of obliterating competitive advantages that have been centuries in the making.

    The tax evasion community will be devastated.

  11. The share of the labour force committed to manufacturing has been declining for 70 years. This is hardly surprising as there were – and still are – plenty of opportunities for productivity gains in industrial processes. The result of these gains is higher real wages both in nanufacturing itself and in the non-industrial sector, where industrial products are exchanged and consumed.

  12. Trump Finally Makes a Friend

    The president may be shunned nearly everywhere but at the bottom of the world he has finally found a loyal mate.

    President Trump has admitted he feels “amazingly alone” in the midst of all his scraps with allies and snarls with undermining advisers.

    But there is someone — at the very bottom of the world in the land of Mad Max — who wants to play ball with the Mad King. In the Trump era, we can rewrite the maxim to be: If you want a friend in politics, get an Aussie.

    “I think we both get it,” Australia’s new prime minister, Scott Morrison, cheerily told me in his office in Parliament House. Even though Australia did not get rocked by a recession like the U.S. did, Morrison says some people feel forgotten, left off the globalism gravy train. “And that’s what we get. The president gets that. I get it.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/15/opinion/columnists/trump-finally-makes-a-friend.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

  13. Sportsbet on Wentworth since Phelps announced candidacy – Phelps closing in on Sharma:

    Dave Sharma (Liberal) 1.70
    Kerryn Phelps (Independent) 2.20
    Tim Murray (Labor) 7.00
    Angela Vithoulkas (Independent) 12.00
    Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 16.00
    Licia Heath (Independent) 31.00
    David Barrow (Independent) 71.00
    Ben Forsyth (Derryn Hinch’s Justice) 81.00
    Andrea Leong (Science Party) 101.00
    Sam Gunning (Liberal Democratic Party) 251.00
    Shayne Higson (Voluntary Euthanasia) 501.00

  14. Employment in agriculture has been declining for 300 years. The result has been steady declines in the price of food, which has contributed to rising real wages in the non-agricultural sector.

    Very few- apart from the likes of BA Santamaria and the Front National in France – lament this change.

    Rising real wages almost always implies rising labour productivity, which implies declines in labour utilisation in specific sectors.

    You can choose – higher wages and economic mobility, or no mobility and fixed wages.

  15. poroti:

    [‘Manufacturing went on shrinking under New Labour; the sector’s workforce halved from 4.5 million to 2.5 million between 1997 and 2010.’]

    That’s huge, though more attributable to the economic rise of China, other Eastern countries, than N.L.

    I mean, you can go to, say, Target and buy a toaster for $8, an electric jug for $6. There’s no way Western manufacuturers can compete. And that’s why Myer and David Jones are fast becoming dinosaurs. How they’ve survived until now is a mystery to me, albeit anchor lessees receive a substantial rent discount under a retail shop lease.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-12/myer-full-year-results-2018/10236074

  16. i Think the greatest single threat to real wages is climate change.

    In a context of radical disruption to the climate, investment will be repressed – investment of all kinds – and this will surely drive down incomes. As incomes are divided between wages, savings and profits, all of these channels will face restriction. The most likely response will be efforts to drive up savings rates, which will intensify wage destruction.

  17. citizen:

    Phelps ain’t that far behind Sharma.

    Now that she’s confirmed her candidature, coupled with her urging to put the Tories last, Murray’s worth more than a small wager.

  18. @citizen

    I am betting on Phelps to win, the Wentworth by-election will be like the Wagga Wagga. There is definitely an anti-Liberal mood in the electorate, however not a pro-Labor one.

    All Phelps would need out-poll Labor and win on preferences. The Labor at the moment is polling in the mid to high 20’s on the primary vote.

    @boerwar

    The Marxist rhetoric aside especially from shadow Chancellor John McDonnell. Labour’s last election manifesto if anything was a quite restrained, they are only advocating nationalizing railways, electricity, water and the postal service. A return to what Britain’s economy was before Maggie Thatcher could be a possibly. The view among British people of Maggie Thatcher’s government is very mixed.

  19. Like Trump Brexit is a really bad idea, but the Brits need to work out what is going wrong, and like Trump with the yanks while Brexit is a really bad idea it may well help the Brits work out what is going so wrong and actually start to make decisions to get it right. Obviously guillotines may be needed if it isn’t solved quickly enough.

  20. The chain sawing was a big success although I need to either get a new chain or work out how a handier person sharpens a chainsaw, I remember my grandfather doing it but I paid no attention to how. Foolish. Now to the tip.

  21. The chain sawing was a big success although I need to either get a new chain or work out how a handier person sharpens a chainsaw, I remember my grandfather doing it but I paid no attention to how. Foolish. Now to the tip.

  22. @Pseudo Cud Chewer

    Agreed Labor’s odds are a bit high, I predict that it will be a close contest when it comes to the Primary vote between Phelps and Tim Murray.

    Come election day the Coalition’s primary vote will collapse, probably below 30%. However Labor’s primary vote will not go up by much, somewhere in the high 30’s probably. The bulk of that primary vote collapse will go to right-wing populist parties and independents.

  23. Aunt Mavis

    It is noteworthy that Wentworth is considerable more marginal for the Liberals than the ultra-safe Labor seat of Wills. Without Turnbull the Liberal margin in 2016 would have been around 10%, maybe less. I believe it would have been a close contest in 2007 if Turnbull had not been the sitting member.

  24. WeWantPaul @ #1531 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 2:48 pm

    The chain sawing was a big success although I need to either get a new chain or work out how a handier person sharpens a chainsaw, I remember my grandfather doing it but I paid no attention to how. Foolish. Now to the tip.

    You need a round file and a guide. Buy them from the chainsaw supplier. It is easy but very, very boring.

  25. I dont think the Brexit vote was clear cut enough majority to go ahead with all this shit.It would have only needed 850,000 out of 33,000,000 people to change their vote and the remain vote would have won.?Is /Was it really worth it to appease just 850,000 out of 65,000,000 people living in the UK to go through this massive upheaval in the economy.I dont really think so.

  26. @steve davis

    Brexit was extremely divisive the ‘leave’ supporters were surprised by the results. The British government should have put in a majority among all eligible voters, not those who turned out to vote for the referendum. I believe David Cameron decided to go ahead with a referendum to prevent the Conservative Party being destroyed by division over the European Union.

  27. Holy shit we just had an earthquake here! The whole house shook – very unsettling.

    There have been earthquakes during last week, but further west near Walpole.

  28. steve davis @ #1536 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 2:54 pm

    I dont think the Brexit vote was clear cut enough majority to go ahead with all this shit.It would have only needed 850,000 out of 33,000,000 people to change their vote and the remain vote would have won.?Is /Was it really worth it to appease just 850,000 out of 65,000,000 people living in the UK to go through this massive upheaval in the economy.I dont really think so.

    Indeed. Democracy should only be respected when the outcome is the one that I wanted anyway.

  29. briefly:

    [‘I think the greatest single threat to real wages is climate change.’]

    Not only that but also insurance. It’s my view that actuaries will have the final say. I’d go so far as to suggest that attaining insurance will become a luxury. It’s some time off, but I’m sure it will happen.

  30. P1
    When I was over there in August prices had risen because of uncertainty and the people were sick and tired of hearing about Brexit.

  31. Sohar @ #1370 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 8:13 am

    Re the Guardian. It was the environment reporter, Lisa Cox, that pushed the Turnbull’s $444m ‘gift’ to his mates at the GBRF, not Murphy and her political bureau who tried to shut it down, as she did Turnbull’s cover up of Barnabygate.

    Where was there any attempt by Murphy to close this story down.

    She was always completely open that Cox was pursuing the story and as such she would leave the main reporting to Cox.

    You become more and more deluded by the second!

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