Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Both parties up on the primary vote in the latest Essential poll, which concurs with Newspoll in finding Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings edging upwards and Bill Shorten’s edging down.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 52-48, and The Guardian report provides full primary votes for a change: both major parties are up two, the Coalition to 40% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation down one to 6%, with the “others” vote presumably well down. Also featured are Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which tell a remarkably similar story to Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval is up one to 43%, his best result since March 2016, and his disapproval is down two to 40%, his best since the eve of the July 2016 election; while Bill Shorten is respectively down two to 31% and up one to 47%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out to 42-25, compared with 41-27 last time.

The Essential poll also finds only 15% of respondents expect the government’s national energy guarantee will reduce power prices, compared with 22% for increasing them (down nine since the same question was asked last October) and 38% for making no difference (up seven). The government’s proposed tax cuts for big companies have 41% support, up four on a month or so ago, with 36% opposed, down one. Further on company tax cuts, The Australian has a comprehensive set of further results from the weekend’s Newspoll, which find respondents tending to be persuaded that the cuts will be good for employment (50% responded cuts would create more jobs versus 36% who said they would not, and 43% believed repealing them would put jobs at risk versus 37% saying they would not), yet 52% supported Bill Shorten saying cuts for businesses with $10 million to $50 million turnover would be repeated if won office, versus only 37% opposed.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,074 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. “Did the caves flood after they went in, or something?”

    I think that’s what happened. After they went in, heavy rain flooded the caves, which is a pretty normal occurrence in the Monsoon season there.

  2. ‘a r says:
    Friday, July 6, 2018 at 1:43 pm

    Holden Hillbilly @ #1846 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 1:35 pm

    BTW the soccer coach who took the boys so far in there must be an idiot.

    That’s actually my question. How did they get so far into the cave that rescuers can only reach them using scuba gear, without using any scuba gear?

    Did the caves flood after they went in, or something?’

    Yep.

  3. Hanson flip-flops again (or were the MSM telling porkies a few days ago?)

    Pauline Hanson says One Nation won’t be directing preferences to either Labor or the Liberals in the Longman by-election.

    Preferences from the minor party will be key to winning the July 28 by-election in the Brisbane seat, being recontested by Labor’s Susan Lamb who was forced to resign over her dual citizenship.

    Senator Hanson released a video in which she talked down suggestions her party would favour the Liberals’ Trevor Ruthenberg, who is campaigning with Malcolm Turnbull in the seat on Friday.

    “The political parties are putting out there that One Nation are directing our preferences to the Liberal Party or we are directing our preferences to the Labor party – that’s not true,” she said, in a direct message to voters.

    “You own your preferences, not the political parties.”

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/no-direction-on-preferences-hanson/news-story/79e0d5afc83ee5cd4c4a7d608892cdf0

  4. a r,

    Yes, the caves flooded after they went in. There are signs warning not to enter the caves during the rainy season, because of the danger of sudden flooding. The rainy season supposedly starts in July, a few days after they entered.

  5. “Letters supporting continuation of The Checkout should go to ABC MD Michelle Guthrie, ABC Board Chair Justin Milne, @billshortenmp & anyone else who will listen. Checkout is a public service which can not exist without a non-commecial broadcaster, simple as that.”

    I assume that Malcolm is not one of those that will listen.

  6. “ANZ now has about 640 branches, but all banks face calls from analysts to close branches as a way of cutting costs and relieving a squeeze on profit margins”

    No doubt the sight of empty former sites of bank branches impacts

    As does the proposal to reward these banks with tax cuts

    Tax cuts they will deploy to business expansion and wages growth for the employees they employ (if not retrenched in persuit of improved profit margins

    “Approval is sought to accelerate closures resulting in Australian branch network of” (blank) “ branches by 30 September 2019”

  7. Nicko… “The problem with the Liberal party is they are slowly being replaced with IPA bots.”

    I’m thinking some cartoonist should start making cartoons sort of the opposite of the Zanetti cartoons – instead of a CFMEU thug following Shorten everywhere, have an IPA stooge following Turnbull

  8. Cat…”You would think that someone with so much spare time on their hands would see fit to cut and paste some anti Coalition government articles from time to time. Instead of angling for a sympathy vote so they can continue to post anti Labor material.”

    The reality is, when you’re on such a intensely tunnel-visioned labor party echo chamber such as this forum, anyone who is even remotely objective instinctively feels the need to play devils advocate and almost duty bound to contribute the alternative view.

  9. I think Pegasus can be a bit one-sided and two-dimensional when it comes to criticisms of Labor, but its hardly a unique feature of commenters on PB and if you’re going to criticise Pegasus for that then I think you ought to reflect on whether you commit the same sins first. I also think it’s perfectly reasonable to reflect on someone’s career when they retire, good and bad – even, dare I say, after they’ve died. In fact, one of my first introductions to the hypocrisy of the Free Speech Brigade was the uproar over the Chaser’s skit “Everyone’s a Good Bloke Once Your Dead”. I would like to think Labor is bigger than criticism and learns from its mistakes. The Greens certainly can’t and neither can the Coalition

    I do also get the frustration as well; balance in the view of many media outlets means issues are divided into “left” and “right” which in practical reality means a Coalition person and a Green person both attacking Labor’s position from either side. “Balance” means that no matter how abjectly rubbish a Coalition policy is (a Carbon price is “socialism” but nationalising a power station because the Government doesn’t like what they’re saying is fine…) they have to criticise Labor as well. It gives me the irrits daily. However, I don’t think that gives you the right to personally attack someone for disagreeing. Deal with the issues.

  10. Big A Adrian: ‘The reality is, when you’re on such a intensely tunnel-visioned labor party echo chamber such as this forum, anyone who is even remotely objective instinctively feels the need to play devils advocate and almost duty bound to contribute the alternative view.’

    That is your view.

    My view is they are Liberal stooges who pose as Greens to bash Labor and make Greens look rediculous.

    Don’t you think it is strange their ‘alternative view’ always (except for one I post) supports the Liberals?

  11. Seeing on the news they’ve released the identity of the (white male) murderer of the two teenagers.

    I wonder how long before we start getting the standard “he was really a great bloke, can’t believe this happened” whitewashing of his crime.

  12. Lib Dems in top spot, and Labor ahead of Liberals is a good outcome for Labor. They get the donkey vote, and the ‘voted for the lib dems, thinking they were the liberals, then donkey voted the rest’vote.

    Plus the Liberals have ended up tarred with the one nation brush in the Senate recently, without even getting a “preference the sitting members last” deal from ON.

    All helpful for Labor’s odds, I would guess.

  13. I think we can improve things by making mandatory reporting of firearm ownership an element of the forms filed in Family Court proceedings.

  14. sustainable future,
    Not wanting to rain all over your detailed reply at 1.40pm, but this is the latest out of the NSW Government Upper House Committee wrt Waste to Energy generation, and other recycling matters:

    Another key concern for stakeholders was the role of energy from waste technologies in New South Wales. Inquiry participants debated whether there was a place for energy from waste facilities in managing residual waste once higher order waste management techniques have already been exhausted, and whether the NSW Energy from Waste Policy Statement is sufficiently robust. Ultimately, the committee supports energy from waste in some circumstances, and has made a number of recommendations aimed at strengthening the regulatory framework for such facilities, including that an expert advisory body chaired by the Chief Scientist examine and report on these issues.
    However, the committee does not support the proposal by The Next Generation for an energy from waste facility at Eastern Creek. Many stakeholders, including the NSW EPA and NSW Health, expressed significant concerns about the project, particularly the uncertainty around the risks it may pose to human health and the environment. The committee has therefore recommended that, subject to the current assessment process being conducted by the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, the NSW Government not approve the energy from waste facility proposed by The Next Generation at Eastern Creek. The reason for the dichotomy in this thought is that there is a live development assessment in play and it is not for the committee to interrupt this legal process.
    However, we still felt compelled to put our view forward based on the evidence received by the committee.

    https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/committees/DBAssets/InquiryReport/ReportAcrobat/6146/Final%20-%20Report%2028%20March%202018.pdf

  15. PB:

    My view is they are Liberal stooges who pose as Greens to bash Labor and make Greens look rediculous.

    A more parsimonious explanation is that these Greens posters really are who they, and others, say they are. Of course, those two perspectives aren’t the same.

  16. Peebee.. “My view is they are Liberal stooges who pose as Greens to bash Labor and make Greens look rediculous.”

    Whereas many of the most active contributors here are actual labor stooges – and thats not a conspiracy theory, they proudly tell us they are in the labor party and campaign for them.

    “Don’t you think it is strange their ‘alternative view’ always (except for one I post) supports the Liberals?”

    Erm no. Name any of the ‘true believer’ regulars here – cat, lizzie, confessions, steve777 etc etc – have they *EVER* posted anything critical of the labor party? An “alternative view” is obviously one thats not cow-towing to this “Dear leader Bill can do no wrong” holy writ. – One that gives an “alternative” to the tired old echo chamber labor party propaganda we see here day in day out.

  17. Observer

    Commbank recently closed a small branch at a medium sized shopping centre in Canberra and a sign directs customers to the licensed Post Office for some services. Income for the Post Office but a loss of face to face customer service.

    I was at a larger Commbank branch today to deposit some cash onto my credit card (my only remaining Commbank account). There is an amazing array of ATM machines (including the infamous deposit ATMs) that must have cost the bank a fortune to install and maintain. Luckily they are no longer hassling customers to use the deposit ATMs but seem to operate with a minimal number of staff.

    Branches of other banks I have seen (Westpac, NAB, BeyondBank, St George) have also cut staff to a minimum but they don’t seem to have invested in the multitude of ATM types that Commbank has. One effect of cutting staff I’ve noticed is that the banks have a lot of ’empty’ space on the premises or they have downsized the floor area.

    In the other direction, some of the newer (and smaller) banks have established shopfronts, presumably to try and capture custom from the Big 4.

  18. Big A Adrian @ #1859 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 2:14 pm

    Cat…”You would think that someone with so much spare time on their hands would see fit to cut and paste some anti Coalition government articles from time to time. Instead of angling for a sympathy vote so they can continue to post anti Labor material.”

    The reality is, when you’re on such a intensely tunnel-visioned labor party echo chamber such as this forum, anyone who is even remotely objective instinctively feels the need to play devils advocate and almost duty bound to contribute the alternative view.

    I try and be both echo chamber and useful unbiased contributor. 🙂

  19. Big A Adrian

    Hey, don’t mark me down as a Labor stooge, just because I loathe the Coalition. Considering how much environmental material I post, you might as easily say I’m a Green stooge.

  20. On the Longman ballot paper there is a party with an abbreviation “Labour DLP”. How could the AEC allow this?

  21. Cud Chewer not logged in @ #1877 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 11:40 am

    Who the heck are the Australian Peoples Party?

    Shades of the Popular Peoples Front of Judea.

    I think they forgot “White” somewhere.

    Australian People’s Party

    The Australian People’s Party is a registered political party in Australia. It was registered by the Australian Electoral Commission in March 2017. It was formed in 2014 by former lawyer and teacher Gabriel Harfouche, a year after running as a Palmer United Party candidate in the Division of Perth at the 2013 federal election. The party says its aim is to improve standards of living and rights for all Australians. The party is pro-gun, pro-nationalisation and pro-protectionist.

    The party is running candidates in all five of the federal by-elections occurring on 28 July 2018.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_People%27s_Party

  22. Big A Adrian, ‘Whereas many of the most active contributors here are actual labor stooges – and thats not a conspiracy theory, they proudly tell us they are in the labor party and campaign for them.’

    Well I don’t they are stooges as they are not pretending to be something they are not. They also act and say as you would expect as Labor supporters.

    The Greens bag Labor, don’t bag Liberals and say very little about the party they are supposedly supporting. That is what makes me think they are Liberal stooges.

    The Liberals would like nothing better than to see the Greens critercise Labor. They are doing their dirty work for them and at the same time sullying the Green brand. Hence there would be an incentive for the Liberals to pretend to be Green and then bag Labor.

  23. Big A Adrian

    Well, you could remove lizzie from the list from the start. Not only is she not a Labor party member, but she also posted a criticism of Jenny Macklin today.

    I wonder why she got less blowback then peg did??

    Answering my rhetorical question: because she is a more ‘balanced’ poster than peg.

  24. Labor had the donkey vote in Longman 2016. Having it again is status quo but much better than the loss of donkey vote which would have wiped out the 2016 winning margin before starting.

  25. Lizzie, you are no stooge. I, like you, am very concerned about the environment and that is why I despise the Coalition (along with stuffing up the NBN).

    Given a choice of stuffing the environment or supporting it, the Coalation will always chose wrecking it. They may occassionally produce a fig leaf to cover their approach. This is money going to mates to do something environmental but has no effect on the environment. I’m thinking of paying farmers to NOT clear land (at least for a short time anyway).

    Yet the Greens posters on here have NEVER bash the Coalition on their environmental record.

    They continually bash Labor and despite being Green, don’t seem to be worried about the damage to the environment the Coalition is doing.

  26. Jim Saleam should peel off a few votes from OneNation..

    Biography Edit

    Saleam co-founded National Action (NA) on Anzac Day, 1982, having been a member of the short-lived National Socialist Party of Australia as a teenager during the 1970s.[5] National Action eventually imploded due to Saleam’s criminal actions which included property offences and fraud in 1984[6] and for organising a shotgun attack in 1989 on African National Congress representative Eddie Funde by two NA members.[7] Saleam served jail terms for both crimes.[2] He pleaded not guilty to both charges, claiming that he was set up by police.[7] This claim was rejected by the courts and Saleam maintained his innocence.

    Saleam has acted as a mentor for the Patriotic Youth League and was the Secretary of the Sydney branch of the Australia First Party (AFP) between 2002 and 2007. In August 2007, he was expelled from the party by AFP president Diane Teasdale and later established Australia First (NSW) as a separate entity and incorporated the AFP NSW membership into the new party with himself as the party chairman. He is also the co-organiser along with Welf Herfurth, of the Sydney Forum, a right wing conference that is held annually in Sydney.[citation needed]

    Saleam is divorced[1] with two children.[6]

    Saleam is a white nationalist, and has been a strong advocate of barring further immigration to preserve a “predominantly white nation resistant to… watering-down of its culture”.[7]

  27. Big A Adrian @ #1854 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 2:07 pm

    Nicko… “The problem with the Liberal party is they are slowly being replaced with IPA bots.”

    I’m thinking some cartoonist should start making cartoons sort of the opposite of the Zanetti cartoons – instead of a CFMEU thug following Shorten everywhere, have an IPA stooge following Turnbull

    BAA

    Only SOME of the LNP are IPA bots. The rests are fascists or members of the Christian taleban. –

  28. “The rainy season supposedly starts in July, a few days after they entered.”

    Surely they checked the weather forecast beforehand – if not then the responsible person is culpable, but maybe not formally in Thailand.

  29. booleanbach @ #1887 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 12:09 pm

    “The rainy season supposedly starts in July, a few days after they entered.”

    Surely they checked the weather forecast beforehand – if not then the responsible person is culpable, but maybe not formally in Thailand.

    As we know in Australia with flash floods, it normally isn’t raining where you are, also I somehow doubt they were planning on staying very long.

  30. And in a classic Friday afternoon ‘putting out the garbage’, the Queensland LNP are the gift that keeps on giving!

    BREAKING sources tell me Senators Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan have lost positions 1 & 2 at LNP pre selection. Meaning, they’ll be in unwillable positions come the election @SkyNewsAust

  31. I note the cultist Lyle Shelton out there today attempting to exploit the tragedy in West Pennant Hills for his own extreme agenda. Hideous creature.

  32. sprocket_ @ #1890 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 3:37 pm

    And in a classic Friday afternoon ‘putting out the garbage’, the Queensland LNP are the gift that keeps on giving!

    BREAKING sources tell me Senators Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan have lost positions 1 & 2 at LNP pre selection. Meaning, they’ll be in unwillable positions come the election @SkyNewsAust

    Speaking of hideous creatures… I welcome their impending exclusion from parliament.

  33. sprocket_ @ #1891 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 3:37 pm

    And in a classic Friday afternoon ‘putting out the garbage’, the Queensland LNP are the gift that keeps on giving!

    BREAKING sources tell me Senators Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan have lost positions 1 & 2 at LNP pre selection. Meaning, they’ll be in unwillable positions come the election @SkyNewsAust

    If only Tasmania would do the same to Abetz.

  34. sprocket_ @ #1891 Friday, July 6th, 2018 – 12:37 pm

    And in a classic Friday afternoon ‘putting out the garbage’, the Queensland LNP are the gift that keeps on giving!

    BREAKING sources tell me Senators Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan have lost positions 1 & 2 at LNP pre selection. Meaning, they’ll be in unwillable positions come the election @SkyNewsAust

    Only problem is what have they replaced them with?

    Brandis’ replacement was a step backwards.

    Who are the two new ones they’ve found?

  35. Hunter Warrior

    On the Longman ballot paper there is a party with an abbreviation “Labour DLP”. How could the AEC allow this?

    Antony Green has a twitter thread on this:

    With its new registered abbreviation, it looks like the Democratic Labour Party is trying to copy the success of the Liberal Democrats in capturing the votes of electors who were looking for different party with a similar name. #auspol

    (sorry, don’t know how to link to this)

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