BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor

BludgerTrack catches up with Newspoll, as the second round of post-coup polls proves hardly better for the Coalition than the first.

First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.

There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.

In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.

As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.

Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.

Full results featuring state breakdowns:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,744 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor”

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  6. Confessions:

    [‘Albany WA.’]

    I spent two weeks there in September ’67, when whaling was still acceptable. In fact, I boarded a whaling boat but was so seasick that the skipper ordered a return to shore. To say he was pissed off is to understate the matter. Maybe I saved a few whales?

  7. It tells you the estimated distance you could feel the tremor from it. Click on yellow dot and down the bottom on the right where it says “Show Felt”

  8. briefly @ #1515 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 12:10 pm

    The result of these gains is higher real wages both in nanufacturing itself and in the non-industrial sector, where industrial products are exchanged and consumed.

    So Labor is wasting its time campaigning on reversing stagnant and falling wages then. We shouldn’t worry then about what party we vote for because real wages have been increasing.

    Geez, for a supposed Labor campaigner you sure are useless at selling Labor policies.

  14. [‘Geez, for a supposed Labor campaigner you’re sure as useless at selling Labor policies.’]

    (Forgive me for being pedantic)

    Perhaps, Dan, you should lower your turgidity. After all, this is a caring, sharing site?

  15. Matt @ #1549 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 3:10 pm

    Earthquakes? In WA?!

    When are we living…the End Times? (Please don’t assume I’m being serious :P)

    You appear to have forgotten the Meckering earthquake. Also, when I was living in Leederville in Perth we had an earthquake and it was strong enough to wake us from a deep sleep. Though, having leadlight windows, which rattle easily, probably contributed to the effect. The low roar is what gives them away though. Freaky!

  16. There are on average 100 earthquakes of magnitude 3.0 or more in Australia each year. Earthquakes above magnitude 5.5, such as the 5.6 magnitude event in Newcastle in 1989, occur on average every two years. About every eight years, there is a potentially damaging earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or more.
    Wikipedia.

  17. The low roar is what gives them away though.

    I actually thought it was thunder, as there are some clouds coming over. But it went on for too long to be thunder. Then the house started shaking and I knew it was a quake.

  19. Walpole Visitors Centre volunteer Colin Steele said the earthquake was heralded by a rumbling that sounded like thunder and caused buildings to shake “mildly”.

    It comes after two earthquakes were felt in the Great Southern earlier this week.

    A magnitude 3.5 earthquake shook the ocean floor off Albany on Wednesday night. It started about 7.45pm and occurred about 10km below the ocean surface, about 150km off the coast.

    Another 3.4 earthquake struck Walpole about 6.15pm on Thursday that occurred at a depth of 10km, less than 100km north of the town.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/magnitude-56-earthquake-hits-walpole-in-was-great-southern-ng-b88962187z

  20. C@t:

    We’ve had earthquakes before but nothing like this one. The last one which was last year just felt like a ripple underfoot. We were eating dinner and it felt as if a wave gently rolled underneath the house. No roars and no shaking.

  21. There are heaps of stunning Ozzie colloquialisms, but for me the best of the best is:

    “Youse”.

    My dear, late mother-in-law, when describing her daughter-in-law’s family, oft said: “Youse are all no good dole bludgers.” Old Norma always called a spade a spade.

  25. The backlash against Labor supporting the TPP has already begun.

    Right now, the agents of secretive, massive corporations are circling Canberra.

    They’re watching keenly as Parliament paves the way for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that will:
    Grant multinational corporations the power to sue us when good public policy makes them less profitable
    Block the government from properly regulating service industries, like banking1
    Ensnare vulnerable people in exploitative work for as little as $5 an hour2
    And the Labor Party is about to cave in. Despite making previous commitments to renegotiate any trade deal that allows companies to sue the government, this week the ALP caucus agreed to waive through this anti-democratic trade law.3

    It’s not good enough.

    Labor’s support of this bill defies ordinary people, the Senate Crossbench, and their own stated opposition to trade deals like the TPP.4

    The list of Senators taking a stand is long: The Centre Alliance, The Greens, and certain independents are uniting against the trade deal that Greens Senator Peter Whish-Wilson went as far as to call “an assault on democracy”.5

    They have the numbers. If they wanted to, they could stand up for workers and kill this trade deal today.

    So what we need now is a massive public outcry: a promise to hold Labor to account for this political hypocrisy. We won’t give up until the TPP is dead, so they can put it down now — or face the backlash from everyday people until they do.

    CLICK HERE: Demand your local Labor representative kills the TPP for good!

    The ALP is taking a chance on a deal forged in secret by massive corporations, and our access to democracy is at stake.

    We’ve seen what happens when trade deals like the TPP are ratified. Veolia – a massive French-owned waste company – sued Egypt for raising their national minimum wage.6 Meanwhile, closer to home, tobacco companies had the gall to sue us by arguing our world-first plain packaging laws damaged their ability to profit from addiction.

    The TPP also circumvents local labour-market testing. It means businesses don’t have to hire from well-regulated labour markets, and helps corporations increase their reliance on vulnerable workers. It would encourage businesses to weaponise visa controls to trap workers in exploitative condition.

    The stakes are too high. This bad deal doesn’t need to be fixed later, it needs to be stopped now.

    Tell the Labor Party there’s no time to lose – shut down the TPP.

    Shutting down the TPP would help thwart the growing power that corporate profits have over our democracy and the out-of-control deregulation of global markets. It would be a powerful reminder that it is never acceptable to exploit a worker, no matter where they work, or where they come from.

    It’s why so many of us have fought against it for so long. And at this final juncture, we mustn’t look on in silence as Labor gambles with our best chance yet to put the TPP down for good.

    Yours in hope and solidarity,

    Ruby, Ed, Patrick, and Ezreena, for the GetUp team

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/tpp/1809-tpp-11-senator-contact-ask/tell-labor-shut-down-the-tpp

    A fucking bonehead idea by Labor that will cost them if they vote for it in the Senate.

    The only winner from this will be Rex. Finally his “Lib/Lab = same/same” mantra will be correct.

  26. Dan Gulberry @ #1575 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:04 pm

    The backlash against Labor supporting the TPP has already begun.

    Right now, the agents of secretive, massive corporations are circling Canberra.

    They’re watching keenly as Parliament paves the way for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that will:
    Grant multinational corporations the power to sue us when good public policy makes them less profitable
    Block the government from properly regulating service industries, like banking1
    Ensnare vulnerable people in exploitative work for as little as $5 an hour2
    And the Labor Party is about to cave in. Despite making previous commitments to renegotiate any trade deal that allows companies to sue the government, this week the ALP caucus agreed to waive through this anti-democratic trade law.3

    It’s not good enough.

    Labor’s support of this bill defies ordinary people, the Senate Crossbench, and their own stated opposition to trade deals like the TPP.4

    The list of Senators taking a stand is long: The Centre Alliance, The Greens, and certain independents are uniting against the trade deal that Greens Senator Peter Whish-Wilson went as far as to call “an assault on democracy”.5

    They have the numbers. If they wanted to, they could stand up for workers and kill this trade deal today.

    So what we need now is a massive public outcry: a promise to hold Labor to account for this political hypocrisy. We won’t give up until the TPP is dead, so they can put it down now — or face the backlash from everyday people until they do.

    CLICK HERE: Demand your local Labor representative kills the TPP for good!

    The ALP is taking a chance on a deal forged in secret by massive corporations, and our access to democracy is at stake.

    We’ve seen what happens when trade deals like the TPP are ratified. Veolia – a massive French-owned waste company – sued Egypt for raising their national minimum wage.6 Meanwhile, closer to home, tobacco companies had the gall to sue us by arguing our world-first plain packaging laws damaged their ability to profit from addiction.

    The TPP also circumvents local labour-market testing. It means businesses don’t have to hire from well-regulated labour markets, and helps corporations increase their reliance on vulnerable workers. It would encourage businesses to weaponise visa controls to trap workers in exploitative condition.

    The stakes are too high. This bad deal doesn’t need to be fixed later, it needs to be stopped now.

    Tell the Labor Party there’s no time to lose – shut down the TPP.

    Shutting down the TPP would help thwart the growing power that corporate profits have over our democracy and the out-of-control deregulation of global markets. It would be a powerful reminder that it is never acceptable to exploit a worker, no matter where they work, or where they come from.

    It’s why so many of us have fought against it for so long. And at this final juncture, we mustn’t look on in silence as Labor gambles with our best chance yet to put the TPP down for good.

    Yours in hope and solidarity,

    Ruby, Ed, Patrick, and Ezreena, for the GetUp team

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/tpp/1809-tpp-11-senator-contact-ask/tell-labor-shut-down-the-tpp

    A fucking bonehead idea by Labor that will cost them if they vote for it in the Senate.

    The only winner from this will be Rex. Finally his “Lib/Lab = same/same” mantra will be correct.

    What do you mean ‘finally’ ?

  30. IIRC there was a period when Aged Care facilities were put to tender – and it was well known that the successful bidders were Coalition supporters rewarded with the Tender by a Queensland Senator whose name escapes me but he subsequently left politics in disgrace – but may have remained the President if the Party in Queensland

    With Child Care we had ABC Learning, a Coalition donor where Anthony was in the Board

    And, of course, Dutton is now invested into Child Care facilities – so former ABC Learning facilities?

    ABC Learning went belly up

    Privatisations have been to the benefit of Coalition mates

  32. Player One @ #1580 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 1:25 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #1575 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:04 pm

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/tpp/1809-tpp-11-senator-contact-ask/tell-labor-shut-down-the-tpp

    A fucking bonehead idea by Labor that will cost them if they vote for it in the Senate.

    Agreed. And petition signed.

    If any of the ALP rusted-ons here have any justification for this decision to support the TPP, I’d be interested in hearing what it is.

    On Insiders this morning Shorten cited the example of New Zealand negotiating out of certain conditions when the new Government came in and said Labor’s attitude was to do the same sort of thing.

    He specifically cited access to our jobs market as something they would want to remove.

  33. Observer

    ABC Learning ? Dutto’s conflict of interest probs go way back.

    Dutton denies conflict with ABC Learning interest
    17 Jun 2007
    The Federal Opposition has accused him of profiting personally from policy decisions.

    But Mr Dutton to says his commercial lease agreement with ABC Learning Centres is above board and in no way linked to his role as Assistant Treasurer.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2007-06-17/dutton-denies-conflict-with-abc-learning-interest/71246

  34. @Barney: Given how little of the TPP actually involves trade as such, what’s left once you’ve removed the ISDS provisions and labour market access?

  35. Barney in Go Dau @ #1582 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    On Insiders this morning Shorten cited the example of New Zealand negotiating out of certain conditions when the new Government came in and said Labor’s attitude was to do the same sort of thing.

    He specifically cited access to our jobs market as something they would want to remove.

    But you have to negotiate things like this before you agree to sign 🙁

  38. Player One @ #1586 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 1:39 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1582 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    On Insiders this morning Shorten cited the example of New Zealand negotiating out of certain conditions when the new Government came in and said Labor’s attitude was to do the same sort of thing.

    He specifically cited access to our jobs market as something they would want to remove.

    But you have to negotiate things like this before you agree to sign 🙁

    Apparently New Zealand have been able to do otherwise, so it doesn’t appear so.

  39. As a “rusted on labor voter” I fully support the TPP. As I have noted previously I no longer live “Down Under” but have worked in the Asia Pacific region for nearly a decade now.

    Apart from the Colour of my white skin leading to discrimination amongst the locals, my Australian Passport means I cannot even work in certain roles or use the skills I have developed. The TPP – and believe me I have followed this more closely than most – will allow those skills to be recognized and even more importantly those Aussie products which are sort after in these markets far greater access. This means more jobs for Australians. Australia you have nothing to fear but fear itself.

  42. NZ’s new Govt. got changes before signing. If the ALP supports the TPP through our Senate it then becomes too late. The ALP need to wake up fast to how bad the TPP is for Australia’s future.

  44. Upnorth @ #1589 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:42 pm

    As a “rusted on labor voter” I fully support the TPP. As I have noted previously I no longer live “Down Under” but have worked in the Asia Pacific region for nearly a decade now.

    Apart from the Colour of my white skin leading to discrimination amongst the locals, my Australian Passport means I cannot even work in certain roles or use the skills I have developed. The TPP – and believe me I have followed this more closely than most – will allow those skills to be recognized and even more importantly those Aussie products which are sort after in these markets far greater access. This means more jobs for Australians. Australia you have nothing to fear but fear itself.

    I don’t question that some individuals will be better off. The real question is whether Australia as a whole benefits more than it loses by giving up the various rights that the TPP would force us to relinquish.

    It is hard to see that being the case.

  45. Aunt Mavis @ #1519 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 2:20 pm

    poroti:

    [‘Manufacturing went on shrinking under New Labour; the sector’s workforce halved from 4.5 million to 2.5 million between 1997 and 2010.’]

    That’s huge, though more attributable to the economic rise of China, other Eastern countries, than N.L.

    I mean, you can go to, say, Target and buy a toaster for $8, an electric jug for $6. There’s no way Western manufacuturers can compete. And that’s why Myer and David Jones are fast becoming dinosaurs. How they’ve survived until now is a mystery to me, albeit anchor lessees receive a substantial rent discount under a retail shop lease.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-12/myer-full-year-results-2018/10236074

    Never, never, never, never, never, never by cheap toasters. Never, ever ever.

    Burn your house down

  47. Yous (or youse) would be a perfectly sensible second person plural which, for some reason, didn’t get into the English language.

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