The latest fortnightly poll from Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 52-48, up from 51-49 in the two previous polls. It also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which reflect Newspoll’s in being bad news for the goverment, thought not in quite the same way. Where Newspoll had Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings tanking, Essential has him down only one point on approval, to 42%, and up two on disapproval, also to 42%. However, Essential records an improvement in the ratings of Bill Shorten, who is up three on approval to 34% and down three on disapproval to 44%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-27, down from 42-25. Further questions relate to drought and climate change, freedom of speech and social media and the Nine takeover of Fairfax, which you can read about at The Guardian – or when Essential publishes its full report later today, which is also when we will get primary vote numbers.
UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. The primary votes are Coalition 39% (down two), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 6% (steady). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.
Also, federal voting intention results have now emerged from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, which have two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with a 52-48 lead to the Coalition in the last such poll in May, and 54.1-45.9 at the election. The primary votes are Coalition 37% (40% in May, 43.2% at the election), Labor 34% (33% and 30.9%), One Nation 10% (10% and 5.5%) and Greens 9% (10% and 8.8%). This poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday last week, from a sample of 839.
Further results from the Newspoll: 55% would favour lifting restrictions on gas exploration if it would mean lower power prices, with 31% opposed; 37% said Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition would be “best at maintaining Australia’s electricity supply and keeping power prices lower”, compared with 36% for Bill Shorten and Labor; and 63% said the government’s priority should be keeping energy prices down, compared with 26% for meeting greenhouse gas emissions targets and 8% for preventing blackouts.
BK yes
Doyley@11:03am
I really tried to find holes in your argument. I can’t see any other than your scenario may not come to fruition because ALP may rollover to MT demands.
Can you explain why Shorten is under pressure and questions to answer?
Zoid
Nope. Not so. I am part of the solution because I value credible information and don’t just dismiss it because a paper has made one mistake. I just trust people to bear in mind the source. Like all the articles posted from the ABC and Murdoch media.
Plus people can learn from mistakes and I think Buzzfeed’s model that got the Steele dossier published about Trump still is worthy of support
Billy Hughes did retain some values though in his 50 plus years in Federal Parliament –
At the 50th jubilee dinner of the Commonwealth Parliament, a speaker paid tribute to him as a man “who sat in every Parliament since Federation – and every party too”.
Arthur Fadden interjected: “Not the Country Party!”
“No,” said Hughes, still able to hear when he wanted, “I had to draw the line somewhere.”
Poroti
These ferocious creatures are now in training to relieve the pressure on the, apparently, solitary crocodile tasked with once in 3 months attacks.
Emma Alberici tweets
Another incredible exchange at the #BankingRC This time it’s the AMP Super Trustee admitting that customers opting to invest their retirement savings with AMP’s Cash Management Super Product were foolish cos they would have been better off putting it in a term deposit at a bank
Pegasus @ #1442 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 9:38 am
Brilliant point and highlights what Murphy was saying about the Government and some of their comments.
Their sentiments are little different to Anning’s except they tend to steer clear of of the completely inflammatory phrases.
Labor should not buy into the warring inside the LNP. They should simply advance their own policies, argue for them, and oppose the alternatives. This is good policy and good politics.
Which is why this is what Labor will do.
It isn’t 2013. Labor aren’t the party riven. Labor aren’t the party being judged on how they are actually governing at this time.
The idea that somehow a buffoon like Lucien can use Labor not falling for his NEG con to camouflage falling real wages, loss of penalty rates, unaffordable housing, cuts to education and health, a third rate NBN, tax cuts for corporates, dodgy donations to big business front groups, minister’s offices illegally tipping off the media on dodgy political police raids, crippling drought and massive bushfires, and just how weak he is and how many of his own party want to tear him down is, well heroic. It’s not going to happen. Just like all the Kill Bill bullshit was never going to win Trumble a by election.
The reality of the situation just doesn’t allow for this transparent conjob to be a masterstroke any more than any of Trumble’s other ‘masterstrokes’ have done anything other than blow up in his face Wile E Coyote style. Like the Road Runner Labor will keep doing their own thing and watch in bemused silence as our ‘hero’ comes up with more and more ingenious ways to fail.
Daniel Andrews about to say a few words.
BK @ #1445 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 12:38 pm
The key lie that the LNP is trying to get out to the electorate is that the bigger emissions reduction target the ALP want is unnecessary, since the NEG already achieves the 26% target set by our Paris committment, and saves voters money to boot!
Of course, this omits the inconvenient truth that the Paris target was for our overall emissions, and not simply for the electricity sector. It omits the fact that reducing our emissions in that electricity sector by – say – 50% is the easiest and cheapest way for us to achieve our overall national goal of 26%. We are quite simply not ever going to be able to do that by reducing our transport emissions, or our agricultural emissions. Our overall national emissions are in fact still increasing, and not decreasing at all … and they will continue to do so while we continue with our utterly insane “biggest Australia” population policy.
Labor needs to point this stuff out. It’s not rocket science. The whole NEG is based on a lie.
The NEG as it currently stands is a patently incomplete instrument.
Alice Workman tweets
Standing by for Michaelia Cash https://twitter.com/workmanalice/status/1029921593177374722/photo/1
Guytaur
Buzzfeed isn’t even on the press council.
You cannot say it’s a good thing!
RR – Deep down, Malcolm is a deeply insecure man. You would be too if your mother left you at 9. He has spent his life grasping at things to fill the big yawning hole inside him – money; status; power – and convince himself that his mother was wrong. Nothing else matters. People around him do not matter. He just wants to be PM because, while he is PM, he does not have to face “Malcolm Turnbull”, a man he truly hates.
I am bored with Wayne’s boring ‘our great LNP will win next election by a landslide’. Can Wayne at least change it to ‘Shorten has questions to answer’. 🙂
DPP has inexplicably decided not to prosecute anything?
The Murdoch Mafia have an in-house awards night, prestigious if you believe the RupertRooters. The pinnacle prize – akin to the Gold Logie – is named after Rupert’s father. Of course you have to be a Murdoch employee to qualify, and this year’s winner is… drumroll….
Zoidlord
No matter how you try and say otherwise the fact remains. On tech Josh Taylor knows what he is talking about.
His tweet of what What’s App favoured by the PM said about the PM’s legislation is accurate.
sohar: A word of advise to the Blairites here, forget the f_cken Grauniad and look at something decent.
https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2018/08/15/a-sky-news-reporter-goes-rogue-and-reveals-the-truth-about-the-latest-corbyn-smear/
So, let me get this straight, Corbyn makes a hand gesture in support of the Muslim Brotherhood – an extremist Islamist organisation – but it’s a “smear” to say he was giving succor to extremists because he was actually only doing it to demonstrate his opposition to the undemocratic removal of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt in military coup
And that’s the coup that the liberal activists of Egypt practically begged the military to undertake, because they saw the Muslim Brotherhood as being diametrically opposed to everything they had campaigned for in the “Arab Spring”.
I think I’ve got it.
Hmmm…..
Spider @11:54 am, agreed with your thoughts, but what made me smile was your refreneces to “Leichen”, which I took to be an Auto-Correct for “Lucien”, but translating from the German also means “corpse”.
Sohar@12:19pm
Corbin has questions to answer
Alice Workman tweets
Michael Cash still won’t say whether or not she has been interviewed by the AFP or had any communications with the DPP. https://twitter.com/workmanalice/status/1029925262039822343/photo/1
antonbruckner11 – I often wonder about leaders in democracies (and dictators), whether they think much about what their legacy will be – how they will be thought of in 20, 50, 100 years. Because to me, it seems Turnbull will just vanish. I picture some student trying to work out – what were his ambitions, what were his achievements, what did he leave Australia? Just a blank. Sad.
sprocket_ @ #1464 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 12:54 pm
Even better. She won it for her exclusive breaking the story on Barnaby Joyce and his mistress after the by-election. This story was actually comprehensively covered by twitter media sources while the by-election was being held.
I think that Malcolm’s plan with regard to the NEG is this:
1. Cobble together whatever deal he can with the troglodytes
2. Present this to the House, allowing minimal time for review or “debate” and demand that Labor pass it pretty much immediately
2a. The bill will be so weak that no Coalition member crosses the floor. Katter, McGowan and maybe the X lady support it.
2b. Labor votes against it.
3. In concert with media and business allies, attack Labor and Bill Shorten day and night for (allegedly) wanting blackouts and increased power prices
4. Labor suggest amendments which are ignored by the Government and most of the media
5. Negotiate with cross-benchers
6. Enough cross-benchers support NEG in exchange for a mess of pottage
6a. If 6 doesn’t work, go to step 10
7. Pass NEG
8. Be hailed a hero by business, the CPG and media allies, wave a piece of paper declaring “Peace in Our Time”.
9. Labor and Greens will correctly declare the NEG a crock of shit which they will amend or scrap if they win Government
10. Refer Step 3.
11. If adverse weather events cause blackouts over Summer, or power prices increase, blame renewables, Labor and Bill Shorten
12. Refer Step 3.
13. Win 2019 election
14. Cut health, education and welfare, privatise stuff, sell the ABCand SBS, look after mates…
15. If anyone asks about the climate, say it’s sorted and / or blame renewals / Labor
Ven @ #1462 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 12:53 pm
I think you mean “Shorten has answers to questions” unlike the LNP and especially the PM.
RR – Some people really care about their legacies. They are, to a large extent, in the game to make the world a better place. Malcolm does not give a s… He just wants to say “I was PM”. I’m sure he’ll try to ex post facto “construct” a legacy for himself. But with Malcolm it is only about “winning”. Along the way, of course, he’s promoted the flavour of the month (republic; climate change; etc etc) but they were just vehicles for his ambition. Open him up and you’ll find nothing inside except a bundle of insecurities.
I still wonder whether Labor might have won in 2016 against Abbott
In a canter.
Abbott I think is the most toxic person to ever be PM
You are making the mistake of seeing the Malcolm Myth, not the real Trumble. Abbott has some standards. They are few and extremely low, but he has them, which is more than can be said for Brian. I doubt Abbott would have fallen for Gretch for instance, and Abbott at least has the courage of the crazy brave. The toxicity of our national politics hasn’t lessened since Abbott was booted. There’s a reason for that. Watch Lucien in full smear mode in QT and you might work out what the reason is.
So getting rid of Abbott was a good thing for Australia.
It wasn’t. Getting rid of this government was what Australia required, and sadly enough dopes bought the Malcolm Myth to ensure it got another three years to damage us all.
But I am still stunned at how badly Turnbull has performed.
No one who has paid any attention to him should be. If anything the stunning performance was to stop fucking up so comprehensively for a few weeks at the end of the 16 campaign to save his government. His performance on election night was completely in character. Why would anyone expect better than that from him? (other than they got conned by the fawning media…)
and wonder if that empty chair would have been a better leader than Turnbull.
Easily. But of course Trumble or Abbott or any of them would just be the turd on top of the pile. Leadership isn’t their problem. Denial of reality in just about every domain of government and being a bunch of spivs and chancers looking for ways to rort the system rather than actually govern competently is the reason they are destined to fail.
Pegasus@12:38pm
So True. Otherwise how can explain the contrast when it comes to ‘African gangs’ or questioning ‘Chinese Australians’patriotism during Bennelong by-election.
Steve777 @ #1472 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 1:02 pm
I think I see a slight flaw in your otherwise perfect plan! 🙂
Ratsak is in full form. Go you good thing.
Waleed gets a lot wrong, but good to see him pick up the obvious truth. The Libs are only pissed because Anning came right out about going for the racist vote rather than blowing on the dog whistle like they do.
Not sure if anyone has posted this. I hadn’t known that the “Five Star Movement” in Italy had specifically opposed a bypass project that would have got rid of the recently-collapsed Morandi bridge in Genoa. Apparently their statement saying that the prediction of the imminent collapse of the bridge was a “fairytale” has vanished off their website after being there for five years.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/in-ten-years-this-bridge-will-collapse-the-man-who-foresaw-a-tragedy-20180816-p4zxqf.html
The 1970’s live again.
Here we see Michaelia “Dancing Queen” Cash resplendently modelling a snazzy pair of flared trousers, and a top made from what appears to be a hollowed out mirror ball:
Spot on observation of the sorry state of the media in this country by Dr Jennifer Wilson.
“The manner in which some journalists are defending their perceived right to publish salacious slurs against a woman, just because they can, is sickening. There’s little point in engaging with these people.
There’s a much-needed conversation about journalistic ethics begging to be had, but there’s no point in arguing ethics with people who simply don’t seem to have any”
From:
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/emma-husar-journalistic-ethics-and-digital-idiots,11786#.W3P74gH9htt.twitter
Daniel Andrews about to say a few words.
that put the election out of the Lib’s reach.
Ven
“I am bored with Wayne’s boring ‘our great LNP will win next election by a landslide’. Can Wayne at least change it to ‘Shorten has questions to answer’”
That job is already taken – by Rex.
I can forgive Wayne for being a troll (it gives this dismal moron something to do). However, I’d prefer he wasn’t a boring troll. Wayne – try to re-work your repetitive messages, the way Rex does with his anti-Shorten boilerplate.
Alice Workman tweets
Michaelia Cash
@AAPMick https://twitter.com/workmanalice/status/1029931852818046976/photo/1
ratsak
Getting rid of this government was what Australia required
Yes as soon as I wrote (of what I thought at that time), I thought that, and maybe getting rid of Abbott just saved the Coalition for one election and therefore was a bad thing. I am not so certain as you that Labor could have won – I like to think so but I’m not sure.
I have thoughts like this all the time – one of the greatest nights of my life was when Keating won in 1993 but I am always haunted now by the thought that if instead Labor had lost, then John Howard would never have been PM and Australia would be a better place. So the pain of Keating losing would have saved me from the worse pain of Howard being PM for eleven years (which of course I would never have known that I ‘missed’).
The reality as you say is that the individuals probably don’t matter as much as many (including myself) believe. What our country desperately needs right now is a Labor Government. Which is possibly why the “Kill Bill” strategy of the LNP/IPA/Newscorp is such a failure. The Australian people are going to vote out the LNP and vote in Labor, and the leaders don’t really change anything.
Apropos nothing being discussed, has anyone on the Medicare Safety Net noticed that we now have a “government co-payment” of $2.00 for some prescriptions. Thank you PM Stumble.
I just noticed in the side that the Australian Conservatives are third favourite to win the next election.
What does that say about the two on $126? 🙂
The ever reliable George:
EXCLUSIVE
Christensen to PM: I’ll cross floor over NEG
1:21PMJOE KELLY
George Christensen has issued a list of demands to Malcolm Turnbull over the national energy guarantee and has issued a threat if they’re not met. (Oz headline)
Steve777 @ #1472 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 1:02 pm
I’d say the next Newspoll will be critical for Turnbull’s survival. Given his personal ratings have fallen in the last poll, if this transforms in to voter flight from the Government, then MT is a goner. A shift to Labor of 1-2% points would see the whole charade come tumbling down.
This. A manifesto for us all to keep on keeping on doing what we do:
https://www.thecanary.co/trending/2018/04/21/owen-jones-dishes-the-dirt-on-the-uk-media-leaving-corporate-journalists-fuming/
Interesting on the bushfires in winter thing in NSW. Problem seems to be that a lot of the tanker resources are in the US at the moment. Seems also that we are looking forward to and sever and maybe extended drought in Australia over the next few months.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/273124144/download
Above is a link to a 2015 feasibility study on using C17 Globemasters, of which we have a few, as water bombers and coordination aircraft.
We also have C130 and the new C27’s. Not as big, but sometimes you need the smaller units for tactical flexibility. I reckon could be a damn good use of military assets for something other than breaking things and hurting people.
citizen @ #1489 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 1:27 pm
Good old Gunna threatens again
guytaur @ #1421 Thursday, August 16th, 2018 – 12:14 pm
The headline there misleads. The article only talks about the laws not being enforceable on overseas-based companies. By virtue of the company being overseas-based. Which, I mean, yes that’s certainly true. But it’s also patently obvious to the point where the article becomes non-news.
Australia can’t even get overseas companies to pay their taxes properly. Of course trying to get them to do security-defeating things that are often architecturally impossible in the first place is not going to work any better.
Anyways, my taken on the proposal and its effect on the companies that it’s actually enforceable upon (which is what we should be looking at anyways):
TAR’s are a joke. Compliance is purely voluntary; a business can simply refuse to comply with no consequences. So no worries there.
TAN’s are worse. A business must comply, if able. However a business that doesn’t do things that it shouldn’t, like build in backdoors or other forms of spying on its users for its own internal purposes, is probably still safe here. If a business doesn’t have the ability to do what’s asked (which hopefully, they won’t), it still gets to refuse to comply and doesn’t face any consequences for doing so. So if you trust that businesses aren’t already spying on you for their own benefit, TAN’s are pretty okay and toothless. But if you live in the real world…not so much.
And TCN’s are downright scary. Businesses must comply with these, and if they can’t then they must build the ability to do so. The only exception is that “a TCN is expressly prohibited from requiring the building of a capability to decrypt information or remove electronic protection”, which may sound good on its face (hooray, encrypted data is always safe!) but leaves more than enough space to completely undermine personal privacy on a wholesale basis.
One simple way to leverage TCN’s is to demand that a business implement a feature that takes a copy of data immediately before (or after) it’s encrypted (or decrypted) and stashes it in some local cache that can be accessed by law enforcement if/when desired. This wouldn’t be a “backdoor”, and it doesn’t decrypt or “remove electronic protection” from any data. It’s valid within the constraints set out, technically doable, and completely removes all effective privacy protections. And the government can compel companies to do it.
Extremely dangerous and not something that should be dismissed with a simple “oh, but it’s not enforceable (on businesses lucky enough to be based overseas)”. This is not something that we want progressing to the point where we’re debating whether it can compel all companies or just Australian ones. If it gets that far then privacy has already lost.
Christensen threatens to cross the floor a lot and then does nothing. He needs to put up or shut up.
It’s entirely appropriate that a nasty piece of work like Shari Markson won the top Rupertrooter – named after the sith lord’s father Sir Keith in this, the 100 anniversary year of the battle of Hamel and the 100 day campaign that ended WW1, given Sir Keith’s propaganda campaign with Bean to remove that Jewish-Prussian upstart Monash from command of the Australian Corp.
Luckily for the allies Australia was lead by a Prime Minister who, for all his faults, was prepared to do his own research and make decisions based on sound advice. Thanks to Bean and Murdoch Hughes travelled to France prepared to sack Monash, arriving shortly before Hamel. Having spoken to Monash at length about his plans and taking soundings from other AIF commanders Monash kept his job.
Compare that to the current encumbent: whatever Ruprick and the other media Mughals want, they get. Not questions asked. Dud NBN? Yes Rupert. Media convergence laws. No problemo channel 9 (oh, shit – now Rupert’s offside. Fingers crossed that he and little Kerry and stitch up the rest of the media landscape between, otherwise we’ll just have to sell the ABC to Newscorpse after all). …
AR
At minimum we need EU GDPR protections. Until then think we are already lost. We already have Facebook here. With a business model that at its heart allowed Cambridge Analytica.
The only unusual thing was the publicity when it was caught.