Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. And compared to some of the crap spending the Govt is doing, it would be relatively cheap.

    Yeah, but until you find a supplier keen to pay some kickbacks make a donation to support democracy it’s all rather hypothetical isn’t it.

  3. I think Bushfire Bill was right. Let’s jyst ignore Anning and his words. He is a pipqueak not worth discussion.

    Turnbull, Shorten and everyone should just have said; ‘Anning who?’

  6. Puffy, The Magic Dragon. @ #1600 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 4:11 pm

    I think Bushfire Bill was right. Let’s jyst ignore Anning and his words. He is a pipqueak not worth discussion.

    Turnbull, Shorten and everyone should just have said; ‘Anning who?’

    Please. No. SFA used trigger words to get some attention, but what he also did was draw attention to the dangers of the other words being thrown about. I hope we continue to shun SFA, but also to think long and hard about what led to his little speech.

  7. Morrison was ridiculous in his enthusiasm and contempt of the courts in trying to tie Shorten to these CFMEU charges.

    We all know who the biggest crooks in town are and they’re significant donors to the LNP so Morrison should think twice before throwing rocks in greenhouses.

  8. Libertarian Unionist @ #1593 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:46 pm

    Moreover, I was talking with some industry peeps over the last week – big players in generation and retail. Talk is *all* about early shutdown of coal plants, particularly black coal, because LCoEs (levelised costs of capital and operations)of new wind and solar are so competitive with operating costs of coal.

    The trouble with this notion is that coal just keeps getting cheaper. It has little other use, after all – especially thermal coal.

    The only thing guaranteed to close down coal plants early is putting a price on carbon.

  9. Puffy (Tmd) @4:11 “I think Bushfire Bill was right. Let’s jyst ignore Anning and his words. He is a pipqueak not worth discussion.”

    There’s a lot to be said for that approach. Whats ‘is name sought notoriety and attention to improve on his 19 votes next time around. Bernard Meane write an article in yesterday’s Crikey referring to him as Oswald Mosley. He concluded by saying WTTE condemn his words but never mention his name.

  12. mikehilliard,
    Let Scrote have his fun in the sun because just wait and see what a federal Labor government will do with charges arising out of the Banking and Superannuation Funds RC. 🙂

  15. Maybe it’s the NEG, but I’ve noticed Frydenberg is only referred to as Energy Minister these days. The Environment is not part of his world.

  16. Bushfire lawyer was right only if you agree that critics of FAs speech were “wowsers”. He likes to be contrarian and incisive but is sound and fury signifying nothing. His last post read like a One Nation supporter.

  17. The trouble with this notion is that coal just keeps getting cheaper. It has little other use, after all – especially thermal coal.

    Nope, it’s the plant labour and maintenance and operating costs of the associated mine, plus the policy risk, that they are comparing to. The coal itself, like you say, is very cheap.

    Three years ago I would have agreed with you, but renewables tech is gaining an absolute advantage over conventional thermal generation plant.

    But a price on carbon would do wonders for driving change in other industries, esp those reliant on hydrocarbons.

  19. shellbell @ #1604 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 2:13 pm

    CFEMU has already been hit hard by ACCC

    https://www.accc.gov.au/media-release/cfmeu-to-pay-1m-in-penalties-for-secondary-boycott

    I wonder if members are oblivious to the millions pouring out to the regulators and lawyers (CFEMU’s and other side)

    They see it as the cost of doing business. On occasion in the past the membership have paid a levy on top of their dues to finance such things.

  22. …before dinner needs my attention. That amazing picture on the Guardian of “All of the faces” Barnaby reminds me of a toy from my childhood, an inflatable punching bag with a face on it and some sand at the bottom so it comes upright after striking. I can picture it with that face. 😆

  23. Anning’s words are, of course, a wedge to carve for himself to try and keep himself relevant and get enough fringe support to stay an electable entity (worked for Pauline) and if you asked 5-10 years ago, I would have said to ignore him, his term ends next year blah blah. However, we can’t ignore shit like this anymore. White nationalism is popping up everywhere and, if left unchallenged or treated like an irrelevant fringe, it grows. And while Anning is not going to be a huge force in politics, if that sentiment grows, it won’t be long until it becomes a bit more mainstream and is adopted by the Coalition (or at least some circles of it.) Or a more “moderate” proposal is made as some sort of “compromise” because moderation fallacy and bias rules the day.

    Yeah, spilling our tea and saying “Well I never!” won’t counteract it but letting it go unchecked and unchallenged definitely won’t either.

  26. Late Riser @4:30 “Maybe it’s the NEG, but I’ve noticed Frydenberg is only referred to as Energy Minister these days. The Environment is not part of his world.”

    The environment has no priority for the Coalition. It’s like being Minister for Sport, at best a stepping stone to bigger and better things for up and coming backbenchers; or at worst, to paraphrase what someone said in the 90s in another context, like being made toilet cleaner on the Titanic.

  27. “Yeah, but until you find a supplier keen to pay some kickbacks make a donation to support democracy it’s all rather hypothetical isn’t it.”

    I hate it when cynical bastards like our rat are probably right. 🙁

    However, exercised my right as a citizen in our great but ever so slightly dysfunctional democracy to email the shadow defence spokesperson pointing out that 2015 study and suggesting it as a good idea.

    Yeah, maybe nuthin to come of it, but you do what you can. 🙂

  28. Steve777 @ #1623 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 4:43 pm

    Late Riser @4:30 “Maybe it’s the NEG, but I’ve noticed Frydenberg is only referred to as Energy Minister these days. The Environment is not part of his world.”

    The environment has no priority for the Coalition. It’s like being Minister for Sport, at best a stepping stone to bigger and better things for up and coming backbenchers; or at worst, to paraphrase what someone said in the 90s in another context, like being made toilet cleaner on the Titanic.

    Cynic says, “It solves the problem by hiding the problem.” You can’t have a conflict of interest when you have no interest.

  29. Libertarian Unionist @ #1617 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 4:32 pm

    Nope, it’s the plant labour and maintenance and operating costs of the associated mine, plus the policy risk, that they are comparing to. The coal itself, like you say, is very cheap.

    If you own the mine, it may be sensible to cost things this way. Otherwise, you look at the market price for thermal coal, which continues to go down, and down, and down. And yes, as coal producers seek to reduce costs, some of the more expensive mines will be closed. And yes, demand for coal is moderating (but not declining significantly).

    However, overall coal is not going away anytime soon – not unless we price carbon.

  30. Roger @ #1587 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:48 pm

    Anyone who uses “duopoly” to describe the federal Labor and Coalition parties in 2018 is a vile, immoral piece of shit

    Roger that is a remarkably narrow minded comment.

    There are in may opinion 6 broad areas of political philosophy – all important and where the partes by and large differ.

    First there is the traditional left right split that is about government control in the economy. Obviously there is a urge difference between the ALP and the Coalition in this area and the greens are pretty much the same as the ALP – not as far left as the Left of the ALP but still pretty much ALP. So your comment is certainly true HERE

    Second there are the social equity policies eg medibank, education etc etc, the classic main ground of social democrats around the world. Pretty much the same story. There is a HUGE difference between the ALP/Greens and the Coalition. So again you are right to say that there is no duopoly

    Third you have a swag of “green issues” Now here there is a pretty big left right split within the ALP but there can be no doubt that the right of the ALP and the left o the LNP are pretty much in tandem. Again there HAS been a drift left in the ALP so what I say is less true today that say in 2010, but it is still true that there is quite a bit of overap between the parties, with the geeens and perhaps the left of the ALP being outriders.

    Fourth you have all the social issues – gay rights abortion or euthanasia. Here the difference is much.much less clear because there is a fair bit of overlap between the parties. The SDA types (Chris Ketter etc) would here be closer to the Abbott wing of the Coalition as opposed to the Liberal wets. However you are sort of right in that the ALP has shifted towards the Progressive ideas/Greens on these issues and the Libs towards the reactionary/DLP so there are now wider differences than say 20 years ago.

    Fifth you have the social justice issues – immigration/ terrorism/privacy etc and here you cannot really claim that there is a huge difference between the major parties. if these issues are really important to you then it is quite reasonable to say that there is a duopoly. You may hate to admit it but it is still true.

    Finally you have the international issues – US alliance, wars in the ME etc. There is a difference but it is not huge between the two majors.

  32. Anyone who uses “duopoly” to describe the federal Labor and Coalition parties in 2018 is a vile, immoral piece of shit

    Steady on. Coles has those Scoop and Weigh things and charges half as much for a packet of dried apricots, but nobody doubts that it and Woolworths form a “duopoly”.

  34. Lovey@4:31pm
    It appears that you assume that all ALP supporters were /are progressives. There was Kalgoorlie MP in 1990s, who was pretty conservative even by LNP standards or what about that ‘Joe’ from WA, who was recently elected as senator.
    How did you think that we got White Australia policy. It is mainly because of unions backing. Or look at past ALP leaders like Curtain, Chifley, Garden, who were supporters of White Australia policy.
    Also, about 40% voters give their preferences to ALP above LNP. For example, a One Nation MP got elected from Mirani (even with an outstanding ALP candidate), a safe ALP seat, in last QLD elections.
    Howard won so many elections on the back of ‘Howard’s battlers’, who were mainly ex-ALP voters

  35. Frydenberg’s a buffoon. All you hear in QT is his ridiculous honking and the speaker rarely shuts him up.

    Could it be that Frydenberg is a hired buffoon? He comes across to me as someone perpetually startled and needing to be told what to say and how to say it.

  40. According to the Government, this is how to save the reef!!! 🙁

    Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Management Plan disallowance fails
    From Tony Burke’s office:

    The Australian Parliament has just locked in the largest removal of area under conservation in history.

    The Senators considered each of the Marine Park Management Plans and the disallowance motions moved by Labor Senator Louise Pratt have each been defeated.

    This is a shocking day for conservation.

    No Government anywhere in the world has ever removed an area this large from conservation on land or sea. The process, which was commenced by Tony Abbott in 2013 has now been completed by Malcolm Turnbull and locked in by the Senate.

    At a time when the health of our oceans has never been worse the rest of the world has been adding marine protected areas at the exact same time as Australia has been removing them.

    Labor acknowledges the support of the Senators from the Green Party during this process.

    The fight to protect our oceans will continue. It must.

    Labor will have more to say on this in the near future.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/aug/16/energy-dissenters-dog-coalition-as-company-tax-moves-back-to-spotlight-politics-live

  41. Frytheplanet is no buffoon. He helped craft Workchoices.

    Ah. I was absent from here for that and unaware. Opinion suitably revised.

  42. Lovey wrote:

    Bushfire lawyer was right only if you agree that critics of FAs speech were “wowsers”. He likes to be contrarian and incisive but is sound and fury signifying nothing. His last post read like a One Nation supporter.

    There you go, Lovey, being a wowser again. Some people just LOVE to condemn others. The virtue signalling of wowserism makes them feel better about their own moral failures.

    I simply said that if you’re going to go after Anning, go after him for what he said, not for what you want to whip up hysteria about what he said.

    He was not urging mass murder, but he was urging restrictions on immigration based on unsound reasons. He has a perfect right to say so, first in the street and especially in the parliament to which he was lawfully elected (if the Constitution allows a Senator to be elected with only 30 votes, then change the Constitution, or reform the High Court, but don’t blame the Senator for seeing the loophole and start raving that he was appointed. He wasn’t.)

    Plenty there for criticising Anning without having to make anything up about what you think he was saying, or what you reckon the limits are on his right to say it, or the form of words he uses.

    Penny Wong had the right idea: don’t mention him by name, and affirm something positive, rather than condemn something negative.

  43. It is good to see that the Greens are attacking the Liberals with such vim and vigor. After all, the ARE the class enemy.
    Right?

  49. The Guardian has a much more balanced story on the ACCC taking legal proceedings against the CFMEU arising out of the Heydon RC. It also gives the union secretary his correct title instead insted of “union boss” used by Fairfax and ABC. A statement by the head of Unions ACT is also quoted, something not done by Fairfax and ABC.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/16/construction-union-and-act-branch-secretary-charged-with-criminal-cartel-conduct

    There’s a bit more background to the timing of the ACC statement today. Nothing like trying to undermine an ACT jobs code opposed by the ACT Liberals:

    Normally when hundreds of union members descend on the ACT Legislative Assembly waving flags and chanting, it’s because they’re “throwing bricks at the place” over one policy or another, as Klaus Pinkas from the Transport Workers Union wryly noted.

    But on Thursday, it was because they supported the proposed Local Jobs Code that Workplace Relations Minister Rachel Stephen-Smith released last month.

    The code is a formalisation of a longstanding agreement between the Barr government’s and Unions ACT, in which the territory agreed not to award tenders to companies that did not comply with workplace safety laws, had underpaid workers or did not have cooperative industrial relations practices.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/act/unions-rally-in-support-of-proposed-act-jobs-code-20180816-p4zxuh.html

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