The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.
The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.
See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).
2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”
I remain blissfully unconcerned.
Turnbull is toast.
Toast I tell you!
Chin up, shoulders back, chest out.
Go like you belong.
I’m definitely feeling underdoggish.
I agree Turnbulll still has many problems. A drovers dog wiill win the next election.
I was wondering whether Munro Hanrahan would be one of the first to post on this thread.
MSM media into KillBill overdrive in the past month, plus several Labor missteps, plus ‘fuzzy thinking’ amongst the remanant ‘Howard Battlers’ over personal tax cuts has seen what can only been seen as a suatained narrowing.
Come on Brian. Call it! It’s a genius move reminiscent of Austerlitz. They won’t see you coming. Election now!
Wonder if we will see Albo out and about today, campaigning?
Happy to see Labor still leading – the trend continues.
Meanwhile dinosaurs do coexist with modern humans:
Corporate Democrats are extremely worried about the wave of progressive enthusiasm that is sweeping the country in red and blue states alike, and—according to reporting by NBC News on Sunday—they are beginning to organize a “counterrevolution” to beat it back.
Considering the PB discussions on populations numbers, I think this is worth re-posting. It sets out the options rather well.
Trumble’s selfie trip to Tennant Creek was all about CLP candidate Jacinta Price. The government smells blood in the water with Warren Snowden’s factional problems (plus the fact that he’s been around since the Hawke Government). Trumble ‘calculates’ that if he can split the blackfella vote the coalition can pick up an unexpected seat.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #7 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:00 am
KillBill Overdrive as a band name could limp to the next election.
SkyNews and Phil Coorey in the AFR are cheering Malcolm on.
Such a popular chap.
“KillBill Overdrive as a band name could limp to the next election.”
You can see why the media are desperate. If the election is called and Bill is still leader then the KillBill campaign will likely dissipate, because in an actual campaign Bill becomes the alternative PM, on the same footing as Trumble, and folk start listening to Bill directly, rather than taking their opinions as filtered by the CPG. That’s what the Trumble polishers and urgers fear most – punters in voter land judging Bill and Labor on merit.
“80% of #Longman (Caboolture to Bribie) earn less than the basic wage. That’s the Australia that Howard’s LNP has created. #VOTELABOR #auspol”
And yet, on any measure, Longman is close. The cognitive dissonance amongst the Howard Battlers is strong.
Sadly, but true, There will be no Palestinian state:
It’s unlikely, to say the least, that the new “peace deal” that the world awaits from President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner will offer Palestinians much more than another bite of that pastrami sandwich.
…and if 80% of people living in electorates like Longman earn less than the basic wage, I’m not sure these areas would have jobs for skilled migrants…
Our great LNP are on the way to victory in Longman Braddon and also Mayo and they only need to get to 50/50 to win the next election by a 1 seat majority
FWIW my opinion is that IPSOS has gone from an over Labor friendly sample last time to an over friendly sample for the coalition this time, this making what is probably a small move to the government look a lot more dramatic than it really is.
1. The coalition pv has allegedly surged from 35% last time to 39% now. Not plausible. The other polls are showing it has been at about 39% for some time now.
2. The Labor pv is 34% at least a couple of percent lower than the average of the other polls.
3. The Greens pv is 12%, about 2% higher than the average for the other polls, probably accounting for the missing 2% from Labor’s 2pp.
4. An alleged surge in Turnbull’s approval rating of 5% putting it up to 55% which would be consistent with an over friendly sample, albeit that there has been a sustained upward movement of his netsats in all the polls recently.
Whichever way you look at it, it is not a good poll for Labor but neither is it as bad as it looks at first glance.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #17 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:37 am
Several Scary Sudanese in St Kilda are worth Battler’s Bribe Bob’s on Bribie?
ItzaDream @ #2 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 7:48 am
I’m with you, Itza. Head down, bum up, tail wagging, all the way to polling day!
Ignore the Cassandras, the bellyachers and moaners. Ignore KillBill, which will ramp up to eleventy this week, and just tell our story. It’s the better one of the two.
Lies from the Liberals and a few cheap-arse cameras to extend the facial recognition program to all points of the land, or positive plans to support the lives of every citizen in the land?
The choice should be obvious.
Wayne @ #20 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:40 am
Ooooh! A backdown!
Oh, and ignore Waynker. He’s just another version of KillBill.
rhwombat @ #13 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:28 am
The Galaxy poll in Longman was quoted in local Canberra FM radio news as “evidence” that Bill is finished, kaput. Presumably that idea will infest radio and TV Australia wide today. Be prepared.
Also, what is the real reason for Pauline to apparently abandon campaigning today? Is she unwell or has Ashby told her to go quiet?
Finally, how low can people like Murdoch, Dutton and Guy go?
Well at least Abbott is relatively quiet:)
Right on the money with that Andrew; and has you pointed out a couple of days ago that’s when Labour will bring out its very substantial war chest and its far more appealing policies on a raft of things that will will resonate with a large number of voters. If Labor are on equal terms when the starter’s gun goes off they are a very good chance of hitting the front when it really matters IMO.
Our great LNP will win the seats of Longman Braddon mayo and will go on to win the next election by a landslide and shorten is toasted
Someone must have put the dummy back in.
Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred (respondent-allocated preferences): L/NP 50 (+4) ALP 50 (-4)
Have to be a really big dummy
C@tmomma @ #23 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 5:47 am
I can understand the others but why would you ignore Cassandras?
‘I’m with you, Itza. Head down, bum up, tail wagging, all the way to polling day!’
Yeah, right, the prone position.
All the better for the tories to….well you know….
booleanbach @ #18 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:39 am
I am assuming that the REASON for the Apartheid legislation in Israel is that the whole idea of a Palestinian state has been abandoned. Therefore they will be “integrated” into Israel, but as fourth class citizens effectively living in Bantustans. I guess they will be able to work in menial servant jobs.
Probably a formally gerrymandered vote so there will be no possible chance of any electoral change assuming that the Arabic speakers eventually outnumber Jewish people.
I am amused that probably there are many on this site who proudly marched against South Africa but are silent on this issue.
I just cannot understand why. Apartheid is evil whatever way you look at it.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #16 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:35 am
Which also explains the broad fallacy behind the PPM polls.
The Germans probably have a word for the expression Malky will be wearing come Sunday…
mundo! what a surprise to see you here. How’s your Mum and your dog?
Indeed. He is campaigning for his candidate in the upcoming federal election.
Welcome to Country’s opinion piece on Jacinta Price:
Trump diehards: “FAKE NEWS!”
AWU/SDA diehards: “KILL BILL!”
booleanbach @ #9 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 8:17 am
I suspect that this is a seriously losing strategy. Trouble is that Democrats are largely run by the educated well payed elites. I read (or maybe it was on the ABC) that while the super rich are solidly Republican (ie top 1%) the top 2-9% are Democrat. This group just have totally different priorities than the rest of the population.
I suspect that the Democrats AND the Republicans will split before the 2020 elections.
There will be four parties. Trumpeters, Bushies, Sanderistas and Democrat centrists.
From one who has actually done the financial analysis – as opposed to those who are ideological warriors:
Bookmarked for the lols. Some of the shit you post is just shit.
Here’s a metaphor for the political interest of voters.
Voters are on the platform of life while the train passes by. But, which way is the train going?
No point in being concerned either way.
I do remember that in the last days of the Gillard govt Labor got some good polls which bolstered people, only to find the next time they bounced back to the Libs.
We can hope that we are seeing this here with ipsos, for instance, those jumps are too large to be real so I am betting they’re outliers.
That link doesn’t work for me GG. Train is circling. It leaves this message
‘If you’re not redirected soon, please use this link.’
So, I’ve got no idea.
boomy1 @ #40 Monday, July 23rd, 2018 – 9:42 am
I just clicked on my post and the link works fine.
I thought this might be of interest to you, and to any others who have expressed concern over the current state of the MDB.