Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.

The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

764 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  4. President Trump had barely finished catapulting a belligerent tweet and new sanctions at Turkey on Friday before Mr. Putin was working the phone with his Turkish counterpart, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    It was vintage Putin, showcasing his seizure of any opportunity to divide the West.

    But at the same time, the Western sanctions he hoped to get lifted have only been tightened this past week, pushing the ruble down to its lowest levels in years.

    At home, Mr. Putin’s standing with Russians is suffering as a result.

    For all the strategic success Mr. Putin has had — including diminishing NATO and the European Union by bolstering populist governments in Europe as well as Middle East autocrats — he has failed to persuade or pressure the West to lift successive waves of American and European economic sanctions imposed on Russia since its 2014 annexation of Crimea.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/12/world/europe/russia-us-sanctions.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

  5. Confessions

    For West Australia I think whatever works best with being in the same time zone as places like China works best. The clocks are different to the east anyway.

    For the whole country I think its simple. Daylight saving time as is for most the exception being the tropic areas.

    If Western Australia The Northern Territory and Queensland coordinated a “Tropic Time” that would make sense.

  8. PHON prefs won’t help the filth. High PHON votes ALWAYS cruel the Coalition. Only Howard because he had a huge buffer has ever survived a high PHON vote.

    So pumping up the Coalition polling to reflect higher PHON prefs is almost certainly misleading. They’ll lose so many seats in Queensland it won’t matter that their vote might hold up relatively well elsewhere.

  9. guytaur @ #106 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 5:53 am

    Confessions

    For West Australia I think whatever works best with being in the same time zone as places like China works best. The clocks are different to the east anyway.

    For the whole country I think its simple. Daylight saving time as is for most the exception being the tropic areas.

    If Western Australia The Northern Territory and Queensland coordinated a “Tropic Time” that would make sense.

    Have another coffee and perhaps English will emerge.

    It’s like trying to read DTT, you make no sense. 🙂

  10. guytaur:

    I think West Aussies are used to not having daylight saving and I don’t envisage the issue coming up again anytime soon. That ship has well and truly sailed.

  11. Confessions

    Yes I can believe that. Especially as the LNP made much (for once correctly) of being in the same time zone as a lot of Asia.

    A good argument that makes sense to me. WA has always had the separate time zone so its arbitrary when its time zone is as it’s not going to match the eastern states

  13. Denise C‏ @SpudBenBean · 12h12 hours ago

    The tweet & video of Lenore Taylor questioning the #GBRF due diligence process have both been removed from the #Insiders twitter page. Turnbull and or Fifield must have complained. #auspol

  14. Maybe Malcolm’s popularity is dropping because people are realising that he is an arrogant tosser who swans around doing nothing (except caving in to the loonies in his party. That incongruity has to bite at some stage.
    One thing is for sure, if he tries to sell a NEG that even Tones is happy with it will be a big own-goal.

  15. Kristina Keneally
    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    The private foundation behind #ReefGate is sending a letter to all MPs saying they want to be transparent.
    Don’t send us a letter – send your Board Members to the Senate Inquiry. So far they’ve declined about half a dozen dates they’ve been offered.

  17. Poroti@7:26am
    Wow. What a scam. He gets 92% of his $587,852 salary as tax free amount. Unbelievable. As Packer once reportedly said “Don’t come between this young man and money”
    I paraphrase Packer to say Don’t come between this Old man and money.

  18. Katherine Murphy tweets

    Little bit of breaking news fellow NEG nerds: the Coalition’s backbench on environment and energy committee has been summoned to the Cabinet room at 8.30pm this evening https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/aug/13/coal-national-energy-guarantee-deadline-coalition-turnbull-frydenberg-politics-live?CMP=share_btn_tw&page=with:block-5b70b9c5e4b0a246f43ffa00#block-5b70b9c5e4b0a246f43ffa00 #auspol @JoshFrydenberg

  19. This constant distortion of the truth by Cabinet Ministers is getting very wearying.

    Kristina Keneally‏Verified account @KKeneally · 1h1 hour ago

    Hey @MathiasCormann – I just heard you said that only @DavidLeyonhjelm raised #ReefGate at #Estimates –
    That’s not true.

    I recall
    @AnthonyChisholm
    @SenKimCarr
    @SenatorSurfer @RichardDiNatale
    @SenClaireMoore
    and me
    asking too.

    #DueDiligence Turnbull style

  20. Lizzie @ 9.18

    This constant distortion of the truth

    _________________________

    Skip the euphemisms Lizzie. Be direct, they are ‘terminological inexactitudes’!

  21. ……….the Coalition’s backbench on environment and energy committee has been summoned to the Cabinet room at 8.30pm this evening

  22. Emma Husar will not be in parliament this week.

    As recommended by the review, the Lindsay MP will be taking part in a return-to-work plan with the Department of Finance Ministerial and Parliamentary Services.

  25. Headline for the DT front page article today:

    PM’s multibillion-dollar pledge to back coal-fired power stations

    EXCLUSIVE THE Turnbull government will underwrite multi-billion dollar investments to build new coal-fired power stations in a bid to lower energy bills. The Daily Telegraph understands Mr Turnbull will announce his support for the ACCC recommendation tomorrow.

    Where did the ACCC tell Turnbull specifically to build a coal fired power station?

    But what’s a few billion dollars of taxpayers’ money here or there?

  26. citizen

    Whatif… there’s no one who will invest in coal? Will the govt fund it themselves?
    Hey Mal, that’s our money.

  27. The NEG is going to fail. Either taxpayers funds will pay for coal power plants which the states will reject. Or its going to be rejected by the party room. Thats the bottom line without spin.

  29. A coal burner from Lucien would be final confirmation that he’s gone into scorched earth mode. He’s spent most of his career there tbf, but a coal plant wouldn’t be to please the nutters or to win votes so much as to fuck the country for not doing the right thing and loving him. He will set out to leave the place a ruin.

  31. guytaur @ #128 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 6:38 am

    The NEG is going to fail. Either taxpayers funds will pay for coal power plants which the states will reject. Or its going to be rejected by the party room. Thats the bottom line without spin.

    Amy highlighted how small a window the Government has to to get the NEG through.

    …
    But they are on a pretty tight deadline. The Labor states want the approval of the Coalition party room before they get serious about looking at the Neg (outside of Victoria’s extra demands for regulation, not legislation) which gives the government a little under a month to get things moving – Victoria goes into caretaker mode in October, ahead of its state election. Then NSW goes into caretaker mode in February ahead of its election – and with the federal election being held in either March or May, that doesn’t leave a lot of wriggle room.

    My prediction – the government will be heading into the election with the Neg as a policy promise, rather than a legislated deal.
    …

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/aug/13/coal-national-energy-guarantee-deadline-coalition-turnbull-frydenberg-politics-live

  32. guytaur @ #127 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 9:38 am

    The NEG is going to fail. Either taxpayers funds will pay for coal power plants which the states will reject. Or its going to be rejected by the party room. Thats the bottom line without spin.

    I sure hope so. You can’t build an energy policy around slandering renewables as unreliable/blackout-causing.

  35. Will ScoMo now change his mind from what he said in April?

    The treasurer, Scott Morrison, has smacked down a backbench push for the Turnbull government to back a new coal plant, arguing that high-efficiency coal does not mean cheap energy, and taxpayers would also be left on the hook.

    Morrison used a public appearance on Wednesday to rebuff fresh positioning by conservatives on coal, declaring it “false to think that a new coal-fired power station will generate electricity at the same price as old coal-fired power stations”.

    The treasurer pointed to the price differential between the electricity produced by existing assets and the newer high-efficiency coal plants.

    He said existing plants were bidding into the national electricity market at $30 or $40 per megawatt hour while a new high-efficiency plant, which would take several years to build, would be bidding into the system at about $70 or $80.

    “So you don’t just open up one down the road and all of a sudden it is producing power at the same price as Bayswater or any of the others,” Morrison said. “That is just not an economic fact.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/04/scott-morrison-new-coal-fired-power-station-not-the-answer

  36. i have given up trying to understand what Guiliani is playing at.
    Although, if the Mueller report is not going to be ready at least 60 days prior to the mid terms, it will probably have to wait until after they take place.
    Here is hoping, either report is forthcoming or alternatively some meaty indictments are on their way. With all the talk lately of the Florida electoral system being compromised, they should get a wriggle on and end this shit show.

    Counterchekist
    ‏

    @counterchekist
    5m5 minutes ago
    More
    I have absolutely no idea why @RudyGiuliani would keep pushing for Mueller’s Obstruction of Justice report. Does he realize this isn’t going to end well for his client? TS/SCI intelligence aside, tRUmp has obstructed justice on Twitter. In front of everyone. More than once.

  37. AR

    The problem for Turnbull is the ACT has a Green MP as energy Minister. They have to have a real reduction in emissions that meets Paris to get it past the states. The LNP can blame the Greens all they like but it will show the Greens in the best light if they alone block such a plan.

    I for one don’t think Labor strategists are that stupid to let that happen. Thus as we saw last time the States gave talking time. The lets see everything before we sign up. Well we are seeing the dogs breakfast as we feared. Thats why I have confidence the states will reject it. The LNP and Murdoch media will spin like mad to blame anyone but the party division and Murdoch propaganda.

    However it will be too late even farmers are becoming vocal on climate change. Not good when your vote is collapsing in Queensland

  39. nothing less than the 444 million dollars being returned to Treasury should suffice in this matter.
    Hope Labor continues to put serious pressure on the govt. Also it is time for the insipid Greens to step up and show some mettle

  40. The Australian tweeted two hours ago (sorry if this is a repeat)

    The Turnbull government lacks policy coherence, party unity and remains crippled by a failure of political management, writes @simonbenson. The consensus is that it is sleepwalking to likely defeat #auspol https://bit.ly/2nxMNkn

  41. On daylight savings:

    People in areas of the northern hemisphere where the sun barely sets, and it is light the whole time even when the sun has ‘set’ don’t seem to suffer from lots of light.

    In Dawson City, Yukon, summer is the time when roads are built, on a 24 hours a day cycle. They don’t even bother to turn on the headlights of the dozers.

    People cope perfectly well.

  42. guytaur

    i havent read Simon Bensons piece. But the coalition so far have achieved their objectives.

    unfortunately, for the coalition, their bad objectives and how they have been managed are being exposed. example of two. Reefgate and AWU raid

  43. victoria

    Yes. So bad even Murdoch has given up on the LNP as that tweets demonstrates.

    I really think Murdoch is trying his tried and tested con of being on the winning side to appear “balanced”

  44. Information Request please Pubsters.

    Is the GBRF a charity organisation?
    If so, are the Directors’ fees of the GBRF tax free?
    Then, do the tax free Directors’ fees add another dimension of stink to Reefgate?

    Thanks in advance.

  46. This DT headline is interesting (article paywalled):

    “Bill Shorten the ‘home brand’ of politicians

    EXCLUSIVE BILL Shorten has earned the unflattering label of the supermarket “home brand” of Australian politicians but Labor’s top strategist believes it’s the secret to electoral victory.”

  49. Rachel Baxendale
    ‏Verified account @rachelbaxendale
    21h21 hours ago

    Environment Minsiter @JoshFrydenberg says the idea to give the Great Barrier Reef Foundation almost half a billion dollars was “not developed overnight” as @KKeneally slams “lotto win” https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/great-barrier-reef-foundation-funding-idea-not-made-overnight-says-josh-frydenberg/news-story/6db0649a2d667804e346c104800ff4ca … #auspol

    Juanita Phillips
    ‏Verified account @Juanita_Phillip
    Aug 11

    Juanita Phillips Retweeted Paul Barratt

    Ms Husar, who has to bring up three children, one autistic, is criticised for hiring her nanny as an electoral assistant and asking advisers for help with her personal life. Mr Joyce asks for sympathy for his depression when he relied on a wife looking after his four children.

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