BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor

BludgerTrack catches up with Newspoll, as the second round of post-coup polls proves hardly better for the Coalition than the first.

First up, note that developments in Wentworth, including Dave Sharma’s Liberal preselection win overnight, are being tracked in the post below.

There have now been four polls since the leadership change, two apiece by Newspoll and Essential Research, the first pair conducted in the immediate aftermath, the second a fortnight hence and released earlier this week. Essential recorded a slight softening in the post-coup blowout, but Newspoll did not. BludgerTrack is now reflecting the Newspolls in having Labor leading 56.0-44.0, translating into a 97-49 lead on the seat projection that I don’t advise waiting up for.

In any case, BludgerTrack is in methodological limbo at the moment, as its smoothing method is not designed for convulsions such as the one that set in three weeks ago. Whereas the smoothing parameter is normally determined by something called the Aikake information criterion, this has lately been causing a problem in producing a very low value for the Coalition and a very high one for Labor. The effect of this has been that the current reading of the Coalition primary vote has reflected the sudden change in fortunes, but Labor’s has not.

As a result, I have junked my usual method for the major parties and simply applied arbitrary low values that get them to the ballpark of where their latest poll results have been. The sizeable increase in the Labor primary vote this week is only because I have moved them from a high to a low smoothing parameter – the latest polls have in fact had them down slightly. When enough data is available from the Morrison era for it to work, I will start up a new series using only post-leadership change data.

Also in limbo for now are the leadership ratings measures. For Scott Morrison’s net approval and Morrison-versus-Shorten preferred prime minister trends, there will not be enough data for a couple of months. There’s nothing to stop me maintaining Bill Shorten’s net approval rating, but keeping it going in the absence of the Turnbull measures will require a bit of code tinkering I haven’t got around to yet.

Full results featuring state breakdowns:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,744 comments on “BludgerTrack: 56.0-44.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 33 of 35
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  3. Parasitic financial firms will leave the UK. Good.

    The UK Government will have more policy discretion over a wide range of important topics such as renationalizing monopoly infrastructure and running it for public benefit, increasing the supply of public housing and minimizing the rents that landlords can extract from the unproductive activity of owning a piece of land, regulating the financial sector so that its size shrinks and it uses strong underwriting standards that prioritize productive investment and minimize systemic financial risk.

    Brexit was the right move. Economic dummies defend the EU despite its incredibly poor performance.

  7. Player One @ #1579 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 3:55 pm

    Dan Gulberry @ #1575 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:04 pm
    I signed the petition, as a rusted on.

    https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/tpp/1809-tpp-11-senator-contact-ask/tell-labor-shut-down-the-tpp

    A fucking bonehead idea by Labor that will cost them if they vote for it in the Senate.

    Agreed. And petition signed.

    If any of the ALP rusted-ons here have any justification for this decision to support the TPP, I’d be interested in hearing what it is.

  8. The ALP is apparently supporting a treaty that they promise they will make it illegal for them to support once they are in government.

    What? How the hell does a country bind itself to a treaty that it cannot exit from? What international body can enforce it? What kind of repercussions are real, credible threats from the countersignatories?

    First get power, then use that power.

    The terms of the TPP can be changed.

  9. ‘Nicholas says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 5:01 pm

    Parasitic financial firms will leave the UK. Good. ‘

    I assume posted without the slightest hint of uncertainty and certainly irony-free.

    These ‘parasites’ put around 65 billion quid a year into Treasury. The EU will welcome the 65 billion quid a year and the 70,000 jobs with open arms. And Corbyn/Maduro will be able to decide which social programs are cut by 65 billion quid a year.

  10. Dan Gulberry says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 3:23 pm
    briefly @ #1515 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 12:10 pm

    The result of these gains is higher real wages both in manufacturing itself and in the non-industrial sector, where industrial products are exchanged and consumed.

    So Labor is wasting its time campaigning on reversing stagnant and falling wages then. We shouldn’t worry then about what party we vote for because real wages have been increasing.

    ….are you trying to say Labor should attempt to undo three centuries of productivity gains in agriculture, thereby causing an increase in the price of food, a corresponding decline in real wages and a population shift back to the rural hinterland?

    The declines in employment in manufacturing – like the declines in the agricultural workforce – have resulted in an increase in real wages. These are obverse sides of the same coin. They reflect technical innovation and the creation of new products. Do you want to cease this process, as has happened in north Korea?

    Labor needs to drive investment in the economy – in our people, in publicly-owned infrastructure, in the non-traded parts of the economy (the health system and the environment, for example) and act to reverse the effects of market failure. These measures and others, such as improving the bargaining power and organisational rights of workers, will increase incomes, wages, the investible surplus available from production and the general level of economic welfare.

  11. Fess

    I had not heard of him before. I like his attitude. Brave chap.From his Wikipedia entry

    Foote started a serial publication called The Freethinker, which is still published. As a result of contents of this journal, Foote was charged with blasphemy, and eventually imprisoned for one year with hard labour. On receiving his sentence from Mr Justice North (a devout Catholic), Foote said “with great deliberation” to the Judge “My Lord, I thank you; it is worthy of your creed”.

  12. I take it from the figures that Matt posted that workers in the UK have had a real increase in income over the past 40 years. I am sure that this would please all those posters who have the interests of the workers at heart.

  13. Parasitic financial firms will leave the UK. Good.

    …and go somewhere else, so that large-scale finance will cost UK business more.

    Great plan, Nicholas.

  14. Nicholas says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 5:01 pm
    Parasitic financial firms will leave the UK. Good.

    The UK Government will have more policy discretion over a wide range of important topics such as renationalizing monopoly infrastructure and running it for public benefit, increasing the supply of public housing and minimizing the rents that landlords can extract from the unproductive activity of owning a piece of land, regulating the financial sector so that its size shrinks and it uses strong underwriting standards that prioritize productive investment and minimize systemic financial risk.

    Brexit was the right move. Economic dummies defend the EU despite its incredibly poor performance.

    The total lies of the strange beast, the Putinist Alt-Fa pseudo left…….

  20. If Abbott loses preselection, I’m almost certain he’ll either join up with Bernardi or start his own party.

    And if you thought he was sniping and wrecking now…

  22. Tristo

    ‘The Marxist rhetoric aside especially from shadow Chancellor John McDonnell. Labour’s last election manifesto if anything was a quite restrained, they are only advocating nationalizing railways, electricity, water and the postal service.’

    Did they put a price on that? Remember, having driven the moneylenders out the City they will be skint to start off with.

  23. I fear this TPP. I fear any trade deal done by the Libs/Nats. I do not see workers benefitting, nor the nation as a whole, because anything the Libs do is not for workers or the nation. It is for the companies who will give them succour, or are already doing so.

    The Lib/Nats are the red-robe and white-cowl wearing Handmaids of Big Money. And they get between Australia’s legs to offer up our resources and services in return for very little other than a roof over their heads and a mildly hot meal.

  24. I feel for those on the treetop walk when the earthquake struck.

    Senior Geoscience Australia seismologist Phil Cummins said it was the second earthquake to hit the region in a week.

    “It occurred roughly between Walpole and Kojonup on the south coast, it was felt all the way from Albany up to Perth,” he said.

    “It is quite a large earthquake, it is large enough to cause damage but it’s unlikely to have done so because it occurred in a relatively remote area.”

    Mr Cummins said the earthquake was uncommonly large.

    “You would expect to get a 5.6 (magnitude) maybe once every couple of years throughout Australia,” he said.

    He said a magnitude-3.5 earthquake struck off the coast of Albany on Wednesday, while another magnitude-3.4 earthquake hit Walpole on Thursday.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-16/earth-tremor-rocks-southern-wa/10253364

    No damage apart from a few homesteads damaged, thanks to its remote location. But locals near the epicentre reported it felt like a bomb going off. I thought it was thunder, then wind before realising it was an earthquake.

  25. Did they put a price on that? Remember, having driven the moneylenders out the City they will be skint to start off with.

    Is there any legislation preventing them from doing it with the stroke of a pen?

    It’s not like they have a Constitution to protect business from it.

  26. “First get power, then use that power.

    The terms of the TPP can be changed.”

    Seems to be the position the ALP is taking. Hey, they can probably treat it like the Trump treats the International Criminal Court, the UN, and the way Australia deal with the convention on refugees. Ignore it as and when suits..

  30. The previous NZ conservative government negotiated the TPP and once the current NZ labour government took office it negotiated a number of side deals with other countries who have signed up to the TPP to specifically to address the same issues identified by the ALP.

    So, adjusting terms of the TPP with individual countries can be done and it should be recognised , for example, that not all signatories to the agreement have the same labor testing clauses with Australia so any renegotiations when / if labor is elected will be with individual countries not with every signatory to the TPP

    Cheers.

  31. i
    I believe that the US is never been a Party to the ICC: the risk of US soldiers being tried by a third party would be far too great?
    Not sure.

  33. The UK Government spends first and taxes later. The UK Government funds its taxpayers, not the other way around.

    The UK financial sector has become far too large relative to the productive economy. The excessive financialization of the economy is the single biggest contributor to growing inequality of income and wealth. It’s the biggest contributor to increased systemic financial risk.

    The UK Government, like any currency-issuing government that allows its currency to float in foreign exchange markets, uses taxation to bring about a transfer of real goods and services from the private sector to the government sector. In return, the private sector gets the UK currency that it needs to extinguish the tax liabilities that the UK government has imposed on it.

    The UK does not lose any spending power because of financial firms leaving the UK. Anyone who believes otherwise doesn’t understand how taxation works.

    By leaving the EU, the UK Government gets more policy discretion. Whether it uses it or not is up to the government. But it is asinine to claim that leaving the EU disadvantages the UK Government or the people of the UK. The EU is a pro-austerity organization that restricts national governments’ capacities to enact policies that could be in their peoples’ interests. Every EU member should leave.

    The Remainer position is based on symbolism and sentiment, not policy considerations.

  34. “I believe that the US is never been a Party to the ICC: the risk of US soldiers being tried by a third party would be far too great?”

    Correct, nit the best example i could have used but you get the gist. 🙂

  37. Nicholas

    ‘The UK financial sector has become far too large relative to the productive economy.’
    They must see you coming for ages and ages.
    The City writes $21 trillion worth of business because they have been able to act as the finance gateway between the whole EU economy and the rest of the world.
    So the City is not about the UK. It is about the EU- which is around eight times bigger than the UK economy.

    Anyway, with your advice, Corbyn will no doubt chase them all out of the UK and that will show the UK!

  38. LU not logged in @ #1594 Sunday, September 16th, 2018 – 4:55 pm

    Where’s this spate of houses being burnt down by cheap toasters then, DTT?

    LU

    I was not going to bore everyone with details but a homemaker brand toaster bought by me very nearly destroyed my house 10 days ago. Left toast in a supposedly pop up toaster.

    Forgot it. Went out for 20 minutes – maybe 25-30. Came home (fortunately). Smelled burning at the front door. Thought odd – went into kitchen to find toaster ALIGHT flames up the wall etc. Smoke everywhere of course. Luckily tiles right behind on the wall so slowed burning. The power cord of the toaster and nearby kettle fused. Luckily too the power switch tripped. Otherwise when I stupidly chucked water on it it may have been worse. If the adjacent timber door/window surrounds had caught alight or if the fire had burned though and caught the cupboad doors and then the floors by by house.

    If I had left any tea towels or paper near the toaster it could also have been more serious. If the cooking oil was left on the bench too I hate to think. All these were possible.

    I now have a large burned hole in the kitchen bench. Major pain in the neck.

  44. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 5:40 pm
    mari
    Thank you. Dutton out looking for strawberries is a bad look.

    Told David he deserves double time for producing this on a Sunday

  45. p
    Do stop being cruel to me…
    Here is a prediction, not a hindcast: if Corbyn does what he says he is going to do then not a lot of people are going to miss him.

  48. It is extremely difficult for an opposition to vote against a treaty that an Australian govt has negotiated. It would savagely undercut the ability of Australian govts to go out and negotiate anything. So Labor is in a bind.

  50. PlayerOne
    If you refuse to comply with the terms of the treaty, the ISDS provisions would come into play.

    That’s incorrect, as ISDS applies only between governments and businesses. Failure to comply with and/or uphold the provisions of a treaty by a signatory would be an issue for the signatories to the treaty which, obviously, are governments not businesses.

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