Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Diogenes (AnonBlock)
    Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 11:48 pm
    Comment #2545

    Turnbull has said he’s backing Downer to run again in 2019 no matter how badly she loses. Dolly must have put the hard word on him.

    Golly, Imagine that, that in situation of peril someone from the Liberal Party would stand up and rescue you. Thngs are crook in Liberal Land.

  2. But that’s antithetical to, like, their entire social philosophy.

    They have not got a social philosophy. They just want to teach us who to hate. That’s all. Just the usual scumbags.

  3. Don’t wake me up next time there’s a Blood Moon in confluence with the occlusion of Mars or whatever was supposed to have happened last night at 4.30am fer Chrissake.

    Of all the places to put a cloud in the sky, they had to pick right between my spot and a once in a lifetime astronomical event.

    That’s it for me and listening to eager scientists on the radio creaming their lab coats about “Must See” events.

  4. BB
    I stumbled outside at 5.30 up here on the Sunshine Coast and all I saw was the sun on the horizon, clouds and a few twinkling stars. Made a cup of tea and went back to bed with my bloody iPad. Is there some election on today? Christ.

  5. Trump appears ‘smack dab in the middle of a conspiracy to defraud the United States’: Ex-prosecutor on MSNBC

    President Donald Trump could have even more legal liability if his longtime fixer, Michael Cohen, is correct in his claims that Donald Trump, Jr. informed his father before a meeting with Russian operatives promising dirt on Hillary Clinton.

    Both Trumps have denied the veracity of Cohen’s allegations.

    “If the government can prove that Donald Trump knew about the meeting with the Russians ahead of time — knew at least generally the purpose of the meeting — and gave it the go-ahead, he is smack dab in the middle of a conspiracy to defraud the United States by the process of fair elections with the Russians,” the MSNBC legal analyst explained.

    “No one should underestimate how big this is, if it’s true, in terms of putting Trump in the middle of a criminal conspiracy,” she concluded.


  6. Avenatti taunts Giuliani for flaming out in CNN interview: ‘You’re the best lawyer we have working for us’

    The attorney for adult film star Stormy Daniels took to Twitter on Friday morning to ridicule President Donald Trump’s legal advisor, Rudy Giuliani, over his appearance on CNN Thursday night, where the former New York mayor attempted to dismiss the latest bombshells plaguing the president.

    With Giuliani struggling to defend President Trump on CNN, attorney Michael Avenatti took a jab at him.

    “@RudyGiuliani I saw your interview last night with @ChrisCuomo. Thank you! You are the best lawyer we have working for us on our team (and for free). Keep up the great work. Please don’t stop making public statements,” he wrote.


  7. Al Pal, Her Indoors needed to be up because she goes to dragon boat racing training (I kid you not) on Saturday mornings.

    As for me, my mistake was to last night express a vague interest in careening out onto the deck to have a sticky at the heavens this morning.

    Thus vague interest became ugly reality at 4.25am when HI came bashing at my door in Gestapo fashion.

    All to watch a backlit cloud. Sheesh.

  8. I still believe our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon from the ALP

    LNP 53/47 Longman
    LNP 54/46 Braddon

    So our great LNP will be the first government to win a seat from a opposition in 100 years and Go Turnbull our great PM all the way to victory in 2019………

  9. Morning all. Good luck to all campaigning for Labor today, and Sharkey in Mayo. Given the nasty populism PHON and others have stooped to, I wish them nothing at all. If you have to demonise immigrants to win, you deserve to lose.

    The Trump/FBI poster is brilliant.

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe reports that Labor has launched a last-ditch campaign on school funding in a bid to hold its ground at crucial byelections on Saturday, assuring Catholic schools they will get more cash after making similar pledges on health and hospitals.
    Peter Hartcher examines the Longman byelection and says One Nation holds all the cards.
    Meanwhile the SMH editorial tells us that Hanson is playing voters as fools. It says Hanson’s One Nation has shown it lacks the intellectual capacity or moral integrity to represent them.
    Simon Benson writes that if the polls are accurately reflected in today’s key by-elections of Longman and Braddon, it will be good news for Bill Shorten. He tells us that Turnbull has yet to master a big-picture strategy to counter Shorten’s class-war narrative.
    This is an excellent contribution from Richard Dennis on Australian voting patterns and media coverage. He looks very closely at Mayo.
    Mayo voters are not too sure what Georgina Downer stands for.
    Karen Middleton tells us all about the grubby tactics that have been rolled out for Super Saturday.
    Peter Hannam explains that many are calling for the Turnbull government and regulators to release the modelling underpinning the National Energy Guarantee to reassure the public that projected savings are real. Too right they should!
    Peter van Onelen writes about the significant debate that will hit the federal parliament in the weeks after it returns from the winter recess: David Leyonhjelm’s private member’s bill to allow the territories to enact euthanasia laws if they so wish.
    A bombshell announcement from police could not have come at a worse time for the Andrews government writes Farrah Tomazin.
    ABC radio is suffering a slow, significant decline.
    Journalists at the 160 regional newspapers owned by Fairfax Media say they are not sure what the future holds after the company’s $4bn takeover by Nine.
    Julia Baird explains who gets to go on “The Drum”.
    Mike Seccombe explores the funding of the IPA.
    Here Michael West explains how the sugar lobby wins friends and targets enemies.
    Tony Wright tells us that Paul Keating’s loathing of all things Packer will never die.
    John McDuling writes that the Fairfax-Nine’s deal is set to reshape the media landscape, and not everyone is thrilled about it.
    Michael Pascoe says that with the merger it’s back to the past with not a synergy in sight.
    The Independent Australia says that the takeover of Fairfax by Nine is the most consequential change in Australian media ownership in 31 years — and a time of great mourning.
    Alex McKinnon writs that in remote Australia, locals have a term for politicians who fly in, squawk a bit, and fly out – they’re called cockatoos. Malcolm Turnbull’s visit to Tennant Creek this week showed all the signs.
    Crispin Hull says Australia should make it clear we will seek the Russian President’s extradition when he visits the US. A rather forlorn hope one would think.
    Trump’s long time confidant and former lawyer Michael Cohen poses a radical new threat to the US president, claiming Mr Trump knew in advance of a 2016 meeting at Trump Tower with Russian representatives.
    In a light-hearted article Ian Warden describes Trump as a kind of Archbishop of Canterbury who has never read the Bible.
    The AFR looks at the future of Australian media in the light of the Nine-Fairfax deal.
    Claire Thurstans is happy that, with My Health Record, Finally, Australians give a damn about privacy.
    Martin Hirst examines the “Trump Derangement Syndrome”.
    Turnbull has the internet talking about the right way to consume a meat pie
    Nick Toscano exposes just how much AFL clubs are ripping off pokie players.
    According to the Washington Post the actions of Trump’s long time attorney Michael Cohen appear to be driven by outrage and betrayal.
    Turnbull and LNP Longman candidate Trevor “Big Trev” Ruthenberg have felt the heat while campaigning in the Queensland seat of Longman after being confronted by voters at a hotel at Sandstone Point.
    Centrelink is getting desperate in its attempts to explain call waiting times and abandonments.
    Elizabeth Farrelly explains how farmers’ own “conservative” side of politics has signed them up to a GSG invasion that can commandeer their land and destroy their water with negligible benefit to them but massive risk – health, legal, moral, property, financial and environmental. It’s unclean, unhealthy and catastrophically unfair.
    Telstra CEO Andy Penn is poised to announce a major management restructuring as early as Monday as the telco tries to reshape itself.
    Here we are told that In the immediate future Imran Khan must unite a fractured, polarised society and face down claims of election rigging. He must also somehow play the military if he wants to implement aspects of his policy, such as closer ties with arch-rival India.
    Dennis Cometti has some very good ideas on how to “fix” the AFL game.
    Adele Ferguson with a nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe gives us the Longman sausage sandwich.

    And he has a look at what media Saturdays might become.

    Zanetti can’t hide his (and his employer’s) glee here.

    From the US.

    Jon Kudelka gets this one right.

    And he puts the Hanson cardboard cutouts to work.
    Glen Le Lievre and the takeover.

    Mark Knight also gives us one on the takeover.

    And he has a view on how the AFL might trial some rule changes.

    Roy Taylor isn’t that convinced!

    Sean Leahy with the leaders diving for the line in Longman.

    Jon Kudelka and intrusive mobile phones.

    And he drags a good one from the archives.

    Have a look here at Kudelka’s Twitter stream here as he hauls out many of his best.
    MUST SEE! David Pope does a real job on Georgina Downer.
    More in here.

  11. I really think Avenatti will be taking a run at the WH next go around.

    He has been making himself a ‘people’s choice’ in the Trump mould but with a more ethical image.

  12. Soc,
    Yes that picture is spot on! I often find things like that on Twitter and especially in the comments to popular Tweeters like Rep Adam Schiff. People do them and put them in their replies to his Tweets. I can’t resist putting them up here! 🙂

  13. BK,
    The Outline article by Simon Benson and the one about what does Georgina Downer stand for, both do not go to the artices but to the Outline ‘About’ page. Is this a new form of blocking?

  14. Primaries in Longman and Braddon:

    #Newspoll Federal Seat of #Longman Primary Votes: ALP 40 LNP 36 ON 14 #auspol

    #Newspoll Federal Seat of #Braddon Primary Votes: ALP 40 LIB 43 Garland IND 8 GRN 5 #auspol

  15. Al Pal, I am NOT an “elderly gentleman”. Only the other day Her Indoors told me that I have the emotional intelligence of an 18 year old.

  16. I am tipping the ON vote is lower than 14% in the final washout.

    Like the Greens, they often poll lower in actuality … but then again Longman IS in Qld … another country really 😆

  17. Benson in the Oz joins those MSM people who are starting to backtrack from the “knives are out for Bill” theme:

    If the polls are accurately reflected in today’s key by-elections of Longman and Braddon, it will be good news for Bill Shorten…

    The electorates are in the top 10 marginal Labor-held seats. They were surprise wins at the last election and any suggestion Labor should have increased their margins for these by-elections, considering the fiasco that triggered them, is fantasy…

    While the Liberals have improved on their primary vote in Braddon, it does not appear to be enough to get them over the line. This suggests that Malcolm Turnbull has yet to master a big-picture strategy to counter Shorten’s class-war narrative.

    Longman presents a unique but equally troubling issue.

    The LNP has an obvious structural weakness that allowed failed Newman government MP Trevor Ruthenberg to win preselection without the proper due diligence, which would have exposed and rectified the military medal fiasco before it became a disaster.

    The other is a greater dilemma. The LNP clearly has not worked out a strategy to deal with One Nation. Pauline Hanson’s vote is still five points higher than the last election.


  18. Wayne says:
    Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 6:54 am

    I still believe our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon from the ALP

    LNP 53/47 Longman
    LNP 54/46 Braddon

    Given the polls I am looking forward to tonight post; you are going to post?

  19. Simon Benson now going for a foot in each camp … but STILL has to add that Shorten is cooked if he loses … what will he say if there is a move toward Labor? Will he only be mildly sunburned?

  20. Morning all.

    I’m enjoying some of the lunar eclipse photos around the place. Of course it was cloudy and raining here so no joy, but some of my facebook friends who live inland had clear skies and have posted amazing pics.

  21. I will be going no where as I know our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon and go on to win the next election

  22. Chances are, we won’t know definitive results tonight if the numbers of postals is any indication:

    The final number of votes cast at early voting centres across the five #2018byelections electorates was just under 83k. With over 43k postal vote applications on top that leaves around 370k by-election voters to come through our polling places today. #auspol

  23. Coincidentally some of us bludgers were discussing Glen Greenwald other day….

    @Malcolm Nance
    Oh Snap!
    #DrugTestTheFarmers – #AbolishICE
    Replying to @MalcolmNance
    Russia if you’re listening, help Glenn find his missing 27,000 tweets!
    Malcolm Nance
    Malcolm Nance
    Malcolm Nance
    Malcolm Nance
    There is only one reason someone does this extensive level of cover up on his past statements. To hide the past. Criminal exposure to the Trump-Russia scandal via Assange? Snowden? What do you think?
    Idrees Ahmad
    This is extraordinary. @theintercept founder @ggreenwald, who in the past has called people who delete their tweets “cowards”, appears to have deleted over 27,000 on July 22nd. This seems to be a very deliberate & systematic purge. Some I’ve checked relate to Russia & Syria (link: https://twitter.com/eliot_woodrich/status/1022322122197090304) twitter.com/eliot_woodrich…
    Show this thread

  24. It’s all starting to come out now that Cohen is cooperating with authorities.

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    1h1 hour ago
    Trump vs. Cohen: What did Trump know and when did he know it? https://cnn.it/2mU1nCt @TheLeadCNN

  25. Victoria

    Not really!

    Back when I was in an electoral office, although it was common knowledge that staff and electoral office resources were used in campaigning, it was also common knowledge that they’re not meant to be…but that was some time ago and I don’t know if the rules changed (I suspect not…)

  26. jenauthor says:
    Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 8:58 am
    Simon Benson now going for a foot in each camp … but STILL has to add that Shorten is cooked if he loses … what will he say if there is a move toward Labor? Will he only be mildly sunburned?

    I think Simon needs to keep his employer happy by including the sentence about Shorten at the end of the article.

    An unbiased observer might ask the question: why did this Newspoll include a question on voting intention with Albanese as Labor leader, without also asking voting intention with Dutton as Liberal leader?

  27. Zoomster

    There was a report conducted early in year. Recommendations were made, which Labor have implemented. Also at time, Labor repaid these funds. So it begs the question, why a criminal investigation now and Who made the complaint?

  28. If you want to follow them on Twitter…


    Follow @BuzzFeedOzPol’s reporters on the ground for the latest on #SuperSaturday!

    @lanesainty is in BRADDON
    @joshgnosis is in LONGMAN
    @elfy_scott is in MAYO

  29. There are many pn here who are convinced the US is our great ly and saviour and that the enemies of the US are by default our enemies.

    This thinking is pretty common but I think it is pretty ahistorical. In other words even a cursory study of Western history over the last 500 years seems to indicate that “empires rise ans fall with successive empires hitting peaks roughtly 50 years apart.

    Each “empire” has an initial consolidation phase that is pretty much within ts near borders, then an expansion phase when it hits its peak. The peak phase when it is the unrivaled top of the pops seems to last roughly 50 -100 years until a new challenger emerges.

    Thus around 1500-1550 the Ottoman Empire was top of the pops, replaced by Portugal, then Spain , then Holland, then Britain (which took a dive in the mid 1700s with the loss of the US but revived to more or less have a second peak although in the period France, Austria, Russia and Germany challenged their dominance). broke the rule and stayed top or nearly top of the pops for nearly 200 years).

    Now we recognise that British dominance ended in 1918 but it took until 1950 for that to be more or less accepted.

    From 1950 the dominant world power has been the USA both economically and militarily, but history rarely shows great powers holding on to dominance much more that 100 years (Please no Roman stuff – I am talking modern history). Thus history should tell us to EXPECT a major US rival to emerge challenge it economically and militarily.

    China is that rival today.

    meher baba @ #2235 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 1:54 pm

    Burgey: “Read the other day Labor is running an active postal vote campaign, unlike 2016.”

    I don’t recall hearing that Labor didn’t run an active postal vote in the 2016 election. That seems unlikely to me.

    boomy1 @ #2498 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 10:24 pm

    Pegasus, if three people tell you you’re a horse. You’re a horse.


    Classic illogical thinking, governed by group think.

    If three people who do not know one another, have no friends in common and do not read the same. books (scientific or MSN etc) each say you are a horse, them there is very high likelihood that you are indeed a horse.

    If however all three have read only Aristotle on the topic (OK thinking of him on women’s teeth but the point remains) and are governed or heavily influenced by his definition which is possibly wrong, then three people saying you are horse is actually only 1 person calling you a horse.

    Can you see the logic. History is replete with such eg Galileo, most early medical discoveries (think our very own two Western Australians who were accused of many, many things by ALL the MS medicos. Till they got the Nobel prize.

    Group think is in fact the normal for nearly every one of us. it is easy and comfortable. he is a horse, the sun goes round the earth, ulcers caused by stress etc, these are accepted norms which at the time everyone accepts.

    You repeating that absurd idea that if three people call you a horse you are a horse is anti-scientific and potentially repressive clap trap.

  30. why did this Newspoll include a question on voting intention with Albanese as Labor leader, without also asking voting intention with Dutton as Liberal leader?

    Because the media havent been beating up a challenge to Turnbull even tho he has been behind in a gazillion polls, policy debacles in the NBN and NEG, backbenchers have threatened to cross the floor, senior MPs speaking out against government policy, and a split resulting in the Australian Conservatives.

    You know it makes perfect sense. The CPG are smart people who have thought it through and have their hand on the…..ummmm…. pulse of the Australian electorate.

  31. Meher

    I had thought of replying but a really bad cold sent me to my bed instead.

    I am CERTAIN that by and large the ALP did not put in a huge effort on postals at the last election. Something about it being less cost effective than other forms of campaigning. I am not sure I agree with that strategy but it would not surprise me at all if in this election there will be much, much more attention on postals, given higher resourcing etc.

  32. Davidwh says:
    Saturday, July 28, 2018 at 8:47 am
    Good morning. Is Bill gone yet?

    Good morning David. Love your sense of humour.

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