YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria

Very little in it in the latest state poll from Victoria, as the November 29 election looms ever nearer.

UPDATE: The Herald Sun today has three Victorian state marginal Labor seat polls from YouGov Galaxy, with samples of around 520 each. As with the statewide poll, they find little change on the results from the last election, with Labor leading 54-46 in Eltham (52.7-47.3 at the election) and 53-47 in Cranbourne (52.3-47.7), but trailing 51-49 in Carrum, which was won by a 50.7-49.3 margin in 2014. The Herald Sun also has further results from the state poll: 52% think the state headed in the right direction, compared with 36% for the wrong direction; 34% say the “red shirt rorts” affair made them much less likely to trust the government, 23% a little less likely, and 30% no difference; and 33% said the Coalition’s promise to revive the East West Link project made them more likely to vote Coalition, compared with 16% for less likely and 42% for no difference.

With three and a half months to go before the state election, a YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun records Labor with a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 38%, Coalition 42%, Greens 10% and One Nation 5%. The Herald Sun report opens by saying Labor leads “despite Victorians believing they are too soft on crime”, and while this may be true, it it not supported by the poll, which simply asked which leader and party respondents believed would be tougher. Forty-six per cent rated that Matthew Guy and the Coalition would be, compared with 29% for Daniel Andrews and Labor. Respondents were also asked who would “do better at preventing unnecessary price rises and keeping the cost of living in check”, which has Andrews and Labor on 37% and Guy and the Coalition on 35%. Andrews holds a 40-33 lead on a straightforward better Premier question. I presume the poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday; the sample was 1095.

Below is a poll aggregation chart that combines four results apiece from Newspoll, Galaxy and ReachTEL, twelve from Roy Morgan and twenty-one from Essential Research. ReachTEL, Morgan and Essential are bias-adjusted to make them more like Newspoll and Galaxy. On the current reading of the trend, Labor leads 51.2-48.8, from primary votes of Labor 38.3%, Coalition 41.8% and Greens 10.2%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

34 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. “The Herald Sun report opens by saying Labor leads “despite Victorians believing they are too soft on crime””

    Correction: “Labor leads “despite The Herald Sun desperately trying to make Victorians believe that their ALP government are too soft on crime, and that’s the only thing they should consider on election day”

    My dear Rupert: it’s getting harder and harder to manipulate the voters these days, isn’t it?

    So, if under the circumstances the ALP is still ahead with a 51% 2PP, what’s the reality? 53%?…. 54%?…..

    Not long to wait now…..

  2. Given the obsession of some people with Turnbull being the “preferred PM” in the polls, and their similar obsession of relegating the continuous advantage of the ALP in the 2PP to an almost “boring constant result, not exciting enough” place… Why is that we don’t see this: “Andrews holds a 40-33 lead on a straightforward better Premier question” as part of the title (or sub-title) of this kind of articles?…. Or perhaps the preferred Premier vote suddenly becomes totally irrelevant when an ALP leader is ahead?….

    …. Some food for thought…..

  3. What do you expect from the Murdoch gutter press?The OZ and Hun have been pushing Guys and the LNPs barrow at a million miles an hour. How disappointed they must be it isnt working!

    I expect the ALP lead will improve as we get closer to the election and Guy comes under the microscope a lot more esp his meeting with the Mafia bosses and the very dodgy Fishermans Bend planning approval that helped LNP donors to rake in millions in windfall profits. .

  4. The Hun? You ain’t see nothing yet. Wait till November and the two to three weeks leading up to Election Day. It will be a sight to behold. Scandal after scandal. Crime. Traffic chaos. Waiting lists. Rorting Ministers. Private polling. Union takeover. Corruption. Unflattering photos. Cartoons. On line polls. And it won’t stop until 6pm on Election Day.

  5. With the influence of newspapers clearly on the wane, one has to wonder how influence the Hun will have in the upcoming State election. Given its support is probably mainly right-wing readers, the blatant misrepresentation headlines are only feeding its own political readership. I guess looking at readership numbers of the Hun and The Age may cast some light on that question. Also voter-weariness of politicians and elections may play a larger role in this election along with State issues.
    Will Mr PPM Turnbull be involved heavily in a State election, given the LNP/ Liberal poor result in Longman, Braddon and Mayo(with his involvement), and will the State Libs play the race-law and order card relentlessly? From my rellies in Melbourne I hear that the Sudanese gang beat-up strategy is basically blown-out as other issues, particularly transport,are more the focus leading up to the vote.
    Matthew Guy’s PP status is a problem and the word is that he is toast if he loses.
    A loss in Victoria would deal a blow to the Feds, particularly as the Murdoch media is pushing the line that the Government is on the way back after 30+ successive Newspoll losses. And on a side issue, if Guy gets up even with his poor PP ratings, how do the Libs spin that with Shortens poor PPM ratings?
    The State election result in SA was not unexpected given a tired, long-term Labor Government, and even then it wasn’t a resounding Liberal victory.
    Victoria shapes as a much more important result for both Parties , but I suspect the Coalition would have a higher level of anxiety. A Liberal win would be spun as a body-blow for Shorten, but a loss would be spun as purely a State result. But there would be no disguising that a loss will put the pressure back on Turnbull.
    An election result to look forward to for its Federal implications. How will the Hun spin its outcome?

  6. Al Pal @ #4 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:04 am

    The Hun? You ain’t see nothing yet. Wait till November and the two to three weeks leading up to Election Day. It will be a sight to behold. Scandal after scandal. Crime. Traffic chaos. Waiting lists. Rorting Ministers. Private polling. Union takeover. Corruption. Unflattering photos. Cartoons. On line polls. And it won’t stop until 6pm on Election Day.

    Isn’t that why big daddy & jerry flew into town this week to organize the troops for the Spring carnival offensive?

  7. Early campaigning indicates that the LNP coalition is going to get a rather big shock on 24 November. Voters are not raising crime as an issue or any scandals – they are more interested in the work Labor is doing to improve public transport, roads, etc. I would say that the coalition will lose a number of key seats with a swing to the government.

  8. Al Pal

    I find the union stuff the funniest in Newscorp. The Australian has endless articles saying how unions are on the wane / losing numbers / relics of the past / soon to vanish etc.

    Then come election time suddenly they are massive and getting bigger, with enormous influence and clout and basically the enemy of democracy (unlike The Australian’s “American” owner!)

    The de-unionisation of labour in the USA in the last 45 years or so is a prime reason for the stalled wages and worse conditions of workers.

  9. Onebobsworth
    One of the issues about readership applying mostly to the conservatives, is that the Hun tends to set the agenda for the evening news grabs. A shonky poll, a minor gaff blown up etc ends up as the story of the day.

  10. Then you read their Letters page – with the same names appearing along with “Joe” from Wherethefuckarewe, all savage on Labor

    No doubt their “contributors” do not exist

    But more to the point with Murdoch is the further write downs on the Balance Sheet resulting in the very large losses – losses which mean no tax liability for a period into the future

    There is a reason the Directors are writing down asset values (as is their statutory obligation to correctly value) and that is that the business model is in decay so not worth what it once was

    It would be interesting to assess the Balance Sheet and the leverage of same because News Corp was a very heavily leveraged Balance Sheet when acquiring media assets back in the day – and now we see those media assets being consistently written down year on year with the impact on Capital and Reserves (and any gearing ratios imposed by the bankers)

    Where is a Tiny Rowlings of Lonro who did what he did to Bond?

  11. There is the News Corp influence at the Phoenix Costello 9 Network where political bias replicates the Murdoch bias including in the Murdoch “community” papers thrown over the fence free, publications it bought from Leader Press

    So Murdoch bias is everywhere – we just trust the wider population is of the view they will not be brow beaten into who they vote for by Murdoch – seeing what has happened in the USA

  12. Observer

    Yes, last financial year Newscorp Australia:

    $2.9 Billion Revenue.

    $0.00 Income Tax. (so good that more tax PAYG money comes out of nearly every person’s salary each week/fortnight than Newscorp pay in a whole year)

    Clearly, obviously, we are in dire need of a lower corporate tax rate in Australia!

  13. Or else, seeing as they are down to ZERO tax, maybe the Coalition could engineer some system to give Newscorp some sort of tax rebate on tax not paid, so they at least get some money from us other Australian taxpayers.

  14. This clearly has sample-size issues, but I thought it curious. I was in an elevator a few weeks ago, in the northern suburbs of Melbourne, with a couple of high-vis Tradies, when one says to the other, ‘Dan Andrews is wrecking this State’ or words to that effect (there may have been some swearing). I think they were somewhat agitated by the safe schools initiative, or maybe it was a dying with dignity matter, FIIK, but I would have thought these were Vic Labor’s men, but it appears the battlers have been well and truly influenced…. I still reckon Dan will win, but Guy shouldn’t even be close….Unfortunately it may be a closer race that I had hoped.

  15. Our great Vic coalition will win the next state election by a landslide and Matthew Guy will be the best premier that Victoria as ever had and Dan Andrews government as been the worst government ever

  16. The question re Guy (whatever his real name is) is his parachuting into the Lower House seat of Bulleen, a seat where a very significant beneficiary (family) of Guy’s Planning Minister decisions treats that seat as their own, dismissing their previously endorsed Member with the same ethnic background as the Donor and beneficiary to accommodate Guy and his ascension to the Leader position

    So, effectively you could be excused for describing thus :- “Thankyou for adding to our fortune as Planning Minister in the Upper House. We would love to see you as Leader because you can look after us even more so here is Bulleen for you. You know we have you by the short and curly ones so what we want we will get Plus, of course, we will continue to donate in exchange for this Gold Medal we have given you”

    Guy is compromised and hopelessly compromised

    The “lobster with the Mobster” is small fry by comparison

  17. Polls show there is little change since last election. With sephamore surge and targeted infrastructure for marginal seats I am cautiously optimistic.

  18. Hopefully Guy will campaign hard on 6 items :
    1) Crime – enough said
    2) Rorting of 400k of taxpayer hard earned wages and a disgraceful 1 million dollars in legals fees trying to cover it up all the way to the high court
    3) Forcing the closure of Hazelwood with a huge royalty increase and increasing power prices and decreasing reliability
    4) Massive blowout in costs in the public service, from 2014/15 to 2018/19 the public service bill has disgracefully blown out by 5.92 billion ( up 25.8%) – Queensland Labor of course have done exactly the same thing when the unions have absolute control. For example the current federal government costs have only increased by 7.2% for the same period or 2.89 billion. Vic Labor must be giving jobs to every union, friend and family mate they can find.
    5) 1.2 billion wasted on the East West link when Andrews said it would not cost a cent ripping up the contract, when Melbourne is growing by over 100,000 people per year and we need every road possible built as soon as we can as congestion gets worse and worse.
    6) The CFA issue is still alive and kicking as another employee went this last week

  19. “Wayne says:
    Sunday, August 12, 2018 at 6:55 pm”…

    Working on Sunday?… Without penalty rates?…. C’mon Wayne, don’t be silly…. Tell your Liberal boss to go and get stuffed…. Have some dignity, mate… 🙂

  20. pica

    I have literally just had the opposite experience – an extended family member who is a fairly conservative person – saying that they can’t believe Coalition should or could possibly get in after their last “do nothing” four years in office. Simply the first time in ten years I have known them that I think I have heard a pro-Labor sentiment. I have since been trying to think of any other political statements I have heard (a person of few words) from them and can only think of moderately pro-Coalition ones.

    The night before the 2010 election I suddenly went into a massive panic and believed (correctly) that Labor was about to lose narrowly. I don’t feel this now – then again I only felt that way right at the end in 2010.

  21. Michael

    The very real problem and the very real danger of the Liberal Party, whatever or whichever they represent now under control of the Bastiaan/Sukkar extreme Right and getting rid of those Sukkar has described, is that they do nothing other than play politics and do not govern

    Hence the knee jerk so called East/West Link in the shadows of the last State election courtesy of internal polling showing they were regarded as a “do nothing” government and that election being presented as a referendum on the project – which the Liberal Party LOST

    Then we had the poisoned pill being the side letters – unknown to the Public Service

    With the MFB/CFA demarcation the C in CFA stands for COUNTRY but, with the growth of Greater Melbourne we now see Tranches of Metropolitan Melbourne serviced by the volunteer COUNTRY fire service, with their operatives consumed by Titles reflecting Rank and perceived importance of self, so an archaic organisation Reflecting its administration and, indeed, the Liberal Party

    Crime?

    Yes, there is crime Always has been always will be hence laws, law enforcement, Police and Courts

    So is Guy going to stop crime?

    The perverse of this promotion of stopping crime is that the former Director of the Liberal Party is in jail for committing crime

    So under the noses of Guy and Kroger there is theft – which is a crime

    Anyone who is of the view that Electoral Offices are not and have not been engaged in electioneering – on BOTH sides – clearly has a political agenda and a discredited political agenda

    The utility resources of the State – including public transport – were sold to private enterprise by Kennett

    Hazelwood was closed by the Private Company to which that former State asset was sold – and their reasons for that closure were plain being an outdated resource reliant on an unsustainable source of energy being coal

    That Global Company is exiting coal, globally in keeping with the requirements of the Global community and to mitigate against the ravages of climate change

    It is understood that the Bastiaan/Sukkar “God botherers” do not subscribe to climate change, which they consider is crap

    The summary is that the Liberal Party is as antiquated as its membership, still living in the past as confirmed by the issues you List

    Society is always evolving courtesy of what human beings have between their ears being brains – so we think and we improve courtesy of that ability to think

    Hence we progress

    And that is the basic reason the Liberal Party is irrelevant to the society of today

    The Liberal Party is about privilege and position – and Pulpits which decry science and progress

    Hence Bastiaan and Sukkar have recruited Family First and Mormons to achieve their control of the now splintered Victorian Branch of the Liberal Party

    Post the State election Bastiaan will succeed Kroger – which is not assessed as politically acceptable prior to the State election

  22. The Liberal party should always be a broad church as they say. If the party shifts too far to the right or have far too many members of parliament from the hard right that will be a big mistake.
    More on the Vic Poll from the Herald Sun,
    1) 57% of voters are less likely to vote for Labor due to the rorts issue. 40% of Labor voters have lost trust due to the rorting.
    2) The Carrum seat is at 51-49 to the Coalition but how can you trust the single seat polls
    3) Eltham is 54-46 to Labor which is better for Labor and are looking good.
    4) In Cranbourne, like Longman One Nation at 10% is cannibalising the Coalition Vote, and Labor is looking good there as well
    5) 33% are more likely to vote for the Coalition for the East West Link policy so that is helpful for the opposition
    6) The Greens vote statewide is static so difficult to grab more seats

  23. Let me fix that for you Michael. Hopefully your Lib staffer IP address has been well hidden.

    1) Crime – it’s falling, and lower than NSW and Qld. Enough said
    2) Rorting of 400k of taxpayer hard earned wages (which has been repaid) and a disgraceful 1 million dollars in legals fees trying to cover it up all the way to the high court. So by that logic, Barnaby and all the others who collected salaries while ineligible should pay those monies back?
    3) Forcing the closure of Hazelwood. Hilarious. Perhaps if the energy sector hadn’t been sold off by Kennett, the owners wouldn’t have driven the plant into the ground, beyond any state of repair.
    4) Massive blowout in costs in the public service, mostly from restoring services cut by the previous Lib govt. No one cares. Schools are being built in growing areas. That’s what people care about.
    5) 1.2 billion wasted on the East West link when people have been hearing the Libs bleat about it for almost four years. Any changing votes shifted a long time ago.
    6) The CFA issue is a complete non-issue.

  24. Why,
    I am not a liberal staffer, I am just not part of the pack of Labor sheep who dominate this site who can’t handle a few home truths that the left side of politics actually have a few issues as well. Don’t like a different point of view, a diversity of opinion is alway better you would think.
    1) Crime – your answer is perfect, I hope Andrews and Labor continue say to the Nov election there is no issue, if something major happens in the shadow of the election good luck with that.
    2) Rorting – you can give no justification for the rorting, you must believe criminal behaviour is a good thing, will not accept Labor have made a massive error of judgement, as for taking it all the way to the high court, obviously you cannot explain that disgraceful action.
    3) Andrews was happy for Hazelwood to close. He made no effort to keep it open for longer and shut it down gradually so the transition was smoother. The Fed government did nothing as well and were dead wrong also for doing nothing.
    4) You accept that Labor have massively blown out the public service and think thats a good thing. When the property market cools, and it will, guess what stuff all stamp duty and other things, the budget will collapse and its Wayne Swan deficits for years to come. If you control spending, when things get tougher you can survive, but Labor never do that, and the Liberals have to always come in and clean up the mess.
    5) The East West Link will remain an issue. The West Gate Tunnel Project Andrews is building is actually an inferior version of the western section of the East West Link. When traffic reaches the eastern end of the WGT Project, the cars will have nowhere to go. It will be built one day.
    6) The CFA Issue has already cost Shorten minority government. Andrews is desperate to get rid of it, but it still could nail him if he continues to give Marshall everything he wants.

  25. “More on the Vic Poll from the Herald Sun”…

    Yeah, sure….
    Latest opinion polls for the Vic State election:
    …………………………………………ALP……..L/NP
    9 Aug 2018 YouGov 51% 49%
    5 Jul 2018 ReachTEL 51% 49%
    13–16 Apr 2018 Newspoll 51% 49%
    Feb–Mar 2018 Newspoll 52% 48%
    Oct–Dec 2017 Essential 51% 49%
    6 Dec 2017 Galaxy 50% 50%
    Jul–Sep 2017 Essential 52% 48%

    Got the idea?

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