Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  5. I was wondering whether Munro Hanrahan would be one of the first to post on this thread.

    Rooned. Rooned!

  6. James Raynes
    ✊
    ‏

    @jimmyraynes
    10h

    Which are you more worried about – “African gangs”, or having to share the road with Liberal MPs who blow almost 4 times the legal limit? #springst

  7. MSM media into KillBill overdrive in the past month, plus several Labor missteps, plus ‘fuzzy thinking’ amongst the remanant ‘Howard Battlers’ over personal tax cuts has seen what can only been seen as a suatained narrowing.

    Come on Brian. Call it! It’s a genius move reminiscent of Austerlitz. They won’t see you coming. Election now!

  9. Happy to see Labor still leading – the trend continues.

    Meanwhile dinosaurs do coexist with modern humans:
    Corporate Democrats are extremely worried about the wave of progressive enthusiasm that is sweeping the country in red and blue states alike, and—according to reporting by NBC News on Sunday—they are beginning to organize a “counterrevolution” to beat it back.
    https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/07/22/terrified-progressive-enthusiasm-sweeping-nation-corporate-democrats-have-begun

  10. Considering the PB discussions on populations numbers, I think this is worth re-posting. It sets out the options rather well.

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/07/how-should-australia-cut-immigration/

    “Smoke and mirrors”. That’s the best way to describe the current state-of-play regarding Australia’s immigration debate from both major parties.

    The Weekend Australian’s front page proclaimed “Turnbull tackles population”, trumpetting the fake 21,000 cut to the permanent migrant intake and the Coalition’s new immigration management brain fart: migrant tag and release in the bush.

    …Totally unmanageable, of course, without migrant proof fences and satellite tracking bracelets. Moreover, there was no mention of the surge in bridging visas by 40,000 over the past year (and 90,000 since 2014) as migrants await to hear their applications for permanent residency:

  11. chris murphy
    ‏@chrismurphys
    23m

    Totally neglected , forgotten & dispossessed indigenous Australians now suddenly found as a future project with byelections due. ‘High on his agenda!’ Turnbull finds an aboriginal baby to hug for his Rupert Murdoch Support Team. The Abbott trick. #sickening #auspol

  12. Trumble’s selfie trip to Tennant Creek was all about CLP candidate Jacinta Price. The government smells blood in the water with Warren Snowden’s factional problems (plus the fact that he’s been around since the Hawke Government). Trumble ‘calculates’ that if he can split the blackfella vote the coalition can pick up an unexpected seat.

  13. Andrew_Earlwood @ #7 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:00 am

    MSM media into KillBill overdrive in the past month, plus several Labor missteps, plus ‘fuzzy thinking’ amongst the remanant ‘Howard Battlers’ over personal tax cuts has seen what can only been seen as a suatained narrowing.

    Come on Brian. Call it! It’s a genius move reminiscent of Austerlitz. They won’t see you coming. Election now!

    KillBill Overdrive as a band name could limp to the next election.

  14. William Miller
    ‏
    @MilWil42
    13m

    80% of #Longman (Caboolture to Bribie) earn less than the basic wage. That’s the Australia that Howard’s LNP has created. #VOTELABOR #auspol

  16. “KillBill Overdrive as a band name could limp to the next election.”

    You can see why the media are desperate. If the election is called and Bill is still leader then the KillBill campaign will likely dissipate, because in an actual campaign Bill becomes the alternative PM, on the same footing as Trumble, and folk start listening to Bill directly, rather than taking their opinions as filtered by the CPG. That’s what the Trumble polishers and urgers fear most – punters in voter land judging Bill and Labor on merit.

  17. “80% of #Longman (Caboolture to Bribie) earn less than the basic wage. That’s the Australia that Howard’s LNP has created. #VOTELABOR #auspol”

    And yet, on any measure, Longman is close. The cognitive dissonance amongst the Howard Battlers is strong.

  19. …and if 80% of people living in electorates like Longman earn less than the basic wage, I’m not sure these areas would have jobs for skilled migrants…

  20. Our great LNP are on the way to victory in Longman Braddon and also Mayo and they only need to get to 50/50 to win the next election by a 1 seat majority

  21. FWIW my opinion is that IPSOS has gone from an over Labor friendly sample last time to an over friendly sample for the coalition this time, this making what is probably a small move to the government look a lot more dramatic than it really is.

    The evidence?

    1. The coalition pv has allegedly surged from 35% last time to 39% now. Not plausible. The other polls are showing it has been at about 39% for some time now.

    2. The Labor pv is 34% at least a couple of percent lower than the average of the other polls.

    3. The Greens pv is 12%, about 2% higher than the average for the other polls, probably accounting for the missing 2% from Labor’s 2pp.

    4. An alleged surge in Turnbull’s approval rating of 5% putting it up to 55% which would be consistent with an over friendly sample, albeit that there has been a sustained upward movement of his netsats in all the polls recently.

    Whichever way you look at it, it is not a good poll for Labor but neither is it as bad as it looks at first glance.

  22. Andrew_Earlwood @ #17 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:37 am

    “80% of #Longman (Caboolture to Bribie) earn less than the basic wage. That’s the Australia that Howard’s LNP has created. #VOTELABOR #auspol”

    And yet, on any measure, Longman is close. The cognitive dissonance amongst the Howard Battlers is strong.

    Several Scary Sudanese in St Kilda are worth Battler’s Bribe Bob’s on Bribie?

  23. ItzaDream @ #2 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 7:48 am

    Chin up, shoulders back, chest out.

    Go like you belong.

    Labor belongs.

    I’m with you, Itza. Head down, bum up, tail wagging, all the way to polling day!

    Ignore the Cassandras, the bellyachers and moaners. Ignore KillBill, which will ramp up to eleventy this week, and just tell our story. It’s the better one of the two.

    Lies from the Liberals and a few cheap-arse cameras to extend the facial recognition program to all points of the land, or positive plans to support the lives of every citizen in the land?

    The choice should be obvious.

  27. The Galaxy poll in Longman was quoted in local Canberra FM radio news as “evidence” that Bill is finished, kaput. Presumably that idea will infest radio and TV Australia wide today. Be prepared.

    Also, what is the real reason for Pauline to apparently abandon campaigning today? Is she unwell or has Ashby told her to go quiet?

    Finally, how low can people like Murdoch, Dutton and Guy go?

    STATE OF DISORDER
    Tears as crime crisis claims teen
    REBECCA URBAN, RICHARD FERGUSON
    A talented young soccer player died when a brawl broke out at a party hosted by a group of African-Australians.

  29. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, July 23, 2018 at 8:35 am
    “KillBill Overdrive as a band name could limp to the next election.”

    You can see why the media are desperate. If the election is called and Bill is still leader then the KillBill campaign will likely dissipate, because in an actual campaign Bill becomes the alternative PM, on the same footing as Trumble, and folk start listening to Bill directly, rather than taking their opinions as filtered by the CPG. That’s what the Trumble polishers and urgers fear most – punters in voter land judging Bill and Labor on merit.

    Right on the money with that Andrew; and has you pointed out a couple of days ago that’s when Labour will bring out its very substantial war chest and its far more appealing policies on a raft of things that will will resonate with a large number of voters. If Labor are on equal terms when the starter’s gun goes off they are a very good chance of hitting the front when it really matters IMO.

  30. Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and will go on to win the next election by a landslide and shorten is toasted

  34. C@tmomma @ #23 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 5:47 am

    ItzaDream @ #2 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 7:48 am

    Chin up, shoulders back, chest out.

    Go like you belong.

    Labor belongs.

    I’m with you, Itza. Head down, bum up, tail wagging, all the way to polling day!

    Ignore the Cassandras, the bellyachers and moaners. Ignore KillBill, which will ramp up to eleventy this week, and just tell our story. It’s the better one of the two.

    Lies from the Liberals and a few cheap-arse cameras to extend the facial recognition program to all points of the land, or positive plans to support the lives of every citizen in the land?

    The choice should be obvious.

    I can understand the others but why would you ignore Cassandras?

  35. ‘I’m with you, Itza. Head down, bum up, tail wagging, all the way to polling day!’

    Yeah, right, the prone position.
    All the better for the tories to….well you know….

  36. booleanbach @ #18 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:39 am

    Sadly, but true, There will be no Palestinian state:
    It’s unlikely, to say the least, that the new “peace deal” that the world awaits from President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will offer Palestinians much more than another bite of that pastrami sandwich.
    https://www.truthdig.com/articles/making-sense-of-u-s-moves-in-the-middle-east/

    Boolenbach

    I am assuming that the REASON for the Apartheid legislation in Israel is that the whole idea of a Palestinian state has been abandoned. Therefore they will be “integrated” into Israel, but as fourth class citizens effectively living in Bantustans. I guess they will be able to work in menial servant jobs.

    Probably a formally gerrymandered vote so there will be no possible chance of any electoral change assuming that the Arabic speakers eventually outnumber Jewish people.

    I am amused that probably there are many on this site who proudly marched against South Africa but are silent on this issue.

    I just cannot understand why. Apartheid is evil whatever way you look at it.

  37. Andrew_Earlwood @ #16 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:35 am

    “KillBill Overdrive as a band name could limp to the next election.”

    You can see why the media are desperate. If the election is called and Bill is still leader then the KillBill campaign will likely dissipate, because in an actual campaign Bill becomes the alternative PM, on the same footing as Trumble, and folk start listening to Bill directly, rather than taking their opinions as filtered by the CPG. That’s what the Trumble polishers and urgers fear most – punters in voter land judging Bill and Labor on merit.

    This.
    Which also explains the broad fallacy behind the PPM polls.

  40. AE

    Trumble’s selfie trip to Tennant Creek was all about CLP candidate Jacinta Price. The government smells blood in the water with Warren Snowden’s factional problems (plus the fact that he’s been around since the Hawke Government). Trumble ‘calculates’ that if he can split the blackfella vote the coalition can pick up an unexpected seat.

    Indeed. He is campaigning for his candidate in the upcoming federal election.

    Welcome to Country’s opinion piece on Jacinta Price:
    https://www.welcometocountry.org/things-need-to-know-jacinta-price/

    Jacinta Price has been all over the headlines. Many non-Indigenous Australians love her, but many Indigenous people can’t stand her.

  42. booleanbach @ #9 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:17 am

    Happy to see Labor still leading – the trend continues.

    Meanwhile dinosaurs do coexist with modern humans:
    Corporate Democrats are extremely worried about the wave of progressive enthusiasm that is sweeping the country in red and blue states alike, and—according to reporting by NBC News on Sunday—they are beginning to organize a “counterrevolution” to beat it back.
    https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/07/22/terrified-progressive-enthusiasm-sweeping-nation-corporate-democrats-have-begun

    I suspect that this is a seriously losing strategy. Trouble is that Democrats are largely run by the educated well payed elites. I read (or maybe it was on the ABC) that while the super rich are solidly Republican (ie top 1%) the top 2-9% are Democrat. This group just have totally different priorities than the rest of the population.

    I suspect that the Democrats AND the Republicans will split before the 2020 elections.

    There will be four parties. Trumpeters, Bushies, Sanderistas and Democrat centrists.

  43. From one who has actually done the financial analysis – as opposed to those who are ideological warriors:

    The British billionaire who rescued the Whyalla steelworks from administration and is spending more than $2bn on clean energy and green steel developments in regional South Australia says most Australians are yet to grasp that solar power is now a cheaper option than new coal-fired electricity.

    Sanjeev Gupta, an industrialist whose family-owned GFG Alliance group of companies has been credited with resurrecting Britain’s steel industry, says he considered investing in coal generation in the state’s Upper Spencer Gulf after buying Arrium’s steel mill last year but found solar backed by “firming” storage technologies made better economic sense.

    “It’s still everybody’s perception that it is cheaper to make power from coal than it is from renewables, and it is no longer the case,” he told Guardian Australia. “It was the case not long ago, but it’s no longer the case, and we will prove it.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/23/sanjeev-gupta-coal-power-is-no-longer-cheaper-and-well-prove-it

  44. https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/labor-is-considering-whether-to-disendorse-embattled-mp?utm_term=.igQ0OY6RN#.fabo01eXO

    Husar has already been preselected as the party’s candidate in the marginal Western Sydney seat, but Labor is now considering its options. Labor holds Lindsay by just 1.1%, and needs to retain it in order to win the next federal election.

    The ALP National Executive met via phone conference on Friday and discussed Husar. Conversations about her future have also been had at NSW Labor headquarters on Sussex Street in Sydney.

    Party bosses are questioning how Husar’s alleged behaviour was allowed to continue unchecked for such a long time, given the turnover of more than 20 staff members in her short two-year tenure.

    It’s not just senior Labor figures who are concerned about the allegations made against the member for Lindsay.

    BuzzFeed News understands Husar has lost the support of local elders and nearly all of the branches within her electorate, over her alleged behaviour

  45. There will be four parties. Trumpeters, Bushies, Sanderistas and Democrat centrists.

    Bookmarked for the lols. Some of the shit you post is just shit.

  47. No point in being concerned either way.

    I do remember that in the last days of the Gillard govt Labor got some good polls which bolstered people, only to find the next time they bounced back to the Libs.

    We can hope that we are seeing this here with ipsos, for instance, those jumps are too large to be real so I am betting they’re outliers.

  48. That link doesn’t work for me GG. Train is circling. It leaves this message
    ‘If you’re not redirected soon, please use this link.’
    So, I’ve got no idea.

  50. zoomster

    I thought this might be of interest to you, and to any others who have expressed concern over the current state of the MDB.

    https://mdbca.com/2016/08/23/professor-john-briscoe-the-water-act-of-2007-was-founded-on-a-political-deception/

    Because constitutional amendments are not simple, and definitely cannot be done over a weekend before an election, the authors of the Water Act 2007 had to find legal cover for usurping state powers. An alert and enterprising environmental lawyer found the fig-leaf, which was the Ramsar Convention, which the Commonwealth Government had signed, committing itself to protecting wetlands which are critical for migratory birds.

    To avoid a constitutional crisis, the Commonwealth had to build the Water Act around this fig leaf. So the Act became an environmental act, which was all it really could be, since it was in the name of the commonwealth’s obligations to an obscure international environmental convention that it was taking powers from the states.

    And so the fundamentals of the Act were born – an environmental act in which Canberra would tell states and communities and farmers what to do.

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