Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor

The Coalition narrows what was previously an unusually strong Labor lead from Ipsos, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to surge.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is a much better result for the Coalition than the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor’s lead narrowing from 53-47 to 51-49. This is presumably the result from 2016 election preferences: Ipsos also produces a respondent-allocated result, but it usually takes a bit of digging to get hold of it.

The Coalition is up four on the primary vote to 39%, Labor is down one to 34% and the Greens are steady on 12%. Malcolm Turnbull also records strong improvement in his personal ratings, with approval up five to 55% and disapproval down six to 38%, while Bill Shorten is down two to 38% and up one to 54%. Turnbull’s lead as prime minister is out to 57-30, compared with 51-33 last month. Also featured are questions on best party to handle various issue areas, which have the Coalition leading 60-33 on the economy, 56-33 on interest rates and 45-41 on asylum seekers, while Labor leads 48-41 on health, 49-42 on education and 49-35 on the environment.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

See also the post below this one on Super Saturday by-election polling. You may also care to observe the post-redistribution electoral pendulum I posted over the weekend (and perhaps even to give the tip jar at the top of the page a workout, redistribution calculation being rather laborious exercise).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,742 comments on “Ipsos: 51-49 to Labor”

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  4. Davidwh says:
    Friday, July 27, 2018 at 7:38 pm

    Frednk I’m a Lib. We are always right

    Davidwh

    I was brought up a Lib, was a member of young Libs (in my view the Liberal party had the prettier girls in my day, and we where not a bunch of self centered assholes), but I asked the question; which party actually does something when it needs to be done? The answer I concluded, was not the Liberal party.

    You have to look at what they do, not what they say. You need to get over the union thing.

    It is getting worse, Fraser knocked off the the rough edges; this bunch have taken us back 10 years by destroying the things that were done that needed to be done.

    Needless to say politics is not a topic for a family reunion.

  5. My predictions for tomorrow and beyond.

    Two seats will change hands.
    Both current leaders will hold their jobs until the next election.
    The election will be held around full term.

  7. As we are into predictions.
    Longman will fall to the Liberals.
    There will be no leader change.
    Get Bill will continue.

  8. …’was a member of young Libs..’
    Oh the horror…..On behalf of all of us here I say sorry. On behalf of thinking people everywhere, I say sorry. On behalf of everyone with a medicare card, who has a degree, superanuation, wasn’t conscripted, lives in western Sydney and has sewage, has paid maternity leave, recieves the pension, went to pre-school………………….etc I say sorry…..

  10. I don’t know how much truth there is to this:

    Rowan
    ‏@FightingTories
    9h9 hours ago

    Reliable source tells me if Turnbull doesn’t pick up a Longman or Braddon he’s finished and when the election is called instead of rolling Turnbull he will retire and Dutton will campaign as liberal leader
    That’s why Turnbull’s going all out unhinged with lies and smear

  11. mundo.

    I know.

    My marble didn’t go into the barrel because Whitlam got in.

    What I don’t understand, our generation is well educated we enjoy the resultant prosperity because Whitlam introduced free education yet we accept it being taken from our children.

    I have accepted my stupidity, but there still seems to be a lot around.

  12. The brutal weather has been supercharged by human-induced climate change, scientists say. Climate models for three decades have predicted exactly what the world is seeing this summer.

    And they predict that it will get hotter — and that what is a record today could someday be the norm.

    “The old records belong to a world that no longer exists,” said Martin Hoerling, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    It’s not just heat. A warming world is prone to multiple types of extreme weather — heavier downpours, stronger hurricanes, longer droughts.

    “You see roads melting, airplanes not being able to take off, there’s not enough water,” said Katharine Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. “Climate change hits us at our Achilles’ heel. In the Southwest, it’s water availability. On the Gulf Coast, it’s hurricanes. In the East, it’s flooding. It’s exacerbating the risks we already face today.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/climate-change-is-supercharging-a-hot-and-dangerous-summer/2018/07/26/cf960ba8-905c-11e8-bcd5-9d911c784c38_story.html?utm_term=.271689916aee

    I remember reading an article 10 or 15 years ago predicting that ‘water wars’ between nations will become a thing. I scoffed at the time, but having watched what has happened the last year or so in places like Sth Africa and even here in WA, I can believe it.

  13. C@t:

    As a general rule I pretty much ignore tweets from those who do not have the blue verification tick against their name. They are mostly either just normal folk like the vast majority of PBers with no meaningful insight into anything, or the Oz equivalent of Russian troll farm bots.

  14. I would never vote for a party that would have someone like Peter Dutton as a member, let alone as a serious leadership contender.

  18. I would love to see the lunar eclipse tonight but with a forecast minus 2 and clouds building, my not so young body might not be too enthusiastic.

    Fortunately the wonders of technology will record the spectacle for all to see.

  19. It would be nice if someone adorned the 50 Pauline cardboard cut outs with sailors’ hats.

    On second thoughts, these might be more appropriate:

  21. Confessions @ #2461 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 8:05 pm

    I remember reading an article 10 or 15 years ago predicting that ‘water wars’ between nations will become a thing. I scoffed at the time, but having watched what has happened the last year or so in places like Sth Africa and even here in WA, I can believe it.

    Believe it 🙁

  24. C@t
    It could be a faction thing but these people are staffers who chose to work for her. It seems highly unlikely it’s an organised campaign.
    If the “independent” investigation clears her, won’t there be cries of “whitewash”?
    Put it this way, if it was some Lib backbencher and the Libs organised an investigation which cleared him:her would we believe it?

  26. [It could be a faction thing but these people are staffers who chose to work for her. It seems highly unlikely it’s an organised campaign.
    If the “independent” investigation clears her, won’t there be cries of “whitewash”?
    Put it this way, if it was some Lib backbencher and the Libs organised an all nvedtigation which cleared him:her would we believe it?]

    No.

  27. @C@tmomma

    Interesting thought Emma Husar not being a great pick of candidate for the federal seat of Lindsay. Since the swing to Labor in Lindsay in 2016 was four percent, which was somewhat below what neighboring seats were recording. Macquarie next door to Lindsay recorded a swing to Labor of 6.67% for example.

  29. Hypothetically if the findings against Husar (or any MP) are very bad, say bad enough for anyone to be sacked from their job, can she actually be sacked? Or just expelled from the party and disendorsed?

  30. My prediction is the sun will come up on Sunday and there’ll be a lot of “Lest we regret” from the MSM.

  31. Diog

    Just expelled from the party and disendorsed – unless she is convicted of an offence carrying a certain jail term. The party itself certainly can’t do more than expel and disendorse her.

  32. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and LNP Longman candidate Trevor “Big Trev” Ruthenberg have felt the heat while campaigning in the Queensland seat of Longman after being confronted by voters at a hotel at Sandstone Point.

    The voters fired up at the Prime Minister over penalty rate cuts and the ABC, a day before residents head to the polls for the Super Saturday by-elections.

    One woman then turned on Mr Ruthenberg for wrongly claiming he earned a prestigious defence service medal.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-27/malcolm-turnbull-berated-by-voters-in-byelection-visit/10044354

  33. If she was in a real job she would be sacked, and a note placed on her record to not ever employ.
    Assuming this is all true. Which I’m not 100% sure of yet. Things that are true can be proved. Hasn’t happened just yet. But I reckon she’s gone for all money.

  35. Shellbell,
    “A sweep on when the Swans will get their first free kick”

    Nah. I reckon they’ll wait until a pre-season match in 2019 to give the Swans a free. That’ll be the Swans allocation for the year.
    The umpires are almost as unbearable as the Channel 7 commentators.

  36. Z
    Can’t parliament censure an MP or is that in the US? I’m not thinking about Husar in specific but there would be a very bad look for parliament if a serious bully could sit as an MP with impunity. It doesn’t send a good signal to the public.

  37. Diogenes @ #2473 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 8:37 pm

    C@t
    It could be a faction thing but these people are staffers who chose to work for her. It seems highly unlikely it’s an organised campaign.
    If the “independent” investigation clears her, won’t there be cries of “whitewash”?
    Put it this way, if it was some Lib backbencher and the Libs organised an all nvedtigation which cleared him:her would we believe it?

    I’m just waiting for the results of the investigation, and I can tell you, there will be no whitewash, it’s not how Kaila Murnain runs NSW Labor. It will be detailed and forensic, that I can guarantee. The findings will be justifiable, whichever way they go.

  39. Tristo @ #2476 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    @C@tmomma

    Interesting thought Emma Husar not being a great pick of candidate for the federal seat of Lindsay. Since the swing to Labor in Lindsay in 2016 was four percent, which was somewhat below what neighboring seats were recording. Macquarie next door to Lindsay recorded a swing to Labor of 6.67% for example.

    Susan Templeman had run against Louise Markus before and run her very close previously, so I’m not surprised she got a bigger swing.

  40. Dio,
    MP found guilty of impropriety by a party investigation would be disendorsed. It’s the same as the sack.

  41. The Pub Test, literally, wrt Emma Husar, by Paddy Manning:

    It’s another non-story at the Australian Arms, two doors down from the Western Sydney electorate office of Emma Husar, the embattled member for Lindsay. They’ve all heard of her, of course, especially in a week when she’s all over the papers, as the ALP investigates allegations of workplace bullying against her. Until the investigation is finished, however, it seems the fuss is not going to change a lot of votes. As one woman quips: “She gets someone to pick up her dog poo – big deal! – while Barnaby gets to f–k his staff?”

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/today/paddy-manning/2018/27/2018/1532669029/pub-test-emma-husar?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The%20Monthly%20Today%20-%20Friday%2027%20July%202018&utm_content=The%20Monthly%20Today%20-%20Friday%2027%20July%202018+CID_017bf8bfea0659995d151d806dbc0c7d&utm_source=EDM&utm_term=READ%20ON

  43. “I can tell you, there will be no whitewash, it’s not how Kaila Murnain runs NSW Labor.”

    Contradicted by:

    “But in a stunning development, Mr Gray said he had not been asked to give evidence to the inquiry, despite last year writing to NSW Labor secretary Kaila Murnain about his experience.

    “I haven’t been contacted at all,” he said. “I don’t understand how they haven’t contacted me. People knew this was happening three years ago.””

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/volunteer-who-ran-emma-husar-s-campaign-spent-weeks-in-psychiatric-hospital-20180727-p4zu21.html

  44. Pegasus @ #2492 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 7:01 pm

    “I can tell you, there will be no whitewash, it’s not how Kaila Murnain runs NSW Labor.”

    Contradicted by:

    “But in a stunning development, Mr Gray said he had not been asked to give evidence to the inquiry, despite last year writing to NSW Labor secretary Kaila Murnain about his experience.

    “I haven’t been contacted at all,” he said. “I don’t understand how they haven’t contacted me. People knew this was happening three years ago.””

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/volunteer-who-ran-emma-husar-s-campaign-spent-weeks-in-psychiatric-hospital-20180727-p4zu21.html

    How does it contradict it?

    The letter has been given to the investigator and the investigation is ongoing, i.e. not complete.

  45. Pegasus @ #2492 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 10:01 pm

    “I can tell you, there will be no whitewash, it’s not how Kaila Murnain runs NSW Labor.”

    Contradicted by:

    “But in a stunning development, Mr Gray said he had not been asked to give evidence to the inquiry, despite last year writing to NSW Labor secretary Kaila Murnain about his experience.

    “I haven’t been contacted at all,” he said. “I don’t understand how they haven’t contacted me. People knew this was happening three years ago.””

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/volunteer-who-ran-emma-husar-s-campaign-spent-weeks-in-psychiatric-hospital-20180727-p4zu21.html

    Hmm, maybe he hasn’t been contacted because it’s an investigation into Emma Husar’s time as a federal MP?

    But you keep dripping out the anti-Labor venom, Pegasus, there’s a good little Green troll. 🙂

  46. Barney in Go Dau @ #2493 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 10:11 pm

    Pegasus @ #2492 Friday, July 27th, 2018 – 7:01 pm

    “I can tell you, there will be no whitewash, it’s not how Kaila Murnain runs NSW Labor.”

    Contradicted by:

    “But in a stunning development, Mr Gray said he had not been asked to give evidence to the inquiry, despite last year writing to NSW Labor secretary Kaila Murnain about his experience.

    “I haven’t been contacted at all,” he said. “I don’t understand how they haven’t contacted me. People knew this was happening three years ago.””

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/volunteer-who-ran-emma-husar-s-campaign-spent-weeks-in-psychiatric-hospital-20180727-p4zu21.html

    How does it contradict it?

    The letter has been given to the investigator and the investigation is ongoing, i.e. not complete.

    Yes, it’s an example of Green determinism. If The Greens say it, that’s it. End of. No logic will be entered into!

  47. What is also interesting to note is that it’s the supposed cousins of Labor on the Left, The Greens, that are pushing the hardest against, and this is the tawdry part on their behalf, a Single Mother of 3, one of whose children is Autistic and who has suffered badly from Domestic Violence! I thought they were all causes that The Greens championed? Only in a theoretical sense, and as they trawl for votes, I guess.

  50. Come Sunday our great LNP would have increased its majority 3 and will call an election some time in September and go on to win that election…….

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