The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.
The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).
All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.
Nicko @ #198 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 12:17 pm
Cambodia is going through the same experience at the moment. 🙁
Nicko says: Monday, July 9, 2018 at 3:17 pm
Russians election under Putin are kinda like having one contestant in the competition, you already know the result, but you go through the motions anyway, just so you can make it feel like you earned it.
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The old Stalin classic – “It’s not the people who vote that count, it’s the people who count the votes.”
Cameron
What is particularly shocking about your long cut and paste is that it is so biased and WRONG.
Yes the President pulled out of a deal to shift towards the EU.
He had less that 1 year to a free and fair election.
If you believe in Democracy how can you support a takeover of the kind that happened in the Ukraine. If the election had been delayed or was years away you might have had justification but when the scheduled election was 12 months way and could have been brought forward you simply confirm my opinion that you are fundamentally anti Democratic or have no idea what it means.
If you think a street protest should overthrow and elected government i give you a little bit of info
THAT AIN’T DEMOCRACY.
It is particularly bad given the KNOWN involvement of Fascists in the overthow – yes the GENUINE thing swastikas and all. it is so good to know you are allied to the Ukranian NAZIs
Good work.
Come on Freddy and Cat. Join your NAZI allies. You know you want to.
Cameron @ #196 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 12:16 pm
Surely this isn’t your first instance of confusion? 🙂
daretotread. @ #202 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 3:20 pm
You mean, when Russia invaded it?
Yeah, I agree, that wasn’t very democratic of them at all. Nobody should support that. 😛
Nicko @ #186 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 3:17 pm
Nicko
Your point is sort of valid but that is why Putin worked hard to get over the 70% line.
Honestly kiddies it does you no credit to deny reality. Sometimes people even autocrats are popular. You may not like them but other people do. In any country that has gone through trauma you will get autocrats elected, especially after a period of chaos. It could even happen here and I be most of you will be members of the cheer squad.
I do not notice you calling out the military junta in Egypt or Thailand or the oppressive autocracy of Saudi Arabia.
Egypt, Thailand and Saudi Arabia can be added to the same list as Russia.
Yes Putin worked hard to eliminate any real opposition to him, and is reaping the rewards with sham elections.
a r @ #192 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 3:25 pm
AR
Grow up
1. I am talking of the overthrow of the ELECTED government.
2. Crimea was obviously an annexation but the ONLY people who have a right to decide are the Crimeans. I suggest you ask them. If they want to go back to Ukraine then I would of course support them, but I think it unlikely. I supported independence for Ireland too and the right of Scotland to secede if it chooses by DEMOCRATIC vote.
3. Russia has been very careful NOT to invade the Donbass and has copped much critcism. They have supplied arms etc and mayb eadvisors but not actual troop. In other words they have done EXACTLY like the US have done in Syria.
But hey hypocrisy thy name is CIA troll.
Boerwar,
And wouldn’t Turnbull just love to jail Shorten and bar him from running in the next election? Just think about how very popular Turnbull would be with no opponents at all!
And if the Coalition win the next election and Dutton bumps off Turnbull…
a r @ #179 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 3:25 pm
That has to take the cake for Russian apologists and appeasers! dtt is obviously referring, negatively (!) to this:
Is Hanson trying to gain voters or lose them by employing Latham to make robocalls?
I am not sure why people live in Australia when they obviously think that Putin’s Russia is better than Xanadu and Shangri-La put together ??????? ……
daretotread. @ #207 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 3:30 pm
1. Yes, we’re both talking about that.
2. Hard to ask them (and expect a truthful answer) after they’ve had Russian soldiers all up in their business. Also I’d think everyone else in Ukraine is entitled to a say in the matter.
3. So? Germany was careful to not invade some places for awhile, too. And it taught the world a lesson about why you don’t appease assholes who invade things by letting them keep those things and why “hey, at least I didn’t invade more” is not an example of restraint or contrition.
‘Mark Latham is the voice of One Nation’s robocall in Longman – attacking Bill Shorten. Call will be played next on @SkyNewsAust’
Yes C@tmomma, the article was pretty clear, but some have comprehension challenges. Clearly Ukraine was moving towards democratic reforms and closer ties to the EU, but Yanukovych at the last minute pulled out of the EU deal and signed a deal with Russia instead. That is what sparked the citizens’ uprising and lead to Yanukovych fleeing. The current government “signed the EU association agreement and agreed to reform the country’s judiciary and political systems, as well as its financial and economic policies.” Sounds a lot more like a liberal democracy compared to what Putin wanted.
Good afternoon all,
I do not think that Mark Latham spruking for ON will do labor any harm at all especially in a robo call. Who is Mark Latham and why is he ringing me ?
The MSM, of course, will love it because Latham will give them some noise to report. But, Latham is a loose cannon, comes across as the grub he is and it is very informative that ON are going personal at this point.
Latham has hated Shorten since the 2004 election. He is just being a grub. We should also remember he targeted Gillard in 2010 as well.
Let it rip. I would not be surprised if Hanson comes to regret her choice.
Cheers.
Cameron @ #202 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 3:43 pm
Cameron
Ukraine has achieved none of its supposed reforms and is an economic basket case still.
Of course you do realise that Victoria Nuland and other members of the US diplomatic team are on tape supporting the street marches and “revolution”. Now that seems to constitute interference in another nation’s electoral affairs. Just a tad more than a few facebook posts but hey they are our fascist revolutionaries. We love em.
A fresh example of the Russian governments stifling of press freedom and media independence.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. State Department accused Moscow of stifling press freedom and media independence on Friday after a Russian court fined the U.S. government-sponsored Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty for violating Russia’s “foreign agent” law.
RFE/RL said the court found it guilty on Thursday of not complying fully with Moscow’s foreign agent law and fined it 100,000 rubles ($1,585), which the broadcaster described as the latest step in a campaign against its operations.
“The Russian government continues to stifle press freedom and media independence,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement. “We condemn the selective targeting of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and Voice of America under Russia’s law on ‘foreign agent’ media outlets.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-media-censorship/u-s-accuses-russia-of-stifling-press-freedom-after-court-fines-radio-idUSKBN1JW34L
DTT,
More distractions, obfuscations and red herrings.
You know things are bad for the GOP when the pro-Democrat protestors are active in Kentucky:
Yeah, well, Kentucky benefited greatly from Obamacare, and people there noticed.
Or so says my mate from Kentucky.
Had to laugh at this comment on the Guardian article “Whose side is Trump’s America on?”.
D
Latham: the man who climbed the ladder of opportunity down into the sewers.
Channel 7 must be so proud of itself! 🙁
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/jul/09/channel-sevens-african-gangs-beat-up-prompts-fear-among-african-australians
It’s hard to know with Latham if his failure as opposition leader tipped him over the edge, or if he was over the edge already, and would have ended up as the country’s worst PM ever.
Boerwar says: Monday, July 9, 2018 at 3:59 pm
Latham: the man who climbed the ladder of opportunity down into the sewers.
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Latham and Hanson – if you want to know something about a persons character – see who they associate with
ph
Worse and worser.
DTT
I’m back in the USSR
Don’t know how lucky I am
Leave the West behind
Georgia’s always on my mind
I’m back in the USSR
Now just as an example of how NOT to assume everything a government says is true, I suggest you follow the Thai rescue closely. The journos seem a little silly.
First let me state I am in no sense objecting to what they are doing. It is wise and sensible although our papazzi may think otherwise.
However just about every bit of info given to journos is deliberately calculated to mislead, not for any impoper motives but to avoid raising false hopes or upsetting families.
So they obscure the timelines, they are not forthcoming about the names of the rescued kids and do not even tell their families which kids are out.
Thus they told the jounos that rescue had not started wheras they have ambulances and helicipters waiting suggesting that the rescue attempt started hours before.
Good luck to them I say but for heavens sake when reading any media put out by a government source read between the lines and use your noggins.
Boerwar says: Monday, July 9, 2018 at 4:08 pm
ph
Worse and worser.
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Yeah Boerwar – Dumb and Dumber ……..but all too sadly Hanson has A VOTE …… so one person dumber than dogshit actually runs this country at times because our PM is such a spineless wimp to not publically disendorse her or her vote ….
DTT reckons the hacking of the 2016 US election, cyber warfare, propaganda, fake news, disinformation etc is just down to ‘pimply kids in a basement’, has played down the corruption of Putin and his oligarchs, the murder of Nemstov and dozens of journalists, Russia’s involvement in Brexit (evidence emerging of this by the day in the UK), denies there is much wrong with Russia annexing Crimea, denies suppression of opposition and press freedom, denies Russia is behind the Novichok poisonings (Britain has located the town south of Russia where it was made) and equates Putin murdering journalists and opposition figures to unrelated random mafia hits elsewhere in the world .
Yet DTT also claims Hillary and Bill Clinton are murderers, still believes the Seth Rich conspiracy theory (that Fox News got caught lying about and Rich’s parents are suing Fox News for), reckons Russia state media is the same as the ABC and BBC. DTT is also a Trump and Putin apologist and yet laughably decries fascism.
Barney in Go Dau @ #222 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 4:03 pm
The only thing to come out of that is that Ch7 is a racist organisation and should be avoided.
We are not a very tolerant or inclusive country.
We’ve seen Turnbull promoting fear and division in relation to ‘African gangs’, has Bill Shorten said anything today to counter Ch7’s racist agenda ?
So, the chat about Braddon is dying in the bum.
The Greens/Liberal pro-Albanese colluders are now crossing their fingers that maybe Longman will fall.
The old guilt by association can be applied to anyone, including Shorten.
Shorten was best man at the wedding of his close friend John Roskam, executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-the-shapeshifter-20150616-ghowjg.html
Please allow me the indulgence of posting this bit from ‘The Russia H0use’ again. It is bang on topic:
Here is a wonderful excerpt from “The Russia House” of an exchange between Barley, a dishevelled London publisher who frequents Russia to sell literature, and Walter, a British Intelligence officer.
Yet Barley remained compliant in the face of this renewed onslaught. ‘I said I believed in Gorbachov,’ he said equably, giving himself a sip of water. ‘They mightn’t, I did. I said the West’s job was to find the other half of him, and the East’s was to recognise the importance of the half they had. I said that if the Americans had ever bothered as much about disarmament as they had about putting some fool on the moon or pink stripes into toothpaste, we’d have had disarmament long ago. I said the West’s greatest sin was to believe we could bankrupt the Soviet system by raising and bidding on the arms race, because that way we were gambling with the fate of mankind. I said that by shaking our sabres the West had given the Soviet leaders the excuse to keep their gates locked and run a garrison state.’
Walter let out a whinnying laugh and cupped his gappy teeth with his hairless hand. ‘Oh my Lord!’ So WE’RE to blame for Russia’s ills. Oh, and I think that’s MARVELLOUSLY rich! You don’t think by any chance they did it to themselves, for instance? Locked themselves up inside their own paranoia? No, he doesn’t, I can see.’
Chortle.
Boerwar @ #232 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 4:25 pm
Bowen is the one to watch.
Pegasus @ #233 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 4:26 pm
Wow, I didn’t know that…
#Braddon ReachTEL by @TheAusInstitute (Tas) Whiteley (Lib) 42.9 Keay (ALP) 36.3 Garland 8 Green 4.4 SFF 1.7 APP 0.4 Und 6.2. LDP and Gibbons not included. No 2PP released, my estimate 50.5-49.5 to Whiteley. #Politas
3:38pm · 9 Jul 2018 · TweetDeck
Latham’s robocall:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/mark-latham-does-robocalls-for-pauline-hanson-in-longman-byelection-campaign-20180709-p4zqfs.html
Barney@3:19pm
I have a strong suspicion that some in LNP want something like that.
Shorten and Roksam went to school together.
I guess only Green trolls dump their school friends.
jenauthor,
Wow, that Braddon 2PP estimate is a lot closer than I thought. Pretty good news.
Cameron @ #241 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 4:35 pm
Good news for who…?
DTT
This is a bit rich from someone that was happy to line up with the white supremacists, the Alt-Right and the KKK to argue for the election of Trump.
How many here listen to robocalls longer than I did before land line phone ditched ? You have about 3-4 seconds to beat.
Personally I think you would have to already be ‘sold on the product’ to listen to an uninvited phone call from a “record player”.
Rex,
Good news for Labor and Bill Shorten of course.
Pegasus @ #208 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 4:26 pm
I see the Green grubs are back.
Still no apology for blackguarding Bill Shorten wrt S H-Y, Pegasus?
How about some snark, sniping or condescension instead? You know you wanna. 🙂
Jolyon Wagg @ #218 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 4:37 pm
And when they came for the Bludgers, dtt let them know where we lived. 🙂
You are truly hilarious Rex. “Albo Albo ALBO!!!!” A week ago.
Now that has died in the arse it’s “Bowen!”
Predictable trolling is quite unbecoming