The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.
Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.
Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.
lizzie,
You always know when Lucien’s starting to feel the heat. The tougher it gets, the lower he goes.
He has no lower limit.
Rex Douglas @ #1546 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 2:44 pm
You’re no better than Fraser Anning
guytaur @ #1503 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 1:47 pm
Actually, it is the NEG they are quietly slipping the knife into – by pointing out that it will not achieve the required cuts.
Anning would be an absolute hit with extremists such as IS; for he’s done their bidding. Islamic terrorists want to get local Muslims onside by demonstrating that western-liberal democracies abhor them – and what more would evidence same than Anning’s call to ban them?
He took some nine months to put his maiden speech together. Given the tenets of it, it goes without saying that he knew what the fallout would be. He surely knew the views of the several intelligence services re. attacking Muslims, yet he kept his speech under wraps, ostensibly not even allowing his staff to read it. This was little doubt calculated. He saw the attention Hanson received following her maiden speech, and perceived an opportunity to enhance his political prospects.
True it is that the parliament came together as one against his racist rant, but whether that was sincere in some quarters remains to be seen; look no further than the number of senators who congratulated him.
The fact is that he’s now the champion of fringe-dwellers, with his speech putting a hitherto unknown parliamentarian on the national and international stage, affording him a base to fight for re-election. He deliberately went further than Hanson; and this is the crux of the matter: to wrest votes from her party. But in doing so, he’s crossed the line egregiously and will be condemned accordingly by the vast majority. He’s also made discourse on immigration all the more difficult, for reasons that are obvious.
Mal going through a hit list he’s prepared, for use at any time.
Don’t know about that Lizzie. The redundancy payout would only make a difference to them being unemployed if they decided to spend the money and not look for a job. Unemployment statistics aren’t counting the number of people on the dole. It’s just a survey that asks if you worked, and if not did you apply for any work.
Rex Douglas @ #1549 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 11:44 am
These decisions are purely those of the Department and the Minister, so once again you are full of shit!!!!
Did Frydenberg say this?
I would remind him that it is not the ALP who are in government. That the LNP government have had 5 years to work this out. And it is the LNP who still can’t decide what their policy should be.
The Intellectual Bogan,
I have often asked The Greens’ boosters around these parts how many refugees they have given a home to while they found somewhere suitable to live, or even a room to at their house on a permanent basis while they studied English so as to be able to find a job or whatnot, and the answer I always get from them is *crickets*. They practice not what they preach.
Go to a demo, Tweet a photo of it to prove your social worthiness to your mates, then go home to your comfortable middle class existence. Not a problem. Maybe even do a bit of volunteering at the ASRC. But actually let them into YOUR life!?! Are you kidding!?! Talk about cramp your style!
And every time I think about it I also think about the episode of South Park where the boys arranged for Starvin’ Marvin the Ethiopian to be brought to America. When he was a concept, they could deal with that, but when he became a reality they had to deal with on a daily basis, different story…they ended up sending him back to Ethiopia in a crate!
Completely analogous to how the Inner City Greens’ social worthiness functions.
Greensborough Growler @ #1490 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 11:27 am
Let us hope for an outlier like 54/55 to Labor.
ratsak
You probably know better than I, but from interviews I saw when the companies shut down, there were many who had no hope of getting another job. When I think of the few Smillions that would have kept the manufacturing going, and the wastage in other areas by this govt, I get angry.
Bandt is a disgrace, the little weasel
In overdrive trolling labor on social media today
What a little weasel
Roger @ #1559 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 2:56 pm
Fighting for his seat
The green tide has turned
If you want to see better treatment for refugees and asylum seekers vote Labor 1 and send a message to the Coalition so clear that even the stupidest of them cannot mistake it – playing politics on this issue and demonising these people won’t help you win government. At all.
Anything else is pissing in the wind.
And only a strong Labor government works. A hobbled Labor minority government is too easily knocked over. So long as the Coalition gets a political benefit out of this shit they will dig to depths you can’t imagine.
imacca @ #1492 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 11:29 am
Having bushfire seasons cross over like they are is a major problem for firefighting costs as the equipment can no longer be shared between the southern and northern hemispheres. We’ll have to maintain our own equipment year round.
I agree with him.
Criminal cartel charges laid against CFMMEU and its ACT branch secretary
16 August 2018
Criminal charges have been laid against the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining and Energy Union (CFMMEU) and its ACT Divisional Branch Secretary, Jason O’Mara, in relation to alleged cartel conduct.
“The CFMMEU and Mr O’Mara are each charged with attempting to induce suppliers of steelfixing services and scaffolding services to reach cartel contracts, arrangements or understandings containing cartel provisions in relation to services provided to builders in the ACT in 2012 to 2013,” ACCC Chair Rod Sims said.
“These charges follow a joint investigation between the ACCC and the Australian Federal Police (AFP) as part of the AFP’s role in coordinating and contributing to the Joint Police Task Force following the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption,” Mr Sims said.
The charges are being prosecuted by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions (CDPP).
The first mention of the charges before the ACT Magistrates Court is scheduled for 27 September 2018.
The Competition and Consumer Act requires any trial of such offences to proceed by way of indictment in the Federal Court of Australia or a state or territory Supreme Court.
The ACCC is unable to comment further as this is a criminal matter now before the Court.
Lizzie,
If the individual workers agreed they never had a hope of getting another job and so didn’t look for one they wouldn’t appear in the unemployment figures, just in a reduction of the participation rate.
Otherwise they are showing up as employed, unemployed, or they’ve passed away.
I do agree that the $444 mil pissed away to the reef rort probably would have been better invested in our car industry, but it’s also true that the management of those companies bar Toyota was pretty shit and that explains why they died more than almost any other factor. Toyota at least had shown a commitment to building hybrids that had a future in the market. Not so much the other two.
Nah, I’m hoping for some close ones that lull Turnbull into feeling secure and feel like he should strike now while the “iron is hot” and call an election, just to have the poll numbers turn against him after the election has been called.
[then MT is a goner]
That is a deja vu all over again statement
ratsak @ #1562 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 2:58 pm
A minority Govt is only susceptible to internal treachery.
Frytheplanet insists that the Coalition has saved the GBR. Unfortunately he won’t still be in the Parly when it is declared dead.
Funny that when things are really going to pot, the Potato is called on.
Why is Labor so scared to take on Dutton ?
Fighting for his seat
The green tide has turned
It could be a seat to watch. If his PV holds up he should be fine of course, but if Labor can pick up a bit from him and the Libs and they direct prefs against the Gs (not guaranteed) it could get quite interesting. Probably needs something like a 40/30/25 split (G/Lab/Lib) before it gets close though.
“Why is Labor so scared to take on Dutton ?”
No they are going to remove him from office while the Greens political party and their fellow travellers are scoring cheap opportunistic points of them
https://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/fraser-anning-speech-kids-in-detention-nauru?utm_term=.bhPd0AKb3#.et5AR4ajW
ratsak @ #1573 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:17 pm
The duopoly will do what it takes to preserve their cosy arrangement.
So, one charge from the TURC that MIGHT have some legs? After every other one has fallen flat on it’s face. Anyway, we’ll see, I guess.
Though I wonder how a union is capable of this: ‘The CFMMEU and Mr O’Mara are each charged with attempting to induce suppliers of steelfixing services and scaffolding services to reach cartel contracts, arrangements or understandings containing cartel provisions in relation to services provided to builders in the ACT in 2012 to 2013,” ACCC Chair Rod Sims said.’, without also being charged with some sort of Menaces charge to go along with it? Did they just ask nicely for the building companies to use the scaffolding and steelfixing services of their mates?
I smell something a bit dodged up here. Again.
[‘I agree with him.’]
Rex, the Westminster model of parliamentary democracy is adversarial. Thus it’s not surprising that they have returned to dog eat dog mode.
Labor almost consistently preferences the Greens over the Libs (Note: I said almost. Don’t @ me with some exception here or there.)
Even with all that cheap cheap black coal, NSW spot price for energy is currently higher than South Australia’s.
C@tmomma, cover for Cash?
Caught an interesting edition of Big Ideas on ABC Radio National this afternoon (probably a repeat of last night’s): http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/australian-politics—a-review/10012994
Chris Uhlmann (not everyone here’s favourite journalist) covers Australia’s political history for the decade 2006-2016, followed by Laura Tingle on Abbott and Malcolm.
Dish-lickers are barking again? Not being thrown enough scraps?
.
Being ‘creative’ and insisting on union membership being equated with ‘cartel contracts’ ?
And meanwhile, the banksters get off scott free for dipping their hands into the pockets of the poorest members of the community and spending it on yachts and fast cars. I want to puke.
Vote Green if you want. If they’re who you genuinely believe best represent your views, that’s your prerogative. The only thing I ask is you don’t give your preferences to the Coalition.
I know it’s not a sexy issue to talk about but the poor are being increasingly marginalised in this country. And, while I am not going to portray Labor governments in the past as innocent here, things have gone really badly into overdrive in the last few years, as economic policies have gone from misguided to just nasty and vindictive. Virtue-signal all you want but a lot of people in these dire circumstances cannot afford another three years of Scott Morrison’s war on the poor.
On this issue, we can debate long-term countermeasures to this (including your first-year uni buzzwords about “neoliberalism” and “socialism”) in due time but, right now, this needs to stop. It is getting desperate.
antonbruckner11 says:
And doing it whether the victim is dead or alive. Wonderful people.
Old Mavis
“Rex, the Westminster model of parliamentary democracy is adversarial. ”
It’s the alternative to civil war in non-democratic countries. Issues are fought out on the floor of the parliament.
The charges against the ACTU branch of the CFMMEU have been pushed by the ABCC. That says it all. Rodney Simms and the ACCC have dropped the ball for years over power prices and petrol prices ( there in itself is cartel activity ) yet are now geared up to prosecute the union.
Remember it was the ABCC that pushed charges against two CFMMEU officials for taking a tea break. Charges have been laid. A long way to go.
The government is simply trying to break the CFMMEU and using the ABCC, ROC and now the ACCC to do so.
Cheers.
Even with all that cheap cheap black coal, NSW spot price for energy is currently higher than South Australia’s.
A few days ago there was a dispatch interval with negative prices, about -$20/MWh, in Vic and SA, and $0 everywhere else.
Moreover, I was talking with some industry peeps over the last week – big players in generation and retail. Talk is *all* about early shutdown of coal plants, particularly black coal, because LCoEs (levelised costs of capital and operations)of new wind and solar are so competitive with operating costs of coal. They were talking about bringing closures forward 5-10 years in some cases. All hush hush, and the first mover gives the rest a payoff, so I don’t know if it was just a bluffing game going on, but all the same…
Even more interestingly – they don’t want to build the new plant, just strike the PPAs for tranches of them, in order to manage weather risk over a diversified portfolio – so they end up strategically going short on bulk generation but hold balancing plant as physical hedges. This is precisely how the wholesale spot market should operate in order to direct investment and share risk. (The retail market is a different beast.)
Reliability – not an issue.
Fascinating times.
Steve777
I heard Uhlmann overnight and although I didn’t agree with all his judgements, he was surprisingly entertaining. 🙂
Anyone who uses “duopoly” to describe the federal Labor and Coalition parties in 2018 is a vile, immoral piece of shit
That’s the short and tall of it, kakuru.
‘Anyone who uses “duopoly” to describe the federal Labor and Coalition parties in 2018 is a vile, immoral piece of shit’
I think that might be a bit strong. I would characterise such a person as ‘badly mistaken’ or as ‘someone who has no understanding of Australian politics’.
@steve777, maybe a bit strong. I think the times call for strong language though
“We’ll have to maintain our own equipment year round.”
Pretty much and that’s why i think having so RoRo type modules for firefighting would be good. Far as i can tell we have, 8 C17 Globemasters, 12 Hercs C130J’s, and 10 Spartan C27J’s (they replaced the Caribou).
All of those would carry a useful firefighting load and are basically tactical transports so good crew with the right sensors fly them down in the weeds. Yes, its risky business, particularly in smoke, but that’s what military crews get paid for and frankly i think most of them would jump at the chance to fly those kind of missions and push the envelope low flying on the taxpayer $. 🙂
I think having 2 kits for the C17, 4 for the Hercs, and 4 for the Spartans would give us a very useful fleet. Hmmmm….wonder if a Chinook could carry something equivalent to the S-64 Skycrane’s we charter in the summer?? Then there are the Army Blackhawks and NH90 tactical transport helicopters that could carry bucket type gear.
I suspect that self reliance for this sort of thing is going to be an issue over the next 12 months, especially if the current BOM Enso / IOD forecasts turn out to be valid. They point to a scary chance of the drought getting worse and not breaking till sometime next year.
And compared to some of the crap spending the Govt is doing, it would be relatively cheap.
C@tmomma @ #1580 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:25 pm
The suppliers are probably just the individual tradies (each operating as a “business” with an ABN and the CFMEU was probably trying to organise them to obtain better rates from builders.
It’s back to the 19th century where unions were attacked as criminal conspiracies. Of course they had to convert the workers to contractors first, which was started in a big way under Howard. Funny how much of the decline in Australia points back at that little twerp who the Liberals regard as a saint.