The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.
Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.
Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.
Wombat @ #1648 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 5:44 pm
It depends on your timeframe – you can make a case for prices going up if you look at just the most recent data, or very long term data, as you are. If you look at 10 year data, it is clear that prices have trended down over that term, but with a recent uptick (probably to do with renewed demand). However, the overall forecast is for them to continue to trend down.
One thing that is clear is that coal is still perfectly viable at much lower prices than we are currently seeing.
citizen
Thank you for the CT link. Makes it all a bit clearer. No wonder they have been charged. The agreement goes against everything the Tory bastards hold dear.
“…the territory agreed not to award tenders to companies that did not comply with workplace safety laws, had underpaid workers or did not have cooperative industrial relations practices.”.
I’ve just read through all the posts from today and it appears Malcolm Turnbull is a complete dickhead.
No worries, all normal then.
The Ladbrokes betting market on the next election has moved in Labor’s favour (the prices in the PB sidebar are out of date):
Federal Election – Sworn In GovernmentInformation
Labor
1.48
Coalition
2.4
Australian Conservatives
101
Greens
151
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation
201
“Frytheplanet is no buffoon. He helped craft Workchoices”
Au contraire. Frytheplanet was a minor workchoices flunkey. A political suicide note for the Howard Government. He has form. He’s the complete rwnj buffoon.
Aussie Ambassador to US (an ass…e called Hockey) joked about Indian floods (where 75 people died) on twitter on Indian Independence Day. He must be totally trumpified.
https://amp-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.news.com.au/technology/joe-hockeys-foolish-tweet-about-indian-natural-disaster-sparks-fierce-backlash/news-story/ebe98212a27edaaa9c8042082d6d6e47?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Ftechnology%2Fjoe-hockeys-foolish-tweet-about-indian-natural-disaster-sparks-fierce-backlash%2Fnews-story%2Febe98212a27edaaa9c8042082d6d6e47
Bilbo’s quite correct in so far as the two Majors dominate the political landscape to the point that at worst one will be by far and away the dominant partner in a minority government. They also clearly frame the dominant political debate.
#suckinguptothebossonPB
Sexy misuses the term though to imply the two offer identical product. That’s clearly nonsense. Of course there is a reasonable degree of commonality as you would expect in a nation where there is no significant population opposed to these (support for maintaining a standing army, a certain base support for taxation and social spending etc). But the two majors also differ in fundamental aspects. And in many ways it is only the discipline of needing to not lose votes to the other that keeps that gap from widening.
The idea that somehow a great swathe of the nation is denied political expression by the existence of this duopoly is bullshit. Once any idea reaches a critical mass one or the other (or both) of the majors will adopt this as part of their platform. And no this isn’t a new phenomena due to the existence of minor parties. In the past these ideas would simply have gained traction from within the major parties. None of Whitlam’s program required a minor party to agitate for for instance.
Rather these claims have all the hallmarks of trolling and sour grapes from those who hold a position not favoured by any significant proportion of the population and without the will to make the sacrifices and compromises to build a broad support base. They would rather look to atomise the support base of the major that closest matches their belief and so hand power to their opponents for vanity and indulgence, than accept that they must give in order to receive and stand in solidarity with the major supporters that can and will enable at least some of their desires to be implemented through the political process.
The duopoly doesn’t have a problem with offensive behaviour.
It’s comforting to know that Pauline is seeking votes from the moderate centre:
Andrew_Earlwood, so Frydenberg is more your useful slugger? He’s someone you can rely on because he understands his limits, takes instruction well enough, and is in a safe seat?
Rex Douglas @ #1659 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:03 pm
What was the process in establishing the code or was it just a Green brainfart? 🙂
Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Management Plan disallowance fails
so same-same
antonbruckner11 @ #1620 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 4:36 pm
LOL…..
Turns out the Liberal Democrats finished second in Fremantle, overtaking the Greens after preferences.
William Bowe @ #1665 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:08 pm
So the Greens came third in a two horse race! 🙂
The memory of Adele Carles lives on.
The Coalition rape the land, they steal the water and they destroy the fish in the sea.
All the effects of global warming will be made worse by this ignorant and selfish mob.
Hear god dam fucken hear, rat sak
And have an amen while you’re at it
Shorten_Suite
@Shorten_Suite
A Perth man who has been awarded a record $1 million compensation payout for abuse suffered at the hands of Christian Brothers says he would have been happy simply with an apology.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-16/record-payout-awarded-for-christian-brothers-church-sex-abuse/10128456
adrian @ #1670 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:15 pm
… but for anything else, that’s completely different.
The duopoly at work in Fremantle.
Longer version…
“Andrew_Earlwood, so Frydenberg is more your useful slugger? He’s someone you can rely on because he understands his limits, takes instruction well enough, and is in a safe seat?”
Workchoices.
GBRF scandal.
NEG death march.
That would be a no. Not a useful slugger.
adrian, you don’t seem to understand. As our FM she is the face of Australia so it’s her job to look good. (sarcasm off)
Simon Birmingham may be the closet thing that the coalition has to a “useful slugger”.
Why don’t people march in the streets anymore? Because Twitter is easier.Also, you don’t have to leave your house.
Cormann is a handy political operator.
According to his lights.
Which are dim.
Andrew_Earlwood, so just a short plank then.
Fark Anning got 17 votes!
Just a reminder of the kind of crap that Julia Gillard had to put up with in comparison.
https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1029640310220050432/uP28Gd3Q?format=jpg&name=600×314
mikehilliard @ #1681 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 3:24 pm
So!!!
Well that didn’t work…
Rex Douglas @ #1668 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 6:20 pm
troll
So… change the system!
P1
“However, the overall forecast is for them to continue to trend down.”
That may well be the forecast, but you said it was going down.
If you fitted a straight line over the past 10 years, then yes, it would be down.
But you can’t just ignore 2 years of the most recent data. Sure it may decrease again. But that’s a forecast.
If anyone has a high horse to spare, I am in the market.
Coal is not viable at any price.
Any hindrance to the dismantling of the coal industry is not in the best interests of anyone except the mob that got off free when the NSW Expremier closed down the on going inquiry into corruption in NSW.
The now owners of the mostly ill gotten coal reserves have laughed all the way to the bank the ex premier probably joined.
Sorry, Andrew-Earlwood, but this is the CV of a serious IR playa:
Frydenberg studied and earned honours degrees in both law and economics at Monash University before working at Mallesons Stephen Jaques(they crafted Workchoices for Howard), a large Australian commercial law firm. He subsequently attended the University College, Oxford to study for a Master of International Relations degree in 1998 on a Commonwealth scholarship. Frydenberg has also attained a Master of Public Administration from John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
Career
In 1999, Frydenberg worked as an assistant adviser to Attorney-General Daryl Williams before becoming an adviser to Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer, a post he held until 2003. From 2003 to 2005 he was a policy adviser to Prime Minister John Howard, specialising in domestic security issues, border protection, justice and industrial relations. In 2005 he took up a position as a Director of Global Banking with Deutsche Bank in the company’s Melbourne office.
Boerwar
Please get on your high horse to condemn the facilitation of longline fishing by the Coalition.
I just saw a bit of Andrew Hastie and Peta Credlin on Sky News as it gets dark. Bonkers, the both of them.
Josh when he had hair and didn’t look like a butterball! 🙂
Wombat @ #1686 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 6:30 pm
The coal market (like all markets) is subject to short-term fluctuations, but the long-term trend is definitely down, down, down. Here is a fairly robust analysis of where we are most likely heading …
https://home.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/au/pdf/2018/coal-price-fx-consensus-forecast-june-july-2018.pdf
boomy1 @ #1677 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 6:23 pm
also
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/aug/16/anti-fascist-protesters-antifa-police-doxing-twitter-mugshots
Husic and Frydenberg seem to be great mates.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/if-we-can-do-it-why-can-t-the-rest-of-the-country-inside-parliament-s-unlikely-friendship-20180816-p4zxut.html
“Liberal cabinet minister Josh Frydenberg and Labor rising star Ed Husic have long had each other’s backs.”
BK
I reckon you are out by 50%. Credlin is deviously manipulative and nastily sane. IMO, Hastie is 100% bonkers.
I hereby condemn long line fishing which is driving various species to extinction.
[‘@juliebishop: “I don’t think it’s necessary to get dressed up in designer clothing and borrow clothing and make-up to grace the cover of magazines. You’re not a celebrity, you’re a Member of Parliament.”]
Meanwhile she’s not adverse to using the the Doris Day lens – a smear of vaseline.
Boerwar
A fair enough correction.
H and F were interviewed together this evening on ABC RN Drive.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/drive/josh-frydenbers-and-ed-husic-on-the-dangers-of-racial-politics/10129032