Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.

The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

764 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  2. Is a newspoll with 51 – 49 almost 53 – 47 with the ON preference fandango taken out (at 9 % it almost gives the Libs another 2% doesn’t it?)

  3. So, I reckon that this Newspoll has Labor at at least 52-48 on 2PP if their One Nation preference allocation fandango is taken out. Perhaps as high as 52.5-47.5 on 2016 election preference allocations?

  4. The inclusion of One Nation at such high numbers is really a laugh.

    Some electorates in Qld maybe … but I doubt the rest of the country would rate that way.

    But still – it gives the Libs something to have kittens over, and Poorleen will be of the belief she can be PM this time next year (and will bankrupt herself and others trying to win seats in every part of the nation.

  5. Again, this is no great surprise – the polls have been set in stone for about 18 months, and it appears that nothing much is ever going to shift it.

    I’ve said this before, but it’s worth repeating – the great mass of voters don’t pay any attention to the day-to-day minutiae of politics, unlike all of us (and if you read a site like this you are by definition a political junkie).

    The situation is as it has been for some years: neither side of politics is proving especially inspiring to voters, hence the historically low primary votes for both the majors, and the large number of votes parked with minor protest parties.

    However, this sense of public ennui is benefiting Labor because they are not in government, and they will likely win government at the next election, albeit without a wave of enthusiasm, on that basis.

  6. And all Malcolm has to look forward to is lots of turbulence ahead (Reefgate, NEG, coy tax etc etc). I thought it inconceivable he would be dumped. But will he risk waiting until May next year and letting his enemies line him up?

  7. and, if I understand The Australian’s report correctly, he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on approval to 55%.

    Which is which?

  8. I suspect this is mostly about reefgate, not the by-elections. Malcolm should never have been in the room. He should never have taken ownership of this decision. People know it stinks.

  9. There is nobody who the Liberals can replace Turnbull with without guaranteeing the next election lost. Ditto Labor and Shorten. Any speculation to the contrary is purely a distraction from the real issues of national policy and the future that we should be talking about.

  11. Which pseph reported that incumbency is worth 15 points head start on the preferred PM rating?

    If so, Turnbull is actually behind.

  12. Hmmmmm….dont the Libs and Turnbull usually do worse in the polls when Parliament is sitting??

    Not a good look going into a week where the Libs are going to be in serious damage control by Thursday. 🙂

  14. TPOF – Reefgate may damage Malcolm’s brand so badly that they will HAVE to dump him. I will be a little surprised if it does. But it is not inconceivable. Then, maybe the Queenslanders decide to row away from the ship (and let everyone else drown) and support Dutton.

  15. Labour 35, Greens 10, One Nation 9, Coalition 37, None of the above 9.

    My back of the envelope calculation of Labor 2PP would be:
    35 + 8.1+ 3.6 + 0 + 4.5 = 51.2,

    so 51-49 seems about right.

  19. Yeesh, what will Rex say?

    “Labor would be winning 60-40 if it was led by Albo or Dan Andrews or Paul Howes (or whichever figure he’s pushing this week)”

  21. “No, I don’t think reefgate is biting yet. Give it a couple of weeks.”

    I hope so, but much of the population get their view of how the country is travelling from commercial TV news or the Daily Rupert.

  23. I know the many Lefties in this site are getting excited, but we should temper that to some extent – there’s no great enthusiasm out there for Labor, who will likely only end up winning because people will want to vote out the government.

    Still, a win is a win, and I’m confident that Labor can form an effective government.

  24. Such a huge shift back in PPM may be about to precede a 2PP drop back to 47-53 over the next few polls, fun times ahead…

  25. Steve, I noticed that Reefgate is getting a run on mainstream now. SBS had it tonight (or was it last night?)

    Some forensic probing (preferably with a pointy object) during #qt this week ….

  28. Hugoaugogo @ #23 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    I know the many Lefties in this site are getting excited, but we should temper that to some extent – there’s no great enthusiasm out there for Labor, who will likely only end up winning because people will want to vote out the government.

    Still, a win is a win, and I’m confident that Labor can form an effective government.

    Don’t oppositions win because voters toss the govt?

  34. Prior to the byelections, they said seats were line ball – but ended up anything but. Look what happened in Longman.

    People point to the past as an indicator, but in this age of multi/social media, I really don’t think history is necessarily as strong an indicator as might have been pre-2000.

    We have fractured media and fractured party politics. Single issue parties and people who vote for them.

    It will be interesting to see if a new govt settles the dust, so to speak.

  35. Next election will be Labor’s to lose. And lose it can.

    If voter sentiment remains as is, it’ll probably be a Labor win. The current Government has never really won the hearts and minds of the population but it hasn’t drawn enough anger that people are ready for any alternative (as was the case in 2013.) Labor need to be on guard during the election because they’re going to throw everything at Shorten and, despite the praise he gets here, he is not made of teflon.

    I think Labor will win, with a decent margin comparable to 2007 but I don’t want anybody to be complacent or put their feet up – especially party members. If you’re able, volunteer as much as you can during the election.

  36. Rational leftist, I’m afraid the first part of your argument falls down on the fact that 16 seats changed hands at the last election.

    If the electorate had no real stomach for change, that wouldn’t have happened.

    Agree on the no time for complacency though …

  37. And this is good because it means Turnbull will likely fire the starting pistol sooner, rather than later because he thinks he has a good chance now (rather than holding on for dear life until the last viable minute because he knows he’ll be destroyed at an election.)

    And that’s not just because of my October election prediction I mentioned but also because the sooner we get a chance to get rid of this mob and their war on the poor and marginalised, the better.

  39. “Labor would be winning 60-40 if it was led by Albo or Dan Andrews or Paul Howes (or whichever figure he’s pushing this week)”
    _____________________________

    Haha. The big joke, of course, is that two weeks after the change and the Kill Albo or Kill Dan or Kill Uncle Tom Cobbley will start. The CPG, with small minds that can’t go beyond sports commentating national politics, will ignore anything to do with actual policy or the national interest unless the issue plays so strongly into the sports commentating they can’t avoid it. But even then the issue will not be good or bad but who is winning and who is losing.

  40. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, August 12, 2018 at 9:53 pm
    So, I reckon that this Newspoll has Labor at at least 52-48 on 2PP if their One Nation preference allocation fandango is taken out. Perhaps as high as 52.5-47.5 on 2016 election preference allocations?

    Yes, but isn’t that just deceiving ourselves? Labor most likely will not get the percentage of preferences from PHON that it managed in 2016. That’s what the adjustment is all about surely.

  41. I don’t think there’s much enthusiasm for either side of politics out there. There’s no great love for Malcolm or his Government. I don’t think that Malcolm is respected the way that John Howard was (or is). But there’s no sense that it’s time fir a change, as there was in 1972 (even 1969), 1983 or 2007. The danger in these circumstances is that when people are alone in the ballot box with a pencil, they’ll stick with the devil they think they know.

  42. Remember people and remind others that MT lost 38 consecutive newspolls. Again that is the worst continuous newspoll losses for any PM since Newspoll started polling. Abbott should be informed of that
    I have a feeling that he stopped counting after 30 since MSM stopped reporting that.
    Good night

  43. Steve … with the volatility of the world in general, I reckon a lot of people do not fear change the way they did a generation ago.

    People are continually told that the majors are basically the same – so that means a change will not be perceived as disruptive.

    Don’t forget also, that Mal was swept up (after taking on the PMship) with a wave of positivity because the perception that he’d be more progressive. He wasn’t/isn’t.

    The electorate is looking for a more progressive leader/govt.

  44. “Labour 35, Greens 10, One Nation 9, Coalition 37, None of the above 9.

    My back of the envelope calculation of Labor 2PP would be:
    35 + 8.1+ 3.6 + 0 + 4.5 = 51.2,

    so 51-49 seems about right.”

    My back of envelope calculation of Labor 2PP is:

    35 + 9 + 4 + 0 + 4.7 = 52.7%

    But I admit that’s a guesstimate at best …

  45. Steve777,
    It’s been a hard decade for politics in Australia.
    Just my general observations here, I’m not trying to start things up.
    There was lots of enthusiasm for KRudd, and then labor stuffed that up.
    At the same time the machine of the Australian Press also really changed. There’s less news today more infotainment. The ABC started to fear its own shadow.
    With Abbot getting in and taking us for a trip back in time and Turnbul being such a middling disappointment on all counts. Australia’s having a very good hard look at just how average an unimaginative we can be as a society.
    We as a country used to talk about bigger things. Now we spend a lot of time talking about MP’s being bad to their staff and having affairs, whilst large crimes and a growing corruption of our systems go unnoticed.
    Anyway, I hope labor wins, and I hope they fire every APS department head and 2ic out there just to push some fresh blohadod into the ranks.

    The cons have spent the last 10 years ripping down institutions. They don’t get built up that quickly. It’s a significant problem.

  46. South – you make some good points. Australia is a smaller, meaner country than it once was.

    On that cheerful note, I might retire for the night.

  47. Only the LNP could stuff up a $444 million donation to reef protection.

    How did they think awarding the money without a tender process to an organisation funded by the fossil fuel sector and that never lobbies for action on climate change was going to mass muster. Now it appears some of the board members are mates on the Turnbulls. This stinks.

    Labor should quote some of Turnbull’s bluster over Utegate – to remind people about his lack of judgement then – he wanted the PM to resign over false allegations of interference in a business funding assistance program on behalf of a mate where a business was awarded tens of thousand dollars. Giving away $444 million to mates has got to be an issue.

  50. Late Riser I must confess that the very first time I went to a real rave party back in 2010 the song that really got me going was the GaGa version of Bad Romance 🙂

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