The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.
The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).
BiGD,
Because it’s all cynically viewed as grist for her anti-Labor mill. Sad.
Pegasus is a troll who aims to inflame and incite.
Why people bother to engage with her is anyone’s guess.
Since there have been last minute polls for the three less uncertain seats, presumably there will be polls later tonight for Longman and Braddon.
Pegasus is not a troll. It is absurd to claim that she is. The claim that she is a troll is based on the false assumption that William Bowe’s intention is to create a safe, trigger-free space for Labor partisans to hang out. That isn’t the purpose. The common denominator is an interest in psephology and politics. The fact that many diehard Labor supporters post here is a coincidence, not evidence of the blog’s purpose.
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
1m1 minute ago
#Newspoll Federal Seat of #Braddon 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 LIB 49 #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
40s41 seconds ago
#Newspoll Federal Seat of #Longman 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 LNP 49 #auspol
“Mr Gray said he wrote to Ms Murnain last June about his experience on the campaign and his ideas to improve party processes, but did not receive a response. He said he has not given evidence to the Whelan investigation because he has not been approached and does not trust the process.
A spokesperson for NSW Labor confirmed the party had received Mr Gray’s letter by email, but it had not been opened “as the party was experiencing a large volume of correspondence at the time”.
::::::
This correspondence has been referred to the investigation. Given how important these issues are, the delay in responding to Mr Gray’s concerns are obviously regretted. We assure him his concerns will be addressed.”
Mr Gray doesn’t seem convinced by the process.
Things are escalating at the Ecuadorian Embasy;
“Situation appears heightened at the Ecuadorian embassy #london all of a sudden. Ambassador car arrived @ speed. He jumped out running. He’s always previously looked for my attention to exchange waves. Driver more so. Neither did so. Jo & I from Catholic Worker & 3 RT here now”
https://twitter.com/CiaronOReilly/status/1022773732761370626
Its looking pretty grim for Assange, the only bargaining Ecuador is doing is for a commitment not to execute him
‘BREAKING: Ecuadorian president Lenin Moreno says he DID discuss Assange with UK government this week and says, “the only person I haven’t spoken to is Mr. Assange” and that the “only thing” he wants is a guarantee that Assange won’t be executed’
https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/1022809601023139842
I know most people here have no empathy towards him, but he deserves better than this, anyone does…
Zoidlord @ #2505 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 10:33 pm
You’re satirizing?
Wow, I think?
(Single seat poll disclaimer here)
@Nicholas
The same could be said for Diehard Greenies or whatever flavor party you working for these days.
@ A R
Nope, Check GhostWhoVotes.
Well if those polls are accurate the media have a lot of humble pie to eat.
Thanks Zoidlord for the polls. I must have looked at Ghost just before he posted the results.
The online bookies might be adjusting their odds for Longman overnight.
#Newspoll Federal Seat of #Longman 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 LNP 49 #auspol
#Newspoll Federal Seat of #Braddon 2 Party Preferred: ALP 51 LIB 49 #auspol
Nicholas
Cheers.
The stridency, derision, ad hominems and general all round lack of civility from the usual handful of Laborite detractors, says more about them than me.
Yawn,
Can’t you guys wait 24 hours?
That’s a whole day
Oh please the couple love from Nick and Peg.
You guys attack labor every day with anti-Labor links and articles and not one supportive of Labor.
Don’t deserve anything.
What was the final Batman poll?
I agree with you on this Zoidlord. It’s bloody true.
The “Liberals” will lose all three by-elections that they are contesting tomorrow. Malcolm Turnbull will be damaged but still standing, with discontent broiling just below the surface and Peter Dutton waiting in the wings.
The Government will limp along, losing narrowly in May 2019. Labor under Bill Shorten will prove popular. Riding high in the polls, but constantly blocked by a rabidly Right Wing and populist party under Opposition Leader Dutton, with scandals emerging from nearly 6 years of Coalition mismanagement and instances of outright corruption on the part of the former Coalition Government uncovered, Shorten Labor will go to a double dissolution at the first opportunity (August 2021). It will win a thumping majority in the Reps with a Labor Green majority in the Senate.
The Coalition’s old hands retire on their generous pensions, sinecures and nest eggs hidden in tax havens. Meanwhile, the up and coming generation of “Liberals” have no interest in multiple terms in Opposition and concentrate on making money. Shorten retires at a time of his choosing in 2031, having passed Howard’s time in office, handing over to Labor’s next generation.
The new Labor PM, first elected to Parliament in 2019, and King Charles III, celebrate the founding of the Australian Republic on January 1, 2032. The IPA has long since been disbanded. Newscorp Australia was broken up and sold in the late 2020s. Australia is a world leader in renewables. It has close to the highest standard of living in the world.
The country is in good hands.
Eamonn Fitzpatrick
@EamonnFitz
2h2 hours ago
Eamonn Fitzpatrick Retweeted The Courier-Mail
Hanson wants cops taken off the beat to protect her cardboard cut outs. #qldpol
“Hanson wants cops taken off the beat to protect her cardboard cut outs. #qldpol”
Quite obviously the Pauline cardboard cut outs should be guarded by cardboard cut outs of burly policemen.
sprocket_ @ #2514 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 8:42 pm
Seat polls.
Isn’t Pauline cruising the high seas trying to stop boats or something?
I am not going to take those polls as being too indicative … but I’d really like to! 😆
Pegasus and other posters who are to the left of the ALP do not accuse Labor supporters on William’s blog of being trolls. So no, the same cannot be said of those posters. It is almost entirely Labor supporters who trot out the ridiculous accusation of trolling.
@Confessions
Or helping the Tories to stop Migrants in UK for brexit.
She is supposed to be back tomorrow Fess.
I think most people would prefer the cardboard version. Don’t talk back with that nasally twang
jenauthor – For Batman, I don’t think there was any public polling released in the last week.
@Nicholas
troll:
‘is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers’
Someone who continues to post negative anti-Labor content only.
Thanks Leroy – am just wondering whether seat polling gets more accurate closer to the day like general election polling appears to
If William’s purpose was to provide a comfortable hang-out space for Labor supporters, the behaviour that you describe could indeed be described as trolling. But I think you misunderstand what this blog is for. We are all William’s guests. Labor supporters are not a protected species on this blog. There is nothing special about them. They get to post, and people to the left or to the right of Labor get to post too.
I for one will brag that tomorrow I will, with my single vote, strike a blow against the ‘Steal From the Poor to Give to the Rich Party”. Oi Oi Oi.
C@tmomma is completely correct re. the investigation into Ms Husar.
It will only be into specific allegations, not whether she is nice person (or not). It will also only include her time as a Federal MP.
I am surprised at the lynch mob mentality around here condemning Ms Husar. One person even commented that there were a lot of complaints… so she must have done *something* wrong. What an idiotic thing to say, and worse, an *unjust* thing to say.
She is entitled to have the case against her evaluated under the principles of natural justice and administrative fairness. Kibbitzing of the result by people who cannot possibly have a clue about the evidence is particularly sickening. If we still had public executions these ghouls would probably turn up.
Let the investigation proceed without the snide comments and the prejudgment. Everyone deserves a fair hearing or we’re no better than animals.
Calm down people. Bill took the day off because their internal polling confirmed that all contested seats are in the bag.
Of course she is, conveniently timed I’m sure. 🙂
“She is supposed to be back tomorrow Fess.”
Ahhh…..thats PHON totally screwed them?? 🙂
BB
It’s a matter of simple probability that if there are more complaints, there is a higher chance some are valid. 20 doesn’t mean it’s definite but the odds are very high there will be adverse findings.
Longman LNP 51/49 ALP
Braddon. LNP 51/49 ALP
So our great LNP are going to be the first government to take a seat of a opposition first time in 100 years and will go on to win the next election by a landslide
I used to laugh at them when we got a couple hot days.
They have no idea. 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/27/whinge-brits-australians-heat-temperatures-heatwave
Wayne you meant ‘off’ not ‘of’ Dunderhead!
Wayne If Turnbull loses the lot tomorrow, who will have the courage to stand against him. The back benchers can hear the clock ticking. Will he step aside gracefully or fight to the death because he believes he is the chosen one.
Who is in the front line to take the chalice- ScoMo, Dutton, Abbott, Perhaps the deputy with the pearls?
MT has let down the CPG, MSM, Murdoch, he’s got to go.
boomy1 @ #2542 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 9:09 pm
Actually, both would be correct.
“of” implies possession of the seat.
The error follows,
… an opposition for the first …
Turnbull has said he’s backing Downer to run again in 2019 no matter how badly she loses. Dolly must have put the hard word on him.
Hey Barney stop messing with my head, I know that Wayne’s World is alive like a thing that shouldn’t be alive but just is. Don’t go all teacher on me I can’t cope.lolz
comeuppance
kʌmˈʌp(ə)ns/
noun informal
noun: comeuppance; plural noun: comeuppances; noun: come-uppance; plural noun: come-uppances
a punishment or fate that someone deserves.
“he got his comeuppance in the end”
synonyms: just deserts, deserved fate, due, due reward, just punishment, retribution, requital; archaic recompense
“in those films the villain always got his comeuppance”
http://jimllpaintit.tumblr.com/
Love this bloke.
Jenauthor:
The only poll I could find was this one on Wikipedia:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batman_by-election,_2018
18–20 Feb 2018 Lonergan Research
sample size:693
primaries: lab:40% grn:39% oth:16%
2pp: lab:53% grn: 47%
Final:
Primaries: 43.1% 39.5% 17.4%
2pp: 54.4% 45.6%