Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential records a widening of Labor’s lead and improved approval ratings for Bill Shorten.

The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.

Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,681 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Barney – after laughing I actually thought the bookmakers are probably factoring the small possibility that the Liberals and Nationals fracture, probably over Energy policy, and a “rump” join Cory Bernardi. It seems outlandish, but stranger things have happened (see Hughes, Billy). In would see it as about 100 to 1 that more than a couple of disgruntled Coalition MPs join Bernardi, and it would take a tsunami of them to get enough to be a viable force to then have a chance at winning the next election.

    Seriously I don’t know why they bother with those outlier numbers in Australian Politics. It frustrates the mathematician in me when I am converting them into “percentage” chances for Labor v LNP. UK betting markets on the other hand can be interesting – a straight “horse race” between Labour and Tories for PM, but lots of combinations for Parliamentary Majority or various coalitions. I had my money in 2015 on Labour/Lib Dem/SNP but I lost (as did the UK apparently). It would have been a “beautiful set of numbers” to see the Lib Dems remain in Government but switch sides.

  3. Christensen threatens to cross the floor a lot and then does nothing. He needs to put up or shut up.
    ____
    He’s just a big bagful of flatulence! Nothing solid ever emerges.

  4. Barney in Go Dau

    He even had his stomach stapled to make sure he was up to making the distance allllll the way across the floor.

  6. Adam Bandt tweets

    In amongst the NEG noise, Labor has just quietly slipped the knife into renewables, saying today they only want a 45% emissions cut for electricity, consistent with a weak Abbott 26% economy-wide cut, not the 60% needed for Labor’s 45% economy-wide cut. Devastating.
    #Greens

  7. imacca – yes this has increasingly become a problem as Australian and USA bushfire/wildfire seasons are overlapping more and more. Last year there were huge fires in Ventura & Santa Barbara in California in December that weren’t contained until mid-January. The first fires of the 2018 season (hard to define when winter doesn’t provide a convenient ‘break point’ any more) started one month later!

  8. George is almost as cowardly as Trumble.

    But he’ll have a few friends to hold his hand so I’d put the odds of him going over the top if Tones and Hastie et al do significantly higher than the odds of Trumble having anything that looks like a success on the NEG.

    More likely scenario though is that Trumble caves to the troglodytes before it ever gets that far.

  10. “Workman: Minister, you have said your office is not under investigation – that is not what the AFP have said, they said in front of Senate estimates, a week ago, and they said your office is under investigation … So why won’t you say whether you have been interviewed by the AFP?”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/aug/16/energy-dissenters-dog-coalition-as-company-tax-moves-back-to-spotlight-politics-live

    Anyone with a spare whiteboard please contact Michaela Cash’s office immediately.

  11. briefly @ #1505 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 1:49 pm

    guytaur says:
    Thursday, August 16, 2018 at 1:47 pm
    Adam Bandt tweets

    No-one should take at face value anything Bandt says…

    Especially after the way The Greens slipped the shiv between Labor’s ribs over the CPRS, gleefully describing it as a ‘Carbon Tax’ when they knew full well the grief Labor were getting over just that thing from Abbott and the corporate media.

  13. @Sohar

    “The manner in which some journalists are defending their perceived right to publish salacious slurs against a woman, just because they can, is sickening. There’s little point in engaging with these people.”.

    Exactly! Pointing to Buzzfeed.

  14. Roger

    Wow so tolerant of different views.

    A perfect example of what the Green supporters complain about in regards to Labor supporters on this blog.

  15. Talk about “crossing the floor” and other guff, I seem to remember Barnaby Joyce was always threatening to “cross the floor”. He may have done but he got the nick name of “Back Down Barney” in those days. What is it about the Nationals? Like petulant kids. What amuses me is when I get to a talk to a National supporter they always tout Joyce and others and kind of straight-talking men from the bush…kind of the call it like they see it, mean what they say and say what they mean. Actually they are a bunch of frauds.

  16. Adam Bandt has just made a point that the government is trying to pass a policy that fails to reduce to to it’s own emission target, whilst Labors position is to atleast commit to that target…. Labors position actually looking more reasonable considering all things.

  17. Couple of idle thoughts this morning got interrupted. Then Amy reminded me a few minutes ago.

    Most of the speeches yesterday denouncing Senator Fraser Anning’s speech had an air of a careful choice of words; they had lost the visceral honesty of the raw less polished responses of the night before. The cartoons this morning feel somewhat clever and polished too. Racism and genocide don’t deserve that kind of polish. I think that its a mistake to provide it.

    But those careful deliberate responses got me thinking. Actually it was Sean Leahy’s piece on “Arbeit Macht Frei” and the similar one by Peter Broelmann too. That phrase, just like the better known “Final Solution” is associated with brutal evil. But while the words themselves are triggers the meanings are not. “Arbeit Macht Frei” has the same general meaning as “hard working” as in “hard working Australians”, and similar feel-goods like “aspirational”, “get a good job” in the association of ideas. It feels good to hear that all you need for a good life and a good society is that you and everyone works hard.

    So, while the visceral response to Anning’s speech is receding but still fresh, I hope we also do some deeper reflection.

  19. Nicko

    Yes. Just political differentiation really. Of course the Greens want more. At least Labor is not throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

    Edit: Or as Mark Butler put it we just need the foundation in place.

  21. Scott Ludlam:

    That’s the only good news, because there’s very little positive to be said about the government’s latest lunge for intrusive powers embodied in the Telecommunications and other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Bill 2018. The template, by now, is so familiar you can probably recite this next bit by heart, but let’s run through it because the details matter.
    ::::
    For an encrypted mail service or messaging app to be of any use, it needs to be decrypted at either end – so that you can see what’s being said. This new bill provides police, clandestine agencies and ministers with a startling range of tools for compromising devices and services in order to intercept communications at either end of the encryption “pipeline”. The tools cover everything from a 10 year jail term for refusing to unlock your phone, to legally binding orders forcing service providers to install malware on your device or create whole new compromised services for people to use unwittingly. The potential for misuse and abuse is extraordinary, but it is unlikely we’ll ever hear about it, owing to the steep new penalties for disclosing that these orders are in force. But maybe, the next time you’re asked to install an update to your favourite messaging app, you’ll be downloading something that isn’t what it appears to be.

    The Australian digital rights community and the Greens have condemned the move, Labor has promised with a straight face to subject the bill to rigorous scrutiny as though it hasn’t already made up its mind, and government spokespeople have taken a break from white nationalism and coal advocacy to talk about their other favourite subject: national security.
    ::::
    The most important gap in our legislative architecture – the absence of a legally enforceable human rights act – remains in the wilderness of major party indifference for the time being. In the meantime, it seems we’re due for our three-monthly bipartisan force-feeding of upgraded surveillance powers.

  23. Turnbull takes the use of energy to repeat his attacks on Labor

    And the Speaker, grinning, lets him get away without answering the Q on the member for Hinkler.

  24. For an encrypted mail service or messaging app to be of any use, it needs to be decrypted at either end – so that you can see what’s being said. This new bill provides police, clandestine agencies and ministers with a startling range of tools for compromising devices and services in order to intercept communications at either end of the encryption “pipeline”.

    Which is pretty much exactly what I said.

  25. Theoretically, Liberal and National parties allow members to cross the floor, but it’s very unusual. It is a severely career-limiting move, putting at risk not just their preselection but their post-politics sinecure. It’s hardly ever seen except from conscientious backbenchers near the end of their career.

    I don’t expect any floor-crossing, certainly not to support effective climate change action. It would hardly be worth the cost for those who would reject even the toothless NEG that ends up getting though the joint party room.

  26. Tricot- You’re right. Malcolm will throw these goons a couple of extra scraps. They will all make nice and nobody will cross the floor. But Malcolm’s standing will be tarnished (again) and the Lab states will say “Piss off”.

  27. Other way around

    No, correct way around.

    When the filth are doing well politically the political opportunities for the Gs expand.

    When Labor is doing well politically the political opportunities for the Gs contract. They know it. Which is why all Labor policies must be scoured for a ‘fault’ that can be spun for the Gs political benefit.

    There’s nothing particularly startling about this. It makes perfect sense from the Gs point of view to try and have Labor knobbled and pick up as many disappointed Labor voters as possible. Realpolitik.

    It’s just not much use to the country when we have a situation where a Coalition government as shit as this one is can get into power and retain power on the back of Labor weakness and media boosting. And it does seem that the pure self serving attacks from the Gs are being noticed and have passed the point of diminishing returns to possibly even being an active turn off. More people are seeing the big picture and they aren’t turning the Bandt et al.

  30. The Gs are an anti-Labor outfit. They do their best to undermine Labor, to oppose them, take their seats, aid their enemies and generally make life difficult. They are effectively Tories in fancy dress.

  31. BK

    Amy’s on to it!

    The deputy prime minister might still be finding his feet on how to deal with question time, and what level of passion and theatre he should bring to the floor, but let us all be thankful he quickly abandoned the ‘yelling-and-loud-noises-as-a-personality-quirk’ because Scott Morrison has that space more than covered.

  33. 😆

    Nick Champion to Malcolm Turnbull:

    Is the Prime Minister aware of media reports that during a briefing on his energy policy the Prime Minister said to the member for Warringah, “please do me the courtesy of allowing me to finish my sentence.” The member for Warringah replied, “I would have, if you allowed me the courtesy of finishing my term.”

    Was the PrimeMinister again speaking merchant banker gobbledygook?

  35. Theoretically, Liberal and National parties allow members to cross the floor, but it’s very unusual. It is a severely career-limiting move, putting at risk not just their preselection but their post-politics sinecure. It’s hardly ever seen except from conscientious backbenchers near the end of their career.

    Crossing the floor didn’t limit Trumble’s career.

    Those that want to do him in won’t be fearful if they think they can bring him down. You don’t suffer for that sort of stuff when you end up on the winning side. It would only be dangerous to them if they did it and Trumble ended up triumphant and winning a third term. They’ll know the odds of that diminish from already vanishingly small to impossible with every one who joins in. If the number gets over about 5 he’s finished pretty much immediately.

    But as I’ve said I don’t think it will get that far. Either Trumble will cave and give the loons more, or he’ll just pull the entire idea and pretend it never happened. Anything else is immediate political suicide. Slow political suicide will look by far the more attractive option.

  36. In amongst the NEG noise, Labor has just quietly slipped the knife into renewables, saying today they only want a 45% emissions cut for electricity, consistent with a weak Abbott 26% economy-wide cut, not the 60% needed for Labor’s 45% economy-wide cut. Devastating.#Greens— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) August 16, 2018

    You just can’t trust LibLab

  41. A Brandt tweet is nearly always guaranteed to bring Rex – Bludgers own performing seal to the surface for a quick arf arf arf…

  42. Labor is arguing to close to a doubling of emission cut in the electricity sector over the Liberals plan, yet the Greens response is the same old non constructive non sense.
    No one should take them seriously anymore.

  43. Always nice to see a party, largely made up of people affluent enough that their own lives are not likely made shit by the current government, putting the boot into the one party with a slim chance of making life slightly less shit for the rest of us. I used to be broadly sympathetic to the Greens but, under DiNatale, they seem to have given free range to their fundamental middle-class tosserness.

  45. Rex Douglas @ #1532 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 2:30 pm

    In amongst the NEG noise, Labor has just quietly slipped the knife into renewables, saying today they only want a 45% emissions cut for electricity, consistent with a weak Abbott 26% economy-wide cut, not the 60% needed for Labor’s 45% economy-wide cut. Devastating.#Greens— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) August 16, 2018

    You just can’t trust LibLab

    Bit late to the game today, Rex Douglas. That one’s already been covered. And basically everyone has seen it for the puerile guff that it is. 🙂

  50. A 12-year-old refugee boy on hunger strike on Nauru for more than a fortnight is at imminent risk of dying, medical staff on the island say, but efforts to move him to hospital care in Australia have foundered. https://t.co/zYOo01Okk2— Lenore Taylor (@lenoretaylor) August 16, 2018

    The parliamentary duopoly at work.

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