Developments, and further reading:
• Matthew Denholm of The Australian reports a Liberal tracking poll sample of 500 voters has Brett Whiteley edging to a 51-49 lead over Labor’s Justine Keay in Braddon. Party sources credit this to their targeting of independent Craig Garland, who is said to be down from 9% last week to 5% this week. Garland is a crusty local fisherman who polled 3.1% at the state election on a campaign against fish farming, but Michael Koziol of Fairfax reports he is “building a brand beyond that niche, connecting with disaffected working class voters and even some Liberals”. With Garland directing preferences to Labor, the Liberals fear a repeat of the 2016 election, when the Recreational Fishers Party polled 5.7% in Braddon and 4.9% in Bass, respectively producing preference flows of 63.1% and 67.0% to Labor. The Liberals have been duly keen to portray Garland as an “extreme green”, and to exploit an assault conviction recorded against him in 1993 over an altercation involving a group of his friends and two off-duty police officers. This extended to the Prime Minister telling reporters that “violence against women, violence against police, can never be accepted, must always be condemned”.
• Pauline Hanson has taken an oddly timed break from politics to go on a cruise off Ireland and Scotland, citing exhaustion. Meanwhile, the party’s candidate in Longman, Matthew Stephen, has faced a series of claims of unpaid debts and wages from subcontactors and workers for his tiling business. However, Renee Viellaris of the Courier-Mail reports One Nation’s campaign has been more professional than recent form: its how-to-vote cards, thought previously to have been “too wordy and hard to understand”, have been made visually punchier and clearer in their recommended preference order (in this putting the LNP ahead of Labor), and the party promises an organised polling booth presence and tighter scrutineering.
• Acres of psephological goodness on offer in Kevin Bonham’s review of the Longman by-election.
What has been Bill Shorten’s main message over the last 6-12 months? Surely it’s his opposition to the government’s tax cuts, which will redistribute income to the wealthy and big business. Then he’ll take the money saved and spend it instead on useful public services.
Both Braddon and Longman would appear to be tailor made for this message… Caboolture and Burnie are battler central. Not all marginal seats will be such favourable territory.
The ALP is (rightly) given credit for superior on the ground campaigning. They have had two months to focus door knocking and phone banking on just these two seats. Two months to get Shorten’s message to every voter. This is a luxury they wont have in the general election when their resources will be much more thinly spread.
I would have thought the Liberals shot themselves in the foot by waiting so long to hold the elections, giving the ALP time to saturate these areas with their message.
In these circumstances, if the ALP cannot hold these seats, and hold them well, what hope will they have in the general? A loss or close finish, means there is something seriously wrong, either with the messenger, the message, or both.
Peterjk23
The only things seriously wrong are your facts , rationale and conclusion.
A government selectively subjecting some politicians to the High Court for a decision is wrong.
Assuming all voters in this Saturdays by-elections will vote because of tbe governments tax policy is a hugh leap.
Labor has been ahead in the polls since the last election.
There is not much wrong with the messenger, nor the message as none of the polling suggests the results this Saturday will much different from what was achieved at the last election.
The purpose of your drivel is what?
Things have gone very quiet in Mayo now. I think the Libs have given up. Staffing of booths on Saturday will be interetsing.
The Braddon opinion poll
https://www.theadvocate.com.au/story/5545391/brett-whiteley-grabs-narrow-braddon-byelection-lead-leaked-polling/
Hanson said she will never visit/stay/live in England.
Isn’t Ireland and Scotland considered British?
@ Golly: “There is not much wrong with the messenger, nor the message as none of the polling suggests the results this Saturday will much different from what was achieved at the last election.”
If the results at the next election are no different from what was achieved at the last election, then the ALP will lose once again and stay in opposition.
Governments (and specially unpopular governments) normally get a swing against them at by-elections.
So, the ALP should be doing much better than last time at these by-elections & not just doing the same as, or doing worse than it did at the last election.
I was interested in the earlier comments relating to the ALP leadership selection processes.
Is it really true that any change of leader – even when the current leader resigns or is incapacitated – would then be necessary for a vote of all party members to be held? A vote which, presumably, would take several weeks.
If so, isn’t it this a ludicrously fatal flaw in the new system? When Labor is in opposition, it gives the opportunity for a Government to call an election when Labor has no leader. Yes, there could be an interim leader, but the Libs could claim that he/she is only a stooge and that some less appealing figure from the machine is waiting in the wings ready to take over so “if you vote Labor, you are guaranteed not to get the Prime Minister you voted for.” It’s messy and potentially embarrassing.
Like most of what Rudd did to the ALP, I think this system of electing the leader sucks. It’s caused lots of problems in British Labour and it won’t work any better here in the long run. The elected MPs should elect the leader IMO. Look at the example of Annastacia Palaszczuk: I rather doubt she would have been chosen to be leader of the Queensland ALP by the membership, but she’s turned out to be a star.
No – you have an interim leader until the ballot is concluded, the only way to avoid it (I think) is an uncontested ballot.
MB
That’s how it works in the Greens Party atm, a process I am happy with.
However, some Laborites always bring up the ALP’s selection process for leader to demonstrate just how democratic their party is compared to the Greens, even though each vote cast by the grassroots ALP members does not have equal value with each member of its caucus.
There will be very little difference in the numbers of votes received by both Labor and the LNP in both Braddon and Longman regardless. Much will be written about the final result.
The fact is Turnbull is desperate for a win and he and his supporters will construe any glimmer of advantage.
As to the final result effecting Shorten’s position as leader, nothing. The pro LNP media will attempt to portray the results from this coming weekend as a win for Turnbull whatever the outcome.
Shorten will still be leader on Monday morning and at the next election. Albanese will not undo a very successful political career by making a foolish gambit to attain the position as the next PM but fail.
Shorten has had the kitchen sink thrown at him and nothing.
Shorten will be the next PM after the next Federal election because he has not panicked, held his party together and has clearly stated his desire to re-establish some balance into the decision making at a Federal level.
Tightrope Turnbull has been in a precarious political position since becoming a politician and nothing has changed.
Turnbull gambled by joining thd Liberals, gambled to become opposition leader, gambled at the last election and now this.
Turnbull will do a tendon before long and will disappear from the political scene just as quickly as he appeared. Remember the Republican Turnbull anyone?
A grade mental gymnastics there, Pegasus.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/25/theyre-going-to-get-a-hell-of-a-shock-the-anti-politician-shaking-up-braddons-byelection
Garland as kingmaker? Haha! But the voters who vote for him and make up their own minds about preferences will all have a share in the kingship.
Craig Garland won 3.1% of the vote in Braddon at the recent state election and he only spent $800 on his campaign. The state Liberals are obviously concerned about him preforming well enough in the by-election.
‘Tightrope Turnbull has been in a precarious political position since becoming a politician and nothing has changed….’
Well yes,…but what changed is he became the Prime minister.
Despite a pissweak term as opposition leader
Despite the blunder of Grechgate
Despite running a million miles away from previously held positions
Despite a litany of stuff ups
Despite having virtually nothing in common with anyone except Lucy
There he is.
I’m not sure I get your point.
Golly
It was Shorten who started referring politicians to the Courts, he did it with Barnaby. He then gave rolled-gold promises on the ALP candidate. Even though Susan Lamb never even went through the process of renouncing her citizenship (because it was too hard without her dad).
Turnbull even offered him a deal where no one would be referred to the Courts, which Shorten declined. the only person to blame for the Saturday election is BS Bill
Dovif
Your facts are wrong.
Mundo
Try harder!
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/liberal-democrats-nudging-out-greens-in-fremantle-polling-reveals-20180726-p4ztpb.html
Liberal Democrats nudging out Greens in Fremantle, polling reveals
By Nathan Hondros
26 July 2018 — 11:30am
A ReachTEL poll of voters heading into WA’s “Super Saturday” byelections shows comfortable wins for Labor, but has the Liberal Democrats out-polling the Greens in the seat of Fremantle.
The research, commissioned by Legalise Vaping Australia, put Liberal Democrat candidate John Gray on 17.4 per cent of the Fremantle primary vote, ahead of the Greens’ Dorinda Cox on 16 per cent.
Labor candidate Josh Wilson was ahead in the race, with the poll showing he could secure 49.3 per cent of the primary vote and 69 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
In Perth, the poll showed Labor’s Patrick Gorman leading the race with 44.9 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of the Greens on 17 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 13.4 per cent.
Mr Gorman would win 68 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, according to the poll.
https://twitter.com/nathanhondros/status/1022329945593245696
The above link has the full ReachTEL tables
Dovif
You are wRONg
The first ones to resign were the greens, the dual citizenship of Ludlam was brought to light by a barrister with no political connections who was pissed off at barristers having to obey the law whilst pollies seemingly didn’t.
Barnaby referred himself following questions from Fairfax.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/deputy-prime-minister-barnaby-joyce-refers-himself-to-high-court-over-potential-dual-citizenship-20170814-gxvhs2.html
Liberal Democrats nudging out Greens in Fremantle, polling reveals
Hangover from Troy and Adele?
But RDN really should go, poor effort, a government on the nose in a number of areas and concern and support re climate change and the greens are going backwards.
The Liberals have been duly keen to portray Garland as an “extreme green”, and to exploit an assault conviction recorded against him in 1993 over an altercation involving a group of his friends and two off-duty police officers. This extended to the Prime Minister telling reporters that “violence against women, violence against police, can never be accepted, must always be condemned”.
Yet Turnbull has stayed silent on the One Nation rape conviction, the alleged debts owed by another One Nation member and yet very happy to take their preferences, and there is the previous electoral fraud of the liberal candidate.
Standard you walk past or stay silent on.
“Like most of what Rudd did to the ALP, I think this system of electing the leader sucks. It’s caused lots of problems in British Labour and it won’t work any better here in the long run. The elected MPs should elect the leader IMO. Look at the example of Annastacia Palaszczuk: I rather doubt she would have been chosen to be leader of the Queensland ALP by the membership, but she’s turned out to be a star.”
What Rudd did to the ALP? More like the number crunchers and back room men did to the ALP. You are re-writing history if you think the Gillard Challenge was not disconnected from the rank file and also the public.
The leadership challenge was a heaven’s delight to back room dealers and number crunchers. Don Farrall, Mark Arbib, and yes the hopeless David Feeney were up to their neck in it and frankly the party then said if the power can’t be used wisely then we will have to take the power away from you.
The other thing you conveniently ignore is since 2001 the Labor party has not had the same leader contest back to back to elections. The rules in place stop the poll obsessed number crunchers who are happy to change leaders like they change underpants and view the leadership as their own play thing.
Your example of Palaszczuk is lame she took over when there was only seven MP’s and she was the only MP with ministerial experience and she never had a challenger. Seriously, is that the best evidence you can come up with that the previous system was better?
I am not convinced that Mayo is “done and dusted” for Rebekha Sharkie just yet.
The seat may be centered on the Adelaide Hills, but it includes the Fleurieu peninsular and KI.
Very different electoral profiles in the same constituency.
Hopfully she gets up, but….
Look at the Mawson vote last sa election
Friend on pre poll at Longman reckons it feels like tight battle.
PHON support seems to have fallen over the two weeks particularly since Pauline went on her cruise. All the publicity has been negative, definitely not helping.
The LNP very outspoken against Shorten (many poll workers probably supporters from Duttons seat of Dickson which borders Longman). Vote for her, you get him.
Labor workers hoping Susan Lamb did enough while in Canberra to get back in. Very quiet.
Greens hoping their voters number every square.
A big field, expect high informals.
Lot of young people don’t need ‘how to vote’ material, have the phone so can’t be sure which way they will vote.
Hmm…
I don’t see Labor pulling out a Bignell style win in Mayo as it does include the Adelaide Hills, but Mawson certainly didn’t do much for SA-Best in the recent SA election (only 18.7% primary).
Mind you Leon Bignell does specialise in top hats and white rabbits, so where those votes came from no-one really knows. Also, where will they go on Saturday??
When I worked on a polling booth, it had seemed to me that most Labor voters were not too partisan. They will usually pick up all HTV cards, not say much and move on. Whereas you could tell Liberal voters much easily as they will more likely sternly reject ALP cards or ask specifically for LNP HTV.
I was a bit unsure about how things are going as I couldn’t read the mood until I stayed for the count and it was nearly 80-20 to ALP in my booth 🙂
This is in the western suburbs of Melbourne, ALP heartland. So while it is interesting to listen to anecdotes they are just that, anecdotes.
@ Political Nightwatchman: “The leadership challenge was a heaven’s delight to back room dealers and number crunchers. Don Farrall, Mark Arbib, and yes the hopeless David Feeney were up to their neck in it ….”
There was also another person who was very prominently involved in the scheme to oust Rudd. A certain Bill Shorten.
Agree that the ALP leadership election rules are a consequence of the toxic backroom culture that (rightly or wrongly) had started to hurt perceptions of the party (minus the “Rudd was an innocent victim of the meanie powerbrokers” – he lived by that sword and died by it. No revisionism is going to change that.) And I think, looking at perception outside of the commentator bubble, reversing that decision because it’s inconvenient to party powerbrokers is not a very smart idea.
@Rational Leftist
My head would agree with you and the Labor Party doing such a thing is a bad idea. However my gut feeling if the Labor Party replaced Bill Shorten as leader before the election. I don’t believe would have significant negative electoral consequences. I would argue this for the two following reasons.
Firstly; few people mourned the overthrow of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party and Tony Abbott had the lead the Coalition to a landslide win just two years earlier. Of course the Coalition supporter base was outraged by this and still are to an extent by this. However the voters were not.
Secondly; Kevin Rudd was a quite popular Prime Minister in the electorate and I can understand why some people were outraged by his deposing as Prime Minister.
Right now I am inclined on voters not caring very much about Bill Shorten being deposed as Labor leader and another person replacing him as Labor leader. The Coalition strategists I believe are inclined on believing the voters being outraged if Bill Shorten was replaced as Labor leader. However very likely this is a miscalculation, I just don’t see that happening if that were to happen.
So called Liberal Democrats appear to be benfitting only from the gutless no-show by the other so-called Librals in WA.
The political spin and BS runs so deep in commentary from many on here.
Too pathetic, ignorant and thoughtless to talk policy or reality, spite and ignorance dressed up as character analysis rules so much of so-called political discussion in Australia. Even more so on here regularly.
@Quoll
Agreed, I believe a lot of people in the general public don’t know what the Liberal Democratic Party are. Since they are a Libertarian political party and Libertarianism has very limited in appeal among Australia voters. The same goes for “Christian Right” politics, although both have some appeal in the United States and a lesser extent the Western Provinces (in particular Alberta) of Canada.
@Tristo
Yeah, Nah.
You may think replacing Bill Shorten won’t have negative consequences but the majority Labor Mp’s certainly think they will. Many that have endured the previous leadership disharmony are dead set against repeating the same mistake this time. Even Dennis Atkins admits in the QLD right wing rag the Courier Mail Shorten being rolled as leader is not a realty.
“The other question from this by-election is whether it will have any impact on the Labor leadership.
The answer is it will cause an increase in chatter but Shorten is likely to remain an immovable object.
He is not going anywhere which means a challenge – if it were to emerge – would be bloody and drawn out, carrying a cost that would mean Labor would certainly lose the next election, and lose it badly.
Also, there’s the simple arithmetic fact that a majority of Labor MPs are firmly against a return to a killing fields of leadership change.
This is especially the case for those who came into Parliament in 2010 and 2013 – watching the worst of the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd years and never wanting to return to them.
The small number of Labor MPs agitating for change are holding a losing hand.”
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/longman-byelection-long-shot-that-susan-lamb-and-labor-will-win/news-story/3a972c673b44ea5a52147073c0e959c8