Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Malcolm Turnbull’s hitherto surging personal ratings take a turn for the worse, as both sides lose ground on the primary vote and two-party preferred remains as was.

The latest Newspoll, courtesy of The Australian, is the fourth in a row to show Labor leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (down two), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 9% (up two). Malcolm Turnbull’s previously surging personal ratings have collapsed – he is down six on approval 36% and up seven on disapproval to 55%, and his lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-29 to 44-32. Bill Shorten is steady on 32% approval, and down one on disapproval to 56%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

764 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 16
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  2. “Only the LNP could stuff up a $444 million donation to reef protection.”

    Seems like it. What i find gobsmacking is that from a pure raw politics perspective there are sooooooo many ways they could have spent the $ on the GBR and gotten VERY good political mileage out of it………AT THE SAME TIME!! The brains trust in the Coalition have fwarked this up almost beyond belief.

    These people can genuinely not walk and whistle at the same time. Absolute incompetence on many levels.

  3. Darn @ #40 Sunday, August 12th, 2018 – 10:48 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Sunday, August 12, 2018 at 9:53 pm
    So, I reckon that this Newspoll has Labor at at least 52-48 on 2PP if their One Nation preference allocation fandango is taken out. Perhaps as high as 52.5-47.5 on 2016 election preference allocations?

    Yes, but isn’t that just deceiving ourselves? Labor most likely will not get the percentage of preferences from PHON that it managed in 2016. That’s what the adjustment is all about surely.

    Unfortunately, I have to agree. PHON 2nd preferences might be the key. If there is federal data on the evolution of PHON 2nd preferences I’d love to see them.

  12. A drought, falling house prices, falling real wages, zero job growth, an international trade war, a stumbling Europe, an unprecedented changing technological environment and a fearfully job insecure mob of journalists working within a ramshackle hobbled industry deserves a revolution!
    A banking/financial industry riddled with misinformation and theft, a LNP compliant policing sector and a LNP government showing an elitism befitting a crumbling third world regime. And the often inaccurate polls showing a closeness mimicking self-interest and duplicity.
    The voters are frustrated, wanting a return to an honesty of bygone simpler times.
    Turnbull and the Barnaby/Abbott/Pyne/Bishop/Morrison infested LNP are bereft of legitimate dialogue, integrity and practice.
    The danger faced by the voters is the inherent damage left within the institution of government which will require remedial legislation to allow the country to move forward.
    Turnbull giving public money to shonks and spiffy friends, Joyce removing Canberra from Canberra, demonisation of Unions, a corrupt financial sector, nepotism, the undermining of the ABC and egalitarianism vanishing daily, all a disheartening legacy from the Abbott/Turnbull LNP government fostered upon a nation.
    Australia needs an election. Turnbull, consumed by vanity, unable to grasp the need for a truly stateman like decision and trust the voters.
    Perhaps this week, someone will give Turnbull a push. He’ll vanish in an instant. Brigand, imposter.

  14. Just a couple of observations.

    Firstly, I have noticed along the long and winding road of politics which I have observed since I knew what I was actually looking at, that the most successful and long-lived governments of recent political times have had a successful, stable and strong PM-Treasurer combination. Like them or loathe them, Howard and Costello gave those who kept supporting them the feeling that the nation was in good hands, with the big picture stuff (PM) and economically (Treasurer). Ditto +++ with Hawkie and Keating, and to a lesser extent, Rudd and Swanny. Mainly during the GFC.

    So, I am of the very strong feeling that Scott Morrison is not viewed as highly as the above by the electorate and so is not able to give the government the uplift of incumbency to at least get it over 50% in the polls. And the more you find out about him, the more you see that he is captive of and the tool of those who are advising him in his office and the Treasury. He just doesn’t have the natural economic smarts of the others.

    Secondly, that ‘None of the Above 9’ number is interesting. If my parents are anything to go by (Self Funded Retirees), they aren’t voting for Pauline and ON because they think she’s a goose and a loose unit, instead they have been backing Cory’s Australian Conservatives as they peel off the Liberal Party, who they also don’t have much time for under Malcolm. They also still love Tony. *sigh* 🙂

  16. The Courier-Mail has YouGov Galaxy results showing 55-41 in favour of daylight saving in Queensland, but it breaks down to 66-31 for in south-east Queensland and 62-33 against in the rest of the state, illustrating why this is a nightmare issue for governments in both Queensland and Western Australia. Limiting daylight saving to south-east Queensland apparently isn’t a goer: it runs 49-43 against statewide, 51-42 in favour in south-Queensland, and 64-24 against in the rest of the state.

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/its-time-to-bring-on-daylight-saving-in-queensland/news-story/d3a4fc56f0ec49489932e8867bfdefed

  17. Now what for the Coalition?

    2PP in a permanently losing position…
    Further sinking PM…..
    Ideological Civil War raging on in the Liberal Party between Wafflers and Hard Conservatives….
    The People up in arms fed up with inequality, low wages, high costs of living, collapsing/unaffordable services….. in short: The People are fed up with Neoliberalism.

    What’s next for the Waffler from Wentworth and whatever is left of his little army of supporters?

  18. Trump as unpopular as Richard Nixon was when he resigned: poll

    A new poll released this week shows that President Donald Trump is as disliked as President Richard M. Nixon was on the day he resigned from office.

    The Marist College Poll is reporting that only 20% of Americans find Donald Trump’s job performance as “excellent,” with an additional 20% listing him as “pretty good.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/08/trump-unpopular-richard-nixon-resigned-poll/

  19. Would like Labor’s primary vote to be at least a couple of points north of where it is this poll. Still, win’s a win and all that.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    It would appear that a senior NAB manager was slapped on Friday night with a summons to appear at the banking royal commission today. This should prove to be very interesting viewing.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/nab-faces-further-grilling-by-royal-commission-20180812-p4zx0z.html
    Peter Hartcher tells us about Barnaby’s Plan B for the NEG if it goes belly up.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-names-his-price-for-support-of-the-neg-new-pricing-powers-20180810-p4zwui.html
    Dana McCauly reports that the Greens are set to move a motion in the Senate on Monday seeking to pull back the curtain on the calculations behind the federal government’s energy promises. Fair enough I’d say.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/really-doesn-t-cut-it-pressure-mounts-on-turnbull-government-to-reveal-neg-modelling-20180812-p4zx22.html
    According to Phil Coorey the government is fast-tracking plans to underwrite a coal-fired power station as it seeks the support of wavering MPs for the national energy guarantee.
    https://www.outline.com/dYf8Y8
    Ross Gittins has a good look at the suggestion by the Industry Commission to consider introducing public sector banking and superannuation. He sees considerable merit in it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/we-could-increase-bank-and-super-competition-if-we-really-wanted-to-20180810-p4zwp0.html
    Dana McCauly writes about Frydenberg’s rather thin defence of the process to select the GBRF for the $444m sling.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-not-unusual-frydenberg-defends-444m-reef-grant-20180812-p4zwzd.html
    Researcher Nicky Ison writes that consumers aren’t the big winners out of National Energy Guarantee. The Big Three energy companies will be the big winners he says.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/consumers-aren-t-the-big-winners-out-of-national-energy-guarantee-20180811-p4zwyv.html
    Adele Ferguson tells us that NAB and IOOF are just the tip of a very big iceberg when it comes to superannuation dodginess.
    https://www.outline.com/TkzCg6
    Investors should be wary about getting too negative on the banks as the royal commission may prove to be unexpectedly positive, says Fidelity Investments’ Taylor.
    https://www.outline.com/AvZMUs
    This week’s Urban Wronski is headlined, “Turnbull’s leadership a sham as he seeks to evade GBRF scandal, climate change with a dodgy NEG.”
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/08/13/turnbulls-leadership-a-sham-as-he-seeks-to-evade-gbrf-scandal-climate-change-with-a-dodgy-neg/
    More from Phil Coorey as he writes that the recipient of a controversial $443 million grant to help protect the Great Barrier Reef has promised all federal MPs full transparency on how the money is spent. It has also welcomed all forms of scrutiny, be it the current Senate inquiry or a possible probe by the federal Auditor-General.
    https://www.outline.com/pRaXZv
    If the Prime Minister and the Great Barrier Reef Foundation thought the heat would go out of Reefgate over the weekend, they are in for a shock, writes Martin Hirst.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/exclusive-tony-burke-talks-to-ia-labor-to-keep-up-pressure-over-reefgate,11778
    The SMH editorial calls for fair and open examination of allegations against Australian servicemen and women.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/soldiers-deserve-a-full-and-open-hearing-20180812-p4zx2a.html
    And Chris Masters speaks up for the good soldiers in the SASR.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-cats-have-their-own-rules-but-alleged-wrongdoing-by-special-forces-should-surprise-us-20180812-p4zx1b.html
    It is unacceptable for churches that failed to protect children from sexual abuse to still have charity status nine months after the royal commission delivered its final report, a former taxation commissioner has said. Too bloody right!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/13/churches-should-lose-charity-status-over-child-abuse-former-tax-head-says
    The Senate will debate a private member’s bill this week to repeal the 1997 ban on Australia’s territories having authority to legalise voluntary euthanasia. The euthanasia bill has been given priority for the week, with the Senate starting its consideration of the bill tomorrow.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/13/turnbulls-energy-policy-hangs-in-the-balance-as-euthanasia-debate-given-precedence
    The federal government is vowing to put its company tax cuts to a Senate vote next week and then make a quick decision over whether to junk whatever elements of the policy it cannot get through, or take them to the next election.
    https://www.outline.com/4Tcagx
    The UK Guardian says Boris Johnson has created a moment more decisive than ‘rivers of blood’.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/aug/12/boris-johnson-moment-more-decisive-rivers-of-blood
    Middle East expert Colin Rubenstein advises us that Australia needs a clear and consistent position which should be based on Australia’s national interest in robustly addressing the threat posed by a belligerent, expansionist and irresponsible Iran.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/trump-stance-on-iran-heralds-new-reality-for-australia-20180807-p4zw3k.html
    Students with dismally poor high school results are being accepted into university teaching courses, setting off alarm bells about the quality of some Australian educators.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/12/coalition-alarmed-after-students-with-atars-as-low-as-179-accepted-into-teaching
    Remember the ATO’s Nick Petroulias?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-woman-created-from-thin-air-how-despina-became-daphne-icac-20180810-p4zwsj.html

    Cartoon Corner.

    As usual there is a lot to find in this David Rowe contribution.

    Mark David strips Turnbull of his credibility.

    Matt Golding on the GBR.

    Jon Kudelka also has one on the same subject.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/6a92c09eaa9e87b761a6a3544c5bcd62
    A good one from Mark Knight.

    There are a few in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-august-13-2018-20180812-h13vg6.html

  21. Malcolm Turnbull on Alice Springs radio said he was against Euthanasia laws for the territories.

    Senator David Leyonhjelm wants Mr Turnbull to honour his deal to guarantee a vote in both houses on legislation to lift a ban on the Northern Territory and ACT controlling their own euthanasia laws.

    The Liberal Democrats senator said staff witnessed the deal which he says Mr Turnbull agreed to in return for his support for re-establishing the Australian Building and Construction Commission. (AAP)

  22. Sara‏ @_sara_jade_ · 13h13 hours ago

    Cassidy “ What did you & PM do to satisfy yourselves …nobody else out there was better qualified….”.
    Frydenberg rapid blinks 70bpm , normal is 8-10bpm . Lying.
    “ There was extensive due diligence done.” But shakes head no. Verbal & nonverbal don’t match. Lying. #auspol

  23. From Urban Wronski article. What am outrageous rort. Labor should stamp it out when they get in. Bloody Rodent and Hammock Dweller.

    Mal donates all of his $587,852 parliamentary salary to his own charity The Turnbull Foundation,……………The Turnbull Foundation, appears in the Australian Business Register as a “private ancillary fund”, (PAF) a scam invented by the Howard government, in 2001, with all the tax perks of a charity. Only 5% of the value of such funds need be donated annually to other non-profit organisations, who, themselves, hold deductible gift recipient (DGR) and tax concession charity (TCC) status.

    What happens to the rest of the money? Historically, such funds average 8% in donations to such non-profit outfits, a trend which would leave Turnbull a handy 92% tax-free nest-egg. But there’s more. As directors, he and Luce are also entitled to draw tax-free directors’ fees.

  24. Jockeying in the ACT Labor Party prior to their conference and preselections. John Falzon looking a stronger choice for the new seat.

    “By Kirsten Lawson & Katie Burgess
    13 August 2018 — 12:00am

    ACT Labor backbencher Michael Pettersson has sensationally split off from the party’s right faction, a fracture that leaves Chief Minister Andrew Barr without firm factional backing in the Legislative Assembly and threatens to further destabilise the party.

    The ACT parliament’s youngest member said the decision was a long time in the making and came after his progressive politics caused ructions within the right faction.

    Mr Pettersson, who spoke with Mr Barr about his move on Saturday, said he was yet to make a decision on whether he would join the powerful left faction, but it was a “live option”.

    However, his defection comes after the CFMEU ordered its staff last week to join to the left faction, in a rumoured bid to shore up support for preselection candidate John Falzon.

    It’s also been seen by some as part of a broader move to wrest control of the left from the dominant CPSU, however sources close to the union denied that was the case.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/act/labor-backbencher-quits-right-faction-ahead-of-conference-20180812-p4zwzc.html

  25. ABC News‏Verified account @abcnews · 4m4 minutes ago

    “if people reside together, largely communicating their mother tongue, than they are slower integrating in with the mainstream population,” Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs Minister @AlanTudgeMP tells @PatsKarvelas. #NationalWrap #auspol pic.twitter.com/7elpMXyOcv

    1. I wonder what Tudge considers proof of “integration”.
    2. Getting employment is the quickest method of “integration”.
    3. Does Tudge want all migrants to forget their first language and become monolingual?

  26. Looks like I was very wrong about Newspoll netsats. Perhaps ReefGate feeds directly into what people already think about Turnbull.

  28. Boer

    Too early for reefgate to be impacting on polls. We have complained here about its lack of coverage by mainstream media; it’s only just starting to get legs.

  31. zoomster @ #78 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 7:55 am

    Boer

    Too early for reefgate to be impacting on polls. We have complained here about its lack of coverage by mainstream media; it’s only just starting to get legs.

    Zoomster

    I findreefgate encouraging.
    All of last year Turnbull and co were making a gaffe every week. We did not need to get exciting by their latest muddle because we knew there was another coming in a day or so.

    Sadly 2018 has been a relatively gaffe free period. I am encouraged by reefgate – return to normal settings. I am expecting the next one in a day or so.

  32. About two dozen white supremacists marched in Washington on Sunday. In a sign of how much times have changed, not only were they way outnumbered by normal people rallying to denounce racism, but check out the police flanking their march – mostly African-American.

  33. Good Morning

    I tend to agree with Andrew Earlwood on the One Nation preferences. We have some hard evidence from the Longman by election.

    Its why the LNP are going to lose in Queensland. Its why Dutton is in trouble. 🙂

    Remember the polling before the Super Saturday elections and the actual results. The polling spin did not do the LNP any favours at all.

  34. John Wren tweets

    I always said eliminating Gillard’s ETS was one of the most irresponsible myopic acts of political vandalism ever wreaked on Australia. Skyrocketing power prices and the entirely pointless #NEG fiasco are the end result. Vote these idiots out. It’s time. #auspol

  35. JenAuthor@11:23am on 12/08/2018
    “He’d be more progressive. He was’t/isn’t”
    He never will be. Proof is in the reports that he has set aside a pot of gold to build coal-fired power stations to get party approval for NEG.

  36. lizzie @ #76 Monday, August 13th, 2018 – 4:40 am

    ABC News‏Verified account @abcnews · 4m4 minutes ago

    “if people reside together, largely communicating their mother tongue, than they are slower integrating in with the mainstream population,” Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs Minister @AlanTudgeMP tells @PatsKarvelas. #NationalWrap #auspol pic.twitter.com/7elpMXyOcv

    1. I wonder what Tudge considers proof of “integration”.
    2. Getting employment is the quickest method of “integration”.
    3. Does Tudge want all migrants to forget their first language and become monolingual?

    Ummmmm

    You mean like the Germans in the Barossa and the Greek and Italian migrants after the war.

    Yeah, that turned out so bad!

    F#$king idiot!!!!

  38. But his commentary on their looks was in keeping with a long-running tendency by Mr. Trump. He has attacked women who criticize him as having faces “like a dog.” He has denied accusations of unwanted sexual advances toward women by telling people to “look at her.”

    He has also denigrated the physical appearance of female political rivals. “Look at that face!” he said of Carly Fiorina, one of his Republican primary opponents, to a Rolling Stone reporter aboard his private plane in 2015.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/12/us/politics/trump-tweets-lisa-page-nellie-ohr.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Why is it that it is invariably the most unattractive and repulsive men who always denigrate women for their looks? Trump is a classic case in point.

  39. Imacca@12:26am
    “These people can genuinely not walk and whistle at the same time”
    They are so incompetent that even with proper legs they cannot walk let alone whistle. I think they don’t know how to whistle.

  40. Imacca@12:26am
    “These people can genuinely not walk and whistle at the same time”
    They are so incompetent that even with proper legs they cannot walk let alone whistle. I think they don’t know how to whistle.

  42. Given that DT headline Turnbull is in a world of trouble. Polling has been clear people do not want taxpayers money to pay for coal plants. I think Murdoch has issued instructions to be on the winning side

  43. On Queensland daylight savings.

    I don’t know why they don’t simply divide the sate into two time zones in summer. South east Queensland could adopt Eastern Summer Time and the rest of the State could stay on Eastern Standard Time for the duration.

    I know it’s fun poking ‘country folk’ over their fear, presumed ignorance and loathing of daylight savings however there are actually some sound reasons for the position (no – I’m not talking about saving the curtains or the cows). The further west one travels the earlier the sun sets. Similarly, the closer to the equator one is the less variance there is between daylight hours and night hours year round. At the heart of it, that’s why Queenslanders in the west and the north of the state hate the idea. On the other hand folk in south east Queensland hate the sun getting up at 4am during summer. ….

  44. “Proof is in the reports that he has set aside a pot of gold to build coal-fired power stations to get party approval for NEG.”

    Ok, its dickhead idea for a lot of reasons. But….. just from the politics perspective?? They are being pinged big time over the GBRF $, the RC that they steadfastly opposed is underway and telling everyone how the Libs mates in the banks et al have been ripping people off, and our Michealia has certain propriety “issues” to deal with……

    They really want to do a “captains call” about a bucket of $ that will dwarf the GBRF funding?? AND actually prove that Malcoms arse belong Tony and Beetrooter big time??

    That would be really really stupid

  45. Guytaur

    I am waiting to see tae actual Longman preference distribution. It is not up yet

    However my back of the envelope calculations are encouraging. There was a 9.5% swing from the Libs and Labor picked ou 4.5%. So making a GUESS let us assume that the rest of Lib swing were irate liberals for whom the PHON or other vote was a protest but which will return to the Libs.

    Spo here is what I am thinking. Add 8)% of the greens and other lefty type paries eg Science Party to labor ALP picked up 8.6% then out of a possible 22.7 from PHON and tjhe rest of th assortedmnors.

    If yopu take out that 5% of Liberal proester then you get about 50% of preferences (oh I added 1% to ALP from the donkey vote).

    Fairly encouraging.

  46. Morning all.

    I gather Cormann has been asked about Reefgate this morning

    Kristina Keneally
    @KKeneally
    ·
    28m
    Hey @MathiasCormann – I just heard you said that only @DavidLeyonhjelm raised #ReefGate at #Estimates –
    That’s not true.

    I recall
    @AnthonyChisholm
    @SenKimCarr
    @SenatorSurfer @RichardDiNatale
    @SenClaireMoore
    and me
    asking too.

    #DueDiligence Turnbull style

  47. So there will be support for a new coal power plant. Presumably funds allocated will guarantee a customer and provide ‘leverage’.
    Even if nothing eventuates, they will want a commercial firm to make encouraging noises in time for the next election.

    Tin foil hat alert.

    This is the sort of task within Lucien’s competency, get his business mates to put forward an attractive proposal.
    Who perhaps?
    From Urban’s article today on the GBRF.
    Enter stage right The Great Barrier Reef Foundation (GBRF) whose foundation chairman’s panel comprises big polluters; CEOs of BHP, Commonwealth Bank, Deloitte Australia, Lendlease and Deutsche Bank as well as representatives from Rio Tinto, Shell, AGL and Peabody Energy.

  49. My attitude to daylight saving is evolving. I used to be in favour of it but over time have just gotten used to doing everything in the mornings in summer when it’s light but also cooler. The summer days here are long enough that you can be at work until 6pm and still get home while it’s still light outside.

  50. DTT

    Oh dear I may have to revise my opinion 😆

    Seriously I think you are not far off the mark. 🙂

    Edit: That primary vote with the two in front of it had to go somewhere

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